• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.2-8
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• 2011

Objectives: Public release of and feedback (here after public release) on institutional (clinics and hospitals) cesarean section rates has had the effect of reducing cesarean section rates. However, compared to the isolated intervention, there was scant evidence of the effect of repeated public releases (RPR) on cesarean section rates. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of RPR for reducing cesarean section rates. Methods: From January 2003 to July 2007, the nationwide monthly institutional cesarean section rates data (1 951 303 deliveries at 1194 institutions) were analyzed. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series intervention models to assess the effect of the RPR on cesarean section rates and ordinal logistic regression model to determine the characteristics of the change in cesarean section rates. Results: Among four RPR, we found that only the first one (August 29, 2005) decreased the cesarean section rate (by 0.81 percent) and continued to have an impact period through the last observation in May 2007. Baseline cesarean section rates (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1 to 7.1) and annual number of deliveries (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.7) of institutions in the upper third of each category at before first intervention had a significant contribution to the decrease of cesarean section rates. Conclusions: We could not found the evidence that RPR has had the significant effect of reducing cesarean section rates. Institutions with upper baseline cesarean section rates and annual number of deliveries were more responsive to RPR.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.107-116
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• 1994

The United States adopted DRG based prospective payment system (PPS) in order to control the inflation of health care costs. No study used statistical test while many studies reported the cost containing effect of the PPS. To study impacts of the PPS on the Medicare expenditure, this study set the following three hypotheses (1) The PPS decelerated the increase in the hospital expenditure (Part A), (2) the PPS accelerated the increase in the expenditure of outpatients and physicians (Part B), (3) the increase in total expenditure was decelerated inspite of the spill over (substitution) effect because saving in the Part A expenditure were greater than losses in the Part B expenditure. The dependent variables are per capita hospital expenditure, per capita Part B expenditure, and per capita total expenditure for the Medicare beneficiaries. An intervention analysis, which added intervention effect to the time series variation on the Box-Jenkins model, was used. The observations included 120 months from 1978 to 1987. The results are as follows : (1) The annual increase in the per capita Part A expenditure was $5.11 after the implementation of DRG where as that before the PPS had been $11.1. The effect of the reduction ($5.99) was statistically significient (t=-3.9). (2) The spill over (substitution) effect existed because the annual increase in the per capita Part B expenditure was accelerated by $1.73 (t=1.91) after the implementation of the PPS. (3) The increase in the total Medicare expenditure per capita was reduced by $4.26 (t=-2.19) because the spill over effect was less than cost savings in the Part A expenditure.

• Child Health Nursing Research
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.21-34
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• 2001

The impact of childhood experience has lifelong significance on subsequent health and development. Especially, the experience of infant is mostly affected by the quality of parental care and rearing environment. But the new mothers usually do not know what to do because of the lack of experience in these days. Therefore, an educational program regarding maternal role would be necessary. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the maternal role education program for mother-infant interaction, child-rearing environment, and infant development. Non-equivalent control group time-series design was used, and Barnard's mother-infant interaction model was used as a conceptual framework of this study. The subjects were the healthy infants weighing over 2,500gm at birth, whose gestational age was more than 37 weeks, and their mothers. The final sample consisted of 19 mother-infant dyads for intervention group and 18 dyads for control group. Data were collected from March 15th to September 3rd in 1999. For the intervention group, programmed education which focused on mother-infant interaction, breast feeding, and infant care was provided before discharge. Telephone counselling was provided within one week after discharge. Home visiting for maternal role education was provided twice, one month and three months postpartum. For the control group, home visiting was also conducted but only for data collection. The data were analyzed using chi-square test and t-test to test the equivalence of two groups, and the effectiveness of intervention program was determined with repeated measure ANCOVA and t-test. The results were as follows: 1. Significant differences were found in mother-infant interaction between two groups(p=.000). It indicates that intervention program was effective in improving mother- infant interaction. In subscale analysis, four out of six subscale showed significant differences between the groups: sensitivity to cues (p=.000), social-emotional growth fostering (p=.000), cognitive growth fostering(p=.000) in mothers, and responsiveness to caregiver (p=.019) in infants. 2. The difference in the mean score of childrearing environment (HOME) between the intervention group and control group was significant(p=.003). When each subscale of HOME was examined individually, intervention group showed significantly higher scores in the diversity of stimulation(p=.000), and mother's involvement(p=.001). 3. Three-month-Infants of the intervention group showed higher GQ in the Griffiths mental development scale(p=.026). In subscale analysis, significant differences were found in the personal-social(p=.005), and the hearing and speech(p=.003). In conclusion, the maternal role education program proved to be effective in promoting the mother-infant interaction, organizing the childrearing environment, and fostering the infant development. These results are very meaningful that we found maternal role education necessary for normal infants' mothers, and that nurses can make a great contribution in promoting health of infants and mothers.

