• Title/Summary/Keyword: loss modeling

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Optimal Monetary Policy System for Both Macroeconomics and Financial Stability (거시경제와 금융안정을 종합 고려한 최적 통화정책체계 연구)

  • Joonyoung Hur;Hyoung Seok Oh
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.91-129
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    • 2024
  • The Bank of Korea, through a legal amendment in 2011 following the financial crisis, was entrusted with the additional responsibility of financial stability beyond its existing mandate of price stability. Since then, concerns have been raised about the prolonged increase in household debt compared to income conditions, which could constrain consumption and growth and increase the possibility of a crisis in the event of negative economic shocks. The current accumulation of financial imbalances suggests a critical period for the government and central bank to be more vigilant, ensuring it does not impede the stable flow of our financial and economic systems. This study examines the applicability of the Integrated Inflation Targeting (IIT) framework proposed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for macro-financial stability in promoting long-term economic stability. Using VAR models, the study reveals a clear increase in risk appetite following interest rate cuts after the financial crisis, leading to a rise in household debt. Additionally, analyzing the central bank's conduct of monetary policy from 2000 to 2021 through DSGE models indicates that the Bank of Korea has operated with a form of IIT, considering both inflation and growth in its policy decisions, with some responsiveness to the increase in household debt. However, the estimation of a high interest rate smoothing coefficient suggests a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, estimating the optimal interest rate rule to minimize the central bank's loss function reveals that a policy considering inflation, growth, and being mindful of household credit conditions is superior. It suggests that the policy of actively adjusting the benchmark interest rate in response to changes in economic conditions and being attentive to household credit situations when household debt is increasing rapidly compared to income conditions has been analyzed as a desirable policy approach. Based on these findings, we conclude that the integrated inflation targeting framework proposed by the BIS could be considered as an alternative policy system that supports the stable growth of the economy in the medium to long term.

Consumer's Negative Brand Rumor Acceptance and Rumor Diffusion (소비자의 부정적 브랜드 루머의 수용과 확산)

  • Lee, Won-jun;Lee, Han-Suk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.65-96
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    • 2012
  • Brand has received much attention from considerable marketing research. When consumers consume product or services, they are exposed to a lot of brand related stimuli. These contain brand personality, brand experience, brand identity, brand communications and so on. A special kind of new crisis occasionally confronting companies' brand management today is the brand related rumor. An important influence on consumers' purchase decision making is the word-of-mouth spread by other consumers and most decisions are influenced by other's recommendations. In light of this influence, firms have reasonable reason to study and understand consumer-to-consumer communication such as brand rumor. The importance of brand rumor to marketers is increasing as the number of internet user and SNS(social network service) site grows. Due to the development of internet technology, people can spread rumors without the limitation of time, space and place. However relatively few studies have been published in marketing journals and little is known about brand rumors in the marketplace. The study of rumor has a long history in all major social science. But very few studies have dealt with the antecedents and consequences of any kind of brand rumor. Rumor has been generally described as a story or statement in general circulation without proper confirmation or certainty as to fact. And it also can be defined as an unconfirmed proposition, passed along from people to people. Rosnow(1991) claimed that rumors were transmitted because people needed to explain ambiguous and uncertain events and talking about them reduced associated anxiety. Especially negative rumors are believed to have the potential to devastate a company's reputation and relations with customers. From the perspective of marketer, negative rumors are considered harmful and extremely difficult to control in general. It is becoming a threat to a company's sustainability and sometimes leads to negative brand image and loss of customers. Thus there is a growing concern that these negative rumors can damage brands' reputations and lead them to financial disaster too. In this study we aimed to distinguish antecedents of brand rumor transmission and investigate the effects of brand rumor characteristics on rumor spread intention. We also found key components in personal acceptance of brand rumor. In contextualist perspective, we tried to unify the traditional psychological and sociological views. In this unified research approach we defined brand rumor's characteristics based on five major variables that had been found to influence the process of rumor spread intention. The five factors of usefulness, source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness, encompass multi level elements of brand rumor. We also selected product involvement as a control variable. To perform the empirical research, imaginary Korean 'Kimch' brand and related contamination rumor was created and proposed. Questionnaires were collected from 178 Korean samples. Data were collected from college students who have been experienced the focal product. College students were regarded as good subjects because they have a tendency to express their opinions in detail. PLS(partial least square) method was adopted to analyze the relations between variables in the equation model. The most widely adopted causal modeling method is LISREL. However it is poorly suited to deal with relatively small data samples and can yield not proper solutions in some cases. PLS has been developed to avoid some of these limitations and provide more reliable results. To test the reliability using SPSS 16 s/w, Cronbach alpha was examined and all the values were appropriate showing alpha values between .802 and .953. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted successfully. And structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the research model using smartPLS(ver. 2.0) s/w. Overall, R2 of adoption of rumor is .476 and R2 of intention of rumor transmission is .218. The overall model showed a satisfactory fit. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. According to the results, the variables of brand rumor characteristic such as source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness affect argument strength of rumor. And argument strength of rumor also affects rumor intention. On the other hand, the relationship between perceived usefulness and argument strength of rumor is not significant. The moderating effect of product involvement on the relations between argument strength of rumor and rumor W.O.M intention is not supported neither. Consequently this study suggests some managerial and academic implications. We consider some implications for corporate crisis management planning, PR and brand management. This results show marketers that rumor is a critical factor for managing strong brand assets. Also for researchers, brand rumor should become an important thesis of their interests to understand the relationship between consumer and brand. Recently many brand managers and marketers have focused on the short-term view. They just focused on strengthen the positive brand image. According to this study we suggested that effective brand management requires managing negative brand rumors with a long-term view of marketing decisions.

