• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.175-185
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• 2023

As drought risk increases due to climate change, various research works are underway around the world to respond to drought so as to minimize drought damage. In particular, in recent years, many studies are focused on analyzing regional patterns of drought in a comprehensive manner, however there is still insufficient to quantitatively identify drought-risk areas in a large river basin considering climate change in Korea. In this study, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (M_SPI) as representative meteorological drought index, and performed spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify the drought hotspot region under climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for each observation station within the study area, whereas the M_SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for the entire study area. It is more reasonable to use the M_SPI for assessing meteorological drought from an overall perspective within the study area. When the M_SPI was used, long-term droughts showed drought hotspot areas clearly larger than short-term droughts. In addition, the drought hotspot area moved from the center of the Nakdong River basin to the Seomjin River basin over time. Especially, the moving patterns of the short-term/long-term drought were apparent under the RCP 4.5, whereas the moving patterns of the long-term drought were distinct under the RCP 8.5 scenarios.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.433-446
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• 2021

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.233-241
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• 2020

We examined long-term variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and annual amplitudes of SST around the Korean Peninsula. Two SST data sets with data periods of approximately 51 years and longer than 100 years, respectively, were obtained from the National Institute of Fisheries Science and Japan Meteorological Agency. SST of Korean waters clearly increased during last 51 years (1968-2018), which was 2.5 times higher than the global trend. This significant increasing trend was caused by the dominant increasing SST trend during winter. However, a negative and positive SST anomaly frequently appeared during winter and summer, respectively, in a recent decade. These features of seasonal SST variation have changed the annual amplitude of SST, and resulted in a drastically increasing trend after 2009. Using the longer SST data set, it was revealed that the decreasing SST trend in winter began in the 2000s and the increasing SST trend in summer bagan in the 1990s. During a recent decade, there was a distinctive SST increase in summer, whereas a clear decrease in winter. In summary, the annual amplitude of SST around the Korean Peninsula significantly changed from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend during a recent decade.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.38-47
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• 2011

Groundwater monitoring data from the National Groundwater Monitoring Stations, a total of 320 stations, were analyzed to identify the response of water level and quality to the Odaesan earthquake (M4.9) occurred in January 2007. Among the total of eight stations responded to the earthquake, five wells showed water-level decline, and in three wells, water level rose. In terms of recovery, water levels in four stations had recovered to the original level in five days, but not in the rest four wells. The magnitude of water-level change shows weak relations to the distance between the earthquake epicenter and the groundwater monitoring station. However, the relations to the transmissivities of monitored aquifer in the station with the groundwater change were not significant. To implement the earthquake monitoring system through the groundwater monitoring network, we still need to accumulate the long-term monitoring data and geostatistically analyze those with hydrogeological and tectonic factors.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.331-344
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• 2012

The changes in the Hadley circulation during the second half of the 20th century were examined using observations and the 20C3M (Twentieth Century Climate in Coupled Models) simulations by the 21 IPCC AR4 models. Multi-model ensemble (MME) mean shows that the mean features of the Hadley circulation, such as the intensity, magnitude, and the seasonal variations, are very realistically reproduced, compared to the ERA40 reanalysis. But the long-term trends of the Hadley circulation in 20C3M MME are quite different to those of observations. The observed intensity of the Hadley cell is persistently enhanced, particularly during boreal winter. In comparison, the meridional overturning circulations reproduced in the MME mean remains invariant in time, and even weakened in boreal summer. This discrepancy between the ERA40 and 20C3M MME is consistently shown in the overall structure of the Hadley circulations, such as mass streamfunction, the velocity potential, the vertical shear of meridional wind, and the vertical velocity in the tropical region. This results indicate that the current climate models are skill-less to capture the long-term trend of Hadley circulation yet, and should be improved in simulation of the large-scale features to enhance the confidence level of future climate change projection.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.3-20
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• 1990

The multisector model is designed to analyze and forecast structural change in industrial output, employment, capital and relative price as well as macroeconomic change in aggregate income, interest rate, etc. This model has 25 industrial sectors, containing about 1,300 equations. Therefore, this model is characterized by detailed structural disaggregation at the sectoral level. Individual industries are based on many of the economic relationships in the model. This is what distinguishes a multisector model from a macroeconomic model. Each industry is a behavioral agent in the model for industrial investment, employment, prices, wages, and intermediate demand. The strength of the model lies in the simulating the interactions between different industries. The result of its simulation will be introduced in the next paper. In this paper, we only introduce the structure of the multisector model and the coefficients of the equations. The multisector model is a dynamic model-that is, it solves year by year into the future using its own solutions for earlier years. The development of a dynamic, year-by-year solution allows us to combine the change in structure with a consideration of the dynamic adjustment required. These dynamics have obvious advantages in the use of the multisector model for industrial planning. The multisector model is a medium-term and long-term model. Whereas a short-term model can taken the labor supply and capital stock as given, a long-term model must acknowledge that these are determined endogenously. Changes in the medium-term can be analyzed in the context of long-term structural changes. The structure of this model can be summarized as follow. The difference in domestic and world prices affects industrial structure and the pattern of international trade; domestic output and factor price affect factor demand; factor demand and factor price affect industrial income; industrial income and relative price affect industrial consumption. Technical progress, as measured in terms of total factor productivity and relative price affect input-output coefficients; input-output coefficients and relative price determine the industrial input cost; input cost and import price determine domestic price. The differences in productivity and wage growth among different industries affect the relative price.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2013

