• Title/Summary/Keyword: logistic equation

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The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model (수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석)

  • 장수은;이용택;지준호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2001
  • This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

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The Relations of Social Support to the Health Behaviors and Health Status in the Elderly (노인들의 사회적 지지와 건강행태 및 건강수준과의 관련성)

  • Kim, Tae-Myon;Lee, Sok-Goo;Jeon, So-Youn
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study intends to understand the difference within group of social support level and the effect of social support to health behaviors and health status of the elderly by selecting the old of local society as target. Methods: Data were obtained from self-administered questionnaire of 8,688 persons, older than 65 years, living in a community. We measured the sociodemographic characteristics, social support(family support, other support, quality of support), physical health state(subjective health status, number of chronic disease), physical function state(activities of daily living; ADL, instrumental activities of daily living; IADL), cognition state(mini-mental state examination-Korean; MMSE-K) and depression state(short form of geriatric depression scale; SGDS), health behaviors(smoking, drinking, exercise, eating habit). Univariate, multinominal logistic regression and covariance structure analysis were employed to analyze factors affecting on the social support of the elderly. Results: When considering the degree of social support by the sociodemographic characteristics of the older adults, the family support, other support and quality of support is better when the old is male, young, high education and self-reported living status is good and it has significance statistically. When considering the relation between social support and health status, the family support, other support and quality of support is better when the old's subjective and objective physical health status is good. The family support, other support and quality of support is better when the old's subjective health status is better. The other support and quality of support is better when the old's ADL(activities of daily living) and IADL(instrumental activities of daily living) are good. The family support, other support and quality of support is better when the old's cognitive function and depression state is better. When considering the relation between social support and health behaviors, in case of smoking and drinking, the quality of support, family support and other support is better when the old smokes and drinks rather than the old does not. In case of exercise and eating habit, the family support, other support and quality of support is better when the old exercises and eats regularly rather than the old does not. It has significance statistically. From the result of performing covariance structure analysis by structural equation modeling(SEM) with two endogenous variable(health behaviors and health status) and one exogenous variable(social support), factor loading of health status is 0.74 and factor loading of health behaviors is 0.05. The social support explains health status of 55.4% and health behaviors of 2.9%. Conclusions: This study has the meaning that it finds the difference of social support generating from inside of the group for the old residing in city and country and specifies the effect that the difference of social support influences to health status and health behaviors. From now on, in the development of health improvement strategy of the olds, it is necessary to approach from inclusive aspect while considering psychosocial factor such as social support and social economical factor as well as health status.

Predictors of Suicidal Thoughts in the People with Depression Drug Costs Support Project in the One Area (일 지역 우울증 약제비 지원 사업 대상자의 자살생각 예측요인)

  • Gang, Moonhee;Kim, Myung Sook;Oh, Hyun Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.369-376
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    • 2020
  • This study was to investigate the predictors of suicidal thoughts in the subjects who received the support for depression drug costs at a local public health center. The subjects were 156 depressed patients aged 18 and over. Data analysis was conducted by descriptive statistics, χ2-test, t-test and logistic regression analysis. The results of the analysis showed that the suicidal thoughts rate of the subjects was 25%, and the subjects showed significant differences in suicidal thoughts as the duration of antidepressant use was longer (t=-2.19, p<.05), the perceived physical health(t=3.03, p<.01) and the perceived mental health (t=5.21, p<.001) were lower, and the depression(x2=41.11, p<.001) were higher. The predictors of suicidal thoughts were perceived mental health(OR=0.97, p<.05) and depression(OR=8.44, p<.001). The regression equation of this study explained 42.4% of the suicidal thoughts of the subjects. Continued assessment and convergent mental health promotion programs are required for depression patients living in the community.

