• Title/Summary/Keyword: inference model

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Relative importance of climatic and habitat factors on plant richness along elevation gradients on the Mt. Baekhwa, South Korea (백화산 고도별 식물 종풍부도에 대한 기후 및 서식지 인자의 상대적 중요성)

  • Lee, Chang-Bae;Chun, Jung-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.233-242
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    • 2018
  • This study explored the richness patterns of vascular plant species and evaluated the effects of the climatic and habitat variables on the observed patterns along elevational gradients on the Mt. Baekhwa, South Korea. Plant data were recorded from 70 plots and a total of 187 plant species with 78 woody and 109 herbaceous species were recorded along two study transects, the Banyasa and Bohyunsa transects, on the Mt. Baekhwa. A total of 154 plant species with 66 woody and 88 herbaceous species and 131 plant species with 58 woody and 73 herbaceous species were recorded along the Banyasa and Bohyunsa transects, respectively. We used simple ordinary least squares regression model, multi-model inference and variation partitioning to analyze the relative contribution of climatic and habitat variables on the elevational richness patterns. Species richness pattern for vascular plants along the Banyasa transect monotonically decreased with elevation, whereas plant species richness showed reversed hump-shaped pattern along the Bohyunsa transect. Although the elevational patterns of species richness for vascular plants were different between the both transects, habitat variables are more important predictors than climatic variables for the elevational patterns of plant species richness along our study transects on the Mt. Baekhwa. These results indicate that elevational diversity patterns of vascular plants may be different even between nearby elevational transects in a mountain ecosystem but the diversity patterns may be controlled by same drivers.

Korea's Natural Rate of Unemployment: Estimates and Assessment (한국의 자연실업률 추정)

  • Shin, Sukha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.3-62
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    • 2004
  • This paper estimates Korea's natural rate of unemployment using various estimation methods such as pure time-series methods, reduced-form methods, and structural form methods, with discussion about relative advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. This paper also provides the confidence interval of the estimated natural rate of unemployment by the Monte Carlo integration method. Though multivariate unobserved component model exhibits better performance in many aspects than other estimation methods, awareness should be raised for a potential misspecification problem of a multivariate unobserved component model. Considering that each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to make an inference on the natural rate of unemployment based on common results among various methods. Korea's natural rate of unemployment was estimated to be around 3.8~4.0% on average in the period of 1979:I~1987:IV, and to decline to 2.5~2.9% in the period of 1988:I~1997:IV. During the Asian crisis, it is estimated to peak at near 4.8% and to have been on a downward trend since then.

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A Study on Creative Cognition of Language based concept Generation of Game Graphics (언어기반 게임그래픽 디자인 발상의 창의적 인지에 관한 연구)

  • Huh, Yoon-Jung
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2011
  • In this paper it is hypothesized that word stimuli that are presented by Google’s search word, would improve the quality of the design solution, so this research examines the effect of related search word stimuli in concept generation and analyzes the results through the processes of creative cognition. In the process of concept generation, words are given as stimuli which are generated through Google's related search and these search words are given by 5 levels. Google search is based on the collaboration philosophy. People's participation and contribution recreate knowledge and information, so these renewed and related search words update in real time by people are used as stimuli. Two problems are provided with related search words. After the design concept generation the results are analyzed by 3 bases: the usage of related search words and those of frequency, creativity, and Finke's 12 Geneplore model. These are the results of the research. Many levels of related search words are used in design concept generation but especially higher levels which are more related to search words are more used than lower levels. The usage of multi words and conjunction with higher levels and lower levels words are observed in creative results. On the creative cognitive processes, it is more creative when using association and mental transformation with the related search words than using the related search words simply. Creative outputs also use conceptual interpretation, functional inference, and contextual shifting of creative cognitive processes of Finke's 12 Geneplore model.

