• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term simulation

Search Result 762, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Stochastic Continuous Storage Function Model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering (II) : Application and Verification (앙상블 칼만필터를 연계한 추계학적 연속형 저류함수모형 (II) : - 적용 및 검증 -)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Shamir, Eylon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.42 no.11
    • /
    • pp.963-972
    • /
    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate an application of stochastic continuous storage function model with ensemble Kalman filter technique. The case study is performed at the upstream basin of Jibo streamflow gauge including Andong and Imha dam. Test period is for the rainy season during 2006 and 2007. Long term runoff analysis is feasible in the case of using deterministic model. Ensemble members for input data and parameters are generated using Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose of applying ensemble Kalman filter technique. The cumulative absolute errors of stochastic model to the deterministic one are improved for the amount of 17.5 %, 18.3 % and more than 40.0 % for Andong dam, Imha dam and Jibo station, respectively. The results indicate that the stochastic model improves the accuracy of the simulated discharge considerably.

Simulation of the Best Management Practice Impacts on Nonpoint Source Pollutant Reduction in Agricultural Area using STEPL WEB Model (STEPL WEB 모형을 이용한 농촌지역 비점오염원저감 대책 모의)

  • Park, Youn Shik;Kum, Dong Hyuk;Jung, Young Hun;Cho, Ja Pil;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Ki Sung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.56 no.5
    • /
    • pp.21-27
    • /
    • 2014
  • Sediment-laden water is problematic in aquatic ecosystem and for hydraulic structures in a watershed, and agriculture area in a watershed is one of source areas of nonpoint source (NPS), since soil surface typically exposures due to agricultural activities. Especially, severe sediment might flow into stream when agricultural area is located near stream like the Imha-dam watershed. Soil erosion is affected by precipitation, therefore there is a need to consider precipitation characteristics in soil erosion and best management practices (BMPs) simulation. The Web-based Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load (STEPL WEB) allows estimating long-term sediment loads and the impact of best management practices to reduce sediment loads. STEPL WEB and predicted precipitation data by MIROC-ESM model was used to estimate sediment loads and its reduction by filter strip and conversion of agricultural area to forest in the future 30 years. The result indicates that approximately 70 % of agricultural area requires filter strip installation or that approximately 50 % of agricultural area needs to be converted to forest, for 41 % of sediment load reduction.

Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection and Dynamo Processes in a Spatially Rotating Magnetic Field

  • Lee, Junggi;Choe, G.S.;Song, Inhyeok
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.41 no.1
    • /
    • pp.45.1-45.1
    • /
    • 2016
  • Spatially rotating magnetic fields have been observed in the solar wind and in the Earth's magnetopause as well as in reversed field pinch (RFP) devices. Such field configurations have a similarity with extended current layers having a spatially varying plasma pressure instead of the spatially varying guide field. It is thus expected that magnetic reconnection may take place in a rotating magnetic field no less than in an extended current layer. We have investigated the spontaneous evolution of a collisionless plasma system embedding a rotating magnetic field with a two-and-a-half-dimensional electromagnetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation. In magnetohydrodynamics, magnetic flux can be decreased by diffusion in O-lines. In kinetic physics, however, an asymmetry of the velocity distribution function can generate new magnetic flux near O- and X-lines, hence a dynamo effect. We have found that a magnetic-flux-reducing diffusion phase and a magnetic-flux-increasing dynamo phase are alternating with a certain period. The temperature of the system also varies with the same period, showing a similarity to sawtooth oscillations in tokamaks. We have shown that a modified theory of sawtooth oscillations can explain the periodic behavior observed in the simulation. A strong guide field distorts the current layer as was observed in laboratory experiments. This distortion is smoothed out as magnetic islands fade away by the O-line diffusion, but is soon strengthened by the growth of magnetic islands. These processes are all repeating with a fixed period. Our results suggest that a rotating magnetic field configuration continuously undergoes deformation and relaxation in a short time-scale although it might look rather steady in a long-term view.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Masseter Muscle Volume after Contouring of Prominent Mandible Angle by Measurement of CT Scan Image

  • Kim, Yong Oock;Choi, Jong Woo
    • Journal of International Society for Simulation Surgery
    • /
    • v.1 no.2
    • /
    • pp.71-74
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose The prominent mandible angle, otherwise known as "square face", has been recognized as an aesthetic problem that needs correction by many in the Asian community. Many surgeons considered that mandible angle ostectomy alone, brings about hypotrophy of the masseter muscle. However, it was only proven indirectly (by clinical experience and histological animal experiments) and not objectively. In this study, we evaluated the volume of masseter muscle to prove the effect, objectively. Materials and method Computed tomography (CT) images were used to measure the masseter muscle volume of normal female group (n=6), and of female patient group n=8, preoperative and early & late postoperative volumes) presenting the symptom of prominent mandible angle. The data was analyzed statistically by two-sample t-test and paired t-test using SAS (version 8.2). Results In normal female group, volume average was $16,142{\pm}2,829.8mm^3$. In patient group, preoperative volume averaged $24,447{\pm}4,544.5mm^3$ (p<0.0001), early postoperative volume measured average of $31,966{\pm}50,421mm^3$ which is a 30% increase from the preoperative volume (p<0.0001). Late postoperative measurement was $20,202{\pm}4,092.3mm^3$, which is a 20% decrease from the preoperative volume (p<0.0006). Conclusion The bone reduction of prominent mandible angle induce the hypotrophic effect of masseter muscle after long term follow up (5 more months). This result mean that the result of mandible angle contouring surgery can be considered as combined effect of bony angle reduction and subsequent masseter muscle hypotrophy.