• 트랜스-
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• 제11권
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• pp.1-35
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• 2021

본 연구는 각 미디어의 리얼리티와 오디션 프로그램의 상품성 등 몇 가지 측면에서 실존주의를 이론 모델로 오디션 프로그램의 리얼리티가 왜곡되는 상황에 대해 살펴보고자 했다. 실존주의의 제1원리 '주관성'에 따르면 사람들은 자유의지에 따른 행동을 통해 자신의 본질을 만든 이론적 관점에서 알 수 있듯이 제작 과정에서 캐릭터 메이킹과 스토리텔링을 통해 인물의 이미지를 만들고, 방송 분량 증감을 통해 마지막으로 결성된 단체 인물의 포지션 균형을 이룬다. 연구 결과에 의하면 제작진의 주관적인 개입으로 인해 비본질적인 모습을 대외적으로 드러냄으로써 본질적인 왜곡을 초래한다는 것을 알 수 있다. 상품화 사회에서 무조건 이익만 추구하면 커뮤니케이션의 윤리성과 괴리가 생기고, 리얼리티와 이익의 균형을 어떻게 맞출 수 있느냐가 여전히 현재 오디션 프로그램의 주요 문제이다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.319-332
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• 2019

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is of great importance to super high-rise buildings. The Shanghai Tower is currently the tallest building in China, and a complete SHM system was simultaneously constructed at the beginning of the construction of the tower. Due to the variety of sensor types and the large number of measurement points in the SHM system, an online automatic structural health assessment method with few computations and no manual intervention is needed. This paper introduces a structural health assessment method for the Shanghai Tower that uses the coefficients of an autoregressive (AR) time series model as structural state indicators. An analysis of collected data indicates that the coefficients of the AR model are affected by environmental factors, and the principal component analysis method is used to remove the influence of environmental factors. Finally, the control chart method is used to track the changes in structural state indicators, and a plan for online automatic structure health state evaluation is proposed. This method is applied to long-term acceleration and inclination data from the Shanghai Tower and successfully identifies the changes in the structural state. Overall, the structural state indicators of the Shanghai Tower are stable, and the structure is in a healthy state.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.207-223
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• 1995

A new medical delivery system which regulated outpatient department(OPD) use from tertiary care hospitals was adopted in 1989. Under the new system, patients using tertiary care hospital OPD without referral slip from clinics or hospitals could not get any insurance benefit for the services received from the tertiary care hospital. This study was conducted to evaluate the Patient Referral System(PRS) with respect to health care expenditures and utilization. Two data sets were used in this study. One was monthly data set(from January 1986 to December 1992) from the Annual Report of Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The other was monthly joint data set composed of personal data of which 10% were selected randomly with their utilization data of KMIC from January 1988 to December 1992. The data were analyzed by time-series intervention model of SAS-ETS. The results of this study were as follows: 1. There was no statistically significant changes in per capita expenditures following PRS. 2. Utilization episodes per capita was increased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The use of clinics and hospitals increased significantly, whereas in tertiary care hospitals the use decreased significantly immediately after implementation of PRS and increased afterwards. 3. Follow-up visits per episode were decreased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The decrease of follow-up visits per episode were remarkable in clinics and hospitals, whereas in tertiary care hospitals it was increased significantly after implementation of PRS. 4. There was no statistically significant changes in prescribing days per episode following PRS. Futhermore, clinics and hospitals showed a statistically significant decrease in prescribing days per episode, whereas in tertiary care hospital it showed statistically significant increase after implementation of PRS. 5. Except high income class, the use of tertiary care hospitals showed statistically significant decrease after implementation of PRS. The degree of decrease in the use of tertiary care hospitals was inversely proportional to income. These results suggest that the PRS policy was not efficient because per capita expenditures did not decrease, and was not effective because utilization episodes per capita, follow-up visits per episode. and prescribing days per episode were not predictable and failed to show proper utilization. It was somewhat positive that utilization episodes per capita were decreased temporarily in tertiary care hospitals. And PRS policy was not appropriate because utilization episodes per capita was different among income groups. In conclusion, the PRS should be revised for initial goal attainment of cost containment and proper health care utilization.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.187-201
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• 2011

방향성(Direction)과 변동성(Volatility)에 대한 분석은 증권투자를 위한 시장분석의 기초가 된다. 변동성분석이 옵션 투자에서 중요하다면 주식이나 주가지수선물투자는 방향성분석에 의하여 투자성과가 결정된다. 기존의 금융분석에서 기계학습을 이용한 방향성에 대한 연구는 주가나 투자위험의 예측을 중심으로 이루어졌으며, 최근에 와서야 실전투자를 위한 매매시스템(trading system) 개발에 대한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 인공지능형 주가예측모형에서는 ANN(artificial neural networks), fuzzy system, SVM(Support Vector Machine) 등의 기법이 주로 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 방향성매매를 위한 지능형 기계학습방법 중에서도 패턴인식에서 좋은 성과를 보이고 있는 은닉마코프 모형(Hidden Markov Model)을 이용한다. 실무적으로는 방향성 예측을 위해 주로 주가의 추세분석(Trend Analysis)을 활용한다. 다양한 기술적 지표를 이용한 추세분석에 기반한 시스템트레이딩(System Trading) 기법은 실전투자에서 점차 확대추세에 있다. 본 연구에서는 시스템트레이딩 기법 중 실무에서 많이 이용되는 이동평균교차전략(moving average cross)에 연속 은닉마코프모형을 적용한 지능형 매매시스템을 제안하고, 실제 주가자료를 이용한 시뮬레이션 결과를 제시한다. 세계적 선물시장으로 성장한 KOSPI200 선물시장에서 제안된 매매시스템의 장기간의 투자성과를 분석하기 위하여 지난 21년 동안의 KOSPI200 주가지수자료를 실증 분석하였다. 분석결과는 KOSPI200 주가지수선물의 방향성매매에서 제안된 CHMM기반 지능형 매매시스템이 실전에서 일반적으로 활용되는 시스템트레이딩 기법의 투자성과를 개선할 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2021

