• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.87-93
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• 2009

The labyrinth weir can be defined that the plane shape of overflow part is not straight line and is a kind of weir having overflow length increased by changing its plane shape. Recently, the labyrinth weir can be widely applied to various hydraulic facilities such as dam spillway, irrigation facilities, and canal structures by increasing precipitation. This study was performed to analyze the hydraulic characteristics according to triangle labyrinth weir using hydraulic model experiments and finally estimate the discharge coefficients for triangle labyrinth weirs. The formulae of discharge coefficient provided in this study, which make it feasible to calculate the overflow rate by a coefficient of correlation. sum of residuals, MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error), are expected to be widely applied to design of hydraulic facilities such as dam spillway and irrigation system.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1053-1061
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose the time series forecasting models for internet traffic with long memory and heteroscedasticity. To control and forecast traffic volume, we first introduce the traffic forecasting models which are determined by the volatility and heteroscedasticity of the traffic. We then analyze and predict the heteroscedasticity and the long memory properties for forecasting traffic volume. Depending on the characteristics of the traffic, Fractional ARIMA model, Fractional ARIMA-GARCH model are applied and compared with the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) Criterion.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.531-545
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to develop a prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass applied in concrete by analyzing a series of laboratory test results, which were obtained in our previous study. The hyperbolic function was used to perform the nonlinear-multivariate regression analysis of the compressive strength prediction model with the following parameters: water-binder ratio w/b, curing age t, and waste glass content G. According to the relative regression analysis, the compressive strength prediction model is developed. The calculated results are in accord with the laboratory measured data, which are the concrete compressive strengths of different mix proportions. In addition, a coefficient of determination $R^2$ value between 0.93 and 0.96 and a mean absolute percentage error MAPE between 5.4% and 8.4% were obtained by regression analysis using the predicted compressive analysis value, and the test results are also excellent. Therefore, the predicted results for compressive strength are highly accurate for waste LCD glass applied in concrete. Additionally, this predicted model exhibits a good predictive capacity when employed to calculate the compressive strength of washed glass sand concrete.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.100 no.1
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• pp.124-130
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• 2011

This study was conducted to find out appropriate model and forecast visit demand of korea national parks using seasonal ARIMA model. Data of monthly visitors uses of 18 korea national parks from January, 2003 to December, 2010 was used to analyze. The result showed that $ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)_{12}$ model was selected as a appropriate model to forecast visit demand of korea national parks and the result of post evaluation used by index of mean absolute percentage error was accurate. Therefore, the result of this study will enhance reliability and validity of forecasting technique and contribute to management strategy of korea national park.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.531-536
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• 2022

In order to efficeintly manage a battery, it is important to accurately estimate and manage the SOH(State of Health) and RUL(Remaining Useful Life) of the batteries. Even if the batteries are of the same type, the characteristics such as facility capacity and voltage are different, and when the battery for the training model and the battery for prediction through the model are different, there is a limit to measuring the accuracy. In this paper, We proposed the entropy index using voltage distribution and discharge time is generalized, and four batteries are defined as a training set and a test set alternately one by one to predict the health status of batteries through linear regression analysis of machine learning. The proposed method showed a high accuracy of more than 95% using the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error).

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.121-133
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• 2023

