• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term simulation

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SWAT model calibration/validation using SWAT-CUP III: multi-site and multi-variable model analysis (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT 모형 검·보정 III: 다중 관측 지점 및 변수를 고려한 분석)

  • Cho, Younghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1143-1157
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    • 2020
  • In this study, a criteria for the SWAT model calibration method in SWAT-CUP which considers multi-site and multi-variable observations was presented. For its application, the SWAT model was simulated using long-term observed flow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration data in Yongdam study watershed, investigating the hydrological runoff characteristics and water balance in the water cycle analysis. The model was calibrated with different parameter values for each sub-watershed in order to reflect the characteristics of multiple observations through one-by-one calibration, appropriate settings of model simulation run/iteration number (1,000 simulation runs in the first iteration and then 500 simulation runs for the following iterations), and executions of partial and all run in SWAT-CUP. The flow simulation results of watershed outlet point, ENS 0.85, R2 0.87, and PBIAS -7.6%, were compared with the analysis results (ENS 0.52, R2 0.54, and PBIAS -22.4%) applied in the other batch (i.e., non one-by-one) calibration approach and showed better performances of proposed method. From the simulation results of a total of 15 years, it was found that the total runoff (streamflow) and evapotranspiration rates from precipitation are 53 and 39%, and the ratio of surface runoff and baseflow (i.e., sum of lateral and return flow, and recharge deep aquifer) are 35 and 65%, respectively, in Yongdam watershed. In addition, the analytical amount of available water (i.e., water yield), including the total annual streamflow (daily average 21.8 m3/sec) is 6.96 billion m3 per year (about 540 to 900 mm for sub-watersheds).

Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall based on Typhoon using Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation and Locally Weighted Polynomial Regression (비매개변수적 모의발생기법과 지역가중다항식을 이용한 태풍의 극치강우량 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il;Chun, Si-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.193-205
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    • 2009
  • Typhoons occurred in the tropical Pacific region, these might be affected the Korea moving toward north. The strong winds and the heavy rains by the typhoons caused a natural disaster in Korea. In the research, the heavy rainfall events based on typhoons were evaluated quantitative through various statistical techniques. First, probability precipitation and typhoon probability precipitation were compared using frequency analysis. Second, EST probability precipitation was calculated by Empirical Simulation Techniques (EST). Third, NL probability precipitation was estimated by coupled Nonparametric monte carlo simulation and Locally weighted polynomial regression. At the analysis results, the typhoons can be effected Gangneung and Mokpo stations more than other stations. Conversely, the typhoons can be effected Seoul and Inchen stations less than other stations. Also, EST and NL probability precipitation were estimated by the long-term simulation using observed data. Consequently, major hydrologic structures and regions where received the big typhoons impact should be review necessary. Also, EST and NL techniques can be used for climate change by the global warming. Because, these techniques used the relationship between the heavy rainfall events and the typhoons characteristics.

A Case Study on Building a System Dynamics Model for Strategic Knowledge Management (전략적 지식경영을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 구축 사례 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Yeon, Seung-Jun;Kim, Dong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Wook
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2005
  • IT companies make a lot of effort to share and utilize the experiences of their members and transform them into organizational knowledge as a competitive core. However they face a dilemma in that they have to spend time and financial resources to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying at field-work for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper tries to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although this model has to be further replenished, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers, especially of knowledge-intensive organizations.

A Study on Advanced Seafarers' Training for Improving Abilities of Officers in Charge of a Navigational Watch who Handle Navigational Equipment: To Focus on the ECDIS (항해사의 항해기기 취급 능력 향상을 위한 해기 교육 개선에 대한 연구: ECDIS를 중심으로)

  • LEE, Bo-Kyeong;KIM, Dae-Hae;LEE, Sang-Do;CHO, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2016
  • The main reason of marine casualties is the human error in respect of ship's operation. The human error of officers in charge of a navigational watch is related to their abilities to handle of navigational equipment. Navigational devices play a key role to help officers decide what to do for safe navigation. Thus, the abilities to handle of navigational equipment mean not only operation of devices but also entire understanding of the system such as interpretation of information obtained from devices, appropriate use of information considering navigational circumstance. Qualification of seafarers is in accordance with STCW and detailed training courses for their qualification are provided by IMO model course series. Recently, ships engaged on international voyages shall be fitted with an ECDIS not later than the first survey on or after 1 July 2018. As increasing use of ECDIS on ships, marine casualties related to ECDIS are on the rise. The primary causes of the accidents are lacking understanding of ECDIS system, wrong presentation of information on display, wrong safety setting by seafarers who use ECDIS, using small-scale chart and missing charts update. As a result of these primary causes, some problems like wrong route planning and use of limited or omitted information occur. It could be happening by inappropriate seafarers' training which is not sufficient to support improving abilities of officers to handle navigational equipment. For efficient training, it is need to develop training courses. Applying full mission simulation system to seafarers' training courses with case studies and best practices which are well-constructed scenarios based on true marine casualties can increase the effect of training. To use the simulation system, it is possible that seafarers are trained under condition that closely resemble real situation. It should be considered that IMO model course be revised depending on the level of seafarers also. It could be helpful for increasing seafarers' abilities of equipment operation in place of accumulation of experience spending much time. In the short term, effort of training courses improvement for seafarers is needed and long term, it should be tried to provide stable system and services relate to ECDIS.

Korean Sentence Generation Using Phoneme-Level LSTM Language Model (한국어 음소 단위 LSTM 언어모델을 이용한 문장 생성)

  • Ahn, SungMahn;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Jaejoon;Yang, Jiheon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2017
  • Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.