Influencing and Mediating Factors in Stroke: Based on 2007-2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (뇌졸중의 영향 요인과 매개요인)

  • Bae, Seung-Geun;Lee, Sung-Kook;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.418-428
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    • 2015
  • This study conducted influencing and mediated effect on stroke to lead correct health behavior of stroke patients and tried to provide preliminary data of stroke prevention. It used stage 4 and 5 data of a national health and nutrition examination survey, analysis method was frequency analysis, Chi-square test, multiple logistic regression and structural equation modeling. In case of male, factors affecting to stroke were age, job, self-related health, alcohol, hypertention and diabetes. In case of female, age, job, self-related health, stress level and hypertention affected to stroke. In tested results on whether or not mediated effect of preceding disease exists, 5.80 difference in ${\chi}^2$ between partial mediated modeling and full mediated modeling was statistically significant(p<0.01). Therefore, partial mediated modeling was adequate to this study. We need preventive health education for changing wrong health behaviors and policy that strengthens health care network. If someone has preceding disease, they need long-term diagnosis for health condition and continuous improvement in life style.

Fermented cottonseed meal improves production performance and reduces fat deposition in broiler chickens

  • Niu, Jun Li;Wei, Lian Qing;Luo, Yuan Qing;Yang, Wen Ting;Lu, Qi Cheng;Zheng, Xin Xia;Niu, Yu Jie;Sheng, Wen;Cheng, Hong;Zhang, Wen Ju;Nie, Cun Xi
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.680-691
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    • 2021
  • Objective: This study was conducted to investigate the effect of fermented cottonseed meal (FCSM) on growth performance, carcass traits, and fat deposition in white-feather broiler chickens. Methods: A total of 480 male one-day-old white-feather broiler chickens were selected randomly and divided into four groups with six replicates of 20 chickens in each. The experimental chickens were fed diets including 3%, 6%, or 9% FCSM fermented by Candida tropicalis until 42 days old. In the experiment, the chickens of the control group were fed soybean meal. Results: FCSM supplementation linearly decreased the feed conversion ratio from d 15 to 21 and d 36 to 42, respectively (p<0.05). The percentage of carcass and semi-eviscerate increased in response to dietary FCSM supplementation at d 21 (p<0.05). The percentage of eviscerated and semi-eviscerate of 3FCSM was higher than that in other groups at d 35 (p<0.05). At the age of 42 d, the percentage of carcass increased in a quadratic way among increasing FCSM in diets (p<0.05). The subcutaneous fat thickness linearly decreased with the increasing levels of FCSM at d 21 (p<0.05). Gompertz and Logistic functions provided a better fit on abdominal fat and subcutaneous fat, respectively. The best fitted equation predicted that the maximum growth rate of abdominal fat weight and subcutaneous fat thickness occurred at d 28. FCSM had no significant effects on the shape of growth curve of abdominal fat weight and subcutaneous fat thickness, but reduced the height of the curve. Birds receiving the 6FCSM diet for 21 d had smaller adipocyte surface and lower serum glucose as well as triglyceride concentration. Conclusion: FCSM is beneficial for broiler chickens as it positively affects their growth and carcass in addition to altering their fat deposition.

Population dynamics of the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) with changes in the population dependent carrying capacity in Republic of Korea

  • Wi, Yunju;Oh, Gyujin;Kang, Hee-Jin;Sung, Ha-Cheol;Cheon, Seung-ju;Jin, Hong-Sung
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2022
  • Background: In this study, we proposed that the population dynamics of non-native red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans) depends on the species' habitat extension and survivorship. We used a logistic equation with time-dependent habitat carrying capacity. In detail, the present carrying capacity depends on the red-eared slider population of the previous year. Anthropogenic activities such as the abandonment of previously captive red-eared sliders or the release due to religion customs would supply new habitats to the species. Therefore we assumed that anthropogenic spread increases the habitat carrying capacity. Based on the urbanization increase rate of 3% in Korea from 1980 to 2000, we assumed an annual spread of 3% to simulate the population dynamics of the red-eared slider. In addition, the effect on the population of an increase of natural habitats due to migration was simulated. Results: The close relationship between the distributions of non-native red-eared sliders and of urbanized areas demonstrates that urbanization plays an important role in providing new habitats for released individuals. Depending on the survivorship, the population of the red-eared slider in Korea increased 1.826 to 3.577 times between 1980 and 2000. To control population growth, it is necessary to reduce carrying capacity by reducing habitat expansion through prohibition of release into the wild ecosystem and careful managements of the wetland or artificial ponds. Changes in the habitat carrying capacity showed that the population fluctuated every other year. However, after several years, it converged to a consistent value which depended on the survivorship. Further, our results showed that if red-eared sliders expand their habitat by natural migration, their population can increase to a greater number than when they have a 99% survivorship in a fixed habitat. Conclusions: Further introductions of red-eared sliders into wetlands or artificial ponds should be prohibited and managed to prevent future spread of the species. Moreover, it is important to reduce the species' survivorship by restoring disturbed ecosystems and maintaining healthy ecosystems.

