• 제목/요약/키워드: long-run

검색결과 1,238건 처리시간 0.031초

Assessing Bank Competition in Nepal Using Panzar-Rosse Model

  • BUDHATHOKI, Prem Bahadur;RAI, Chandra Kumar;RAI, Arjun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권11호
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    • pp.759-768
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the state of competition in Nepalese banking over the period from 2010 to 2019. This study employs panel data and a non-structural Panzar-Rosse model to measure the degree of competition in the Nepalese banking industry. The first reduced-form equation is applied to gauge competition, and the second model is used to test the long-run equilibrium in the banking market. The finding reveals that the Nepalese banking market is equilibrium in the long-run. It implies that the factor prices do not affect ROA in the long-run. The result of the H-statistic shows that the Nepalese banking system is operating under the state of perfect competition and is shifted from monopolistic competition to perfect competition. The reduced-form model reveals that the interest income is positive and significantly affected by factor prices. Similarly, the macroeconomic variable GDP growth is positively related to interest income. On the contrary, the bank's specific factors risk and the number of bank branches are inversely associated with the regressand. The outcomes of the study may be advantageous to the policymakers, especially to Nepal Rastra Bank to implement monetary policy and M&A policy for the stability and growth of the financial system of Nepal.

Numerical validation of Multiplex Acceleration Model for earthquake induced landslides

  • Zheng, Lu;Chen, Guangqi;Zen, Kouki;Kasama, Kiyonobu
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2012
  • Due to strong ground motion of earthquake, the material in the landslide can travel a significant distance from the source. A new landslide model called Multiplex Acceleration Model (MAM) has been proposed to interpret the mechanism of long run-out movement of this type of landslide, considering earthquake behaviors on slope and landslide materials. In previous study, this model was verified by a shaking table test. However, there is a scale limitation of shaking table test to investigate MAM in detail. Thus, numerical simulation was carried out in this study to validate MAM under full scale. A huge rock ejected and A truck threw upwards by seismic force during Wenchuan Earthquake (Ms. 8.0) was discussed based on the simulation results. The results indicate that collisions in P-phase of earthquake and trampoline effect are important behaviors to interpret the mechanism of long run-out and high velocity. The results show that MAM is acceptable and applicable.

Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ecological Footprint in Malaysia: Testing EKC and PHH

  • MEHRAAEIN, Mahmood;AFROZ, Rafia;RAHMAN, Mehe Zebunnesa;MUHIBBULLAH, Md
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.583-593
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of economic growth (per capita real GDP), the square of per capita real GDP, energy use, financial development (FD), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on ecological footprint (EF) in the case of Malaysia over the period 1971-2014, by employing the ARDL approach. The long-run results revealed that economic growth has a significant positive impact on the ecological footprint and it implies that the economic growth deteriorates the environmental quality in Malaysia. Conversely, the square of GDP showed a negative and significant impact on the EF in the long run. As the coefficient of GDP in our study is positive and statistically significant while the coefficient of squared GDP is negatively significant, thus, this study supports the presence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the case of Malaysia. Furthermore, the result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant impact on the EF in the long run, which means a rise in FDI will enhance the environmental pollution level. Thus, it confirms the pollution haven hypothesis. Hence, it suggests that Malaysia imposes stricter environmental policies. Further, FDI and FD are causing GDP in Malaysia, but through increasing EF.

한국의 광의통화(M2)와 광의유동성(L)에 대한 화폐수요의 장기적 안정성 검정 (The Long-Run Demand for Monetary Indicator M2 and Liquidity Indicator L - Case in Korea -)

  • 김종구
    • 국제지역연구
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.171-194
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    • 2008
  • 이 논문은 1980:1-2006:3분기간 자료를 이용하여 한국의 광의통화(M2)와 광의유동성(L)에 대한 개방형 화폐수요함수를 계절성과 외환위기를 고려한 공적분 검정 및 오차수정모형으로 분석하였다. 실증 분석결과 한국의 광의통화(M2)와 광의유동성(L)은 실질소득, 회사채수익률, 인플레이션 불확실성, 실질실효환율, 환율불확실성, LIBOR금리간 공적분 관계가 존재하여 이들 변수들 사이에 안정적인 장기균형관계가 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 광의통화(M2)변동은 환율불확실성 변화에 가장 크게 의존하며 LIBOR금리 변화와 미세하지만 실질실효환율 및 소득변화에 의해 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 광의유동성(L)의 경우에는 환율불확실성의 변화에 가장 크게 의존하며 광의유동성 수요와 실질소득변화에 의해서도 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으나, 회사채수익률, 인플레이션불확실성, 실질실효환율, LIBOR금리 등의 변화에 의해서는 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 밝혀졌다.

Ready-Made Garments (RMG) Export Earnings and Economic Development of Bangladesh: Empirical Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model

  • JIBAN, Abul Jannat;BISWAS, Gautam Kumar;YANG, Shaohua
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권10호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2022
  • Ready-made Garments (RMG) export earnings, which are almost 80% of the total exports of Bangladesh, have been recognized as one of the main catalysts for the recent development of the country. Therefore, the need to determine whether the RMG export had served as a mechanism for increasing the GDP growth as well as the economic development of the country is topical and pressing. We have applied the Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to reveal the linkage of RMG export earnings and other variables with the GDP growth rate in Bangladesh. Using data from 1990 to 2020 for Bangladesh, we have found long-run as well as short-run associations among RMG Export earnings, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and GDP growth. A co-integration among the variables is validated through the Johansen Co-integration test. Moreover, a causal correlation running from RMG export earnings to GDP was revealed by the Granger causality test in the long run. Finally, we estimated impulse response functions to observe the variations of model variables in response to a shock. Our result supports the proposition that RMG export earnings are one of the main growth engines in Bangladesh and this sector leads growth in other sectors also in the long term.

