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Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

Effects and Improvement of Carbon Reduction by Greenspace Establishment in Riparian Zones (수변구역 조성녹지의 탄소저감 효과 및 증진방안)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Park, Hye-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2015
  • This study quantified storage and annual uptake of carbon for riparian greenspaces established in watersheds of four major rivers in South Korea and explored desirable strategies to improve carbon reduction effects of riparian greenspaces. Greenspace structure and planting technique in the 40 study sites sampled were represented by single-layered planting of small trees in low density, with stem diameter at breast height of $6.9{\pm}0.2cm$ and planting density of $10.4{\pm}0.8trees/100m^2$ on average. Storage and annual uptake of carbon per unit area by planted trees averaged $8.2{\pm}0.5t/ha$ and $1.7{\pm}0.1t/ha/yr$, respectively, increasing as planting density got higher. Mean organic matter and carbon storage in soils were $1.4{\pm}0.1%$ and $26.4{\pm}1.5t/ha$, respectively. Planted trees and soils per ha stored the amount of carbon emitted from gasoline consumption of about 61 kL, and the trees per ha annually offset carbon emissions from gasoline use of about 3 kL. These carbon reduction effects are associated with tree growth over five years to fewer than 10 years after planting, and predicted to become much greater as the planted trees grow. This study simulated changes in annual carbon uptake by tree growth over future 30 years for typical planting models selected as different from the planting technique in the study sites. The simulation revealed that cumulative annual carbon uptake for a multilayered and grouped ecological planting model with both larger tree size and higher planting density was approximately 1.9 times greater 10 years after planting and 1.5 times greater 30 years after than that in the study sites. Strategies to improve carbon reduction effects of riparian greenspaces suggest multilayered and grouped planting mixed with relatively large trees, middle/high density planting of native species mixed with fast-growing trees, and securing the soil environment favorable for normal growth of planting tree species. The research findings are expected to be useful as practical guidelines to improve the role of a carbon uptake source, in addition to water quality conservation and wildlife inhabitation, in implementing riparian greenspace projects under the beginning stage.

A Comparative Study on the Electrophysiological Properties of Medial and Lateral Spinoreticular Tract Cells in Cats (고양이의 내측 및 외측 척수망상로 세포의 전기생리학적 비교연구)

  • Lee, Suk-Ho;Jun, Jae-Yeol;Park, Choon-Ok;Goo, Yong-Sook;Kim, Jun;Sung, Ho-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.181-194
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    • 1990
  • Antidromically activated spinoreticular tract (SRT) cell units in the lumbosacral enlargement of ${\alpha}-chloralose$ anesthetized cats were classified as medial and lateral SRT units according to the location of their axonal termination. Identified SRT units were tested fer antidromic conduction velocity, laterality of their axonal projection, the location in spinal gray, peripheral receptive field, the response pattern to graded mechanichal stimulation and the responsiveness to $A{\delta}$ and C volley of the peripheral nerve. 1) The 59% of 34 medial SRT units were recorded in ipsilateral side to the antidromic stimulation site, but 60% of the 47 lateral SRT units projected to contralateral side. 2) Most of the medial SRT cells and rostral ventrolateral medulla (RVLM)-projecting lateral SRT cells were recorded in lamina VII & VIII. The LRN (lateral reticular nucleus)-projecting SRT cells, however, distributed through all the laminae except superficial ones (I & II). 3) The identified SRT units were classified as low theshold (LT), deep, high threshold (HT), wide dynamic range (WDR) cells, based on the response patterns to graded mechanical stimuli. The proportion of SRT units which receive noxious input was 37.5%, 25% and 75% in the medial, LRN-projecting and RVLM SRT group, respectively. 4) There was no significant difference in the mean conduction velocities between the 3 groups. But the deep cells had significantly higher velocity than that of the HT cells. The above results show that the peripheral inputs to the SRT units are different in the 3 groups: medial, LRN & RVLM SRT group. Especially in case of the SRT cells projecting to RVLM which is a probable candidate fur the integration center of various pressor reflexes such as somatosympathetic reflex, the noxious informations occupy higher proportion of input to them than in other groups. Therefore the noxious information transmitted through the lateral SRT destined for RVLM is expected to play a role in somatosymapthetic reflex.

