• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.189-192
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• 2005

In recent years, many research works have been carried out in order to obtain a more controlled durability and long-term performance of concrete structures in chloride containing environments. In particular, the development of new procedures for probability-based durability analysis/design has proved to be very valuable. In this paper, the equation used for modelling of the chloride penetration was based on Fick's Second Law of Diffusion in combination with a time dependent diffusion coefficient. The probability analysis of the durability performance was performed by use of a Monte Carlo Simulation. The procedure was applied to an example based on limited data gathered in this country. The influences of each parameter on the durability of concrete structures are studied and some comments for durability design are given. The new procedure may be very useful in designing concrete structures in chloride containing environments.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.53-61
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• 2009

Green Building Certification System currently going into effect is a static evaluation model. Therefore, as far as the sustainable development of certification system is concerned, further long-term evaluation is required. The main purpose of this study is to offer a model in a way of developing and verifying a dynamic model in Green Building Certification. A dynamic model development has been given System Dynamics based on the causal structure. Thus, this study focused on searching the causal structure of certification criteria and verifying the reality of the model through simulation processing after developing a model. In conclusion, the development of dynamic evaluation method can be attributed to systematic evaluation for the criteria of Certification System.

• Water for future
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.307-313
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• 1989

This study is aimed to develop a long-term daily runoff simulation model. The model is theoretically constructed and is applied to the practical problems to verify its reasonableness. A lumped, nonlinear model is proposed and is calibrated as quasilinearization procedures. The hydrological data used in the paper are precipitation, runoff, and evaporation records in the Bochong Stream which is one of the tributaries of the Geum River.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.172-173
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• 2007

As the power density and switching frequency increase, thermal analysis of power electronics system becomes imperative. The thermal analysis provides valuable information on the semiconductor rating, long-term reliability. In this paper, thermal distribution of the Non Punchthrough(NPT) Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor has been studied. For analysis of thermal distribution, we obtained experimental and simulation results by using finite element simulator, Ansys and by using photographic infrared thermometer, we compared experimental date with simulation result. and got good agreement. Also this paper provided thermal distribution of IGBT connected to heat sinks. and this results will be good information to design optimal heat sink for IGBT.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 1989

This study presents rational methods for probability-based estimates of basic design wind speeds in Korea and proposes a risk-based nation-wide map of design wind speeds. The paper examines the fittings of the extreme Type I mode to largest yearly non-typhoon wind data from long-term records, and to largest monthly non-typhoon wind data from short-term records. For the estimation of the extreme typhoon wins speed distribution, an indirect analytical method based on a Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to typhoon-prone regions. The basic desig wind speeds for typhoon and non-typhoon winds at the sites of concern are made to be obtained from the mixed model given as a product of the two distributions. The results of this study show that the proposed models and methods provide a practicable tool for the development of the risk-based basic design wind speed and the design wind map from short-term station records currently available in Korea.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.183-189
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• 2010

In this study long term rainfall-runoff model, developed based on SSARR, was applied to Geum river basin and its simulation results of major control points were compared with the corresponding observed channel discharges. The validities of the simulation results were examined with re-measured discharges of those control points. From the above procedure the points showing the unreliable results were found out and its principal causes are analyzed through hydrological inspection of runoff characteristics of their circumstances. Finally the simulation results were modified by the consideration of the effects by small-scale hydraulic structures which could directly affect the channel discharges. As a result the annual runoff simulations of two major points in Geum river basin, Yongdam and Daecheong dam sites, work well. However the low flow simulation of the point located between them, Sutong station, showed more or less the unreliable result. Its causes are considered by means of the hydraulic/hydrological inspection of the corresponding point.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.533-544
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• 2020

In this paper, we conducted a dynamic ex-post assessment on the grape business cessation support System. Based on the analysis results, in the short term, there was an increase in grape price due to a decrease in production and accompanying increases in the prices of consumption substitution items. However, in the long run, grape prices fell again due to an increase in grape production because of the entry of new grape farmers and the growth of adult grape trees. In addition, the analysis showed that the balloon effect caused by the conversion of crops caused indirect damage such as an increase in the production volume of substitution crops and a decrease in prices. When analyzing the social welfare measurement, the results showed that the support system for business cessation increased the overall social welfare due to an increase in producer welfare because of a price increase in the short term, but in the long term, both producer and consumer welfare decreased. In the end, it is necessary to review the system because the government's intervention may cause market distortion and inefficient resource allocation. Above all, it is necessary to minimize the indirect effect of the industry's contraction and balloon effect due to excessive business cessation. For this, conditional support should be provided in parallel with post management rather than unconditional support. In addition, it is necessary to provide a strategic support system that considers substitution items in addition to those items to be supported.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.97-103
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• 2015

This paper has focused on the middle term process planning around quays based on the prefixed long-term plan of the product mixed ships. Recently, the order rate of high add-value ships in domestic shipyards has been sharply increased and the spending time at quays is accordingly on an increasing trend. For proper and practical process planning related to quays, it has to be closely connected with a long-term plan and product calendar, erection network and result of ship allocation around quays. Moreover, it is also required to include the integrated consideration of the whole process of a yard, each ship, and each team respectively. The most distinguishing feature of this study is that it would run on the ship allocation simulator and GIS framework in order not to be limited to the specific one yard and the readers can figure out the optimization formulation containing the work load leveling and a different approach from PERT/CPM. The proposed approach reflected all requirements from the department of process planning and management in a shipyard, and the analysis of the results has explained its performance of the optimization result with the examples of total 43 ships under construction from 2008 to 2013.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.19-26
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• 2023

The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.50-58
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• 2018

Intermittent demand is a demand with a pattern in which zero demands occur frequently and non-zero demands occur sporadically. This type of demand mainly appears in spare parts with very low demand. Croston's method, which is an initiative intermittent demand forecasting method, estimates the average demand by separately estimating the size of non-zero demands and the interval between non-zero demands. Such smoothing type of forecasting methods can be suitable for mid-term or long-term demand forecasting because those provides the same demand forecasts during the forecasting horizon. However, the smoothing type of forecasting methods aims at short-term forecasting, so the estimated average forecast is a factor to decrease accuracy. In this paper, we propose a forecasting method to improve short-term accuracy by improving Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed forecasting method estimates both the non-zero demand size and the zero demands' interval separately, as in Croston's method, but the forecast at a future period adjusted by binomial weight according to occurrence probability. This serves to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts. In this paper, we first prove the unbiasedness of the proposed method as an important attribute in forecasting. The performance of the proposed method is compared with those of five existing forecasting methods via eight evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method is superior to other methods in terms of all evaluation criteria in short-term forecasting regardless of average size and dispersion parameter of demands. However, the larger the average demand size and dispersion are, that is, the closer to continuous demand, the less the performance gap with other forecasting methods.