EM Algorithm and Two Stage Model for Incomplete Data (불완전한 자료에 대한 보완기법(EM 알고리듬과 2단계(Two Stage) 모델))

  • 박경숙
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.162-183
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    • 1998
  • This study examines the sampling bias that may have resulted from the large number of missing observations. Despite well-designed and reliable sampling procedures, the observed sample values in DSFH(Demographic Survey on Changes in Family and Household Structure, Japan) included many missing observations. The head administerd survey method of DSFH resulted in a large number of missing observations regarding characteristics of elderly non-head parents and their children. In addition, the response probability of a particular item in DSFH significantly differs by characteristics of elderly parents and their children. Furthermore, missing observations of many items occurred simultaneously. This complex pattern of missing observations critically limits the ability to produce an unbiased analysis. First, the large number of missing observations is likely to cause a misleading estimate of the standard error. Even worse, the possible dependency of missing observations on their latent values is likely to produce biased estimates of covariates. Two models are employed to solve the possible inference biases. First, EM algorithm is used to infer the missing values based on the knowledge of the association between the observed values and other covariates. Second, a selection model was employed given the suspicion that the probability of missing observations of proximity depends on its unobserved outcome.

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Interpretation of Subsurface Fracture Characteristics by Fracture Mapping and Geophysical Loggings (단열조사 및 물리검층을 통한 지표 하 단열특성 해석)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Lee, Dae-Ha;Kim, Yu-Sung;Hwang, Se-Ho;Kee, Weon-Seo;Kim, Won-Young;Lee, Seung-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2001
  • As a preliminary study to establish fracture network model in crystalline rocks, detail investigation on fracture characteristics were performed. Five fracture sets were determined on the basis of regional survey of geological structures and fractures on outcrops. Among the fracture sets, S1 set has the highest density and longest trace length of fractures which was identified on surface in the study area. S4 and S5 sets are composed of foliations and foliation parallel shear joints of gneisses, which are very important sets at the aspect of weighting of fracture length. For characterization of subsurface fractures, detail core logging was performed to identify fractures and fracture zones from five boreholes. Acoustic televiewer logging and borehole geophysical loggings produced images, orientations and geophysical properties of fractures which intersect with boreholes. According to the result of the investigations, subsurface fractures can be grouped as three preferred orientations(B1, B2 and B3), which correspond to S1, S2 and S4/S5 of surface fracture sets, respectively. Actually, B1 set is expected to be intensely developed at subsurface. However, it has low frequency of intersection with boreholes due to its parallel or sub-parallel direction to boreholes. According to the inference of conductive fractures, B1 and B3 sets have possibilities of water flow and their intersection lines are also thought to consist of important conduits of groundwater flow. In particular, faults which are parallel to foliations control major groundwater flow in the study area.

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Analysis of Survivability for Combatants during Offensive Operations at the Tactical Level (전술제대 공격작전간 전투원 생존성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jaeoh;Cho, HyungJun;Kim, GakGyu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.921-932
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed military personnel survivability in regards to offensive operations according to the scientific military training data of a reinforced infantry battalion. Scientific battle training was conducted at the Korea Combat Training Center (KCTC) training facility and utilized scientific military training equipment that included MILES and the main exercise control system. The training audience freely engaged an OPFOR who is an expert at tactics and weapon systems. It provides a statistical analysis of data in regards to state-of-the-art military training because the scientific battle training system saves and utilizes all training zone data for analysis and after action review as well as offers training control during the training period. The methodologies used the Cox PH modeling (which does not require parametric distribution assumptions) and decision tree modeling for survival data such as CART, GUIDE, and CTREE for richer and easier interpretation. The variables that violate the PH assumption were stratified and analyzed. Since the Cox PH model result was not easy to interpret the period of service, additional interpretation was attempted through univariate local regression. CART, GUIDE, and CTREE formed different tree models which allow for various interpretations.

Inference of the Conceptual Model of Wild Gardens - A Comparative Study of William Robinson and Gertrude Jekyll - (와일드 가든(Wild Garden)의 개념적 모형 유추 - 윌리암 로빈슨(William Robinson)과 거투르드 제킬(Gertrude Jekyll)의 비교 연구 -)

  • Park, Eun-Yeong;Yoon, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2013
  • The origin of natural planting, which is getting the spotlight in modern time facing natural and environmental problems, can be found from wild gardens. They were started by William Robinson and concretely embodied by Gertrude Jekyll. It is worth shedding new light on wild gardens, as they served as a pathbreaker for ecological design and an important foundation for the specialization of naturalism, which are part of the most important topics in modern gardens. This study aimed to infer the conceptual model of wild gardens and identify their historic significance by comparatively analyzing Robinson's Gravetye Manor and Jekyll's Munstead Wood. The results are: Firstly, they inherited inspirations for spatial organization from basic cottage gardens and introduced informal forms. Secondly, in terms of the use of materials, they had observed various climates in their journeys so that they could use both native and naturalized plants based on their understanding of the plants' hardiness and exotic species. They also displayed interests in plants in the woodlands and forests. Thirdly, in terms of design techniques, they investigated the colors and textures of individual plants and their relationships to produce a variety of views that resembled nature in microcosm. Fourthly, in terms of maintenance, their basic orientation was the minimum maintenance to allow plants to live according to their nature.

