• 동력기계공학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2009

This paper discusses the influence on long-tenn predictions of the ship response in ocean by using the Global Wave Statistics data, GWS, and wave information from the remote sensing satellites. GWS's standard scatter diagrams of significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period are suggested to be corrected to a round number of 0.01/1000 fitted with a statistical analytic model of the conditional lognormal distribution for zero-crossing wave period. The GEOSAT satellite data are utilized which presented by I. R. Young and G. J. Holland (1996, named as GEOSAT data). At first, qualities of this data are investigated, and statistical characteristic trends are studied by means of applying known probability distribution functions. The wave height data of GEOSAT are compared to the data observed onboard merchant ships, the data observed by measure instrument installed on the ocean-going container ship and so on. To execute a long-tenn prediction of ship response, joint probability functions between wave height and wave period are introduced, therefore long-term statistical predictions are executed by using the functions.

• Ocean Science Journal
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.245-254
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• 2006

Long term wave climate of both extreme wave and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures. Since the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is not enough to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Basic data base of hindcasted wave parameters such as significant wave height, peak period and direction has been established continuously for the period of 25 years starting from 1979 and for major 106 typhoons for the past 53 years since 1951 for each grid point of the North East Asia Regional Seas with grid size of 18 km. Wind field reanalyzed by European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used for the simulation of waves for the extra-tropical storms, while wind field calculated by typhoon wind model with typhoon parameters carefully analyzed using most of the available data was used for the simulation of typhoon waves. Design wave heights for the return period of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point have been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the wave simulation data. As in conventional methodsi of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term hindcasting data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. The method of extreme statistical analysis in handling the extreme vents like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30-50 years for the cost effective construction of coastal structures.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.109-115
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• 2016

우리나라 동해안 6개 관측점에서 장기간 관측된 파랑자료를 이용하여 폭풍파의 출현 추세를 검토하였다. 한국해양과학기술원의 4개 정점(속초, 묵호, 후포, 진하)에서는 관측기간 동안 유의파고의 연별 평균값과 최대값의 주목할 만한 추세가 나타나지 않았다. 또한, 폭풍파의 연별 출현 횟수는 진하에서만 완만한 증가 추세가 나타났고 나머지 세 정점에서는 감소 추세를 보였다. 그러나 기상청 동해부이의 경우 유의파고의 연별 평균값과 최대값 및 폭풍파 연별 출현횟수가 2009년 이후로 매우 급격하게 증가하는 경향이 나타났으며 해당 자료의 연속성이 확보되지 않은 것으로 확인되었다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.654-659
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 연안 환경에 대한 대표적인 지상 원격 관측 기기인 Ocean Radar를 이용하여 장기파랑관측을 수행하였다. 지상에 설치한 기기로부터 이루어지는 원격 관측은 소수의 현장 기기 개수로는 관측할 수 없는 넓은 범위의 해역을 통시에 관측할 수 있고 또한 높은 빈도의 지속적인 관측이 가능한 장점이 있다. 장기관측을 위한 Ocean Radar는 과거 지진해일에 의한 피해가 발생하고, 원자력 발전소가 위치한 한국 동해안의 삼척지역에 대해 장기관측을 수행하였으며, 원격관측의 적용성을 검토하기 위해 수압식 파고계를 설치하여 각각의 조사자료를 비교하였다. 원격파랑관측은 연구대상해역 전면에 독일 Helzel사에서 개발된 Array type의 HF-RADAR인 WERA (WavE RAdar)를 2개소에 설치하여 자료를 취득하였으며, 장기간 연속된 관측된 자료의 취득률을 분석해본 결과, Ocean Radar 가 설치된 두 Site의 중심에서 약 24km이며, 약 27km의 범위 내에서는 Wave 자료가 90% 이상 취득되었으며, 시계열로 분석한 결과, 결측된 시간이 전체 계측기간의 1% 미만이다. 직접관측방식인 수압식 파고계와 관측자료를 비교한 결과, RMS 편차는 20cm 이내이며, 상관계수가 0.84 ~ 0.87로 높은 상관관계를 가지는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서, 금회적용한 Ocean Radar는 기존의 파랑 계측 장비를 대체하여 장기간 면적 파랑관측이 가능할 것으로 생각된다.

• 풍력에너지저널
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.42-52
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• 2022

In this paper, we propose a time-series generation methodology using a generative adversarial network (GAN) for long-term prediction of wind and sea conditions, which are information necessary for operations and maintenance (O&M) planning and optimal plans for offshore wind farms. It is a "Conditional TimeGAN" that is able to control time-series data with monthly conditions while maintaining a time dependency between time-series. For the generated time-series data, the similarity of the statistical distribution by direction was confirmed through wave and wind rose diagram visualization. It was also found that the statistical distribution and feature correlation between the real data and the generated time-series data was similar through PCA, t-SNE, and heat map visualization algorithms. The proposed time-series generation methodology can be applied to monthly or annual marine weather prediction including probabilistic correlations between various features (wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave direction, wave period and their time-series characteristics). It is expected that it will be able to provide an optimal plan for the maintenance and optimization of offshore wind farms based on more accurate long-term predictions of sea and wind conditions by using the proposed model.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.480-494
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• 2009