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An Evaluation of the Private Security Industry Regulations in Queensland : A Critique (호주 민간시큐리티 산업의 비판적 고찰 : 퀸즐랜드주를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dae-Woon;Jung, Yook-Sang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.44
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    • pp.7-35
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this article is to inform and document the contemporary development of the private security industry in Queensland Australia, a premier holiday destination that provide entertainment for the larger region. The purpose of this review is to examine the comtemporary development of mandated licensing regimes regulating the industry, and the necessary reform agenda. The overall aim is threefold: first, to chart the main outcomes of the two-wave of reforms since the mid-'90s; second, to examine the effectiveness of changes in modes of regulation; and third, to identify the criteria that can be considered a best practice based on Button(2012) and Prenzler and Sarre's(2014) criteria. The survey of the Queensland regulatory regime has demonstrated that, despite the federal-guided reforms, there remain key areas where further initiatives remain pending, markedly case-by-case utilisation of more proactive strategies such as on-site alcohol/drug testing, psychological evaluations, and checks on close associates; lack of binding training arrangement for technical services providers; and targeted auditing of licensed premises and the vicinity of venues by the Office of Fair Trading, a licensing authority. The study has highlighted the need for more determined responses and active engagements in these priority areas. This study of the development of the licensing regimes in Queensland Australia provides useful insights for other jurisdictions including South Korea on how to better manage licensing system, including the measures required to assure an adequate level of professional competence in the industry. It should be noted that implementing a consistency in delivery mode and assessment in training was the strategic imperative for the Australian authority to intervene in the industry as part of stimulating police-private partnerships. Of particular note, competency elements have conventionally been given a low priority in South Korea, as exemplified through the lack of government-sponsored certificate; this is an area South Korean policymakers must assume an active role in implementing accredited scheme, via consulting transnational templates, including Australian qualifications framework.

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Effects of Herbicides on the Growth, Nodulation and VA Mycorrhizal Infection in Soybean (Glycine max) (제초제(除草劑) 처리(處理)가 콩 생육(生育) 및 근류균(根瘤菌) 착생(着生)과 VA 균근균(菌根菌) 감염(感染)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Yoon, C.S.;Huh, S.M.;Shon, B.K.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.16-30
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    • 1992
  • A field experiment was done to evaluate the growth response, rhizobia nodulation and vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (VAMF) infection of soybean treated with the different concentration of three-herbicides, alachlor, simazine, linuron. The results obtained were summarized as follows ; Emergence rate of soybean was non-significantly decreased by increasing the herbicide concentration. In simazine treatment, low emergence rate showed even in recommended concentration, especially the lowest emergence rate in treble concentration of recommended dose was about 50%. The plant length of soybean lowered by increasing the herbicide concentration, but there were almost no differences in recommended dose. Particularly that in a high concentration of herbicides at three weeks after treatment(WAT) was decreased remarkably. In the plant diameter of soybean shoot, no differences in the recommended concentration of alachlor and linuron at 2 WAT, but those of recommended dose was decreased with the lapse of time, and the lowest treatment was simazine-treated plot. Leaf area and fresh weight of soybean tended to decrease over the control even in recommended concentration and it was decreased with the increment of the herbicide dose. Yield component, fresh weight of rhizobia nodule and chlorophyll content of soybean leaves were reduced with the increment of herbicide dose, espicially remarkable tendency was revealed in simazine-treated plot. Seasonal infection rate of VAM showed a slight decrease by increasing of herbicide dose, and the lowest infection was simazine treatment. Significant correlation was realized among the reduction of rhizobia nodulation, VAM colonization and the agronomic characters of soybean and it was considered that the reduction of rhizobia nodulation and VAM colonization by misapplication of the herbicides might be a causal factor for decrease in soybean yield.

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Prospects of Fertilizer Demand based on Recent Consumption (최근(最近)의 비료소비면(肥料消費面)에서 본 비료수요전망(肥料需要展望))

