• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2004년도 제24회 동계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.83-107
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• 2004

This study investigates how and through which channels R&D activities influences the national economy, using a macro-econometric model. The macro-econometric model in this study includes 24 behavioral equations and 25 identities and was estimated using the annual data. From a simulation analysis, it is shown that the R&D investment has a permanent effect on real variables; lowering prices, wages and interest rates, and increasing potential and real GDP in the long run. It is noted that the national account was recalculated to avoid double-counting in estimation of R&D stocks.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.97-110
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• 1998

This paper tries to estimate Korea's import demand function for fisheries using cointegration analysis. The estimation function consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries(FTIW) and two independent variables-relative price(RP) between importable and domestic products and real income(GDP). As it has been empirically found out that almost all of time series of macro-variables such as GDP, price index are nonstationary, existing studies which ignore this fact need to be reexamined. Conventional econometric method can not analyze nonstationary time series in level. To perform the analysis, time series should be differenciated until stationarity is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the difference method removes the long run element of data, and so leads to difficulties of interpretation. But according to new developed econometric theory, cointegration approach could solve these problems. Therefore this paper proceeds the estimation on the basis of cointegration analysis, because the quartly variables from 1988 to 1997 used in the model is found out to be nonstationary. The estimation results show that all of the variables are statistically significant. Therefore Korea's import demand for fisheries has been strongly affected by the variation of real income and the relative price.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.1-39
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• 1995

본 연구는 에너지정책을 종합적 차원에서 일반경제정책과 병행하여 정량적으로 분석할 수 있는 수리모형 (numerical multi-sector general equilibrium model)을 개발하기 위하여 시도되었다. 모형은 크게 (i) 가격/기술변화 반응적인 투입-산출계수를 내생화한 "산업간 거래모형 (inter-industry production model)", (ii) 민간에 의한 최종부문 수요를 나다내는 "소비자 선택모형 (consumer choices model)", 그리고 (iii) 생산물시장과 본원적 투입요소시장, 수출입시장 등에서 민간기업 정부 및 해외라는 개별 경제주체간의 행태를 반영하는 "거시경제 (성장) 모형 (macro-econometric growth model)"으로 구성되어 있다. 이러한 방법은 분석경제를 충분히 세분하고 제(諸)경제변수들의 동시결정적 과정을 중시한 일반균형적 /부문적 접근방법 (general equilibrium/sectoral approaches)을 취함으로써 지금까지 단순한 거시경제모형(aggregate macroeconomic models)이나 전통적 산업연관모형 (static input-output models)에만 의존해 오던 경제예측이나 경제 및 에너지관련 정책의 효과분석이 한층 더 강화될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.207-215
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• 2021

The number of tourists visiting Nepal has shown rapid growth in recent years, and Nepal is expecting more tourist arrivals in the future. This paper, thus, attempts to analyze the tourist arrivals in Nepal and predict the number of visitors until 2025. This paper has examined the international tourist arrival trend in Nepal using the Gompertz and Logistic growth model. The international tourist arrival data from 1991 to 2018 is used to investigate international tourist arrival trends. The result of the analysis found that the Gompertz model performs a better fit than the Logistic model. The study further forecast the expected tourist arrival below one million (844,319) by 2025. Nevertheless, the government of Nepal has the goal of two million tourists in a year. The present study also discusses system dynamics scenarios for the two million potential visitors within a year. Scenario analysis shows that proper advertisement and positive word-of-mouth will be key factors in achieving a higher number of tourists. The current study could fill the gap of theoretical and empirical forecasting of tourist arrivals in the Nepalese tourism industry. Also, the study findings would be beneficial for government officers, planners and investors, and policy-makers in the Nepalese tourism industry.

• 한국인구학
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.257-289
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• 2002

담배가격은 담배소비를 조정하여 간접적으로 국민건강에 영향을 준다 이를 총계소비함수와 도시가계자료를 활용한 수요체계의 추정을 통하여 실증적으로 확인한 결과 담배가격의 수요탄력성은 국민일인당의 경우 -0.19, 18세이상 일인당의 경우 -0.176이다. 또 담배가격과 보건의료지출과의 교차가격 탄력성은 -0.2328로 추정되었다. 담배소비는 담배가격에 통계적으로 매우 유의하게 반응하여서 가격조절을 통한 소비억제정책이 효과적으로 작용할 수있음이 확인 되었고 담배가격인상이 국민건강을 증진시킨다는 주장의 실증적 근거가 확인되었다