• Title/Summary/Keyword: lag period

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The Impact of Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types on the Price Index (소매업태간 시장점유율 변화가 물가에 미친 영향)

  • Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho;Choi, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.93-115
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of changes in market shares among retailing types on the price index. The retailing type is classified into 6 groups: department store, big mart, super market, convenient store, specialty merchant, and on-line store. The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. We employed several price indices: consumer price index (CPI), CPI for living necessaries, and fresh food price index. In addition, this study used fundamental price indices based on 25 product families as well as 42 representative products. The empirical model also included several variables in order to control for the macroeconomic effects and those variables are the exchange rate, M1, an oil price, and the industrial production index. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010. In order to test for the stability of data series, we conducted ADF test and PP test in which the model and length of lag were determined by the relevant previous literature and based on the AIC. The empirical results indicate that changes in market shares among retailing types have impacts on the price index. Table A shows that impacts differ as to which price index to use and which product families and products to use. For department store, it lowers the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, home appliances, fresh food, fresh and vegetables, but it keeps the price high for fresh fruit. The big mart retailing type has a positive impact on the price of food, nut has a negative effect on clothing and foot wear, non-food, and fresh fruit. For super market, it has a positive impact on food and non-alcoholic beverages, fresh food, fresh shellfishes, but increases the price of CPI for living necessaries and non-food. The specialty merchant retailing type increases the price level of CPI for living necessaries and fresh fruit. For on-line store type, it keeps the price high for CPI for living necessaries and non-food as well as fresh fruit. For the analysis based on 25 product families shows that changes in market shares among retailing types also have different effects on the price index. Table B summarizes the different results. The 42 representative product level analysis is summerized in Table C and it indicates that changes in market shares among retailing types have different effects on the price index. The study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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Effects of High Molecular Hardwood Lignin on Anaerobic Digestion at Different Temperatures and Sludge Concentrations (혐기성 소화에 미치는 온도와 슬러지의 농도별 고분자 활엽수 리그닌의 영향)

  • Yin, Cheng-Ri;Seo, Dong-Il;Lee, Sung-Taik;Jin, Yin-Shu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.2197-2204
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    • 2000
  • Lignin is a major component of wastewater generated in the chemical processing of wood. Because it is recalcitrant, it inhibits biological treatment of wastewater of pulp manufacturing, especially high concentration of lignin may inhibit the anaerobic digestion. The objective of this study was to evaluate the toxicity of high molecular hardwood lignin (lignosulfonate, MW $\geq$ 20,000) on aceticlastic methanogens in the batch reactors at different temperatures with different sludge concentrations, using anaerobic serum bottles. The hardwood lignin was found to inhibit anaerobic conversion of acetate to methane and carbon dioxide, shown with a long lag-phase before methanogenesis started. The methanogens assumed not to be able to acclimate to the lignin were found to be acclimated slowly in the batch experiments, finally reaching non-toxic levels in which methane production could start. The hardwood lignin was found not to be bacteriocidal but bacteriostatic to aceticlastic methanogens. Hardwood lignin(lignosulfonate) at 1.3, 2.6, and 3.9%(w/w) inhibited the acetateutilizing methanogens of anaerobic digester sludge by 14.5, 17.8, 21.1 days(in noninhibitory condition it took 10 days) to produce the same amount of methane. The inhibitory effect of lignin was examined at temperature ranges of $30^{\circ}C$ to $50^{\circ}C$. When 2.6% of lignin was contained in wastewater, methane production was highest at $30^{\circ}C$ during initial 8 days. At $4^{\circ}C$, methane production rapidly increased after 12 days of digestion, the value became higher than that at $30^{\circ}C$ after 14 days. However, the methane production was completely inhibited during whole digestion period at $50^{\circ}C$. High ratio of lignin concentration to initial anaerobic sludge concentration gave tolerance to the inhibition. In this experiment, high molecular hardwood lignin was not degraded and decolorized.

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Comparison of the Nutritional Status and the Acute Inflammatory Reaction between Laparoscopy-assisted Distal Gastrectomy and Conventional Open Distal Gastrectomy for Early Gastric Cancer (조기위암에서 복강경 및 개복 위아전절제술에 따른 영양학적 및 면역염증반응의 비교)

  • Chae, Hyun-Dong
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy (LAG) is gaining wider acceptance as a minimally invasive treatment for early gastric cancer, but the safety, efficacy and clinical benefits of this type of surgery are still unclear. The purpose of this study is to compare laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy (LADG) and conventional open distal gastrectomy (CODG) for early gastric cancer (EGC) according to the changes of the postoperative nutritional status and acute inflammatory reaction. Materials and Methods: Eighty seven patients with EGC and who underwent a LADG between March 2006 and May 2009 at Daegu Catholic University Hospital, was enrolled. Over the same period, we enrolled 30 patients who underwent CODG and they were confirmed to have EGC from their pathology. The clinico-pathological features and serologic parameters were evaluated from the medical records and then retrospectively analyzed. Results: There were no differences in the preoperative white blood cell (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP) level, albumin level, the T4/T8 ratio and the other clinical data between the two groups. The total WBC counts gradually increased and they were significant lower at the $1^{st}$ and $3^{rd}$ postoperative days in the LADG group than that in the CODG group (P=0.001 and 0.008, respectively). The postoperative CRP levels were significantly lower at postoperative $5^{th}$ day in the LADG group (P<0.001). The postoperative albumin and T4/T8 ratio gradually decreased, and the T4/T8 ratio was significantly higher at the $3^{rd}$ postoperative day in the LADG group compared to that in the CODG group (P=0.003). Conclusion: This study demonstrates that the LADG has less of an influence on an acute inflammatory reaction than does CODG. Therefore, it is one of the safe and feasible procedures for the treatment of early gastric cancer.

