• Title/Summary/Keyword: likelihood of success

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Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Small Sample-Sized One-shot Devices (작은 샘플 크기의 One-shot Devices를 위한 베이지안 신뢰도 추정)

  • Mun, Byeong Min;Sun, Eun Joo;Bae, Suk Joo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2013
  • One-shot device is required to successfully perform its function only once at the moment of use. The reliability of a one-shot device should be expressed as a probability of success. In this paper, we propose a bayesian approach for estimating reliability of one-shot devices with small sample size. We employ a gamma prior to obtain the posterior distribution. Finally, we compare the accuracy of the proposed method with general maximum likelihood method.

Determination of Commercialization Potential Through Patent Attribute Assessment in Lithium Ion Battery Technology (특허가치 평가지표 선정을 통한 기술 사업화 가능성 판단 : 리튬이온전지분야)

  • Kim, Wanki
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.240-249
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to identify an assessment system based on multiple patent indices that can predict the likelihood of success in the commercialization of a patented technology in advance. In addition, we examine the effectiveness of our predictive model in identifying valuable technologies early on. We analyzed 3,063 secondary battery technologies patented in the US over the past 10 years. Our analysis identified 22 of the 25 most promising patented technologies, corresponding with the top 50% of industry-patented technologies that directly and indirectly succeeded in commercialization. These results support our claim that it is possible to identify attributes for the assessment of patent commercial potential to a significant degree. Our system presents a useful assessment index in the forecasting and determination of potential commercial success of patented technologies.

Liability of Newness, Startup Capabilities and Crowdfunding Success

  • Kim, Sahangsoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.59-76
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    • 2020
  • Though crowdfunding has emerged as a cost-effective means to market innovative products and a channel for financial resource acquisition, our understanding about what makes a successful crowdfunding is still limited. This study is motivated by the presence of the inconsistency that both entrepreneurs and investors pay more attention to capabilities required for developing prototype products rather than capabilities needed to deliver the promised products in crowdfunding. By drawing insights from studies about liability of newness and legitimacy in institutional theory, this study argues that startups can overcome the liability of newness, earn investor trust, and successfully complete crowdfunding campaigns by effectively presenting visible and invisible capabilities. This study presents a set of testable propositions predicting the likelihood of crowdfunding success and explains the theoretical and practical value of the proposed conceptualization of startup capabilities.

A study on the Impact of Online Entrepreneurship Education on Entrepreneurship: A Case Study of Western China

  • Zhao Yazhu;Liu Huan;Liu Ziyang
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to investigate the influence of online entrepreneurship education on first-time entrepreneurs in western China. The research employed an online self-management survey method to collect data from participants involved in online entrepreneurship education and first-time entrepreneurs. The data was analyzed using SPSS and AMOS statistical software. The research findings indicate that online entrepreneurship education has a positive impact on entrepreneurial intention. There is a positive correlation between online entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurial execution capability. Entrepreneurial intention effectively promotes entrepreneurial execution capability, which is critical for successful entrepreneurship. Online entrepreneurship education also emphasizes the development of innovative abilities and thinking patterns, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of entrepreneurs. Additionally, entrepreneurial support plays a direct positive role in entrepreneurial success by providing resources, guidance, knowledge sharing, and confidence, thereby increasing the likelihood of success.

Health Education Strategies through the Use of Mass Media (매스 미디어를 이용한 보건교육 전략)

  • 최윤희
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 1990
  • It is evidenced that the mass media can play an important role in communicating information to the public. Although some campaigns have failed to achieve success, application of mass communication principles should increase the likelihood of effectiveness. Specifically, campaign strategies should attempt to select message sources that are perceived as credible by the audience. In designing and disseminating messages, the quality of content should be emphasiged as well as the quantity of presencation. The context of message reception should be carefully considered. Selection of channels depends on the configuration of source, superior for most purposes. The crucial role of precampaign audience analysis should not be overlooked.

