• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term simulation

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An Agent Based Simulation Model for the Analysis of Team Formation (팀 결성 분석을 위한 행위자 기반 시뮬레이션 모형)

  • Yee, Soung-Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2010
  • Agent based simulation is an approach for the analysis of a system's long term behavior where the entities in the system behave independently by their own judgement and memory, but influence each other to cope with given environment. In this paper we developed an agent based simulation model for the analysis of behavioral mechanism of team formation. In the process of team formation members' mutual preference is an important factor although each member can join up with one's own will. Also a team performance can vary by the member's own experience. We implemented the developed model using Netlogo 4.1, and verified the model by simulation. From the simulation results we found that the model successfully performed necessary functions using behavioral rules, judgments, and evolutionary processes by memory. As a further study we will be able to apply the model for analyzing various ecological behavior of team formation.

Prediction and Historical Analysis of Long-term Bed Elevation Change in the Mankyung-gang River (만경강의 장기하상변동 예측 및 이력분석)

  • Kim, Seung Ki;Kim, Ji Sung;Kim, Kyu Ho;Choi, Sung-Uk
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2018
  • This study presents prediction and historical analysis of the long-term bed elevation change in the Mankyung-gang River. The study area is a 25 km long reach including middle and lower courses of the Mankyung-gang River. HEC-RAS program was used for numerical predictions, and values of roughness coefficients were calibrated. Then, predictions were made in the two periods, seven years from 1986 to 1993 and twelve years from 1993 to 2005. Simulation results were compared with two sets of measured data for bed elevations. Four sediment transport formulas, namely MPM's, Toffaleti's, MPM-Toffaleti's, and Yang's formula, were tested. Simulation results showed that none of the four sediment transport formulas predicted the bed elevation change in the period of 1986 - 1993. This is related to the fact that dredging work was performed in the upstream reach in the period of 1986 - 1993, and sediment was deposited in this part severely later. However, it was found that MPM-Toffaleti's formula predicted properly the bed elevation change for the period of 1993 - 2005.

Research on make-or-buy decision making strategy using system dynamics: Focused on Korea's military improvement project (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 제조-구매 결정 전략: 한국의 방위력 개선 사업을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jeong-Hwan;Ko, Seong-Pil;Lee, Jeong-Dong
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.159-182
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    • 2012
  • Strategic decision on the execution of national security improvement project is greatly important for the present and future national security. Though, the importance of strategic decision, decision making process has been executed under one-way thinking framework. This research provides a decision-making tool with make-or-buy approach for the national security improvement policy execution methods: foreign purchase and military R&D project, and, via simulation, confirms dynamic change of military capability index respect to change in ratio of foreign purchase and military R&D. A result shows that current ratio of foreign purchases and military R&D is insufficient for national security improvement policy goal. Applying the model from this research provides an appropriate ratio for short term and long term defense strategy and policy goal, and consequent result of increase in national security capability. Thus, this research model can be effectively utilized for national security improvement project.

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Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation (농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Yong;Nam, Won-Ho;Kim, Tae-Gon;Go, Gwang-Don
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2012
  • Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

Characteristic analysis of solar radiation and atmospheric transmissivity at Chupungryeong (추풍령의 일사량과 대기투과율의 특성 분석)

  • Park, Jin Ki;Kim, Bong Seop;Park, Jong Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2014
  • The surface solar radiation is an important indicators for climate and agricultural research over the Earth system. For the climate and agricultural research, long-term meteorological data and accurate measured data are needed. The daily solar radiation from Jan. 2001 to Dec. 2010 have been employed in this study analyze atmospheric transmissivity for Chupungryeong. The corresponding daily value of atmospheric transmissivity is calculated for Chupungryeong meteorological data. In this paper, relationship analysis of daily solar radiation and atmospheric transmissivity is presented. It shows that atmospheric transmissivity over late December peaked in the 2000s, substantially decreased from the early-January, and changed little after that in summer. Reduction of solar radiation caused a reduction of more than 0.3 in atmospheric transmissivity during July to August. It was concluded that the atmospheric transmissivity could be very useful for evaluating solar radiation. Atmospheric transmissivity approach is suitable for daily-term simulation studies and useful for computing solar radiation.