Influence of the Asian Monsoon on Seasonal Fluctuations of Water Quality in a Mountainous Stream (산간 계류성 하천의 계절적 수질변동에 대한 몬순강우의 영향)

  • Shin, In-Chul;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.1 s.110
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    • pp.54-62
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    • 2005
  • The present study was to determine how seasonal rainfall intensity influences nutrient dynamics, ionic contents, oxygen demands, and suspended solids in a lotic ecosystem. Largest seasonal variabilities in most parameters occurred during the two months of July to August and these were closely associated with large spate of rainfall. Dissolved oxygen (DO) had an inverse function of water temperature (r = = = - 0.986, p<0.001). Minimum pH values of<6.5 were observed in the late August when rainfall peaked in the study site, indicating an ionic dilution of stream water by precipitation. Electrical conductivity (EC) was greater during summer than any other seasons, so the overall conductivity values had direct correlation (r = 0.527, p<0.01) with precipitation. Ionic dilution, however, was evident 4 ${\sim}$ 5 days later in short or 1 ${\sim}$ 2 weeks in long after the intense rain, indicating a time-lag phenomenon of conductivity. Daily COD values varied from 0.8 mg $L^{-1}$ to 7.9 mg $L^{-1}$ and their seasonal pattern was similar (r = 0.548, p<0.001) to that of BOD. Total nitrogen (TN) varied little compared to total phosphorus (TP) and was minimum in the base flow of March. In contrast, major input of TP occurred during the period of summer monsoon and this pattern was similar to suspended solids, implying that TP is closely associated (r = 0.890, p<0.01) with suspended inorganic solids. Mass ratios of TN : TP were determined by TP (r= -0.509, p<0.01) rather than TN (r= -0.209, p<0.01). The N : P ratios indicated that phosphorus was a potential primary limiting nutrient for the stream productivity. Overall data suggest that rainfall intensity was considered as a primary key component regulating water chemistry in the stream and maximum variation in water quality was attributed to the largest runoff spate during the summer monsoon.

Isolation of Marine Bacteria Killing Red Tide Microalgae I. Isolation and Algicidal Properties of Micrococcus sp. LG-1 Possessing Killing Activity for Harmful Dinoflagellate, Cochlodinium polykrikoides (적조생물 살조세균 탐색 I. 유해 적조생물 Cochlodinium Polykrikoides 살조세균 Micrococcus sp. LG-1의 분리와 살조특성)

  • PARK Young-Tae;PARK Ji-Bin;CHUNG Seong-Youn;Song Byung-Chul;LIM Wol-Ae;KIM Chang-Hoon;LEE Won-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.767-773
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    • 1998
  • In this study, we have investigated the distributions and killing effects of marine bacteria that tend to kill the red tide microalgae, C. polykikoides in the area of Masan bay from June to October, 1996. To summarize, C. polykikoides killing bacteria were detected at $10^2$ to $10^3$ cells/ml of seawater samples during the survey period, and the bloom was observed in September by containing $4.8\times10^3$cells/ml. It appears however that the number of these bacteria is decreased ($2.0\times10^2$cells/ml) in October, A total of 110 strains were isolated from seawater samples and seawater filtrate (pore size, 0.8 $\mu$m)-containing mixed culture of C. polykikoides in which the mixed culture was grown in f/2 medium. As results we have successfully isolated Micrococcus sp. LG-1 which decreased to less than 10cells/ml within 6days and 5days sfter inoculation of Micrococcus sp. LG-1 into the la9 and logarithmic growth phases of C. polykrikoides respectively. Therefore, it appears that inoculation of Micrococcus sp. LG-1 against the logarithmic C. polykrikoides is more effective than the lag growth phase, (n addition, the killing effects were increased in accordance with bacterial cell densities inoculated in a dose dependent manner. Especially, the filtrate of kitling bacterium culture (nore size, 0.2 $\mu$m) revealed a dramatic effect in which C. polykrikoides were decreased to less than 10 cells/mf of culture within 1 hr, 1,5 hrs, 1,5 hrs, 3.5 hrs. and 5,5 hrs after inoculations of the culture filtrate with concentration of $30\%,\;20\%,\;10\%,\;5\%$ and $2.5\%$, respectively. Moreover Micrococcus sp. LG-1 showed a selective specificity against C. polykrikoides and any other killing effects of Micrococcus sp. LG-1 were not observed against Alexandrium tamarense, Prorocentrum micans, Scrippsiella trochoidea. ana Gymnodinium sanguineum.