장기간의 극치 파랑자료는 연안 및 항만구조물의 계획 및 설계에서 매우 중요한 인자이다. 그러나, 한국 연안 심해파는 관측 자료가 한정되어 있으므로 기상정보로부터 사후추정한 장기간의 파랑자료를 이용하고 있다. 한국해양연구원(2005)에서는 1979년부터 2003년까지의 한국연안 106개 지점의 극치 파랑 자료를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 이 자료를 활용하여 최적 극치분포 함수를 분석하고, Goda(2004)가 제안한 확산모수를 산정하였다. 산정된 확산모수는 모멘트법으로 산정한 결과와 잘 일치하였다. 그러나, 확산모수가 외국사례보다 큰 1.0에서 2.8에 이르고 있기 때문에 차후 설계파에 대한 검토가 필요하다.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.336-346
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• 2021

The prediction of wave conditions is crucial in the field of marine and ocean engineering. Hence, this study aims to predict the significant wave height through machine learning (ML), a soft computing method. The adopted metocean data, collected from 2012 to 2020, were obtained from the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology. We adopted the feedforward neural network (FNN) and long-short term memory (LSTM) models to predict significant wave height. Input parameters for the input layer were selected by Pearson correlation coefficients. To obtain the optimized hyperparameter, we conducted a sensitivity study on the window size, node, layer, and activation function. Finally, the significant wave height was predicted using the FNN and LSTM models, by varying the three input parameters and three window sizes. Accordingly, FNN (W48) (i.e., FNN with window size 48) and LSTM (W48) (i.e., LSTM with window size 48) were superior outcomes. The most suitable model for predicting the significant wave height was FNN(W48) owing to its accuracy and calculation time. If the metocean data were further accumulated, the accuracy of the ML model would have improved, and it will be beneficial to predict added resistance by waves when conducting a sea trial test.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.15-20
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• 2007

The harbor siltation by longshore sediment transports has become a serious problem on the East Coast of Korea. A reasonable prediction of the longshore sediment rate is important to approach the siltation problem effectively. In the recently developed 1-line model, the empirical constants of the sediment transport formula, which include the absolute quantity of sediment transport rate and the spatial distribution of breaking wave height by wave deformation, are treated as calibration parameters. Since these constants should be determined by the very long-term shoreline data, the longshore sediment rates are much more reasonable values. The method was applied to Hupo Beach, which has experienced heavy siltation. The authors also discuss long-term shoreline change using aerial photos and the observed wave-induced current patterns. According to the result, the SW-direction sediment transport rate was $146,892m^3/year$, and the NE direction was $2,694,450m^3/year$ at Hupo Beach for the last 11 years. The siltation in Hupo Harbor might be affected by the NE-direction sediment transport from Hupo Beach.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2018

The paper suggests making a policy and strategies for a way of exporting Korean ICT product effectively in the EU and Eastern area, and an effective preparation of 4^th industrial revolution through analysis of preparation status of 4^th industrial revolution of the Visegrad group. Analyze policy, status, what they want for 4^th preparation in the Visegrad group from comparing characteristics analysis of each country's official data, publication data, portal, paper, and etc. They have been preparing for 4^th industrial revolution long time ago as basic research and business before 4^th wave word. With these basic results, they are trying to apply such as, AI, S/W, security, ICT, etc. of 4^th wave core technology. For the development of new export market in EU, the Korean team should research with university and research center or venture company. Through these cooperation, they should understand their personal characteristic, lifestyle, and what consumers want to purchase in EU. And this results can be used in South Asia and India that give a big effect to all over the world ICT market. The external impact of the 4^th wave must have a long-term shift in manpower, and production policy is related to the EU's strategic role, or the preparation of the 4^th wave to the V4 country in the short term.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.700-711
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 칠발도, 거문도, 동해에서 20년 이상 관측된 파랑자료를 16 방위별 극치확률분석을 통해 재현빈도별 심해설계파를 산정하였고, 이 값을 방향을 고려하지 않은 전방향파의 심해설계파와 비교하였다. Weibull 분포함수를 확률분포함수로 사용하였으며, 최소자승법을 사용해서 매개변수를 결정하였다. 추정된 분포함수는 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 방법을 사용하여 적합도를 검증하였다. 그 결과 방향별로 구한 심해설계파가 전방향파의 심해설계파보다 모든 방향에서 상대적으로 작은 것으로 나타났다. 파향별로 구한 50년 빈도 설계파고는 칠발도, 거문도, 동해에서 각각 7.46 m(NNE), 12.05 m(S), 9.69 m(SSW)가 최대값이지만, 전방향파로 구한 설계파고는 각각 7.91 m, 13.82 m, 10.38 m이었다. 이는 현재 해양 및 연안 구조물 설계에 사용하고 있는 16 방위별 심해설계파고가 과소산정되었을 가능성이 있음을 보여준다.