• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-358
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• 2015

Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.310-318
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• 2018

Recently, the importance of big data analysis is increasing as a large amount of data is generated by various devices connected to the Internet with the advent of Internet of Things (IoT). Especially, it is necessary to analyze various large-scale IoT streaming sensor data generated in real time and provide various services through new meaningful prediction. This paper proposes a real-time indoor PM10 concentration prediction LSTM model based on streaming data generated from IoT sensor using AWS. We also construct a real-time indoor PM10 concentration prediction service based on the proposed model. Data used in the paper is streaming data collected from the PM10 IoT sensor for 24 hours. This time series data is converted into sequence data consisting of 30 consecutive values from time series data for use as input data of LSTM. The LSTM model is learned through a sliding window process of moving to the immediately adjacent dataset. In order to improve the performance of the model, incremental learning method is applied to the streaming data collected every 24 hours. The linear regression and recurrent neural networks (RNN) models are compared to evaluate the performance of LSTM model. Experimental results show that the proposed LSTM prediction model has 700% improvement over linear regression and 140% improvement over RNN model for its performance level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.85-96
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• 2019

Solar radiation is an important variable for estimation of energy balance and water cycle in natural and agricultural ecosystems. A deep neural network (DNN) model has been developed in order to estimate the daily global solar radiation. Temperature and precipitation, which would have wider availability from weather stations than other variables such as sunshine duration, were used as inputs to the DNN model. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to train and test the DNN models. Meteorological data at 15 weather stations were collected for a long term period, e.g., > 30 years in Korea. The DNN model obtained from the cross-validation had relatively small value of RMSE ($3.75MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$) for estimates of the daily solar radiation at the weather station in Suwon. The DNN model explained about 68% of variation in observed solar radiation at the Suwon weather station. It was found that the measurements of solar radiation in 1985 and 1998 were considerably low for a small period of time compared with sunshine duration. This suggested that assessment of the quality for the observation data for solar radiation would be needed in further studies. When data for those years were excluded from the data analysis, the DNN model had slightly greater degree of agreement statistics. For example, the values of $R^2$ and RMSE were 0.72 and $3.55MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. Our results indicate that a DNN would be useful for the development a solar radiation estimation model using temperature and precipitation, which are usually available for downscaled scenario data for future climate conditions. Thus, such a DNN model would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production where solar radiation is used as a required input variable to a crop model.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.5_3
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• pp.925-938
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• 2022

Agricultural reservoirs are an important water resource nationwide and vulnerable to abnormal climate effects such as drought caused by climate change. Therefore, it is required enhanced management for appropriate operation. Although water-level tracking is necessary through continuous monitoring, it is challenging to measure and observe on-site due to practical problems. This study presents an objective comparison between multiple AI models for water-body extraction using radar images that have the advantages of wide coverage, and frequent revisit time. The proposed methods in this study used Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, and unlike common methods of water extraction based on optical images, they are suitable for long-term monitoring because they are less affected by the weather conditions. We built four AI models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) using drone images, sentinel-1 SAR and DSM data. There are total of 22 reservoirs of less than 1 million tons for the study, including small and medium-sized reservoirs with an effective storage capacity of less than 300,000 tons. 45 images from 22 reservoirs were used for model training and verification, and the results show that the AutoML model was 0.01 to 0.03 better in the water Intersection over Union (IoU) than the other three models, with Accuracy=0.92 and mIoU=0.81 in a test. As the result, AutoML performed as well as the classical machine learning methods and it is expected that the applicability of the water-body extraction technique by AutoML to monitor reservoirs automatically.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.59-69
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• 2013