무인항공기의 운항에 필수적인 탐지 회피 시스템은 침입기를 감지하여 위험을 벗어나는 데에 필요한 선회 또는 상승/하강 기동의 범위를 제시하여 준다. 본 연구에서는 탐지 회피 알고리즘으로 NASA에서 개발한 DAIDALUS (detect and avoid alerting logic for unmanned systems)를 활용하였다. DAIDALUS는 회피 기동의 범위만을 보여주기 때문에, 실제로 기동의 정도와 방향, 그리고 회피 후 원래 경로나 임무로 복귀하는 시점은 무인항공기 조종사의 결정 사항이다. 이는 실제로 조종사가 개입하는 실시간 HiTL(human-in-the loop) 시뮬레이션에서는 유용하나, 조종사의 개입 없이 시뮬레이션을 진행해야 하는 배속 시뮬레이션에서는 조종사의 의사결정 모델이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 DAIDALUS 결과를 바탕으로 기동하는 조종사의 의사결정 모델을 제시하고 이를 RTCA (radio technical commission for aeronautics) MOPS (minimum operational performance standards)에서 제시하는 표준 조우 벡터를 이용하여 검증하였다. 조우 형상에 따라 최대 위험도가 달라지지만, loss of well clear 상황은 발생하지 않았다. 이러한 모델은 무인항공기가 포함된 대규모 교통량에 대한 배속 시뮬레이션에서 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.241-246
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• 2017

Background: The purpose of this study is to investigate the trends on the induced abortion in Korea using social big-data and confirm whether there was time series trends and seasonal characteristics in induced abortion. Methods: From October 1, 2007 to October 24, 2016, we used Naver's data lab query, and the search word was 'induced abortion' in Korean. The average trend of each year was analyzed and the seasonality was analyzed using the cosinor model. Results: There was no significant changes in search volume of abortion during that period. Monthly search volume was the highest in May followed by the order of June and April. On the other hand, the lowest month was December followed by the order of January, and September. The cosinor analysis showed statistically significant seasonal variations (amplitude, 4.46; confidence interval, 1.46-7.47; p< 0.0036). The search volume for induced abortion gradually increased to the lowest point at the end of November and was the highest at the end of May and declined again from June. Conclusion: There has been no significant changes in induced abortion for the past nine years, and seasonal changes in induced abortion have been identified. Therefore, considering the seasonality of the intervention program for the prevention of induced abortion, it will be effective to concentrate on the induced abortion from March to May.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.222-233
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• 2010

해상운임의 변동은 해운업계에만 영향을 미치는데 그치지 않고 전후방 연쇄효과를 통해 조선업계를 비롯하여 경제 전반에 영향을 미친다. 따라서 해상운임의 움직임을 정확히 예측하는 것은 해운업계 뿐만 아니라 우리나라 경제에도 중요한 의미를 갖게 된다. 그러나 해상운임은 주가나 환율과 같이 다양한 요인에 의해 결정될 뿐만 아니라 최근 들어 운임의 변동성이 크게 커지는 추세이어서 예측에 상당한 어려움이 있다. 본고는 2010년의 BDI를 예측하기 위하여 가장 단순한 모형인 단변량모형인 ARIMA 모형, 개입ARIMA모형, HP 모형을 이용한다. 개입ARIMA 모형은 글로벌 금융위기와 중국효과가 미친 효과를 분석하기 위한 것이다. ARIMA모형은 2010년 말에 4,230-4.690에 도달할 것으로, 개입ARIMA모형은 낙관적인 경우 4,460-4,900선에, 비관적일 경우 2,820-2,940선이 될 것으로 예상하여 모형별로 상당한 차이를 드러내고 있다. 그런데 HP 모형에 의한 예측치는 기준 역할을 하므로 HP모형에 의한 2010년 말 예측치 3,500 포인트를 감안하면 2010년 12월에 2,820-4,230의 범주에 도달할 것으로 예측된다. 2010년 12월 2,800 포인트는 해운업계에 어두운 그림자를 드리우는 예측치이다. 그러나 낙관적인 2010년 12월 4,000포인트는 2008년 BDI가 10,000 포인트를 넘어선 때를 기억하면 그리 높게 생각되지 않을 수 있으나 4,000 포인트 이상의 BDI는 해운관련업계에게 어느 정도의 안도감을 주고 재도약을 할 수 있는 기반을 제공할 수 있는 수준으로 판단된다.