• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.43-51
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• 2018

We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of Asian four countries such as Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and China on housing market returns in Korea. Also, we document the relationship between the EPU index of those four countries and the housing market including macroeconomic indicators in Korea. The EPU index of those four countries has significantly a negative effect on the housing purchase price index, housing lease price index in Korea. The EPU index in Korea and Japan has significantly a negative effect on the CPI. The EPU index in only Japan has significantly a negative effect on the PPI. The EPU index in Hong Kong and Korea has significantly a negative effect but the EPU index in China significantly has a positive effect on the stock price index in construction industry. The EPU index in only Korea has significantly a negative effect the stock price index in banking industry. This study shows the EPU index of the Korea has the negative relationships on the housing market economy rather than other countries by VECM. And this study has an important evidence of the spillover of several macroeconomic indicators in Korea for the EPU index of the Asian four countries.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.27-36
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• 2016

Purpose - Considering the importance of housing needs to real estate market, domestic studies on real estate prices from the perspective of demand are basically based on macro-data, but relatively few are associated with micro-data of urban real estate demand. We try to find a reliable relation of elasticity of demand and commercial housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - In this paper, we have derived housing demand theoretic method and have utilized micro-data of residential family housing survey of downtown area in Kunming City in October, 2015 to estimate income elasticity and price elasticity of housing demand respectively and make a comparative analysis. Results - The results indicate that income elasticity and price elasticity of families with owner-occupied housing are both larger than those of families with rental housing. Income elasticity of housing demand of urban residential families in Kunming is far below the foreign average and eastern coastal cities level, however, the corresponding price elasticity is far higher. Conclusions - We suggest that housing affordability of urban families in western China are constrained by the level of economic development, and the current housing price level has exceeded the economic affordability and psychological expectation of ordinary residents. Furthermore, noticing the great rigidity of housing demand, the expansion space of housing market for improvement and for commodity is limited.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.61-71
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• 2015

Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.42-52
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• 2009

From the beginning of 2000, Korean housing market has experienced cyclical volatility because of the global economic fluctuation such as steady decline in the interest rate and the house price bubble. In response to these state Korean Government announced policies about housing sales system kinds of Sales Unit Price Restraint and Post-Sales System to stabilize housing market. But such policies has brought unprecedented arguments both for and against, most of whom still seem to stick to self-centered judgement ahead of impact on housing market. In an integrated point of view, applying the system dynamics modeling, the paper aims at proposing basic Korean housing market dynamics models based on basis principles of housing market determined by supply and demand. And then, after research policies about housing sales system, analyze Impact on Korean Housing Market by change of Sales Systems applying policies to basic Korean housing market dynamics models.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.75-82
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• 2007

Under the premise that the housing market is not fixed, but changes organically according to social and systematic environment, it has important meaning as the object of this study to identify the recent housing market's movement by deducing the changed characteristics of the factors to compose the recent new houses. By using the following methodology, this study analyzed the characteristics and mutual relations of the economical and house-composing factors, categorized the investigation object into sub-markets, and executed comparative analysis. First, based on the leading studies analyzing the factors of house price determination and the assessment indicators of 'Green Building Certification Program', the composing factors are deduced. Second, the factors are categorized as economic, housing complex planning and geographical condition. Third, to identify the influence of housing environmental factors on economic factors, the correlation between the former and the latter, and the difference between economic factors are analyzed. Fourth, by segmenting and categorizing the housing market into time and location subgroups, the chronicle trend and the geographical characteristics are analyzed.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.5-11
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• 2018

Purpose - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the US and China and housing distribution economy in Korea using EPU indexes of two countries and the economic indicators in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the data such as the Korean housing price stability index (HPSI), housing purchase price index (HPPI), housing lease price index (HLPI), banking stock index (BSI), and consumer price index (CPI) with EPU indexes from January 1999 to December 2017. As an empirical methodology, we select the vector error correction model (VECM) due to the existence of cointegration. Result - As results of the impulse response function, the impact of the US EPU index has initially a negative response on the Korean HPSI, HPPI, and HLPI referring the housing distribution market including the economic variables, BSI, and CPI. Likewise, the impact of index in China has initially a negative response on economic indicators except the BSI in Korea. Conclusions - This study shows that the EPU index of the US has significantly negative relationships on all economic indicators in Korea. In this study, we reveal EPU of the US and China has dynamic impact on housing distribution economy returns in Korea.

• Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.263-268
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• 2002

This paper aimes to analyse the housing market of Ulsan, that changed for Metroplolitan city in 1997. For the housing policy we need sufficient informations on the housing market appeared during the last five years. As a result, we can describe its housing market in a uniform way: Ulsan, compared with other cities, doesn't show varieties in households, housing type, housing conditions etc.. Concerning the housing preference, the results of our survey also show the uniformity. And the price of apartment in Ulsan moves relatively slowly to other cities.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.717-729
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• 2000

Housing prices in the Korean housing market dropped at an unprecedented magnitude in 1998 after the economic crisis. With the support of housing policies to boost depressed housing markets, house prices managed to bounce back after the mid-1999. During the period of housing price decline and of its recovery, the degrees of house price changes were not even across the country. The cities could be classified into four groups regarding the differential rates of house price changes. The cities which had higher rates of decrease also had higher rates of increase. On the other hand, some other cities continuously experienced a price fall during the recovery period although the rate of housing price changes were relatively low after the economic crisis. Throught the processes of administering housing market depression due to the crisis of the economy, the cities which could fully redeem the level of house prices in housing markets between the Seoul Metropolitan area and the other parts of the country has been widened.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.4D
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• pp.523-531
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• 2008

This study tried to find differences between housing lotting prices and sale prices owing to new multi-family housing price regulation. As the results of this study, they are as follows; First, this study shows housing market in Busan has a preferences of new housing which has a new housing form differing from the existing housing form. For example, the mixed-use apartment with higher stories shows steeper incline than the apartments with the existing forms. Second, the new housing prices are affected by the information that affect the price of the old existing housing. They are rates of green area of an apartment complex, the number of household, accessibility to downtown Busan and etc.. They are also confirmed factors that affect a rise of used-housing price in other studies. Third, brand value of apartments affects new housing prices. For example, if the major construction companies build the new apartment, it shows a rising trend than any other housing. Therefore, the local construction companies are expected to be put on a disadvantage places than major construction companies. Fourth, the lotting prices are the most important cause that lead to rise the new housing prices. Accordingly, the present lotting prices are expected that upward tendency the purchasing prices of the new housing will not continue, because the lotting prices have risen since the government removed lotting price regulations and exceeded the level of used-housing prices. And it denote that importance of housing sub-market which indicates rates of old existing housing market rising, frist preference Gu, second preference Gu, rate of multi-family housing.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.79-108
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• 2022

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence that sentiment shock has a statistically significant relationship with Korea's aggregate housing price changes. Specifically, the key findings show that an increase in sentiment shock predicts a rise in the aggregate housing price and a drop in its volatility at the national level. For the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), this study also suggests that sentiment shock is positively associated with one-month-ahead aggregate housing price changes, whereas an increase in sentiment volatility tends to increase housing price volatility as well. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasting exercises conducted here reveal that the prediction model endowed with sentiment shock and sentiment volatility outperforms other competing prediction models.