Predicted Performance of the Integrated Artificial Lighting System in Relation to Daylight Levels (채광시스템과 인공조명설비의 통합기술 및 성능평가연구)

  • Kim, G.;Kim, J.T.
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.47-56
    • /
    • 2002
  • The office is an excellent candidate for implementing daylighting techniques because of the relatively high electric lighting power densities and long daytime use pattern. The quantity of light available for a space can be translated in term of the amount of energy savings through a process of a building energy simulation. To get significant energy savings in general illumination, the electric lighting system must be incorporated with a daylight - activated dimmer control. A prototype configuration of an office interior has been established and the integration between the building envelope and lighting and HVAC systems is evaluated based on computer modeling of a lighting control facility. First of all, an energy-efficient luminaire system is designed for both a totally open-plan office interior and a partitioned office. A lighting design and analysis program, Lumen-Micro 2000 predicts the optimal layout of a conventional fluorescent lighting fixture to meet the designed lighting level and calculates unit power density, which translates the demanded amount of electric lighting energy. A dimming control system integrated with the contribution of daylighting has been applied to the operating of the artificial lighting. Annual cooling load due to lighting and the projecting saving amount of cooling load due to daylighting under overcast diffuse sky are evaluated by a computer software, ENER-Win. In brief, the results from building energy simulation with measured daylight illumination levels and the performance of lighting control system indicate that daylighting can save over 70 percent of the required energy for general illumination in the perimeter zones through the year. A 25 % of electric energy for cooling may be saved by dimming and turning off the luminaires in the perimeter zones.

Study on EMTP Simulation Applying Dual Reactor for Prevention of the Ferro-resonance and VT Burnout in Substation System

  • Kim, Seok-kon;An, Yong-ho;Jang, Byung-tae;Choi, Jong-kee;Lee, Nam-ho;Han, Jung-yeol;Lee, You-jin
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2015
  • When the line and switchgear of the substation system are disconnected, ferro-resonance can occur. This happens even if the capacitive reactance and inductive reactance are not equal, which are not common resonance conditions. Resonance conditions vary depending on the busbar configuration environment. Although the damping resistance method applying the existing saturable reactor to cope with ferro-resonance has been successfully applied on site, there can be loss of normal function during long-term operation. The reason is because the rise in the operating frequency of saturable reactors means the saturation number is increased. Therefore, it can no longer function as saturable reactor since the resistor having inadequate capacity is burned out. To address this problem, in this paper, an EMTP-based simulation test was performed by designing and applying a dual reactor method, which adds an extended divergence reactor to the 1st side of the VT. The test result confirms that when the divergence reactor is inserted, the voltage and current values obtained at the 1st side and 2nd side of the VT as well as current values of divergence reactor part were stabilized from the transient phenomena and return to normal values. When compared with existing measures, although this method is similar in adding having a reactor added to a system regarding ferro-resonance, it has the advantage of being able to prevent ferro-resonance in advance since the reactor is added before the system is saturated. In addition, because it does not use damping resistance, it can extend the equipment life and stabilize its operation. Therefore, there are a lot of differences in terms of its operating characteristics and achivement of goal between the conventional method and new divergence reactor method.

Probability-Based Performance Prediction of the Nuclear Contaminated Bio-Logical Shield Concrete Walls (원전 방사화 콘크리트 차폐벽의 확률 기반 성능변화 예측)

  • Kwon, Ki-Hyon;Kim, Do-Gyeum;Lee, Ho-Jae;Seo, Eun-A;Lee, Jang-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.316-322
    • /
    • 2019
  • A probabilistic approach considering uncertainties was employed to investigate the effects on the material characteristics and strength of nuclear bio-logical shield concrete walls, when exposed to long-term radiation during the entire service life. Time-dependent compressive and tensile strengths were estimated by conducting the neutron fluence analysis. For the contaminated concrete, individual compressive and tensile failure probabilities can be possibly evaluated by not only establishing limit-state function withthe predefined critical values but also performing Monte Carlo Simulation. Nuclear power plant types similar to the Kori Unit 1, which was shut off permanently in 2017 after the 40-year operation, were herein selected for an illustrative purpose. Consequently, the probability-based performance assessment and prediction of contaminated concrete walls were well demonstrated.

A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural Population Forecasting Model and long-term Prediction (농가인구예측 모형 개발 및 중장기 전망)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.16 no.6
    • /
    • pp.3797-3806
    • /
    • 2015
  • A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.

A Long-term Durability Prediction for RC Structures Exposed to Carbonation Using Probabilistic Approach (확률론적 기법을 이용한 탄산화 RC 구조물의 내구성 예측)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Gyu-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.14 no.5
    • /
    • pp.119-127
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

Guaranteed Reserve Projections for the Guaranteed Interest Contract of Collective DC Funds (통합운영 DC의 이율보증 준비금 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Joo-Ho;Seo, Dong-Won;Lee, Dong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.57-63
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study suggests the level of guaranteed reserves that should be accumulated in order to provide guaranteed interest contracts to pension members. To calculate the guaranteed reserve, this study employs the method using variable insurance contracts with guaranteed interest options. The average return of three major pensions (national pension, private teacher's pension, civil servants pension) funds, from 2010 to 2018, is set as the target rate of return and then we establish 0%, 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% each as our minimum guaranteed returns for their respective guaranteed reserves. Our results firstly show that gaps between each guaranteed reserves are increasing as times goes on. Second, the probability of shortfall reserve is on the decrease as the pension fund is mature. Conclusively, a long-term conservative balance between risk and return is one of the best investing strategies in pension funds providing the guaranteed interest.