• 천문학회보
• /
• 제38권2호
• /
• pp.33-33
• /
• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.295-302
• /
• 2004

Magnetic storms are almost always accompanied with substorms or substorm-like disturbances. Understanding the nature of the storm-time substorm is important for the currently critical issue of the storm-substorm relation. In this work we have done a statistical analysis in a straightforward way to see whether the storm-time substorms are preferably spontaneous or triggered. On the basis of 301 storm-time substorms selected for this work, we have found that the occurrence of about $28\%$ of them was spontaneous while only $6.5\%$ were associated with a clear trigger(s). The rest of the events were mostly associated with complex variations of IMF. The significant percentage for the spontaneous substorms implies that the possibility of finding a storm without a substorm is greatly reduced due to the spontaneous occurrence of the substorm even when the solar wind and IMF condition remains completely steady during the storm time.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제28권3호
• /
• pp.173-181
• /
• 2011

Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute researchers have installed and operated magnetometers at Mt. Bohyun Observatory to measure the Earth's magnetic field variations in South Korea. We, in 2007, installed a fluxgate magnetometer (RFP-523C) to measure H, D, and Z components of the geomagnetic field. In addition, in 2009, we installed a Overhauser proton sensor to measure the absolute total magnetic field F and a three-axis magneto-impedance sensor for spectrum analysis. Currently three types of magnetometer data have been accumulated. In this paper, we provide the preliminary and the first statistical analysis using the BOH magnetometer installed at Mt. Bohyun Observatory. By superposed analysis, we find that daily variations of H, D, and Z shows similar tendency, that is, about 30 minutes before the meridian (11:28) a minimum appears and the time after about 3 hours and 30 minutes (15:28) a maximum appears. Also, a quiet interval start time (19:06) is near the sunset time, and a quiet interval end time (06:40) is near the sunrise time. From the sunset to the sunrise, the value of H has a nearly constant interval, that is, the sun affects the changes in H values. Seasonal variations show similar dependences to the sun. Local time variations show that noon region has the biggest variations and midnight region has the smallest variations. We compare the correlations between geomagnetic variations and activity indices as we expect the geomagnetic variation would contain the effects of geomagnetic activity variations. As a result, the correlation coefficient between H and Dst is the highest (r = 0.947), and other AL, AE, AU index and showed a high correlation. Therefore, the effects of geomagnetic storms and geomagnetic substorms might contribute to the geomagnetic changes significantly.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제25권2호
• /
• pp.129-138
• /
• 2008

This study attempts to show how the geomagnetic indices, AU, AL and Dst, respond to the interplanetary parameters, more specifically, the solar wind electric field VBz during southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) period. The AU index does not seem to respond linearly to the variation of southward IMF. Only a noticeable correlation between the AU and VBz is shown during summer, when the ionospheric conductivity associated with the solar EUV radiation is high. It is highly likely that the effect of electric field on the eastward electrojet intensification is only noticeable whenever the ionospheric conductivity is significantly enhanced during summer. Thus, one should be very cautious in employing the AU as a convection index during other seasons. The AL index shows a significantly high correlation with VBz regardless of season. Considering that the auroral electrojet is the combined result of electric field and ionospheric conductivity, the intensification of these two quantities seems to occur concurrently during southward IMF period. This suggests that the AL index behaves more like a convection index rather than a substorm index as far as hourly mean AL index is concerned. Contrary to the AU index, the AL index does not register the maximum value during summer for a given level of VBz. It has something to do with the findings that discrete auroras are suppressed in sunlight hemisphere (Newell et al. 1996), thus reducing the ionospheric conductivity during summer. As expected, the Dst index tends to become more negative as VBz gets intensified. However, the Dst index (nT) is less than or equal to 15VBz(mV/m) + 50(Bz < 0). It indicates that VBz determines the lower limit of the storm size, while another factor(s), possibly substorm, seems to get further involved in intensifying storms. Although it has not been examined in this study, the duration of southward IMF would also be a factor to be considered in determining the size of a storm.

