• Title/Summary/Keyword: joint distribution probability

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Probabilistic Monitoring of Effect of Meteorological Drought on Stream BOD Water Quality (기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링)

  • Jiyu Seo;Jeonghoon Lee;Hosun Lee;Sangdan Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2023
  • Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.

A Study on the Effective Method to Producing Data for The ROKA Live Fire Training Range Safety (한국군 실 사격 훈련간 효율적인 안전지대 데이터 구축 방안 연구)

  • Lee, June-Sik;Choi, Bong-Wan;Oh, Hyun-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.64-77
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    • 2015
  • An effective method for produce munitions effectiveness data is to calculate weapon effectiveness indices in the US military's Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manuals (JMEM) and take advantage of the damage evaluation model (GFSM) and weapon Effectiveness Evaluation Model (Matrix Evaluator). However, a study about the Range Safety that can be applied in the live firing exercises is very insufficient in the case of ROK military. The Range Safety program is an element of the US Army Safety Program, and is the program responsible for developing policies and guidance to ensure the safe operation of live-fire ranges. The methodology of Weapon Danger Zone (WDZ) program is based on a combination of weapon modeling/simulation data and actual impact data. Also, each WDZ incorporates a probability distribution function which provides the information necessary to perform a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the relative risk of an identified profile. A study of method to establish for K-Range Safety data is to develop manuals (pamphlet) will be a standard to ensure the effective and safe fire training at the ROK military education and training and environmental conditions. For example, WDZs are generated with the WDZ tool as part of the RMTK (Range Managers Tool Kit) package. The WDZ tool is a Geographic Information System-based application that is available to operational planners and range safety manager of Army and Marine Corps in both desktop and web-based versions. K-Range Safety Program based on US data is reflected in the Korean terrain by operating environments and training doctrine etc, and the range safety data are made. Thus, verification process on modified variables data is required. K-Range Safety rather than being produced by a single program, is an package safety activities and measures through weapon danger zone tool, SRP (The Sustainable Range Program), manuals, doctrine, terrain, climate, military defence M&S, weapon system development/operational test evaluation and analysis to continuously improving range safety zone. Distribution of this K-range safety pamphlet is available to Army users in electronic media only and is intended for the standing army and army reserve. Also publication and distribution to authorized users for marine corps commands are indicated in the table of allowances for publications. Therefore, this study proposes an efficient K-Range Safety Manual producing to calculate the danger zones that can be applied to the ROK military's live fire training by introducing of US Army weapons danger zone program and Range Safety Manual

Estimated Soft Information based Most Probable Classification Scheme for Sorting Metal Scraps with Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (레이저유도 플라즈마 분광법을 이용한 폐금속 분류를 위한 추정 연성정보 기반의 최빈 분류 기술)

  • Kim, Eden;Jang, Hyemin;Shin, Sungho;Jeong, Sungho;Hwang, Euiseok
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a novel soft information based most probable classification scheme is proposed for sorting recyclable metal alloys with laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Regression analysis with LIBS captured spectrums for estimating concentrations of common elements can be efficient for classifying unknown arbitrary metal alloys, even when that particular alloy is not included for training. Therefore, partial least square regression (PLSR) is employed in the proposed scheme, where spectrums of the certified reference materials (CRMs) are used for training. With the PLSR model, the concentrations of the test spectrum are estimated independently and are compared to those of CRMs for finding out the most probable class. Then, joint soft information can be obtained by assuming multi-variate normal (MVN) distribution, which enables to account the probability measure or a prior information and improves classification performance. For evaluating the proposed schemes, MVN soft information is evaluated based on PLSR of LIBS captured spectrums of 9 metal CRMs, and tested for classifying unknown metal alloys. Furthermore, the likelihood is evaluated with the radar chart to effectively visualize and search the most probable class among the candidates. By the leave-one-out cross validation tests, the proposed scheme is not only showing improved classification accuracies but also helpful for adaptive post-processing to correct the mis-classifications.

Study on Probabilistic Analysis for Fire·Explosion Accidents of LPG Vaporizer with Jet Fire (Jet Fire를 수반한 국내외 LPG 기화기의 화재·폭발사고에 관한 확률론적 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2012
  • This study collected 5,100 cases of gas accident occurred in Korea for 14 years from 1995 to 2008, established Database and based on it, analyzed them by detailed forms and reasons. As the result of analyzing the whole city gas accidents with Poisson analysis, the item of "Careless work-Explosion-Pipeline' showed the highest rate of accidents for the next 5 years. And, "Joint Losening and corrosion-Release-Pipeline" showed the lowest rate of accident. In addition, for the result of analyzing only accidents related to LPG vaporizer, "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire" showed the highest rate of accident and "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults" showed the lowest rate of accident. Also, as the result of comparing and analyzing foreign LPG accident accompanied by Jet fire, facility's defect which is liquid outflow cut-off device and heat exchanger's defect were analyzed as the main reason causing jet fire, like the case of Korea, but the number of accidents for the next 5 years was the highest in "LPG-Mechanical-Jet fire" and "LPG-Mechanical-Vapor Cloud" showed the highest rate of accidents. By grafting Poisson distribution theory onto gas accident expecting program of the future, it's expected to suggest consistent standard and be used as the scale which can be used in actual field.