• 제목/요약/키워드: income elasticity

검색결과 113건 처리시간 0.023초

시계열 자료를 이용한 도시가스의 수요함수 추정 (Estimation of city gas demand function using time series data)

  • 이승재;어승섭;유승훈
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 1981년부터 2012년까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 도시가스의 수요함수를 추정하고자 한다. 도시가스의 수요함수는 수용가의 도시가스 수요행태에 대한 정보를 제공하여 가격과 같은 주요 정책변수의 효과를 사전적으로 진단하는 데, 그리고 수요예측을 하는 데 유용하게 활용된다. 시계열 데이터를 효과적으로 활용하기 위하여 내생시차변수 모형을 활용하였고, 수요함수의 모수에 대한 강건한 추정치를 얻기 위해 최소자승법 추정법을 사용하였다. 단기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성은 각각 -0.522 및 0.874로 추정되었으며 유의수준 1%에서 통계적으로 유의하였다. 단기 가격탄력성은 가격에 비탄력적인 도시가스수요의 특징을 보여주고 있으며, 단기 소득탄력성 역시 비탄력적으로 추정되어 소득 증감에 따라 도시가스의 수요가 크게 변화지 않음을 알 수 있다. 반면, 장기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성은 각각 -2.155 및 3.607로 나타나 탄력적임을 알 수 있다.

내생시차변수모형을 이용한 전력수요함수 추정 (Estimation of the electricity demand function using a lagged dependent variable model)

  • 안소연;진세준;유승훈
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2016
  • 2차 에너지인 전력은 다양한 연료를 발전원으로 하고 있기 때문에, 전력에 대한 수요는 에너지 각 부문에 적지 않은 영향을 미친다. 이에 본 논문에서는 전력수요함수를 추정하여 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성에 대한 정량적 정보를 도출하고자 한다. 이를 위해 1991년부터 2014년까지의 연간 시계열 자료를 이용하되, 탄력성을 단기와 장기를 구분하여 추정할 수 있는 내생시차변수모형을 적용한다. 종속변수로는 연간 전력수요, 독립변수로는 상수항, 전력실질가격, 실질 국내총생산의 3가지를 이용한다. 분석결과 단기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성은 각각 -0.142 및 0.866으로 추정되었으며 유의수준 5%에서 통계적으로 유의하다. 즉 전력수요는 단기적인 관점에서 가격 변화에 대해 비탄력적임과 동시에 소득 변화에 대해서도 비탄력적이다. 장기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성을 추정한 결과를 살펴보면 각각 -0.210 및 1.287이며 이 값은 유의수준 5%에서 통계적으로 유의하다. 장기적인 관점에서 보더라도 전력수요는 가격 변화에 대해 여전히 비탄력적인 반면에, 소득 변화에 대해서는 전력수요가 탄력적으로 변한다. 따라서 가격정책 위주의 수요관리정책은 단기 및 장기 모두 효과가 제한적이며, 향후 예상되는 소득 증가에 기인하는 전력수요의 증가는 단기보다는 장기에 보다 두드러질 것으로 예상된다.

시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정 (Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data)

  • 정동원;황병소;유승훈
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • 본 논문에서는 1981년부터 2012년까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 등유수요함수를 추정하고자 한다. 등유수요함수는 수용가의 등유 수요행태에 대한 정보를 제공하여 가격과 같은 주요 정책변수의 효과를 사전적으로 진단하는 데, 그리고 수요예측을 하는 데 유용하게 활용된다. 수요함수의 모수에 대한 강건한 추정치를 얻기 위해 최소자승법 추정법 뿐만 아니라 최소절대편차법 및 LMS 추정법을 사용하였다. 단기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성은 각각 -0.468 및 0.409로 추정되었으며 유의수준 1%에서 통계적으로 유의하였다. 단기 가격탄력성은 가격에 비탄력적인 등유수요의 특징을 보여주고 있으며, 단기 소득탄력성 역시 비탄력적으로 추정되어 소득 증감에 따라 등유의 수요가 크게 변화지 않음을 알 수 있다. 반면, 장기 가격탄력성 및 소득탄력성은 각각 -4.560 및 3.990으로 나타나 탄력적임을 알 수 있다.