• 천문학논총
• /
• 제15권spc2호
• /
• pp.21-25
• /
• 2000

The ionosphere, the atmosphere of the earth ionized by solar radiations, has been strongly varied with solar activity. The ionosphere varies with the solar cycle, the seasons, the latitudes and during any given day. Radio wave propagation through or in the ionosphere is affected by ionospheric condition so that one needs to consider its effects on operating communication systems normally. For examples, sporadic E may form at any time. It occurs at altitudes between 90 to 140 km (in the E region), and may be spread over a large area or be confined to a small region. Sometimes the sporadic E layer works as a mirror so that the communication signal does not reach the receiver. And radiation from the Sun during large solar flares causes increased ionization in the D region which results in greater absorption of HF radio waves. This phenomenon is called short wave fade-outs. If the flare is large enough, the whole of the HF spectrum can be rendered unusable for a period of time. Due to events on the Sun, sometimes the Earth's magnetic field becomes disturbed. The geomagnetic field and the ionosphere are linked in complex ways and a disturbance in the geomagnetic field can often cause a disturbance in the F region of the ionosphere. An enhancement will not usually concern the HF communicator, but the depression may cause frequencies normally used for communication to be too high with the result that the wave penetrates the ionosphere. Ionospheric storms can occur throughout the solar cycle and are related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal holes on the Sun. Except the above mentioned phenomena, there are a lot of things to affect the radio communication. Nowadays, radio technique for probing the terrestrial ionosphere has a tendency to use satellite system such as GPS. To get more accurate information about the variation of the ionospheric electron density, a TEC measurement system is necessary so RRL will operate the system in the near future.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제38권2호
• /
• pp.94.2-94.2
• /
• 2013

We studied the precipitation of magnetospheric energetic electrons into the Earth's atmosphere during magnetic storm times using precipitating electron flux data from the MEPED on board the NOAA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) low.altitude satellite, NOAA-16. We identified a total of 84 storm events between 2001 and 2012 using SYM-H index. We have done a superposition of precipitating electron fluxes for each of three energy ranges (i.e., e1: > 30 keV, e2: > 100 keV, e3: > 300 keV) for the identified storm times. The results show that the fluxes start to increase before the main phase of storm for all energy ranges and reach a maximum level just before the time of SYM-H minimum value. The precipitation timescales are energy-dependent, being shorter for lower energy, ~4.67 hours for e1, ~7.93 hours for e2 and ~26.5 hours for e3. The precipitating fluxes decline during the recovery phase of the storms. We examined the L shell dependence of the precipitating electron flux during the main phase. We found that statistically the precipitation fluxes are dominantly seen at L of ~ 3-4 or higher. This L value roughly corresponds to the plasmapause location during the main phase. Thus the results imply that the electron precipitation mainly occurs outside of the plasmapause. In addition, we classified the storm events by their strength and examined the dependence of precipitation on storm intensity. We found that the electron precipitation occurs on a faster time scale and penetrate into inner L shell region for a stronger storm.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
• /
• 한국우주과학회 2011년도 한국우주과학회보 제20권1호
• /
• pp.26.3-27
• /
• 2011

Formation of a steep plasma density gradient in the middle-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms and the latitudinal migration of its location depending on the storm phase are suggested to be associated with the ionospheric signature of the plasmapause. We test this idea by using the satellite and ground observation data during the 11 April 2001 storm. The locations of the steep plasma density gradient identified by TOPEX/Poseidon (2001 LT) and DMSP (1800 and 2130 LT) satellites coincide with the ionospheric footprints of the plasmapause identified by the IMAGE satellite. This observation may support the dependence of the middle-latitude plasma density gradient location on the plasmapause motion, but does not explain why the steep density gradient whose morphology is largely different from the morphology of the middle-latitude ionization trough during quiet period is formed in association with the plasmapause. The ionospheric disturbances in the total electron content (TEC) maps shows that the steep TEC gradient is formed at the boundary of the positive ionospheric storm in low-middle latitudes and the negative ionospheric storm in middle-high latitudes. We interpret that the thermospheric neutral composition disturbance in the dayside is confined within the middle-high latitude ionospheric convection zone. The neutral composition latitudes and, therefore, the locations of the steep plasma density gradient coincide with the footprints of the plasmapause. The TEC maps show that the appearance of the steep plasma density gradient in the pre-midnight sector during the recovery phase is related to the co-rotation of the gradient that is created during the main phase.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.269-274
• /
• 2007