Coordinated Control of Reactive Power between STATCOMs and Wind Farms for PCC Voltage Regulation

  • Nguyen, Thanh Hai;Lee, Dong-Choon;Van, Tan Luong;Kang, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.909-918
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    • 2013
  • This paper proposes a coordinated control of the reactive power between the STATCOMs (static synchronous compensators) and the grid-side converters (GSC) of wind farms equipped with PMSGs (permanent-magnet synchronous generators), by which the voltage fluctuations at the PCC (point of common coupling) are mitigated in the steady state. In addition, the level of voltage sags is reduced during grid faults. To do this, the GSC and the STATCOM supply reactive power to the grid coordinately, where the GSCs are fully utilized to provide the reactive power for the grid prior to the STATCOM operation. For this, the GSC capability of delivering active and reactive power under variable wind speed conditions is analyzed in detail. In addition, the PCC voltage regulation of the power systems integrated with large wind farms are analyzed for short-term and long-term operations. With this coordinated control scheme, the low power capacity of STATCOMs can be used to achieve the low-voltage ride-through (LVRT) capability of the wind farms during grid faults. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy has been verified by PSCAD/EMTDC simulation results.

A Study on the Radioactive Products of Components in Proton Accelerator on Short Term Usage Using Computed Simulation (몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 양성자가속기 단기사용 시 구성품의 방사화 평가)

  • Bae, Sang-Il;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2020
  • The evaluation of radioactivated components of heavy-ion accelerator facilities affects the safety of radiation management and the exposure dose for workers. and this is an important issue when predicting the disposal cost of waste during maintenance and dismantling of accelerator facilities. In this study, the FLUKA code was used to simulate the proton treatment device nozzle and classify the radio-nuclides and total radioactivity generated by each component over a short period of time. The source term was evaluated using NIST reference beam data, and the neutron flux generated for each component was calculated using the evaluated beam data. Radioactive isotopes caused by generated neutrons were compared and evaluated using nuclide information from the International Radiation Protection Association and the Korea Radioisotope association. Most of the nuclides produced form of beta rays and electron capture, and short-lived nuclides dominated. However, In the case of 54Mn, which is a radioactive product of iron, the effect of gamma rays should be considered. In the case of tritium generated from a material with a low atomic number, it is considered that handling care should be taken due to its long half-life.

An Analysis of Data Traffic Considering the Delay and Cell Loss Probability (지연시간과 손실율을 고려한 데이터 트래픽 분석)

  • Lim Seog -Ku
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.7-11
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    • 2004
  • There are many problems that must solve to construct next generation high-speed communication network. Among these, item that must consider basically is characteristics analysis of traffic that nows to network Traffic characteristics of many Internet services that is offered present have shown that network traffic exhibits at a wide range of scals-self-similarity. Self-similarity is expressed by long term dependency, this is contradictory concept with Poisson model that have relativity short term dependency. Therefore, first of all, for design and dimensioning of next generation communication network, traffic model that are reflected burstiness and self-similarity is required. Here self-similarity can be characterized by Hurst parameter. In this paper, the calculation equation is derived considering queueing delay and self-similarity of data traffic art compared with simulation results.

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Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Improved Extreme Learning Machine

  • Tian, Zhongda;Ren, Yi;Wang, Gang
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.1841-1851
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    • 2018
  • For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

Modeling of combined thermal and mechanical action in roller compacted concrete dam by three-dimensional finite element method

  • Abdulrazeg, A.A.;Noorzaei, J.;Mohammed, T.A.;Jaafar, M.S.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2013
  • A combined thermal and mechanical action in roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam analysis is carried out using a three-dimensional finite element method. In this work a numerical procedure for the simulation of construction process and service life of RCC dams is presented. It takes into account the more relevant features of the behavior of concrete such as hydration, ageing and creep. A viscoelastic model, including ageing effects and thermal dependent properties is adopted for the concrete. The different isothermal temperature influence on creep and elastic modulus is taken into account by the maturity concept, and the influence of the change of temperature on creep is considered by introducing a transient thermal creep term. Crack index is used to assess the risk of occurrence of crack either at short or long term. This study demonstrates that, the increase of the elastic modulus has been accelerated due to the high temperature of hydration at the initial stage, and consequently stresses are increased.