Long Tenn Water Quality Prediction using an Eco-hydrodynamic Model in the Asan Bay (생태-유체역학모델을 이용한 아산만 해양수질의 장기 예측)

  • Kwoun, Chul-Hui;Kang, Hoon;Cho, Kwang-Woo;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Jang, Kyu-Sang;Lee, Seung-Yong;Seo, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2009
  • The long-term water-quality change of Asan Bay by the influx of polluted disposal water was predicted through a simulation with an Eco-hydrodynamic model. Eco-hydrodynamic model is composed of a multi-level hydrodynamic model to simulate the water flow and an ecosystem model to simulate water quality. The water quality simulation revealed that the COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand), dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus(DIP) are increased at 5 stations for the subsequent 6 months after the influx of the effluent. COD, DIN and DIP showed gradual decreases in concentration during the period of one to two years after the increase of last 6 months and reached steady state for next three to ten years. Concentration levels of COD, DIN, and DIP showed the increase by the ranges of $11{\sim}67%$, $10{\sim}67%$, and $0.5{\sim}7%$, respectively, which represents that the COD and DIN are the most prevalent pollutants among substances in the effluent through the sewage treatment plant. The current water quality of Asan Bay based on the observed COD, TN and TP concentrations ranks into the class II of the Korean standards for marine water quality but the water quality would deteriorate into class III in case that the disposal water by the sewage plant is discharged into the Bay.

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Evaluation of Properties of Sulfur-Oxidizing Bacteria Growth and Resistance to Biochemical Corrosion by Simulation Test (시뮬레이션 시험에 의한 황산화세균의 생장 특성 및 생화학적 부식 저항성 평가)

  • Kim, Gyu-Yong;Lee, Eui-Bae;Khil, Bae-Su;Lee, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.495-502
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    • 2008
  • To analyze the growth of SOB(Thiobacillus novellus) and biochemical corrosion of concrete, simulation test method and device were developed, and basic conditions for SOB growth were established. Two types of simulation tests were conducted according to a transplant method and a concentration of $H_2SO_4$. As a result, the SOB growth in distinct manners and antibiosis of specimen were observed. In the case of the specimens indirectly transplanted with SOB through culture solution submersion at a hydrogen sulfide level of 120 ppm, the rapid activation of SOB and the resulting sulfuric acid production were observed. However, SOB were shown to grow rapidly and then die out in a relative short period of time. Meanwhile, in the case of the specimens directly transplanted with SOB at a hydrogen sulfide level of 50 ppm, the long-term growth of SOB was possible, but the production of sulfuric acid by SOB did not progress. In the case of the antibiotic metal-mixed specimens, SOB with destroyed cell membranes and internal organizations were observed.

Military Telescope Mirror Aluminum Re-Coating Prediction Study by Simulation (시뮬레이션을 통한 군용 망원경 미러 알루미늄 코팅 주기 예측 연구)

  • Choi, Hyo-Jun;Park, Jun-Su;Lee, Jung-Hoon;Oh, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2020
  • Re-coating of the mirror is one of the important things to maintain the performance of a telescope. The metal coated on the mirror reflects light, and if the reflectance decreases, then the telescope's performance decreases, so the mirror must be periodically recoated. It is important to predict re-coating cycles for military telescopes and to develop maintenance plans not only for performance, but also for the telescope's availability for missions and the maintenance costs for long-term use. However, most similar telescopes used for astronomy research determine recoating cycles based on experience and operating conditions, and not for prediction of recoating. Therefore, this study predicts the cleaning cycles and re-coating cycles of a military telescope's mirror by using simulation. First, this study analyzed similar cases of domestic and foreign astronomy research institutes and the study also reviewed the need for re-coating and predicting re-coating cycles. Second, this study developed simulation for predicting cleaning and re-coating cycles according to data analysis and modeling. Finally, the study predicts cleaning cycles and re-coating cycles according to varying reflectance reduction (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%) and cleaning conditions (per 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years). As a result, this study suggests reference criteria to develop the planning for military telescopes and their maintenance.

The evaluation of wetland sustainability for constructing a washland and Its hydrologic effect to Upo wetland (천변저류지 조성에 따른 습지지속가능성 평가 및 우포늪에 미치는 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Jae-Chul;Kim, Jin-Kwan;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2008
  • There have been many cases of using wetlands as an alternative in controlling stormwater, treating mining leachate, and agricultural discharge, and so on, recently. The reality is, however, that the wetlands are not properly applicable because of the lack of enough longterm data for wetlands due to the difficulty of long-term monitoring. Therefore, this study tries to analyze the storage of Upo, Mokpo, Sajipo, and Jjokjibeul in Topyeong watershed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, one of the long-term runoff hydrologic model, for the purpose of generating the long-term data and analyzing the hydrologic behavior of wetlands based on the generated data. Also, the changes in runoff at the outlet are analyzed after applying the simulation of constructing washland in Topyeong watershed and the storage in Upo is analyzed. The result shows that the runoff at the outlet of the watershed is decreased in rainy season from July to August and increased in dry season from December to February. In addition, the analysis of Upo storage concludes that Upo can be influenced by the construction of the washland. The duration curve of washland is then analyzed in order to evaluate the wetland's sustainability in terms of washland and it appears that the runoff of washland is simulated to be less than that of the existing wetland. Moreover, runoffs of some washlands are simulated to be less even in wet season. These results lead to the fact that there should be further hydrologic management for constructed washland. Then, the changes in loads (TN and TP) because of constructing washland are analyzed. The result shows that the loads are reduced because of the construction. Also, the changes in loads due to the construction of buffer strips are analyzed to compare the load reductions caused by a washland. Finally, REMM model, a riparian management model, is applied to overcome the hydrologic ambiguousness of SWAT model, and then, the SWAT model results are compared to those of REMM.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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