• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.739-754
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability estimation procedure for the underground gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Methods: Corrosion is one of the major causes of the gas pipeline failure. Several failure forms caused by corrosion have been studied. Among them, small leak and burst are considered in this paper. The composite failure of the two is defined by limit state function, and it is expressed with pipe parameters. Given a modified corrosion dataset, in order to obtain reliability estimations, the method of first order and second moment is adopted because of its simplicity. The computation processes are conducted with MATLAB coding. Results: According to numerical results, the probability of composite failure is affected by both small leak and burst. In particular, when corrosion depth stays at low level, it is consistent with the probability of burst failure. On the contrary, it is more influenced by the small leak failure as corrosion depth is increasing. In such case, the probability of composite failure is fast approaching to the safety limit. Conclusion: By considering the composite failure, more practical predictions of remaining life can be obtained. The proposed method is useful for maintenance planning of the underground gas pipeline.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.117-127
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• 1991

For the reliability analysis of offshore guyed towers for large storm events, failure of an anchor pile of the guyline system is investigated. Two failure modes of the anchor pile due to the extreme and the cyclic wave loadings are considered. The probability of failure due to the extreme anchor load is evaluated based on the first excursion probability analysis. Degradation of the pile capacity due to cyclic loadings is evaluated by using empirical fatigue curves for a driven pile in clay. The numerical results indicate that the failure probability due to the cyclic loadings can be as large as the risk due to extreme loading, particularly for the cases with the low design safety level of the pile strength and the large uncertainty of the pile resistance.

• Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.57-69
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• 2001

We have carried out a nondestructive close examination for the purpose of the structural safety diagnosis of the Three-Story Pagoda(Seokga Pagoda) in Bulkuk temple in the city of Kyungju, Kyungbuk, Korea. Ultrasonic wave velocities were measured at 456 points of the pagoda comprising 44 blocks to estimate the mechanical properties of rock blocks constituting the pagoda. The measured velocities have the range of 1217 to 4403 m/sec with the average of 3227 m/sec. The empirical relationship between the ultrasonic velocity and the uniaxial compressive strength yielded the estimation of strength of each block, ranging from 134 to 844 kg/cm^2 and averaging 463 kg/cm^2. With an assumption that the strength of each block is described as a random variables having a normal distribution, we calculated the probability of failure of rock blocks of the pagoda. Our investigation revealed that the probability of the structural failure due to the weight of higher blocks is very low. However, the probability of partial failure around contact area is substantial, which is consistent with the appearance that edges and the corners of some blocks were broken off. The platform under the body of the pagoda appeared to be structurally weak as the probability of tensile failure of the lower platform is up to 18%, and diagonal fractures are shown where the probability of failure is high.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1-12
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• 2020

Low-Orbit satellite mobile networks can provide services through miniaturized terminals with low transmission power, which can be used as reliable means of communication in the national public disaster network and defense sector. However, the high traffic environment in the emergency preparedness situation increases the new call blocking probability and the handover failure probability of the satellite network, and the increase of the handover failure probability affects the QoS because low orbit satellites move in orbit at a very high speed. Among the channel allocation methods of satellite communication, the FCA shows relatively better performance in a high traffic environment than DCA and is suitable for emergency preparedness situations, but in order to optimize QoS when traffic increases, the new call blocking and the handover failure must be minimized. In this paper, we propose LEO-DBC (LEO satellite dynamic beam width control) technique, which improves QoS by adaptive adjustment of beam width of low-orbit satellites and call time of terminals by improving FCA-QH method. Through the LEO-DBC technique, it is expected that the QoS of the mobile satellite communication network can be optimally maintained in high traffic environments in emergency preparedness situations.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.411-419
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• 1994

The containment failure probability due to hydrogen burning during severe accidents proceeding in a low pressure sequence is calculated using Monte Carlo method. The probability distribution functions for this Monte Carlo calculation is obtained from the statistical method. The calculations are performed for Kori unit 2, and the sensitivity studies on the input variables-the amount of hydrogen generated at SFD, cerium diameter, cerium length, oxidation rate at FCI, and the amount of hydrogen generated during MCCI-are also performed. It is revealed that SFD is the main factor in hydrogen generation, but the other sources also cannot be neglected. The containment failure probability due to the hydrogen burning lies within 6% in case of Kori unit 2.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.347-363
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• 2007