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Estimation of Internal Motion for Quantitative Improvement of Lung Tumor in Small Animal (소동물 폐종양의 정량적 개선을 위한 내부 움직임 평가)

  • Yu, Jung-Woo;Woo, Sang-Keun;Lee, Yong-Jin;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Kim, Jin-Su;Lee, Kyo-Chul;Park, Sang-Jun;Yu, Ran-Ji;Kang, Joo-Hyun;Ji, Young-Hoon;Chung, Yong-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Il;Lim, Sang-Moo
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate internal motion using molecular sieve for quantitative improvement of lung tumor and to localize lung tumor in the small animal PET image by evaluated data. Internal motion has been demonstrated in small animal lung region by molecular sieve contained radioactive substance. Molecular sieve for internal lung motion target was contained approximately 37 kBq Cu-64. The small animal PET images were obtained from Siemens Inveon scanner using external trigger system (BioVet). SD-Rat PET images were obtained at 60 min post injection of FDG 37 MBq/0.2 mL via tail vein for 20 min. Each line of response in the list-mode data was converted to sinogram gated frames (2~16 bin) by trigger signal obtained from BioVet. The sinogram data was reconstructed using OSEM 2D with 4 iterations. PET images were evaluated with count, SNR, FWHM from ROI drawn in the target region for quantitative tumor analysis. The size of molecular sieve motion target was $1.59{\times}2.50mm$. The reference motion target FWHM of vertical and horizontal was 2.91 mm and 1.43 mm, respectively. The vertical FWHM of static, 4 bin and 8 bin was 3.90 mm, 3.74 mm, and 3.16 mm, respectively. The horizontal FWHM of static, 4 bin and 8 bin was 2.21 mm, 2.06 mm, and 1.60 mm, respectively. Count of static, 4 bin, 8 bin, 12 bin and 16 bin was 4.10, 4.83, 5.59, 5.38, and 5.31, respectively. The SNR of static, 4 bin, 8 bin, 12 bin and 16 bin was 4.18, 4.05, 4.22, 3.89, and 3.58, respectively. The FWHM were improved in accordance with gate number increase. The count and SNR were not proportionately improve with gate number, but shown the highest value in specific bin number. We measured the optimal gate number what minimize the SNR loss and gain improved count when imaging lung tumor in small animal. The internal motion estimation provide localized tumor image and will be a useful method for organ motion prediction modeling without external motion monitoring system.