  • Park, Young-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 1976
  • In Korea, the ever-increasing population has become a serious problem and the decreasing of cultivated lard area per person has become a major concern. Therefore, today we are implementing a green revolution using miracle varieties which require more fertilizer. The increased use of fertilizer along with development and adoption of high yielding varieties is the key to carrying out this green revolution. Fertilizer consumption in Korea is mainly influenced by agricultural techniques, fertilizer prices and government policies for increasing food production. If there are no special change, such as a cataclysm or an exhaustion of resources, it is quite clear that the fertilizer demand will increase to the near maximum ceiling point of optimum levels for crops in the year 2000. Fertilizer demand is not the amount of fertilizer that will be used by the farmer, but the actual optimum amount of plant nutrients required for maximum production. In this report, two alternative strategies are consideded in forecasting the future feitilizer demands. Alternative I is projected by reviewing consumption amounts over the last 10 years (1966~75) in Korea. The annual rate of increase in fertilizer consumption for the last 10 years was approximately 8.7% (table 1). Plant nutrient consumption rates in later years have been more balanced, and also fertilizer consumption per total acreage is considerably higher in Korea than in other countries (table 11), consequently the rate of increase in the future is expected to decline. Looking at the long term projections, the average annual rate of increase is expected to be 7% for 1976~80, 2.5% for 1981~90, 1.5% for 1991~2000. Thus, total projected fertilizer demands are estimated at 1,208,000M/T by 1980, 1,547,000M/T by 1990, 1,795,000M/T by 2000 (table 16). Alternative II is based on projected optimum fertilizer levels for crops and on increased crop acreage. The government recommended fertilizer rate has increased by a factor of 0.99 to 5.49 over the past twelve years depending on the specific crops (table 4). Levels of fertilizer demand recommended by government (table 7) in 1976 are still low compared with actual optimum fertilizer demands for crops (table 5). Therefore, future incaeases in fertilizer usage are anticipated. Thus, total projected fertilizer demands are estimated at 1,229,000M/T by 1980, 1,493,000M/T by 1990 and 1,898,000M/T by 2000(table 16).

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Effect of the Landscape Crop, Chrysanthemum zawadskii on Reducing Soil Loss in Highland Sloping Area (경관작물 구절초의 고랭지 경사지 밭 토양유실 경감 효과)

  • Kim, Su Jeong;Sohn, Hwang Bae;Hong, Su Young;Kim, Tae Young;Lee, Jung Tae;Nam, Jung Hwan;Chang, Dong Chil;Suh, Jong Taek;Kim, Yul Ho
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2020
  • There is high vulnerability of soil loss in sloping and highland used for agricultural production due to the low surface covering in summer rainy season. This study evaluated the surface-covering rate of landscape crop in reducing soil loss in the highland. The experiment was conducted in a 55% sloped lysimeter with three treatments of planting density using Korean native chrysanthemum, and investigated the soil coverage rate, run-off water, and soil erosion. The three treatments according to the degree of soil covering are bare soil as the control treatment TC, coverage rate of 43-59% for treatment T1, and, coverage rate of 63-81% for treatment T1, and T2. During the cultivation period, the average reduction of run-off water was 71% for treatment T1 and 76% for treatment T2, which are better, compared with the control. The reduction in eroded soil was 84% in treatment T1 and 98% for treatment T2, which is also better than the control treatment. Therefore, it is possible to alleviate the soil loss in sloping lands by planting chrysanthemum, which is superior among the perennial plant species and considered as a crop with economic value.

Precipitation of $CaCO_3$ Crystals from Variously Supersaturated Solutions (다양한 과포화 조건하에서의 탄산염광물의 합성에 대한 연구)

  • Hyeon Yoon;Kim, Soo-Jin
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2004
  • Crystallization of CaC $O_3$ from the solutions of various degrees of supersaturation was carried out by a spontaneous precipitation method. The solution was kept at $25^{\circ}C$ and pH 6.9∼8.8. The solution compositions were varied in two ways: (1) The total carbonate, [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$, to total calcium. [Ca]$_{Τ}$, ratios vary as ; [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$ >1. [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$=1, and [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$<1. (2) The total calcium concentration, [Ca]$_{Τ}$, held at 0.02 mo1/d $m^3$, 0.2 mo1/d $m^3$, and 0.4 mo1/d $m^3$. We found that the CaC $O_3$ phase crystallized from the solutions of [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$ $\geq$ 1 was mostly calcite with less than 1% of vaterite, while the CaC $O_3$ crystals precipitated from low carbonate concentration toward calcium concentration, [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$ < 1, were dominated by vaterite crystals. It appears that the polymorph of CaC $O_3$ precipitate was mainly controlled not by the calcium concentration but by the carbonate concentration during the spontaneous precipitation. Also, we found that the surface roughness of vaterite increased with decreasing carbonate concentration from 0.8 or 0.5 of [C $O_3$]$_{Τ}$/[Ca]$_{Τ}$ ratios and the surface area of vaterite increased from 5.64∼7.34 $\mu\textrm{m}$ to 8.39∼10.3 $\mu\textrm{m}$.