양식해태의 유통에 관한 조사 연구 (A Study on Marketing of Cultured Laver Products)

  • 유충열
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제4권1_2호
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    • pp.19-57
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    • 1973
  • Laver io one of the most necessary and seasonal items in Korean food from oldtimes. Laver is lagely eaten in dried form, and its supply depends entirely upon culture weeds. The history of laver culture in Korea about sixty or seventy years is older than in Japan. Significance of laver culture is divided into two aspects, one is food supply in the nation, and the other is export to other countries. Houses engaged in laver culture are about foully thousands, and laver production in 1972 is estimated as 1, 3 bitten sheets. (1 sheet is a dried laver of 20 cm sq, in the shape of paper) Especcially meaning of layer production is the concentration of labour input, and systematic management of labour. From around 1920, the method of laver culture was introduced by Japanese Imperialism for mono culture in shallow seas, and mass products of laver is provided to Japan market, DOMESTIC MARKET Fundamental consume function calculates at below, $D_{(68_71)}$=16354 $Y^{0.471}$ $P^{-1.0662}$ where D is total layer demand, Y income variable, P price variable. It means income elasticity is 476. in the whole country, and price elasticity is 1, 07. But generally income elasticity is higher in urban area than in rural area, as shown at 1, 3 in Seoul city. Expence of laver in house expenditure is mutually correlated with another expence, See Table 12 about the relative function. See Table 14 and 16 about the relation between the gathering and the changes of price in auction, wholesale and retail price support system is for two effects, one of which is constraint of the upper price, the other is rise of the lower price. Before the system control, the equation in three year average calculated as below, $Y_{b}$ =18, 907.7455+15435.9364 t (r=0.89) where the origin t=0 is the November and the units are month. Post the system control, $Y_{p}$ =30, 047.9636+1, 631.1721t (r=0.97) therefore, this system has an effect only on the rise of lower price, Average annual margins of laver products at four market levels according to the consumer spent is below. EXPORTING MARKET Japanese demand function of laver products is, Log D=5, 289+1, 108 Log Y-1, 395 Log P (r=0.987) where D is Japanese laver demand, Y income variable, P price variable. according to which income elasticity is 1. 1 and price elasticity is 1.4. Laver production in 1970 tile highest record till then, is estimated as six billion sheets. But the recent improvement of laver culture techniques, the production of seeds and freezing storage of seeds has been stabilized. Futher new culture farms have been developed by means of break- water fences or by floating culture method. These improvements have been backed up with increased demand of laver products. Import quantity and price of Korean laver products are restrained by three organizations, that is producer, distributor and consumer. This relationship calculated by regression equation shows that import is influenced only producer organization, at the sacrifice of consumer profit. For increase to export of laver products, we urgently require to open foreign trade of laver products for Japanese consumer, .and Japan has political responsibility to solve Korean laver structure. But with long run timeseries, as regards Japanese production and import quantity, importing function shows increasing trend as below, 250 million sheets <3, 947.1674+0.005 $L_{g}$ >) 600 million sheets where $L_{q}$ is relative production quantity of laver in Japan. (unit; 100 thousand sheets) Our Export effort should be put on the highly processed products whithin the restraind quote.ote.

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레포츠피싱을 통한 어가소득 증대에 관한 연구 (Feasibility of Enhancing Fishing Household Income Through Leports-fishing Development)

