• 제목/요약/키워드: loan data

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What Prompted Shadow Banking in China? Wealth Management Products and Regulatory Arbitrage

  • SHAH, Syed Mehmood Raza;LI, Jianjun;FU, Qiang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권12호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2020
  • Shadow banking in China has been growing rapidly; banks use wealth management products aggressively to evade regulatory constraints. The loan-to-deposit ratio or LDR targets both sides of the balance sheet; loans in terms of asset-side, and deposits in terms of liabilities-side; banks needed to control and maintain both sides. Regulators restricted Chinese banks to maintain a 75% limit for their loan-depositratio. Banks' needed to either lower their loans or increase the deposits; WMPs helped banks to evade this limit. Banks issue more WMPs to control and manage a 75% statutory ceiling LDR. This WMPs-LDR positive association disappeared post-2015 period. This study empirically examined how Chinese banks use WMPs issuance to avoid regulatory constraints. Quarterly panel data for 30 top Chinese banks were used by analyzing pre-2015 (during the 75% LDR limit) and post-2015 (after removal of the LDR limit). This study also performed fixed-effects model as recommended by the Hausman specification test, with feasible generalized least squares FGLS estimation technique. The results of this study show that for the pre-2015 period, Chinese banks use issuance of WMPs aggressively to manage their LDR limit; this WMPs-LDR relationship disappeared post-2015 period. Moreover, SMBs use WMPs more eagerly as compare to Big4 banks.

The Impact of Transforming Unstructured Data into Structured Data on a Churn Prediction Model for Loan Customers

  • Jung, Hoon;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.4706-4724
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    • 2020
  • With various structured data, such as the company size, loan balance, and savings accounts, the voice of customer (VOC), which is text data containing contact history and counseling details was analyzed in this study. To analyze unstructured data, the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) analysis, semantic network analysis, sentiment analysis, and a convolutional neural network (CNN) were implemented. A performance comparison of the models revealed that the predictive model using the CNN provided the best performance with regard to predictive power, followed by the model using the TF-IDF, and then the model using semantic network analysis. In particular, a character-level CNN and a word-level CNN were developed separately, and the character-level CNN exhibited better performance, according to an analysis for the Korean language. Moreover, a systematic selection model for optimal text mining techniques was proposed, suggesting which analytical technique is appropriate for analyzing text data depending on the context. This study also provides evidence that the results of previous studies, indicating that individual customers leave when their loyalty and switching cost are low, are also applicable to corporate customers and suggests that VOC data indicating customers' needs are very effective for predicting their behavior.

개인CB 자료를 이용한 우리나라 가계의 부채상환위험 분석 (Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data)

  • 함준호;김정인;이영숙
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 국내 최초로 총 2,210만명의 개인신용 전수미시자료에 기초하여 차주별 특성 및 금융업권별로 부채상환능력을 비교 분석하고, 거시경제 충격에 따른 금융권역별 총부채상환비율(DTI)과 불량률의 변화, 차환위험 분석 등을 통해 가계부채의 건전성을 평가하였다. 실증분석 결과, 차주별로는 저소득 근로자와 고소득 자영업자의 부채상환부담이 상대적으로 높고, 금융업권별로는 캐피탈 및 카드사의 저소득 차주군, 상호저축은행의 고소득 차주군, 은행과 제2금융권 금융회사로부터 복수의 부채를 보유한 차주군의 부채상환능력이 특히 취약한 것으로 분석되었다. 시나리오 분석 결과, 향후 연간 금리 상승폭이 3%p, 소득감소율이 5% 수준 이내인 경우 가계의 부채상환부담 및 불량률 상승효과는 금융권이 현재의 자기자본으로 충분히 흡수할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 세부 권역별로는 캐피탈, 카드사, 상호저축은행 등 이미 차주의 DTI가 높은 제2금융권을 중심으로 가계부채의 부실화 가능성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 최근 가계부채 증가가 고소득층의 주택담보대출을 중심으로 이루어져서 상대적으로 안전하다는 견해가 있으나 고소득 차주군, 특히 자영업 고소득 차주군의 DTI 및 고위험군 비중이 높게 나타나, 향후 DTI 규제, 금리 상승 등으로 만기도래하는 일시상환형 주택담보대출의 차환이 어려울 경우 주택가격 하락과 함께 가계부실이 증가할 수 있음에 유의할 필요가 있다. 본 분석 결과는 기존의 거시총량지표를 이용한 가계부실위험 모니터링과 더불어 CB 등 미시자료를 이용한 차주 단위 분석을 결합하여 거시건전성 감독 차원에서 보다 심층적인 가계부채의 위험관리가 필요함을 시사한다.