This study presents development of the ANN simulator for well placement of infill drilling in gas fields. The input data of the ANN simulator includes the production time, well location, all inter well distances, boundary inter well distance, infill well position, productivity potential, functional links, reservoir pressure. The output data includes the bottomhole pressure in addition to the production rate. Thus, it is possible to calculate the productivity and bottomhole pressure during production period simultaneously, and it is expected that this model could replace conventional simulators. Training for the 20 well placement scenarios was conducted. As a result, it was found that accuracy of ANN simulator was high as the coefficient of correlation for production rate was 0.99 and the bottomhole pressure 0.98 respectively. From the resultes, the validity of the ANN simulator has been verified. The term, which could produce Maximum Daily Quantity (MDQ) at the gas field and the productivity according to the well location was analyzed. As a result, the MDQ could be maintained for a short time in scenario C-1, which has the three infill wells nearby aquifer boundary, and a long time in scenario A-1. In conclusion, it was found that scenario A maintained the MDQ up to 21% more than those of scenarios B and C which include parameters that might affect the productivity. Thus, the production rate can be maximized by selecting the location of production wells in comprehensive consideration of parameters that may affect the productivity. Also, because the developed ANN simulator could calculate both production rate and bottomhole pressure, respectively, it could be used as the forward simulator in a various inverse model.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.153-163
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• 2017

This research is based on the previous research that personally preferred safe distance, rotating angle and speed are differentiated. Thus, we use machine learning model for recognizing maneuvering modes trained per personal or per similar driving pattern groups, and we evaluate automatic driving according to maneuvering modes. By utilizing driving knowledge, we subdivided 8 kinds of longitudinal modes and 4 kinds of lateral modes, and by combining the longitudinal and lateral modes, we build 21 kinds of maneuvering modes. we train the labeled data set per time stamp through RNN, LSTM and Bi-LSTM models by the trips of drivers, which are supervised deep learning models, and evaluate the maneuvering modes of automatic driving for the test data set. The evaluation dataset is aggregated of living trips of 3,000 populations by VTTI in USA for 3 years and we use 1500 trips of 22 people and training, validation and test dataset ratio is 80%, 10% and 10%, respectively. For recognizing longitudinal 8 kinds of maneuvering modes, RNN achieves better accuracy compared to LSTM, Bi-LSTM. However, Bi-LSTM improves the accuracy in recognizing 21 kinds of longitudinal and lateral maneuvering modes in comparison with RNN and LSTM as 1.54% and 0.47%, respectively.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.435-447
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• 2019

In order to prevent unnecessary re-admission, it is necessary to intensively manage the groups with high probability of re-admission. For this, it is necessary to develop a re-admission prediction model. Two - year discharge summary data of one university hospital were collected from 2016 to 2017 to develop a predictive model of re-admission. In this case, the re-admitted patients were defined as those who were discharged more than once during the study period. We conducted descriptive statistics and crosstab analysis to identify the characteristics of rehospitalized patients. The re-admission prediction model was developed using logistic regression, neural network, and decision tree. AUC (Area Under Curve) was used for model evaluation. The logistic regression model was selected as the final re-admission predictive model because the AUC was the best at 0.81. The main variables affecting the selected rehospitalization in the logistic regression model were Residental regions, Age, CCS, Charlson Index Score, Discharge Dept., Via ER, LOS, Operation, Sex, Total payment, and Insurance. The model developed in this study was limited to generalization because it was two years data of one hospital. It is necessary to develop a model that can collect and generalize long-term data from various hospitals in the future. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop a model that can predict the re-admission that was not planned.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

Deep learning is used as a creative tool that could overcome the limitations of existing analysis models and generate various types of results such as text, image, and music. In this paper, we propose a method necessary to preprocess audio data using the Niko's MIDI Pack sound source file as a data set and to generate music using Bi-LSTM. Based on the generated root note, the hidden layers are composed of multi-layers to create a new note suitable for the musical composition, and an attention mechanism is applied to the output gate of the decoder to apply the weight of the factors that affect the data input from the encoder. Setting variables such as loss function and optimization method are applied as parameters for improving the LSTM model. The proposed model is a multi-channel Bi-LSTM with attention that applies notes pitch generated from separating treble clef and bass clef, length of notes, rests, length of rests, and chords to improve the efficiency and prediction of MIDI deep learning process. The results of the learning generate a sound that matches the development of music scale distinct from noise, and we are aiming to contribute to generating a harmonistic stable music.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.103-128
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• 2021

Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.