Estimating Grain Weight and Grain Nitrogen Content with Temperature, Solar Radiation and Growth Traits During Grain-Filling Period in Rice (등숙기 온도 및 일사량과 생육형질을 이용한 벼 종실중 및 종실질소함량 추정)

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Son, Ji-Young;Yoon, Young-Hwan;Seo, Jong-Ho;Kwon, Young-Up;Shin, Jin-Chul;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.275-283
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    • 2010
  • This experiment was conducted to construct process models to estimate grain weight (GW) and grain nitrogen content (GN) in rice. A model was developed to describe the dynamic pattern of GW and GN during grain-filling period considering their relationships with temperature, solar radiation and growth traits such as LAI, shoot dry-weight, shoot nitrogen content, grain number during grain filling. Firstly, maximum grain weight (GWmax) and maximum grain nitrogen content (GNmax) equation was formulated in relation to Accumulated effective temperature (AET) ${\times}$ Accumulated radiation (AR) using boundary line analysis. Secondly, GW and GN equation were created by relating the difference between GW and GWmax and the difference between GN and GNmax, respectively, with growth traits. Considering the statistics such as coefficient of determination and relative root mean square of error and number of predictor variables, appropriate models for GW and GN were selected. Model for GW includes GWmax determined by AET ${\times}$ AR, shoot dry weight and grain number per unit land area as predictor variables while model for GN includes GNmax determined by AET ${\times}$ AR, shoot N content and grain number per unit land area. These models could explain the variations of GW and GN caused not only by variations of temperature and solar radiation but also by variations of growth traits due to different sowing date, nitrogen fertilization amount and row spacing with relatively high accuracy.

Evaluating Cultivation Environment and Rice Productivity under Different Types of Agrivoltaics (유형이 다른 영농형 태양광발전시설 하부 재배 환경 및 벼 생산성 평가)

  • Ban, Ho-Young;Jeong, Jae-Hyeok;Hwang, Woon-Ha;Lee, Hyeon-Seok;Yang, Seo-Yeong;Choi, Myoung-Goo;Lee, Chung-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.258-267
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    • 2020
  • The agrivoltaic can produce electricity and grow crops on fields at the same time. It is necessary to analyze the cultivation environment and evaluate the crop productivity under agrivoltaic because the shading point changes according to structure of agrivoltaic and sun's position. Two types of "fixing" and "tracing" agrivoltaic were installed, and a rice cultivation experiment was conducted in the fields under each agrivoltaic and without shading (control). "Hyunpoombyeo" was transplanted on June 7, 2019, and grown with fertilization of 9.0-4.5-5.7 kg/10a (N-P-K). Fifteen weather stations were installed under each agrivoltaic to measure solar radiation and temperature, and yield and yield-related elements were investigated by points. The accumulated solar radiation during the rice growing season in fixing was no much difference between points, and that in tracing was much difference between points. However, the average solar radiations of two agrivoltaics were similar. The mean temperature, yield, and yield-related elements showed a significant difference for the shading rate, and decreased with increasing the shading rate except ripening grain rate and 1000 grain weight of fixing agrivoltaic. In the relationship between shading rate and yield, fixing and tracing were fitted to a logistic equation and a simple linear equation, respectively, and showed a high correlation (tracing: R2 = 0.62, fixing: R2 = 0.73). The shading rate variation by point for two types was large despite similar yield variation. Thus, it needs to be more closely examined the relationship of the shading rate for a specific period rather than the shading rate during the whole growing season.

Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed (미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Yong Gwan;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.