• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.480-492
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• 2013

After the introduction of geothermal power generation technology based on engineering reservoir creation that can be applied on non-volcanic region, industrial need for studies on the efficient and economic execution of costly deep-depth drilling work becomes manifest increasingly. However, since it is very difficult to predict duration and cost of boring work with acceptable reliability because of many uncertain events during the execution, efficient and organized work management for drilling is not easily achievable. Especially, the round trip that discretely occurs because of the abrasion of bit takes more time as the depth goes deeper and it has a great impact on the work performance. Therefore, a technology that can simulate the occurrence timing and depth of round trip in advance and therefore optimize them is essentially required. This study divided the abrasion state of bit into eight steps for simulation cases and developed a forecast algorithm, i.e., TOSA which can analyze the depth and timing of round trip occurrence. A methodology that can divide a unit section for simulation has been suggested; while the Bourgoyne and Young model has been used for the forecast of drilling rates and bit abrasion extent by section. Lastly, the designed algorithm has been systemized for the convenience of the user.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.112-121
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• 2007

In occasion of soil loss happened in a basin, soil in the near of a stream may flow into the stream easily, but in case that soil is far away from the stream, sediment yield transferred to rivers by rainfall diminishes. To forecast sediment yield of a stream is an essential item for management of basins and streams. Therefore, sediment yield of soil loss produced from a basin is needed to be calculated as accurate as possible. Purpose of the present research is to calculate soil erosion amount in a basin and to forecast sediment yield flowed into a stream by rainfall and analyze sediment yield in the stream. There are various methods that analyze sediment yield of rivers. In the present study, the soil erosion amount was calculated using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) and GRID, and sediment yield was calculated using sediment delivery ratio and empirical methods. DEM data, slope of basin, soil map and landuse constructed by GIS were used for input data of RUSLE. The upstream area of the Yeongsan river basin in Gwangju metropolitan city was selected for the study area. Three methods according to the calculation of LS factor were applied to estimate the soil erosion amount. Two sediment delivery ratio methods for the respective methods were applied and, correspondingly, six occasions in sediment yield were calculated. In addition, the above results were compared by relative amount with estimation by the empirical method of Ministry of Construction & Transportation. Sediment yield calculated in the present study may be utilized for the plan, design and management of dams and channels, and evaluation of disaster impact.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.9
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• pp.529-541
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• 2023

Due to the growing concern over forecasting extreme weather events such as droughts caused by climate change, there has been a rising interest in seasonal meteorological forecasts that offer ensemble predictions for the upcoming seven months. Nonetheless, limited research has been conducted in South Korea, particularly in assessing their effectiveness at the catchment-scale. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of ECMWF's seasonal forecasts (including precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration) for the period of 2011 to 2020. We focused on 12 multi-purpose reservoir catchments and compared the forecasts to climatology data. Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score method is adopted to assess the forecast skill, and the linear scaling method was applied to evaluate its impact. The results showed that while the seasonal meteorological forecasts have similar skill to climatology for one month ahead, the skill decreased significantly as the forecast lead time increased. Compared to the climatology, better results were obtained in the Wet season than the Dry season. In particular, during the Wet seasons of the dry years (2015, 2017), the seasonal meteorological forecasts showed the highest skill for all lead times.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.59-66
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• 2016

The 2011 debris flow in Mt. Umyeonsan in Seoul, South Korea caused significant damages to the surrounding urban area, unlike other similar incidents reported to have occurred in the past in the country's mountainous regions. Accordingly, landslides and debris flows cause damage in various surroundings, regardless of mountainous area and urban area, at a great speed and with enormous impact. Hence, many researchers attempted to forecast the extent of impact of debris flows to help minimize the damage. The most fundamental part in forecasting the impact extent of debris flow is to understand the debris flow behavior and sedimentation mechanism in complex three-dimensional topography. To understand sedimentation mechanism, in particular, it is necessary to calculate the amount of energy and erosion according to debris flow behavior. The previously developed debris flow models, however, are limited in their ability to calculate the erosion amount of debris flow. This study calculated the extent of damage caused by a massive debris flow that occurred in 2011 in Seoul's urban area adjacent to Mt. Umyeonsan by using DEM, created from aerial photography and airborne LiDAR data, for both before and after the damage; and developed and compared a debris flow behavioral analysis model that can assess the amount of erosion based on energy theory. In addition, simulations using the existing debris flow model (RWM, Debris 2D) and a comprehensive comparison of debris flow-stricken areas were performed in the same study area.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.289-296
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• 2022