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An Ensemble Model for Credit Default Discrimination: Incorporating BERT-based NLP and Transformer

  • Sophot Ky;Ju-Hong Lee
    • 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보처리학회 2023년도 춘계학술발표대회
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    • pp.624-626
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    • 2023
  • Credit scoring is a technique used by financial institutions to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. This involves evaluating a borrower's credit history to predict the likelihood of defaulting on a loan. This paper presents an ensemble of two Transformer based models within a framework for discriminating the default risk of loan applications in the field of credit scoring. The first model is FinBERT, a pretrained NLP model to analyze sentiment of financial text. The second model is FT-Transformer, a simple adaptation of the Transformer architecture for the tabular domain. Both models are trained on the same underlying data set, with the only difference being the representation of the data. This multi-modal approach allows us to leverage the unique capabilities of each model and potentially uncover insights that may not be apparent when using a single model alone. We compare our model with two famous ensemble-based models, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting.

대출업무 자동화를 위한 시스팀설계에 관한 연구 (System Analysis for the Automated Circulation)

  • 김광영
    • 한국비블리아학회지
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.85-102
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    • 1980
  • Accepting the necessity for maintaining the objectives of the existing circulation system, the computer-based system could be designed by the system analyst and librarians to gain a variety of improvements in the maintenance, accessibility of circulation records and more meaningful statistical records. If the terminal can be operated on-line, then this circulation data is transmitted directly to the computer, where it may update to the circulation file immediately or alternatively be kept in direct access file for updating in batch mode. on-line system in the circulation operations is "data-collection system" and "Bar-coded label system" Bar-coded label system is simple, quick, and error-free input of data. Attached to CRT terminal is a "light pen" which is hand held and will read a bar-coded label as the pen is passed over the labels (one affixed to the book itself, other carried on the borrower cards). Instantaneously the data concerning transaction is stored in the central mini-computer. It is useful, economical for us to co-operate many libraries in Korea and design borrower's ID code, book no., classification code in the Bar-coded label system by the members of the computer center and the library staff at every stage. As for book loan, the borrowers ID code, book number and classification code are scanned by the bar-code scanner or light pen and the computer decides whether to loan and store the data. The visual display unit shows the present status of a borrowers borrowing and decides whether borrower can borrow.

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Net Interest Margin and Return on Assets: A Case Study in Indonesia

  • PUSPITASARI, Elen;SUDIYATNO, Bambang;HARTOTO, Witjaksono Eko;WIDATI, Listyorini Wahyu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.727-734
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    • 2021
  • The study aims to examine and analyze the factors that affect the return on assets (ROA) by placing net interest margin (NIM) as a moderating variable in influencing ROA. This research was conducted on 27 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2015 to 2018 with a total sample data of 91. The data used is a combination of time series data and cross-section data. The sampling technique used was the purposive sampling method. The data analysis technique used was path analysis with multiple regression analysis technique. The results of the analysis showed that the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and loan to deposit ratio (LDR) have a positive but insignificant effect on ROA. NIM as a moderating variable does not influence the impact of CAR on ROA. However, NIM as a moderating variable is able to influence the impact of LDR on ROA. From the results of this study, it is evident that the LDR will increase the ROA at banks that generate high NIM.

기업의 부채조달원 선택에 관한 연구: 패널표본선택모형의 적용 (Corporate Debt Choice: Application of Panel Sample Selection Model)

  • 이호선
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제15권7호
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    • pp.428-435
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    • 2015
  • 우리 기업의 타인자본조달에 관한 통계지표를 살펴보면 대기업은 은행의 기업대출과 회사채 등의 직접금융을 함께 사용하여 자본을 조달하고 있는 반면, 중소기업은 은행대출에 계속 의지하고 있음을 확인할 수 있다. 이러한 현실을 감안하여 본 연구에서는 기업의 타인자본조달을 실증분석하는데 있어 표본선택편의가 존재하고 이를 감안한 연구모형을 사용해야 한다고 주장한다. 이러한 주장을 뒷받침하기 위해 1990년부터 2013년까지의 상장기업 자료를 통해 부채구조를 설명하는 실증분석을 수행한 결과 선행연구에서와 마찬가지로 기업의 회사채사용에 있어 기업규모, 1대주주 지분율, 유형자산 구성비, 수익성, 배당성향 등이 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인할 수 있었으며, 패널표본선택모형에 투입된 Inverse Mills Ratio 변수가 유의하게 나타나 패널표본선택모형을 사용하는 것이 타당함을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 기업의 타인자본조달에 있어 표본선택편의가 존재하며 이에 관한 연구에서 이를 반드시 감안해야 함을 의미한다.

자원공유에 대한 대학도서관 사서들의 인식에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Perception Among University Librarians towardes Resource Sharing)

  • 심원식
    • 정보관리학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.5-24
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    • 2008
  • 대학도서관에서의 자원공유가 활발해지고 고도화됨에 따라 이 업무를 담당하는 사서들이 자원공유에 대한 인식을 이해할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 설문지에 기반한 연구방법을 사용하여 78명의 대학도서관 사서들로부터 상호대차, 원문복사, 종합목록구축, 분담수서, 그리고 인적교류와 관련된 인식과 평가에 관한 자료를 수집하였다. 설문결과는 사서들이 이미 잘 구축된 자원공유(상호대차, 원문복사, 종합목록구축)에 대해 그렇지 않은 형태의 자원공유 (분담수서, 인적교류) 보다 더 긍정적으로 평가하는 것으로 나타났다. 서서들의 자원공유에 대한 인식과 도서관/개인 특성과의 상관분석이 수행되었고, 다섯 개 영역의 자원공유 각각에 대한 장애요인 또한 도출되었다.

Forecasting for a Credit Loan from Households in South Korea

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - In this work, we examined the causal relationship between credit loans from households (CLH), loan collateralized with housing (LCH) and an interest of certificate of deposit (ICD) among others in South Korea. Furthermore, the optimal forecasts on the underlying model will be obtained and have the potential for applications in the economic field. Research design, data, and methodology - A total of 31 realizations sampled from the 4th quarter in 2008 to the 4th quarter in 2016 was chosen for this research. To achieve the purpose of this study, a regression model with correlated errors was exploited. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit measures was used as tools of optimal model-construction. Results - We found that by applying the regression model with errors component ARMA(1,5) to CLH, the steep and lasting rise can be expected over the next year, with moderate increase of LCH and ICD. Conclusions - Based on 2017-2018 forecasts for CLH, the precipitous and lasting increase can be expected over the next two years, with gradual rise of two major explanatory variables. By affording the assumption that the feedback among variables can exist, we can, in the future, consider more generalized models such as vector autoregressive model and structural equation model, to name a few.

The Effect of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates of Four Large Economies on the Health of Banks in ASEAN-3

  • PURWONO, Rudi;TAMTELAHITU, Jopie;MUBIN, M. Khoerul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권10호
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    • pp.591-599
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    • 2020
  • This study examines how the health of the banks in ASEAN-3 countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand respond to the change in exchange rates and foreign interest rates in four large economies. The transmissions of the two external factors through domestic factors in each ASEAN-3 countries eventually affects Non-Performing Loan (NPL) of commercial banks. This study uses the monthly time series data and the renowned Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model comprising five variables, namely exchange rate, foreign interest rate, domestic interest rate, money supply, and non-performing loan (NPL). The results indicate that there are different effects between ASEAN-3 countries, which can be classified as short-run effect and long-run effect. In the long run effect, external factors have a dominant role in determining NPL in ASEAN-3 countries. Yuan has the biggest effect on Malaysia's NPL, while Indonesia is more affected by European interest rates rather than the fluctuation of the US currency and China's interest rates. Among ASEAN-3 countries, Malaysia is the one that is the most vulnerable to external factors. While Thailand's NPL is affected dominantly by domestic factors. This study shows that the Fed Funds Rate (US official interest rate) is not always the dominant factor affecting the health of domestic banks in ASEAN-3.