• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1149-1160
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• 2011

Model selection and hypothesis testing problems in Bayesian inference are still debated between scholars. Bayesian factors traditionally used as a criterion in Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection, are easy to understand but sometimes hard to compute. In addition, there are other model selection criterions such as DIC(Deviance Information Criterion) by Spiegelhalter et al. (2002) and Bayesian P-values for testing. In this paper, we briefly introduce the Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection procedure. In addition we have applied a Bayesian inference to Swiss banknote data by a fitting logistic regression model and computing several test statistics to see if they provide consistent results.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.151-165
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• 2009

Fuzzy neural network is an integrated model of artificial neural network and fuzzy system and it has been successfully applied in control and forecasting area. Recently ANFIS(Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System) has been noticed widely among various fuzzy neural network models because of its outstanding accuracy of control and forecasting area. We design a new classification model based on ANFIS and evaluate it in terms of classification accuracy. We identified ANFIS-based classification model has higher classification accuracy compared to existing classification model, C5.0 decision tree model by comparing their experimental results.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.49 no.8
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• pp.423-431
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• 2000

This paper presents a systematic approach to the input-output data-based fuzzy modeling for the complex and uncertain nonlinear systems, in which the conventional mathematical models may fail to give the satisfying results. To do this, we propose a new method that can yield a successful fuzzy model using a mGA hybrid schemes with a fine-tuning method. We also propose a new coding method fo chromosome for applying the mGA to the structure and parameter identifications of fuzzy model simultaneously. During mGA search, multi-purpose fitness function with a penalty process is proposed and adapted to guarantee the accurate and valid fuzzy modes. This coding scheme can effectively represent the zero-order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. The proposed mGA hybrid schemes can coarsely optimize the structure and the parameters of the fuzzy inference system, and then fine tune the identified fuzzy model by using the gradient descent method. In order to demonstrate the superiority and efficiency of the proposed scheme, we finally show its applications to two nonlinear systems.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.1345-1368
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• 2016

This paper presents the probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework. This framework combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures. The paper starts by describing current structural assessment algorithms and the most relevant uncertainty sources. The developed model identification algorithm is then presented. During this procedure, the model parameters are automatically adjusted, so that the numerical results best fit the experimental data. Modelling and measurement errors are respectively incorporated in this algorithm. The reliability assessment procedure aims to assess the structure performance, considering randomness in model parameters. Since monitoring and characterization tests are common measures to control and acquire information about those parameters, a Bayesian inference procedure is incorporated to update the reliability assessment. The framework is then tested with a set of composite steel-concrete beams, which behavior is complex. The experimental tests, as well as the developed numerical model and the obtained results from the proposed framework, are respectively present.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.147-177
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• 2023

Elliptical concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) column is widely used in modern structures for both aesthetical appeal and structural performance benefits. The ultimate axial load is a critical factor for designing the elliptical CFST short columns. However, there are complications of geometric and material interactions, which make a difficulty in determining a simple model for predicting the ultimate axial load of elliptical CFST short columns. This study aims to propose an efficient adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for predicting the ultimate axial load of elliptical CFST short columns. In the proposed method, the ANFIS model is used to establish a relationship between the ultimate axial load and geometric and material properties of elliptical CFST short columns. Accordingly, a total of 188 experimental and simulation datasets of elliptical CFST short columns are used to develop the ANFIS models. The performance of the proposed ANFIS model is compared with that of existing design formulas. The results show that the proposed ANFIS model is more accurate than existing empirical and theoretical formulas. Finally, an explicit formula and a Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool are developed to apply the proposed ANFIS model for practical use.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.37 no.9
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• pp.659-668
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• 2010

Collaborative filtering systems grasp behaviors for a new user and need new information for the user in order to recommend interesting items to the user. For the purpose of acquiring the information the collaborative filtering systems learn behaviors for users based on the previous data and can obtain new information from the results. In this paper, we propose an inductive inference method to obtain new information for users and rank items by using the new information in the proposed method. The proposed method clusters users into groups by learning users through NMF among inductive machine learning methods and selects the group features from the groups by using chi-square. Then, the method classifies a new user into a group by using the bayesian probability model as one of inductive inference methods based on the rating values for the new user and the features of groups. Finally, the method decides the ranks of items by applying the Rocchio algorithm to items with the missing values.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.23 no.9
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• pp.1060-1069
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• 2019