The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-correlation between crude oil prices and Dry Bulk Freight rates. Eco-friendly shipping fuels has being actively developed to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon neutrality will take longer than anticipated in terms of the present development process. Because of OVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crude oil price fluctuation has been exacerbated. So we must examine the impact on Dry Bulk Freight rates the oil prices have had, because oil prices play a major role in shipping fuels. By using the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model with monthly data of crude oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI) and Dry Bulk Freight rates (BDI, BCI and (BP I) 2008.10~2022.02, the empirical analysis documents that the oil prices have an impact on Dry bulk Freight rates. From the analysis of the forecast error variance decomposition, WTI has the largest explanatory relationship with the BDI and Dubai ranks seoond, Brent ranks third. In conclusion, WTI and Dubai have the largest impact on the BDI, while there are some differences according to the ship-type.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.294-303
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• 2015

This paper describes a method that can be used for estimating future carbon emissions and environmental effects. To forecast future land use and transportation changes under various low carbon policies, a DELTA and OmniTRANS combination (a land use-transport integrated model) was applied. Appropriate emission estimation methods and dispersion models were selected and applied in the method. It was designed that the estimated emissions from land use and transportation activity as well as the estimated concentrations of air pollutants and comprehensive air quality index (CAI) are presented on a GIS-based map. The prototype was developed for the city of Suwon and the outcome examples were presented in this paper; it demonstrates what kinds of analysis results are presented in this method. It is expected that the developed method will be very useful for decision makers who want to know the effect of environmental policies in cities.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.310-317
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• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

The Bird strike to small aircraft has not been an issue because of it's low speed and usage as a private aircraft. So, the compliance of the bird strike regulation is limited to large fixed-wing aircraft such as the commuter category in FAR Part 23 and the civil aircraft in FAR Part 25, generally. However, the forecast of dramatic increasing of VLJ(Very Light Jet) and (light time of general aviation due to Air-taxi for the point to point transportation, would rise up the need of bird strike regulations and a safety enhancement in normal and utility categorized aircraft. In this study, the safety enhancement concept using a crushable foam for the bird strike to small aircraft wing leading edge, and the evaluation about the safety of the bird strike to small aircraft are proposed using the explicit finite element analysis.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.753-762
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• 2013

This paper forecast that, if the EMC test market for broadcasting and communication materials and equipment reaches a saturated state, such will give rise to adverse effects such as capture phenomenon, rent seeking phenomenon, and stiff test price competition; this in turn will eventually wield a negative impact on our society. Thus, to determine the saturation level of EMC test markets, the size of test markets and test capabilities of the designated laboratories were surveyed. As a result, the operation rate of equipment in the EMC test markets was revealed to be 78 %, suggesting market saturation. Moreover, the wireless, wire, and SAR equipment operation rates reached 65 %, 3 %, and 10 %, respectively, suggesting market saturation. Thus, maintaining the strictness of testing requires limiting the designation of new test laboratories; in light of practices and implementation of laws, however, the relevant administrative agency has difficulty rejecting applications for the designation of laboratories.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.25-35
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• 2008

The ridership and transit systems are influenced by the expansion of metro-rail in Seoul metropolitan area. However, it has been difficult to measure its precise quantitative influences. Also effective policy implementations have been limited due to the lack of practical evidences. Thus an empirical analysis for an operating metro-rail is essentially required. In this regard, this study examines the impact of the Jungang line on transportation system, whose metro-rail block has been recently started new service. The main interest of this study is to find out the changes of ridership and to forecast the ridership changes by the metro-rail service. The results indicate that the effect on auto users is less than that of bus users. The auto demand is decreased by 33.3% and the bus demand by 66.6%. Additionally, its influence on Gyeonggi-do bus was greater compared with that on the Seoul bus. From questionnaire survey, this results could be confirmed. To sum up, the metro-rail gives less influences on auto users, while it gives greater influences on bus users.