  • 박성쾌
    • 한국수산경영학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수산경영학회 2007년도 춘계학술발표회 및 심포지엄
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    • pp.133-158
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    • 2007
  • This study aims at analyzing the potential of leports-fishing for improving fishing household income. Leports-fishing is a composite concept which is combined with those of leisure, sports and fishing. Korean on-shore resources have also a composite characteristic. The characteristics of the east, west and south coastal waters are quite different in geography, biology and ecology. There is a array of leports-fishing development potentials of utilizing their characteristics. At present, angling forms a main activity of leports-fishing, but coastal seas would be an emerging space for the public. In order for them to be a ground of fun, enjoyment and festivals, there would be necessary to supply a wide range of activities including angling, scuba diving, fish barbecue, ecological experience, fishing experience, cruise, and so forth. As seen in the survey results, the participants have strong desire for fun and enjoyment through leports-fishing activities. The proportion of people participating in one or two times a year amounts to 40 percent. Most coastal places visited are close to medium/large cities and two-days leports-fishing/ tourism accounts for some 77 percent. However, it is shown that conflicts between leports-fishing participants and fishermen are not serious. The results of expenditure function estimation appear that the elasticity of per capita income is very high with 1.2660 and that there are negative relationships between leports-fishing expenditure and transportation/food/lodging costs. Assuming the economic growth rate of 4 percent, it is anticipated that Korean leports-fishing population will increase to 3.18 million in 2010 and 4.07 million in 2015. Korean leports-fishing market potential in 2015, which is calculated based on per capita expenditure on leports-fishing appeared to be 1,400 billion won$\sim$1,600 billion won. The contribution of such market potential is expected to be 62.3$\sim$74.2 percent(934.5 billion won$\sim$111.3 billion won) to the fishing households.

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레포츠피싱을 통한 어가소득 증대에 관한 연구 (Feasibility of Enhancing Fishing Household Income Through Leports-fishing Development)

  • 박성쾌;김수진;김영자
    • 수산해양교육연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.180-196
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    • 2007
  • This study aims at analyzing the potential of leports-fishing for improving fishing household income. Leports-fishing is a composite concept which is combined with those of leisure, sports and fishing. Korean on-shore resources have also a composite characteristic. The properties of the east, west and south coastal waters are quite different in geography, biology and ecology. There is a array of leports-fishing development potentials of utilizing their characteristics. At present, angling forms a main activity of leports-fishing, but coastal seas would be an emerging space for the public. In order for them to be a ground of fun, enjoyment and festivals, it would be necessary to supply a wide range of activities and facilities including angling, scuba diving, fish barbecue, ecological experience, fishing experience, cruise, and so forth. As seen in the survey results, the participants have strong desire for fun and enjoyment through leports-fishing activities. The proportion of people participating in one or two times a year amounts to 40 percent. Most coastal places visited are close to medium/large cities and two-days leports-fishing/tourism accounts for some 77 percent. However, it turned out that conflicts between leports-fishing participants and fishermen are not serious. The results of expenditure function estimation appear that the elasticity of per capita income is very high with 1.2660 and that there are negative relationships between leports-fishing expenditure and transportation/food/lodging costs. Assuming the annual national economic growth rate of 4 percent, it is anticipated that Korean leports-fishing population will increase to 3.18 million in 2010 and 4.07 million in 2015. Korean leports-fishing market potential in 2015, which is calculated based on per capita expenditure on leports-fishing, appears to amount to 1,400 billion won~1,600 billion won. The contribution of such market potential to the fishing households is expected to be 62.3~74.2 percent(934.5 billion won~111.3 billion won).

시도별 패널데이터를 이용한 경유제품 수요함수 추정 (Estimation of diesel fuel demand function using panel data)

  • 임찬수
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.80-92
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 1998년부터 2015년까지의 16개 시도별 경유수요량, 경유제품 판매가격(유통단계), 및 총 부가가치생산의 패널데이터를 이용하여, 패널GLS, 고정효과(Fixed Effect), 확률효과(Random Effect) 및 동적패널(Dynamic Panel) 모형을 통해 국내 경유수요함수를 추정하고, 이를 통해 가격탄력성과 소득탄력성을 추정하였다. 단기 가격탄력성은 -0.2146(패널GLS), -0.2886(고정효과), -0.2854(확률효과), -0.1905(동적패널)로 추정되었고, 단기 소득탄력성은 0.7379(패널GLS), 0.4119(고정효과), 0.7260(확률효과), 0.4166(동적패널)로 추정되었는데, 모두 비탄력적인 것으로 나타났다. 장기 가격탄력성과 장기 소득탄력성은 동적패널을 통해 추정하였고, 각각 -0.4784, 1.0461로 유의하게 나타났다. 경유 수요는 소득에 증감에 대해 단기적으로는 비탄력적이나, 장기적으로는 탄력적으로 나타나고 있다. 추가로 서울지역을 기준으로 지역변수를 더미변수(Dummy Variables)로 하여 각 지역의 경유수요로의 효과를 검정하였는데, 10개 지역에서 상대적으로 유의하게 추정되었다.