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Reproductive Growth of Seeds and Overwintered Stump of Bulrush (Scirpus juncoides Roxb.) (올챙고랭이(Scirpus juncoides Roxb.) 종실(種實) 및 월동주기부(越冬株基部)의 번식생장(繁殖生長)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Huh, S.M.;Guh, J.O.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 1987
  • Differing in water conditions, the dry matter weight per plant was highest at 0 cm flooding depth, and was decreased at above 2 cm flooding depths. The shoot and spikes per pot developed best at flooding depths of 0 and 2 cm, but worst at -5cm or above 4cm flooding depths. The dry matter weight of shoots was linearly increased, but the weight of roots was sharply decreased according to high temperature after flower initation. The shoots and spikes per pot developed more effectively at 25$^{\circ}C$ than at 35 or 15$^{\circ}C$. The number of shoot and spike per pot were decreased according to higher shading. The effects of shading of 25-45% were not significantly small. The natural white and yellow spectra were the most effective to increase dry matter weight, shoots and spikes per pot. The dry matter weights of shoot and root per plant were not significantly different among at: 50 and 75% clay. The number of shoots were best and continuously increased at 75% clay, and the increments at 0 and 100% clays showed the lag period at early stage. The pattern of spikes was similar to shoots with less difference in various clay composition. The dry matter weight per plant in paddy field and upland field was basically similar. The numbers of shoot and spike were increased in response to increased fertilizer levels up to 20Kg per 10a of each component.

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Growth and Fruit Characteristics of Vitis amurensis Rupr. Collected in Gangwondo (강원도에서 수집된 왕머루의 생장과 과실특성)

  • Park, Young-Sik;Heo, Jae-Yun;Kim, In-Jong;Heo, Su-Jeong;Kim, Kyung-Hee;Jeong, Byung-Chan;Park, Sung-Min
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.226-233
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the fruit and growth characteristics of selecting Vitis amurensis through functional material analysis and sensory evaluation in V. amurensis collected in Gangwondo. For evaluation of growth characteristics in V. amurensis, experiments were carried out by compared with the two grape cultivars 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho'. The full bloom and verasion time in V. amurensis was investigated faster than those of examined cultivar grapes, while harvest time was investigated latter than those of examined cultivar grapes, but agronomic characteristics was not thought significantly difference between cultivar grapes and V. amurensis. For evaluation of shoot growth phase, the growth curve was very similar to cultivar grapes. The berry size in V. amurensis showed that increases rapidly between 3 and 4 days after full bloom time, and approximately doubles between the second growth period and harvest time, and the berry development phase investigated that consist of two sigmoid growth periods separated by a lag phase. The berry weight and soluble solids in V. amurensis increased with the tree age, but acidity and total sugar contents decreased, and showed a special quality and stable growth according to vine age. To investigation of functional materials, the anthocyanin content in V. amurensis ranged from 16.6 to 50.2 mg/100 g, and the resveratrol content ranged from 0.143 to $0.236{\mu}g/100\;g$ which was higher than those of cultivar grapes. These result indicated that V. amurensis tended to have the useful material larger than cultivar grapes. Therefore, other edibility factors of V. amurensis collected in Gangwondo may contribute to breeding studies in Vitis. spp.

Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates (부정기선 운임율의 결정에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 이종인
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.45-79
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    • 1980
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

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NEAR-INFRARED VARIABILITY OF OPTICALLY BRIGHT TYPE 1 AGN (가시광에서 밝은 1형 활동은하핵의 근적외선 변광)

  • JEON, WOOYEOL;SHIM, HYUNJIN;KIM, MINJIN
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2021
  • Variability is one of the major characteristics of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), and it is used for understanding the energy generation mechanism in the center of AGN and/or related physical phenomena. It it known that there exists a time lag between AGN light curves simultaneously observed at different wavelengths, which can be used as a tool to estimate the size of the area that produce the radiation. In this paper, We present long term near-infrared variability of optically bright type 1 AGN using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data. From the Milliquas catalogue v6.4, 73 type 1 QSOs/AGN and 140 quasar candidates are selected that are brighter than 18 mag in optical and located within 5 degree around the ecliptic poles. Light curves in the W1 band (3.4 ㎛) and W2 band (4.6 ㎛) during the period of 2010-2019 were constructed for these objects by extracting multi-epoch photometry data from WISE and NEOWISE all sky survey database. Variability was analyzed based on the excess variance and the probability Pvar. Applying both criteria, the numbers of variable objects are 19 (i.e., 26%) for confirmed AGN and 12 (i.e., 9%) for AGN candidates. The characteristic time scale of the variability (τ) and the variability amplitude (σ) were derived by fitting the DRW model to W1 and W2 light curves. No significant correlation is found between the W1/W2 magnitude and the derived variability parameters. Based on the subsample that are identified in the X-ray source catalog, there exists little correlation between the X-ray luminosity and the variability parameters. We also found four AGN with changing W1-W2 color.