Laying Off Versus Training Workers: How Can Saudi Entrepreneurs Manage the COVID-19 Crisis?

  • RAIES, Asma;BEN MIMOUN, Mohamed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.673-685
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to determine theoretically the best workers layoff/training strategy that entrepreneurs should apply to manage the COVID-19 crisis successfully. It also examines the impacts of the Saudi government's emergency measures on firm performance. The paper develops a theoretical framework in which the optimal control technics is applied to model the entrepreneur's hiring, layoff, and training behaviors. The results show that, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, the entrepreneur should first lay off the less productive workers to reduce labor costs. As more and more inefficient workers quit and profit increases, the entrepreneur starts expanding his activity and training workers. In the long run, only the training activity allows the firm efficiency to grow at a constant rate. This finding suggests that the key to long-run economic recovery in Saudi Arabia will rely on training, innovation, and adaptability to the new digital environment. The paper also shows that the Saudi government initiative of covering 60% of salaries for the small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs during the COVID-19 pandemic will enhance training activities in small- and medium-sized enterprises and improve their efficiency in both the short and long run. This policy will also prevent Saudi entrepreneurs from laying off half of their staff.

Macro-Economic Factors Affecting the Vietnam Stock Price Index: An Application of the ARDL Model

  • DAO, Hoang Tuan;VU, Le Hang;PHAM, Thanh Lam;NGUYEN, Kim Trang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2022
  • Using the ARDL approach, this study examined the impact of macro factors on Vietnam's stock market in the short and long run from 2010 to 2021. The State Bank of Vietnam and the International Monetary Fund provided time series data for this study. Research results show that in the long run, money supply and exchange rate respectively affect the stock market. The money supply had a positive effect on the VN-Index, while the exchange rate showed the opposite effect. However, the study did not find a relationship between world oil price and interest rates on VN-Index in the long run. On the other hand, in the short term, there are relationships between variables; specifically, interest rates and exchange rates have a negative impact on the VN-Index, while the world oil price and the fluctuation of money supply M2 of the previous one and two months showed an impact in the same direction on this index. The differences in the regression results on the impact of exchange rate and oil price on the VN-Index compared to previous studies come from the characteristics of Vietnam's stock market, with the large capitalization of companies in the oil and gas sector, and the structure of Vietnam's economy with export heavily depends on FDI sector.

농업 생산과 농작물 가격에 관한 균형 모델 (Equilibrium Model in Price Behavior and Agricultural Production)

  • 이상율
    • 한국지역지리학회지
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.748-756
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    • 2006
  • 본연구는 생산과 수요 양면을 고려한 농업입지모델에서 농작물 시장가격의 단기 및 장기적 변화를 고찰한다. 농작물 가격과 생산량의 단기적 변화 상황은 생산량의 연간 변화량에 의해서 결정되는 것으로 파악하면서 수리적 모형을 제시한다. 장기적 모형에서 농작물의 가격은 여러 가지 농업을 둘러싼 환경 및 변수(수요, 생산량, 생산비용, 운송률)의 변화를 고려하였다. 또한 예상 수익 모델(expected return model)과 보장 수익 모델(guaranteed return model)을 각각 제시하면서, 농작물의 생산량과 가격의 장기적 변화를 조사한다. 농작물 가격 하락은 지대 및 토지 가격의 하락과 관련된다.

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Sectoral Contribution to Economic Development in India: A Time-Series Co-Integration Analysis

  • SOLANKI, Sandip;INUMULA, Krishna Murthy;CHITNIS, Asmita
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권9호
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2020
  • This research paper examines the causal relationship between India's economic growth and sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vice versa, in the short-run and long-run, over a 10 years time period. Johansen's method of cointegration is used to study the cointegration between the sectoral contributions to Indian GDP vis-à-vis India's economic growth. Further, the route of interconnection between economic growth and sectoral contribution is tested by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Special attention was given for investigating impulse responses of economic growth depending on the innovations in sectoral contribution using time-series data from 1960 to 2015. This paper highlighted a dynamic co-relationship among industrial sector contribution and agricultural sector contribution and economic development. In the long run, one percent change in industrial sector contribution causes an increase of 3.42 percent in the economic growth and an increase of 1.12 percent in the primary sector contribution, while in the short run industrial and service sector contributions showed significant impact on economic development and agriculture sector. The changing composition of sector contribution is going to be an important activity for the policymakers to monitor and control where the technology and integration of sectors play a significant role in economic development.

경기동행과 후행 관계에서 실업률 변동성향의 추정 (Estimations for Unemployment Rate Variations in Business Coincident and Lagging Framework)

  • 김태호;정재화
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2012
  • 통계청의 고용통계는 고용환경의 변화와 관련된 정보는 제공하지 않으며, 실업이 경기변동에 따라 변화하지만 함께 발표되는 월간산업동향과 관련된 분석은 제대로 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 고용환경의 급변시 우리 사회의 주요 관심사인 실업 및 실망실업의 성향을 국내외 가격변수와 연계해 경기동행과 경기후행의 관계 안에서 통계적으로 분석하였다. 실망실업률은 일반 실업률에 비해 단기적 불균형에서 장기균형으로의 회복 속도가 빠르며, 특히 대부분 변수들의 변화에 상대적으로 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 추정되어 현실을 대변하는 의미있는 통계지표임을 시사한다.