A novel methodology, referred to as Auxiliary Domain Method (ADM), allowing for a very efficient solution of nonlinear reliability problems is presented. The target nonlinear failure domain is first populated by samples generated with the help of a Markov Chain. Based on these samples an auxiliary failure domain (AFD), corresponding to an auxiliary reliability problem, is introduced. The criteria for selecting the AFD are discussed. The emphasis in this paper is on the selection of the auxiliary linear failure domain in the case where the original nonlinear reliability problem involves multiple objectives rather than a single objective. Each reliability objective is assumed to correspond to a particular response quantity not exceeding a corresponding threshold. Once the AFD has been specified the method proceeds with a modified subset simulation procedure where the first step involves the direct simulation of samples in the AFD, rather than standard Monte Carlo simulation as required in standard subset simulation. While the method is applicable to general nonlinear reliability problems herein the focus is on the calculation of the probability of failure of nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to Gaussian random excitations. The method is demonstrated through such a numerical example involving two reliability objectives and a very large number of random variables. It is found that ADM is very efficient and offers drastic improvements over standard subset simulation, especially when one deals with low probability failure events.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.193-204
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• 2019

Reliability analyses of sixteen domestic design cases of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were conducted in this study. For the reliability analyses, uncertainties of parameters of soils, mound, and concrete cap were assessed. Bishop simplified method was used to obtain load and resistance of open cell caisson breakwater for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwater. Sufficient number of Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwaters, and statistical analysis was conducted on loads and resistances collected from the large number of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability of failure produced from Monte Carlo simulation has a nonconvergence issue for very low probability of failure; therefore, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) was conducted using the statistical characteristics of loads and resistances of open cell caisson breakwaters. In addition, effects of safety factor, uncertainties of load and resistance, and correlation between load and resistance on reliability of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were examined.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.471-478
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• 2020

In this paper, we develop the ground risk model of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operation to quantify the ground risk when the UAV falls to the ground during the intended operation in case of UAV failure. The ground risk is computed by using the UAV failure probability, the probability of impact a person when UAV falls to the ground, the probability of fatality when UAV strikes the person. We mathematically derive each probability to evaluate the ground risk of UAV operation. Also, the population density map, building to land ratio map, car traffic database is used to estimate the number of people exposed to collision with UAV. Finally, we assumed the operations of a UAV with two paths in Daejeon city and evaluate the ground risk of each UAV operations.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.281-288
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• 1987

A total and consecutive 163 patients underwent cardiac valve replacement using the Hancock porcine xenograft cardiac valves from 1 976 to 1984. Of 198 substitute valves, 177 were the Hancock valves. One hundred twenty-nine patients[79.1%] had single valve replacement: MVR 118, AVR 8 and TVR 3; 33[20.3%] had double valve replacement: MVR+AVR 27 and MVR+TVR 6; and a single case had triple valve replacement. Other surgical procedures were added in 34 patients. The operative mortality rate within 30 days of surgery was 6.1%, and it was, however, 4.2%, with single MVR. Late mortality rate was 6.7% or 1.95%/patient-year of a linealized mortality rate. Early survivors of 153 patients were followed up for a total of 565.1 patient-years [a mean of 44.3*27.1 months]. The linealized annual complication rates were: 1.95% emboli/patient-year, 0.89% bleeding/patient-year 1.24% endocarditis/patient-year, and 4.25% overall failure/patient-year. Primary tissue failure occurred at a rate of 1.59%/patient-year. The actuarial survival rates including operative mortality were 87.0*4.1% and 77.3*6.6% at 5 and 11 years after surgery respectively. The probability of freedom from thromboembolic complication of 89.2*3.4% at 5 years after surgery lasted unchanged upto 11 years. The probability of freedom from overall valve failure was 81.3*4.5% at postoperative 5 years, and it dropped down to 26.2*19.4% at 11 years, although the latter was statistically insignificant because of a small number of patients entering into the years approaching the follow-up end. However, the probability of freedom from the primary tissue failure was 81.3*10.6% at postoperative 9 years, which coincides closely with the speculated rate of tissue degeneration of about 20% in 10 years. These clinical results confirm the low thrombogenicity of the Hancock porcine valve and the reasonable failure rate of tissue degeneration.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2018

Wind damage of urban trees arises to be a serious issue especially in the typhoon-prone areas. As a family of tree species widely-planted in Southeast China, the structural behaviors of Plane tree is investigated. In order to accommodate the complexities of tree morphology, a fractal theory based finite element modeling method is proposed. On-site measurement of Plane trees is performed for physical definition of structural parameters. It is revealed that modal frequencies of Plane trees distribute in a manner of grouped dense-frequencies; bending is the main mode of structural failure. In conjunction with the probability density evolution method, the fragility assessment of urban trees subjected to wind excitations is then proceeded. Numerical results indicate that small-size segments such as secondary branches feature a relatively higher failure risk in a low wind level, and a relatively lower failure risk in a high wind level owing to windward shrinks. Besides, the trunk of Plane tree is the segment most likely to be damaged than other segments in case of high winds. The failure position tends to occur at the connection between trunk and primary branches, where the logical protections and reinforcement measures can be implemented for mitigating the wind damage.