The demand for cement and limestone crushed materials has increased many folds due to the tremendous increase in construction activities in Pakistan during the past few decades. The number of cement production industries has increased correspondingly, and so the rock-blasting operations at the limestone quarry sites. However, the safety procedures warranted at these sites for the blast-induced ground vibrations (BIGV) have not been adequately developed and/or implemented. Proper prediction and monitoring of BIGV are necessary to ensure the safety of structures in the vicinity of these quarry sites. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict BIGV using artificial neural network (ANN) at three selected limestone quarries of Pakistan. The ANN has been developed in Python using Keras with sequential model and dense layers. The hyper parameters and neurons in each of the activation layers has been optimized using randomized and grid search method. The input parameters for the model include distance, a maximum charge per delay (MCPD), depth of hole, burden, spacing, and number of blast holes, whereas, peak particle velocity (PPV) is taken as the only output parameter. A total of 110 blast vibrations datasets were recorded from three different limestone quarries. The dataset has been divided into 85% for neural network training, and 15% for testing of the network. A five-layer ANN is trained with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, Adam optimization algorithm with a learning rate of 0.001, and batch size of 32 with the topology of 6-32-32-256-1. The blast datasets were utilized to compare the performance of ANN, multivariate regression analysis (MVRA), and empirical predictors. The performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE)for predicted and measured PPV. To determine the relative influence of each parameter on the PPV, sensitivity analyses were performed for all input parameters. The analyses reveal that ANN performs superior than MVRA and other empirical predictors, andthat83% PPV is affected by distance and MCPD while hole depth, number of blast holes, burden and spacing contribute for the remaining 17%. This research provides valuable insights into improving safety measures and ensuring the structural integrity of buildings near limestone quarry sites.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.193-203
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• 2016

This paper forecasts electricity demand as a critical element of a demand management system in Smart Grid environment. We present a prediction method of using a combination of predictive values by time series clustering. Periodogram-based normalized clustering, predictive analysis clustering and dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering are proposed for time series clustering methods. Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW), Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), Fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) are used for demand forecasting based on clustering. Results show that the time series clustering method provides a better performances than the method using total amount of electricity demand in terms of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.633-650
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• 2013

All the imputation techniques proposed so far in literature for data imputation are offline techniques as they require a number of iterations to learn the characteristics of data during training and they also consume a lot of computational time. Hence, these techniques are not suitable for applications that require the imputation to be performed on demand and near real-time. The paper proposes a computational intelligence based architecture for online data imputation and extended versions of an existing offline data imputation method as well. The proposed online imputation technique has 2 stages. In stage 1, Evolving Clustering Method (ECM) is used to replace the missing values with cluster centers, as part of the local learning strategy. Stage 2 refines the resultant approximate values using a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) as part of the global approximation strategy. We also propose extended versions of an existing offline imputation technique. The offline imputation techniques employ K-Means or K-Medoids and Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP)or GRNN in Stage-1and Stage-2respectively. Several experiments were conducted on 8benchmark datasets and 4 bank related datasets to assess the effectiveness of the proposed online and offline imputation techniques. In terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the results indicate that the difference between the proposed best offline imputation method viz., K-Medoids+GRNN and the proposed online imputation method viz., ECM+GRNN is statistically insignificant at a 1% level of significance. Consequently, the proposed online technique, being less expensive and faster, can be employed for imputation instead of the existing and proposed offline imputation techniques. This is the significant outcome of the study. Furthermore, GRNN in stage-2 uniformly reduced MAPE values in both offline and online imputation methods on all datasets.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.28 no.9
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• pp.355-360
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• 2016

Continuing to the modeling of heating load, this paper, as the second part of consecutive works, presents LS-SVM (least square support vector machine) based model of winter time apartment hot water supply load in a district heating system, so as to be used in prediction of heating energy usage. Similar, but more severely, to heating load, hot water supply load varies in highly nonlinear manner. Such nonlinearity makes analytical model of it hardly exist in the literatures. LS-SVM is known as a good modeling tool for the system, especially for the nonlinear system depended by many independent factors. We collect 26,208 data of hot water supply load over a 13-week period in winter time, from 12 heat exchangers in seven different apartments. Then part of the collected data were used to construct LS-SVM based model and the rest of those were used to test the formed model accuracy. In modeling, we first constructed the model of district heating system's hot water supply load, using the unit heating area's hot water supply load of seven apartments. Such model will be used to estimate the total hot water supply load of which the district heating system needs to provide. Then the individual apartment hot water supply load model is also formed, which can be used to predict and to control the energy consumption of the individual apartment. The results obtained show that the total hot water supply load, which will be provided by the district heating system in winter time, can be predicted within 10% in MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). Also the individual apartment models can predict the individual apartment energy consumption for hot water supply load within 10% ~ 20% in MAPE.