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Antecedents of Complaining Behavior and Complaint Responses of Library and Information Center Users (도서관.정보센터 이용자 불평행동의 선행요인과 유형)

  • 오동근
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.261-283
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    • 2001
  • This study investigates the antecedents of the complaining behaviors and complaint responses of the library and information center users based on the theoretical backgrounds and suggests eight propositions and conceptual model for the library and information center. It examines as the antecedents, satisfaction/dissatisfaction, attitude toward complaining, likelihood of success, materials/facilities/service importance, attribution, loyalty, and justices; and as complaint responses. exit, voice(redress seeking), negative word-of-mouth, and third party complaints.

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Platform Strategy and Market Response Impact on the Success of Crowdfunding: A Chinese Case

  • Guo, Li;Zhou, Dongmei;Chen, Yang;Huy, Ratanak
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.397-409
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays, crowdfunding presents a promising development. This research focuses on the influence of platform strategy and market response on the success of crowdfunding from the perspective of the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) theory. Detailed product specifications, crowdfunding difficulty coefficient, vivid advertising video such as introduction and music, and recommendations from relevant figures are all used to depict platform strategy. Meanwhile, we use the number of lovers, followers, comments and 1 RMB backers to measure the level of market response. And thus, we model the impact of platform strategy and market response on crowdfunding success with empirical studies based on 400 samples of observed value. We found firstly that there exist significant positive relations between the total amount of funds pledged and detailed product specification, vivid advertising video, recommendations from relevant figures and the number of 1 RMB backers. Secondly, the crowdfunding difficulty of projects affects negatively, and significantly, the total amount of funds pledged. Thirdly, the influence of the number of lovers and followers on funds pledged is not significant.

Open Innovation in Venture Firms: the Impact of External Search Strategy on Innovation Performance of Korean Manufacturing Firms (벤처기업의 오픈이노베이션: 외부 지식 탐색 전략과 한국 제조업의 혁신성과)

  • Chai, Dominic Heesang;Choi, Yoon Young;Huh, Eunji
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the relationship between firms' external search strategy and their innovation performance. In addition to revisiting the relationship between open search strategy and product innovation, we further extend the impact of use of external knowledge sources to process and organizational innovation. Using the 2010 Korean Innovation Survey (KIS) of manufacturing firms, we report that on average, venture firms search more widely (external search breadth) and deeply (external search depth) across a variety of external search channels than non-venture firms. We then further explore the impact of venture and non-venture firms' use of external search strategies on innovation performance. We find that both searching widely and deeply increase the likelihood of non-venture firm's successes in product, process and organizational innovation. Similar results can be found for the venture firm's success in organizational innovation. However, only searching deeply increases the likelihood of venture firms' success in product and process innovation.

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A Study on The Influencing Factors on the Customer Complaint Intention - Focusing on The Factors Under Company's Control- (고객 직접 불평행동의도의 영향요인에 관한 연구 -기업이 통제할 수 있는 요인을 중심으로-)

  • Im, Guk-Hwa;Park, Ju-Sik
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.107-135
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    • 2013
  • Today, the consumer complaining behavior is recognized as a valuable source of marketing information in the company. Therefore, studies on the factors that lead to consumer complaints have been done. In the previous research on consumer complaining behavior, the factors influencing the complaining behavior was focused on the personal characteristics, but factors under company control was rarely identified. We try to identify factors under company's control that have a effect on the likelihood of success of complaining and complaining perceived costs. These factors are tendency to compensate emotionally, tendency to compensate materially, accessibility to complain, empowerment to manage complaint. Through empirical analysis, we proposed company's strategies to encourage consumer's complaint and gave theoretical and managerial implications.

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Quantitative risk assessment for wellbore stability analysis using different failure criteria

  • Noohnejad, Alireza;Ahangari, Kaveh;Goshtasbi, Kamran
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2021
  • Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.