개별 가계특성에 따른 주택특성에 대한 수요행태 - 상품특성접근법의 적용- (Demand Behavior for Housing Characteristics According to Individual Household's Characteristics- Application of product Characteristic Approach-)

  • 이혜선;김용희
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 1987
  • Product characteristic approach and hedonic method were explained and applied to demand behavior of housing for 360 households sampled from four districts of Seoul. Th major findings are: 1) Housing prices are determined by housing characteristics, i.e., basic structure, interior space, interior quality, and neighborhood quality. 2) as income increase , the demand for basic structure, interior space, interior of quality, and neighbor hood quality increases. As compared to the counties that have advanced housing financial systems, income elasticity form housing characteristics was low. 3) householder's educational level has insignificant effects on the demand for neighborhood quality. 4) the housing need of family is different to a family life cycle. In the first stage, the increase of income enhances the demand for basic structure. interior space, and interior quality, but inversed with neighborhood quality. In the second and third stages, the demand for basic structure, interior space, and interior quality increases as the income increases. 5) It is predicted that the larger the family size, the more housing space is required. But in the low-income group, an increase in family size results in a decrease in the demand for interior space because expenses for food and education are indispensable ones. In the middle -income group the demand for interior space, interior quality increases as the family size increases, In the high-income group, the larger the family size the more interior quality is demanded. As mentioned above, the demand for housing is derived form characteristics and the demand behavior far housing characteristics is varied with individual household's characteristics. Therefore, the fact that different housing needs according to various income groups should be considered in housing policy.

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가계유형에 따른 소비지출행동 분석: 편모가계와 양부모가계의 비교 (Analysis of the Expenditure Behavior by Family Types: Comparison of single-mother families and two-parent families)

  • 차경욱
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the consumption expenditure patterns and the effects of socioeconomic variables on expenditure between single-mother families and two-parent families. From the 2001 Household Income and Expenditure Survey conducted by Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO), 693 single-mother families and 14,439 two-parent families were selected. A t-test was completed to examine how the expenditure patterns of two types of families differ. Total expenditures and expenditures on 11 consumption categories were modeled as functions of permanent income and other socioeconomic variables. Also, dummy variable interaction technique was used to examine whether the independent variables differently affected the expenditures between single-mother families and two-parent families. The results of this study indicated that there were differences between single-mother and two-parent families in the levels and shares of expenditures of each consumption category, and the effects of socioeconomic variables on expenditures. Single-mother families had spent less than did two-parent families in each consumption category. However, single-mother families had significantly higher expenditure shares for food at home, shelter, utilities, apparel and shoes, and education. Income elasticities for food at home, shelter, utilities, and education of single-mother families were significantly larger than those of two- parent families.

한국경제개발 계획년도별 가계소비지출 구조분석 (An Analysis of the Household Consumption Expenditure Structure by the Korean Economic-Development Plan Years)

  • 박선미;김영숙
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is to consider the socio-economic development and policy in each five-year economic development plan influences of urban households and to seek a plan of household stability and reasonable consumption expenditure on the aspect of Family economics. Data is based on the "Annual Report on the Family Income and Expenditure survey" of the National Bureau of Statistic Economic Planning Board, Republic of Korea and analyzed as follows: First, in analysis to the structure of consumption expenditure, the averaged percentage of each item to total consumption expenditure is estimated by each Economics Development Plan year. Second, in order to analyze the relative importance value of household consumption expenditure, priority correlation order is derived from comparison of characteristics of household consumption expenditures by multiple regression analysis. Third the patterns of consumption expenditure of salary and wage earner's households in all cities are estimated by the household consumption function, marginal propensity to consume, and income elasticity, according to socio-economic variable, and demographic variable. In the recent Korean economy, income level of household is increased and consumption expenditure level is largely increased because of the execution of economic development plan. But the improvement of income derives the increasment of the consumption needs and over-consumption trend is spread due to the import liberization. And above all, the reasonable household management and economic life are needed.

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