강한 지자기 폭풍이 발생하였을 때 한반도 상공의 전리층내 총전자수(TEC, Total Electron Contents) 변화를 분석하기 위해 GPS 기준국망을 데이터를 이용한 지역적인 전리층 감시모델을 개발하였다. 전리층 총전자수 감시모델 개발을 위해 한국천문연구원에서 운용중인 대전 IGS(International GNSS Service) 기준국을 포함한 전국에 고르게 분포하고 있는 9개의 GPS 기준국 데이터를 이용하였다. 또한 순간적인 전리층 변화 특성을 분석하기 위해 CSS(Cubic Spline Smoothing)기법을 적용하였고, 그 결과 2003년 11월 20일 강한 지자기 폭풍이 발생했을 때 한반도 상공에서 총전자수의 순간적인 변화를 검출할 수 있었다. 이때에는 평일과 비교했을 때 특정시각의 약 1.5배 이상 총전자수가 증가함을 보였다. 마지막으로 지구 자기장 활동 정도를 나타내는 Kp 지수, Dst 지수 그리고 천문연 GPS 기준국망 데이터를 이용해 산출된 총전자수 변화와의 연관성을 제시했다.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.27.2-27.2
• /
• 2010

We have studied the formation of coronal holes (CHs) associated with halo CMEs. For this study, we used multi-wavelength data from Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT), GOES Soft X-ray Imager (SXI), SOHO EIT 195 ${\AA}$, SOHO MDI magnetogram, MLSO He I 10830 ${\AA}$, and BBSO H-alpha. The CHs are characterized by open magentic field regions with low emission, density, and temperature and their open fields drive high speed solar winds which cause geomagnetic storms. So far, the formation and the evolution of CHs are not well understood. The formation of the dark region associated with the eruption of a CME is well known as "coronal dimming" which may be caused by the mass depletion near the CME footpoint. It is different from a typical CH since it persists for only one or two days. In this study, we present three cases that show the formation of coronal holes which are associated with three halo CMEs: 1) 2000 Jul 14, 2) 2003 Oct 28, 3) 2005 May 13. In the first case, hot plasma was ejected during a weak eruption and then filled out the pre-existing CH. After the halo CME occurred, the hot plasma region becomes a CH again. In the second and the third cases, we found newly formed CHs just after their associated CMEs. All three coronal holes are associated with strong flares and persist over 3 days until they disappeared by the solar rotation. Examining the MDI magnetograms, we found that the magnetic polarity of each CH region has one polarity. Based on these results, we suggest that the coronal holes can be formed by the CMEs and they should be distinguished from the coronal dimming.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
• /
• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
• /
• pp.36.3-37
• /
• 2009

This is an attempt to improve a formula to predict variations of geomagnetic storm indices (Dst) from solar wind parameters. A formula which is most widely accepted was given by Burton et al. (1975) over 30 years ago. Their formula is: dDst*/dt = Q(t) - Dst*(t)/$\tau$, where Q(t) is the Dst injection rate given by the convolution of dawn-to-dusk electric field generated by southward solar wind magnetic field and some response function. However, they did not clearly specify the response function. As a result, misunderstanding seems to be prevailing that the injection rate is proportional to the dawn-to-dusk electric field. In this study we tried to determine the response function by examining 12 intense geomagnetic storms with minimum Dst < -200 nT for which solar wind data are available. The method is as follows. First we assume the form of response function that is specified by several time constants, so that we can calculate the injection rate Q1(t) from the solar wind data. On the other hand, Burton et al. expression provide the observed injection rate Q2(t) = dDst*/dt + Dst*(t)/$\tau$. Thus, it is possible to determine the time constants of response function by a least-squares method to minimize the difference between Q1(t) and Q2(t). We have found this simple method successful enough to reproduce the observed Dst variations from the corresponding solar wind data. The present result provides a scheme to predict the development of Dst 30 minutes to 1 hour in advance by using the real time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft.