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An Error Correction Model for Long Term Forecast of System Marginal Price (전력 계통한계가격 장기예측을 위한 오차수정모형)

  • Shin, Sukha;Yoo, Hanwook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2021
  • The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

A Study on the Determination of Minimum Welding Condition Based on Structural Strength under Launching for Tandem Blocks (선체 블록 진수 시 필요한 최소 용접 구조 강도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Myung-Su Yi;Joo-Shin Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.1267-1273
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    • 2022
  • Although the Korea shipbuilding industry has recently been receiving most of the orders for ships in the world, production processes are being disrupted due to a shortage of manpower at the production site. This is because the workers quit the shipyard as both work and wages were reduced due to the long slump in the shipbuilding industry. The main reason for the increase in orders was the large-scale orders for Qatar LNG carriers, and the situation in which the technical specifications required for ships are becoming more complex is also working to an advantage. Because the contract delivery time is of utmost importance for ships, the dock launch plan is the most important management item among the shipyard's major processes. The structure to be built in the dock may be a hull that has left the design work or a finished vessel, and in some cases, it is often at the level of some blocks of the hull. When launching, the hull is affected by the hogging or sagging moment due to the fluid force, and securing the safety of the structural strength of the block connection is of utmost importance. In a normal process, the connecting member launches after welding has been completed, but in actual shipbuilders, quick decision-making is needed on the conditions for securing structural safety to comply with the docking schedule. In this study, a detailed analysis method and applicability using a bending stress evaluation method and finite element analysis modelling were analyzed to rationally judge the above-mentioned problems from an engineering point of view. The main contents mentioned in the thesis can be used as good examples when conducting similar structural strength evaluations in the future.

Improving the Design-phased VE Process of Public Clients in Relation to Using Critical Success Factors (핵심성공요인과 연계한 공공발주기관의 설계VE 프로세스 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Heedae;Han, Seung Heon;Kim, Sung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3D
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    • pp.399-408
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    • 2009
  • The major changes in construction environment are that construction project is bigger and more complicated and the power of construction market changes from the supplier to the client or the user. Especially public construction enterprises have advanced to introduce the value engineering (VE) which is one of the cost management based on the owner's leading at the design phase for economical efficiency and quality improvement. According to the these efforts, the implementation of VE was legislated in the revised Construction Technology Management Act in 2000, governmental agencies, local autonomies, and construction public enterprises universally has taken the VE into consideration. In this circumstance, the scope that VE construction applied at 50 billion won projects from 2003 has been extended to 10 billion won projects in 2006. Therefore, the VE construction will be activated in the future. The cost savings and function improvement, which are the purpose of VE are not only construction public enterprises, but also every public client supported from government's budget or owned by the government. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose the improved process and performance index of VE for governmental agencies, local autonomies, and construction public enterprises which want to introduce or improve the VE process. This research also suggested the To-be design-phased VE process model. In addition, it suggested the To-be model of design management reflected the To-be design-phased VE process model, which is eliminated two problems reflected for the performance improvement of the As-is model of design management.

Shipboard Verification Test of Onboard Carbon Dioxide Capture System (OCCS) Using Sodium Hydroxide(NaOH) Solution (가성소다(NaOH) 용액을 이용한 선상 이산화탄소 포집 장치의 선박 검증시험)

  • Gwang Hyun Lee;Hyung Ju Roh;Min woo Lee;Won Kyeong Son;Jae Yeoul Jeong;Tae-Hong Kim;Byung-Tak NAM;Jae-Ik Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2024
  • Hi Air Korea and Hanwha ocean are currently developing an Onboard Carbon dioxide Capture System (OCCS) to absorb CO2 emitted from ship's engine using a sodium hydroxide(NaOH) solution, and converting the resulting salt into a solid form through a chemical reaction with calcium oxide (CaO). The system process involves the following steps; 1)The reaction of CO2 gas absorption in water, 2)The reaction between carbonic acid (H2CO3) and NaOH solution to produce carbonate or bicarbonate, and 3)The reaction between carbonate or bicarbonate and CaO to form calcium carbonate (CaCO3). And ultimately, the solid material, CaCO3, is separated and discharged using a separator. The OCCS has been installed on an ship and the test results have confirmed significant reduction effects of CO2 in the ship's exhaust gas. A portion of the exhaust gas emitted from the engine was transferred to the OCCS using a blower. The flow rate of the transferred gas ranged from 800 to 1384 m3/hr, and the CO2 concentration in the exhaust gas was 5.1 vol% for VLSFO, 3.7 vol% for LNG and a 12 wt% NaOH solution was used. The results showed a CO2 capture efficiency of approximately 42.5 to 64.1 vol% and the CO2 capture rate approximately 48.4 to 52.2kg/hr. Additionally, to assess the impact of the discharged CaCO3on the marine ecosystem, we conducted "marine ecotoxicity test" and performed Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate the dispersion and dilution of the discharged effluent.

Experimental Study on Combined Failure Damage of Bi-directional Prestressed Concrete Panel under Impact-Fire Loading (충돌 후 화재에 대한 이방향 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 패널부재의 복합 파괴손상에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Yi, Na-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Won;Choi, Seung-Jai;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 2014
  • Since the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks in 2001, terror, military attack, or man-made disaster caused impact, explosion, and fire accident have frequently occured on civil infrastructures. However, structural behavior researches on major Prestressed Concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as bridges, tunnels, Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCVs), and LNG tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking. Especially, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror, bombing, collision of vehicles and vessels on concrete structures have not been performed domestically where most of the past researches related to extreme loadings on structures focused on an independent isolated extreme loading scenario. Due to the outcry of public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on major infrastructures and structures, a study is urgently needed at this time. Therefore, in this study, the bi-directional prestressed concrete $1400{\times}1000{\times}300mm$ panels applied with 430 kN prestressing force using unbonded prestressing thread bars were experimentally evaluated under impact, fire, and impact-fire combined loadings. Due to test site restrictions, impact tests were performed with 14 kN impactor with drop heights of 10m and 3.5 m to evaluate impact resistance capacity. Also, fire and impact-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The measured residual strength capacities of PSC and RC specimens applied with impact, fire, impact-fire combined loadings were compared with the residual strength capacity of undamaged PSC and RC specimens for evaluation. The study results can be used as basic research data for related research areas such as protective design and numerical simulation under extreme loading scenarios.

A Comparison of Structural Characterization of Composite Alumina Powder Prepared by Sol-Gel Method According to the Promoters (졸-겔법으로 제조된 복합 알루미나 미분체의 첨가제에 의한 구조적 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Jung-Woon;Yoon, Ho-Sung;Chae, U-Suk;Park, Han-Jin;Hwang, Un-Yeon;Park, Hyung-Sang;Park, Dal-Ryung;Yoo, Seung-Joon
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.503-510
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    • 2005
  • In this research, composite alumina was prepared to add the various promoters by sol-gel method and examined its thermal stability. After sintering at $1,200^{\circ}C$, the thermal stability resulted in following order, $Si{\fallingdotseq}La$ > Ti > $Ba{\fallingdotseq}Ce$ > Y > $Zr{\fallingdotseq}Mg$, in accordance with adding the promoters. Especially in case of silica-added alumina, a phase transformation temperature to ${\alpha}$-alumina increased about $150^{\circ}C$ and after sintering at $1,200^{\circ}C$, it showed to maintain in ${\gamma}$-form and ${\delta}$-form alumina phase. Also it showed an increase of surface area from $3m^2/g$ to $71m^2/g$ compared with pure ${\alpha}$-alumina. In the case of silicaadded alumina, the characterization change of this alumina particle resulted in a delay of phase transformation because Si-O-Al bond was increased when sintered at high temperature. In case of lanthanum-added alumina, there was a sintering delay phenomenon in inter-particles as $LaAlO_3$ structure existed. The existence of lanthanum structure was confirmed by XRD and XPS analysis. It appeared on the alumina surface as $La_2O_3$ structure when it was sintered under $1,000^{\circ}C$, as the perovskite structure of $LaAlO_3$ at above $1,000^{\circ}C$ and as the magneto-plumbite structure of $LaAl_{11}O_{18}$ at above $1,300^{\circ}C$.