Development of a surrogate model based on temperature for estimation of evapotranspiration and its use for drought index applicability assessment (증발산 산정을 위한 온도기반의 대체모형 개발 및 가뭄지수 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Jun;Kim, Kyoungwook;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.969-983
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    • 2021
  • Evapotranspiration, one of the hydrometeorological components, is considered an important variable for water resource planning and management and is primarily used as input data for hydrological models such as water balance models. The FAO56 PM method has been recommended as a standard approach to estimate the reference evapotranspiration with relatively high accuracy. However, the FAO56 PM method is often challenging to apply because it requires considerable hydrometeorological variables. In this perspective, the Hargreaves equation has been widely adopted to estimate the reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a set of parameters of the Hargreaves equation was calibrated with relatively long-term data within a Bayesian framework. Statistical index (CC, RMSE, IoA) is used to validate the model. RMSE for monthly results reduced from 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month to 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month for the validation period. The results confirmed that the accuracy was significantly improved compared to the existing Hargreaves equation. Further, the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) based on the evaporative demand (E0) was proposed. To confirm the effectiveness of the EDDI, this study evaluated the estimated EDDI for the recent drought events from 2014 to 2015 and 2018, along with precipitation and SPI. As a result of the evaluation of the Han-river watershed in 2018, the weekly EDDI increased to more than 2 and it was confirmed that EDDI more effectively detects the onset of drought caused by heatwaves. EDDI can be used as a drought index, particularly for heatwave-driven flash drought monitoring and along with SPI.

Evaluation of flood frequency analysis technique using measured actual discharge data (실측유량 자료를 활용한 홍수량 빈도해석 기법 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Song, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2022
  • For water resource management, the design flood is calculated using the flood frequency analysis technique and the rainfall runoff model. The method by design flood frequency analysis calculates the stochastic design flood by directly analyzing the actual discharge data and is theoretically evaluated as the most accurate method. Actual discharge data frequency analysis of the measured flow was limited due to data limitations in the existing flood flow analysis. In this study, design flood frequency analysis was performed using the measured flow data stably secured through the water level-discharge relationship curve formula. For the frequency analysis of design flood, the parameters were calculated by applying the bayesian inference, and the uncertainty of flood volume by frequency was quantified. It was confirmed that the result of calculating the design flood was close to that calculated by the rainfall-runoff model by applying long-term rainfall data. It is judged that hydrological analysis can be done from various perspectives by using long-term actual flow data through hydrological survey.

Efficient Poisoning Attack Defense Techniques Based on Data Augmentation (데이터 증강 기반의 효율적인 포이즈닝 공격 방어 기법)

  • So-Eun Jeon;Ji-Won Ock;Min-Jeong Kim;Sa-Ra Hong;Sae-Rom Park;Il-Gu Lee
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the image processing industry has been activated as deep learning-based technology is introduced in the image recognition and detection field. With the development of deep learning technology, learning model vulnerabilities for adversarial attacks continue to be reported. However, studies on countermeasures against poisoning attacks that inject malicious data during learning are insufficient. The conventional countermeasure against poisoning attacks has a limitation in that it is necessary to perform a separate detection and removal operation by examining the training data each time. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a technique for reducing the attack success rate by applying modifications to the training data and inference data without a separate detection and removal process for the poison data. The One-shot kill poison attack, a clean label poison attack proposed in previous studies, was used as an attack model. The attack performance was confirmed by dividing it into a general attacker and an intelligent attacker according to the attacker's attack strategy. According to the experimental results, when the proposed defense mechanism is applied, the attack success rate can be reduced by up to 65% compared to the conventional method.