Pedestrian-based camera self-calibration methods are suitable for video surveillance systems since they do not require complex calibration devices or procedures. However, using arbitrary pedestrians as calibration targets may result in poor calibration accuracy due to the unknown height of each pedestrian. To solve this problem in the real surveillance environments, this paper proposes a novel Bayesian approach. By assuming known statistics on the height of pedestrians, we construct a probabilistic model that takes into account uncertainties in both the foot/head locations and the pedestrian heights, using foot-head homology. Since solving the model directly is infeasible, we use variational Bayesian inference, an approximate inference algorithm. Accordingly, this makes it possible to estimate the height of pedestrians and to obtain accurate camera parameters simultaneously. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is robust to noise and provides accurate confidence in the calibration.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.271-279
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• 2018

Purpose: Probabilistic safety analysis was performed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants because traditional deterministic approach has limitations in predicting the risk of failure by crack growth. The study introduces a probabilistic approach to establish a basis for probabilistic safety assessment of passive components. Methods: For probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR), various FCGR tests were performed either under constant load amplitude or constant ${\Delta}K$ conditions by using heat treated X-750 at low temperature with adequate cathodic polarization. Bayesian inference was employed to update uncertainties of the FCGR model using additional information obtained from constant ${\Delta}K$ tests. Results: Four steps of Bayesian parameter updating were performed using constant ${\Delta}K$ test results. The standard deviation of the final posterior distribution was decreased by a factor of 10 comparing with that of the prior distribution. Conclusion: The method for developing a probabilistic crack growth model has been designed and demonstrated, in the paper. Alloy X-750 has been used for corrosion fatigue crack growth experiments and modeling. The uncertainties of parameters in the FCGR model were successfully reduced using the Bayesian inference whenever the updating was performed.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.149-154
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• 2016

Background: Any real application of Bayesian inference must acknowledge that both prior distribution and likelihood function have only been specified as more or less convenient approximations to whatever the analyzer's true belief might be. If the inferences from the Bayesian analysis are to be trusted, it is important to determine that they are robust to such variations of prior and likelihood as might also be consistent with the analyzer's stated beliefs. Materials and Methods: The robust Bayesian inference was applied to atmospheric dispersion assessment using Gaussian plume model. The scopes of contaminations were specified as the uncertainties of distribution type and parametric variability. The probabilistic distribution of model parameters was assumed to be contaminated as the symmetric unimodal and unimodal distributions. The distribution of the sector-averaged relative concentrations was then calculated by applying the contaminated priors to the model parameters. Results and Discussion: The sector-averaged concentrations for stability class were compared by applying the symmetric unimodal and unimodal priors, respectively, as the contaminated one based on the class of ${\varepsilon}$-contamination. Though ${\varepsilon}$ was assumed as 10%, the medians reflecting the symmetric unimodal priors were nearly approximated within 10% compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. However, the medians reflecting the unimodal priors were approximated within 20% for a few downwind distances compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. Conclusion: The robustness has been answered by estimating how the results of the Bayesian inferences are robust to reasonable variations of the plausible priors. From these robust inferences, it is reasonable to apply the symmetric unimodal priors for analyzing the robustness of the Bayesian inferences.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.128-135
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• 2015

In this study, we develop the very short-term precipitation forecasting model as well as classifier based on polynomial radial basis function neural networks by using AWS(Automatic Weather Station) and KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological data. The polynomial-based radial basis function neural networks is designed to realize precipitation forecasting model as well as classifier. The structure of the proposed RBFNNs consists of three modules such as condition, conclusion, and inference phase. The input space of the condition phase is divided by using Fuzzy C-means(FCM) and the local area of the conclusion phase is represented as four types of polynomial functions. The coefficients of connection weights are estimated by weighted least square estimation(WLSE) for modeling as well as least square estimation(LSE) method for classifier. The final output of the inference phase is obtained through fuzzy inference method. The essential parameters of the proposed model and classifier such ad input variable, polynomial order type, the number of rules, and fuzzification coefficient are optimized by means of Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) and Differential Evolution(DE). The performance of the proposed precipitation forecasting system is evaluated by using KLAPS meteorological data.