Recent climate change, which is mostly ascribed to anthropogenic activities, is believed to be a major factor leading to biodiversity decreases and ecosystem service deteriorations. I have reviewed recent studies on climate change effects for many ecological processes involved with plants, in order to improve our understanding of the nature of ecological complexity. Plants in general have better growth and productivity under high levels of $CO_2$, although the long term effects of such $CO_2$ fertilizers are still controversial. Over the last 30 years, the Earth has been greening, particularly at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps due to a relaxation of climatic constraints. Human appropriation of net primary productivity (NPP), which corresponds up to 1/3 of global NPP, is ultimately responsible for climate change and biodiversity decreases. Climate change causes phenological variations in plants, especially in regards to spring flowering and fall leaf coloring. Many plants migrate polewards and towards higher altitudes to seek more appropriate climates. On the other hand, tree mortality and population declines have recently been reported in many continents. Landscape disturbance not only hinders the plant migration, but also makes it difficult to predict the plants' potential habitats. Plant and animal population declines, as well as local extinctions, are largely due to the disruption of species interactions through temporal mismatching. Temperature and $CO_2$ increase rates in Korea are higher than global means. The degree of landscape disturbances is also relatively high. Furthermore, long-term data on individual species responses and species interactions are lacking or quite limited in Korea. This review emphasizes the complex nature of species responses to climate change at both global and local scales. In order to keep pace with the direction and speed of climate change, it is urgently necessary to observe and analyze the patterns of phenology, migration, and trophic interactions of plants and animals in Korea's landscape.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.878-890
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to apply the PEOE class model that can enhance students' scientific creative problem-solving ability and self-directed learning ability in the middle school science subject and analyze the effects of it on students' long- and short-term retention, scientific creative problem-solving ability, and self-directed learning characteristics. And the paper has gained the following results: First, according to the result of analysis through the pre-test, post-test, and delay test to examine the effects of PEOE-based class on learners' long- and short-term retention, it is found to be statistically significant in the significant level of .05. In other words, the class using PEOE influences learners' short-term retention significantly, but it is even more effective in transmitting the concept that students acquire into their long-term memory. Second, according to the result of analysis through the pre-test and post-test to examine the effects of PEOE-based class on learners' scientific creative problem-solving ability, it is found to be statistically significant in the significant level of .05 in general. However, 'elaboration' and 'originality', the subfactors of scientific creative problem-solving ability, do not indicate significant effects. Third, according to the result of analysis through the pre-test and post-test to examine the effects of PEOE-based class on learners' self-directed learning characteristics, it is found to be statistically significant in the significant level of .05 as a whole. However, 'openness' and 'future-oriented self-understanding', the subfactors of self-directed learning characteristics, do not exert significant effects. Based on the above study results, it can be concluded that PEOE-based class is more effective for learners' academic achievement in science, scientific creative problem-solving ability, and self-directed learning characteristics than lecture-method instruction regarding the middle school science unit of 'The Properties of Air and Weather Change'.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.385-391
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• 2016

Objective : The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term follow-up radiologic/clinical outcomes of patients who underwent anterior cervical discectomy and inter-body fusion (ACDF) with stand-alone cages (SAC) in a single academic institution. Methods : Total 99 patients who underwent ACDF with SAC between February 2004 and December 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. A total of 131 segments were enrolled in this study. Basic demographic information, radiographic [segmental subsidence rate, fusion rate, C2-7 global angle, and segmental angle changes)/clinical outcomes (by Odom's criteria and visual analog score (VAS)] and complications were evaluated to determine the long-term outcomes. Results : The majority were males (55 vs. 44) with average age of 53.2. Mean follow-up period was 62.9 months. The segmental subsidence rate was 53.4% and fusion rate was 73.3%. In the subsidence group, anterior intervertebral height (AIH) had more tendency of subsiding than middle or posterior intervertebral height (p=0.01). The segmental angle led kyphotic change related to the subsidence of the AIH. Adjacent segmental disease was occurred in 18 (18.2%) patients. Total 6 (6%) reoperations were performed at the index level. There was no statistical significance between clinical and radiological outcomes. But, overall long-term clinical outcome by Odom's criteria was unsatisfactory (64.64%). The neck and arm VAS score were increased by over time. Conclusion : Long-term outcomes of ACDF with SAC group were acceptable but not satisfactory. For optimal decision making, more additional comparative long-term outcome data is needed between ACDF with SAC and ACDF with plating.

• Korean Journal of Bronchoesophagology
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.130-137
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• 1999

Background and Objectives : Provox, a recently developed tracheoesophageal prosthesis, had been widely used for voice rehabilitation after total laryngectomy for its low resistance and easiness of speech ability. But, long-term use of Provox resulted in many complications and resulted in cessation of Provox as a primary method of vocal rehabilitation. The aim of this study is to report Provox-related problems and the long-term results of Provox voice prosthesis. Materials and Methods : Medical records from patients who had undergone total laryngectomy with Provox insertion at seoul National University Hospital between January 1993 and December 1998 were reviewed retrospectively. Results : 36 patients had used 79 Provox voice prostheses during the observed period. The most common complication causing prosthesis change or removal was leakage and/or aspiration, followed by granulation formation, crusting and/or obstruction, and non-function. Median in situ lifetime of Provox was 274 days and 1-year-in situ rate was 31.0% Among 36 patients, 17 patients had undergone tracheoesophageal shunt closure at the last follow-up visit. 10 patients had complications but got along without further treatments, and 1 patient changed to Blom-Singer voice prosthesis. Only 8 patients experienced no complication, and 5 out of whom had several times of Provox change. Conclusion : long-term use of Provox resulted in discontinuation of its use due to complications in many cases. A better voice prosthesis with lower complication rate and longer in situ lifetime is needed.