Serial Survey on Group A beta-Hemolytic Streptococcal Carrier Rate and Serotyping in Elementary School Children in 1996~1998 (3년간(1996~1998) 초등학생의 A군 연쇄구균 보균율과 혈청학적 분류에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Kim, Ju-Ye;Kang, Hyeon-Ho;Cha, Sung-Ho;Lee, Young-Hee
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : The accuracy of bacteriologic diagnosis of beta-hemolytic streptococcal pharyngotonsillitis depends on the degree of carrier rate in that area where the throat swabs are obtained and the evaluation of serological T typing as an epidemiologic marker is important to understand epidemiology of streptococcal infection. The purpose of this study is to know the carrier rates of group A streptococcus in normal children form four different areas and to find out the epidemiologic characteristic in distribution of the serotypes for 3 years. Method : Throat swabs were obtained from the tonsillar fossa of normal school children in four different areas(Uljin, Seoul, Osan, Kunsan) from March to May 1996, in Uljin in April 1997, and in Uljin in April 1998. The samples were plated on a 5% sheep blood agar plate and incubated overnight at $37^{\circ}C$ before examination for the presence of beta-hemolytic colonies. All isolated beta-hemolytic streptococcus were grouped and serotyped by T agglutination. Results : The carrier rate of beta-hemolytic streptococci and group A streptococci in 1996 were 27.6%, 18.6% at Uljin; 16.4%, 2.7% at Seoul; 33.0%, 26.0% at Osan; 20.0%, 12.3% at Kunsan, respectively. Among 1,192 normal school children from 4 different areas, we obtained 179 strains of group A streptococci. Fifty two percent of the strains were typable by T agglutination in 1996. Common T-type in 1996 were NT, T1, T3, T2 at Uljin; T12, T25 at Seoul; NT, T6, T28 at Osan; T25, T4, NT, T5 at Kunsan, in decreasing order, respectively. At Uljin, T1, T3, T25 accounted for 69% of strains in 1996, T1, T12, T25 accounted for 70% in 1997, and T12, T4 accounted for 88% in 1998. Conclusion : Higher carrier rates were found in Uljin and Osan, where there are a lower population density with scanty of medical facilities compared with another areas. We supposed that low carrier rates is likely to be related to antibiotic abuse or some epidemiologic factor. The periodic and seasonal serotyping analysis is important in monitoring and understanding the epidemiologic patterns of group A streptococci.

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Analysis of Safety Education Contents of 『Field of home life』 in Technology·Home Economics Textbook developed by the revised curriculum in 2009 (2009 개정 기술·가정 교과서 『가정생활영역』의 안전교육 내용 분석)

  • Kim, Nam Eun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.23-39
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    • 2017
  • The Purpose of this study is to present the basic data for selecting and improving the safety education contents which help practically middle school students through analysis of contents of safety education in 'field of home life' of 2009 revised middle school textbooks. The subjects of analysis are 12 types of middle school textbooks: in total 24 books written by 12 publishers in terms of the revised curriculum in 2009. The analysis criteria is developed by the researcher referring to preceding studies regarding safety education based on the seventh safety education standard presented by the Ministry of Education (2015). With such analysis criteria, all words related to the contents of the safety education of analysis criteria were extracted from each textbook, such as words directly mentioned as 'safety', words mean as 'psychological safety' and 'happy life', words related to 'attention', 'note', 'stability' etc. Under the analytic frame of safety education contents according to a home economics textbook, content analysis method was used for producing the frequency and percent of those words. The textbook analysis shows that the number of pages regarding safety education is 336.3 pages, as 9.8% in total 3,412 pages of 12 types of technology and home economics textbooks. As following the analysis of each textbook volume of the proportion in the contents related to safety education, 224.9 pages are on the first volume and 111.9 pages are on the second volume. As grades increase from year one to year three, the proportion of safety education in home economics textbooks is decreased. The highest number of safety education contents unit is 'Self-management of youth' which includes three parts of safety education. In the case of a unit for emphasizing practice, experience and practical exercise such as 'Life of youth' and 'Practice of eco-living', safety education content in the area of 'life safety' are mostly contained. Safety accidents related to the most student experienced, Household accidents (1.4%) and experiment or practice accidents (0.3%) are presented in a low figure. The contents of universal housing and school violence are duplicated on first and second volume of text. The most presented safety education content in the 12 types of textbooks are proper sexual attitude, dietary problems, family conflict and food choice. The least common contents are dangerous drugs, family welfare, internet addiction and industrial accident compensation insurance. As this study is to analyze 12 textbooks developed in 2009 revision curriculum, it is necessary to compare it with the textbook written by the revised curriculum in 2015 and to clarify the contents system of safety education and to avoid duplication of contents. In addition, it is necessary to develop and distribute a safety education program that can support textbooks.