• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.69-88
• /
• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.97-107
• /
• 2015

An analytical model was developed to estimate the viscous and squeeze-film damping ratios of heat exchanger tubes subjected to a two-phase cross-flow. Damping information is required to analyze the flow-induced vibration problem for heat exchange tubes. In heat exchange tubes, the most important energy dissipation mechanisms are related to the dynamic interaction between structures such as the tube and support and the liquid. The present model was formulated considering the added mass coefficient, based on an approximate model by Sim (1997). An approximate analytical method was developed to estimate the hydrodynamic forces acting on an oscillating inner cylinder with a concentric annulus. The forces, including the damping force, were calculated using two models developed for relatively high and low oscillatory Reynolds numbers, respectively. The equivalent diameters for the tube bundles and tube support, and the penetration depth, are important parameters to calculate the viscous damping force acting on tube bundles and the squeeze-film damping forces on the tube support, respectively. To calculate the void fraction of a two-phase flow, a homogeneous model was used. To verify the present model, the analytical results were compared to the results given by existing theories. It was found that the present model was applicable to estimate the viscous damping ratio and squeeze-film damping ratio.

• Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
• /
• v.4 no.4
• /
• pp.378-387
• /
• 1994

To improve the properties of $PbTiO_3$ thin films successfully grown by thermal diffusion of 3 component layers of $Ti0_2/Pb/TiO_2(900{\AA}/900{\AA}/900{\AA})$ in preceding research, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 multilayer structures $(TiO_2/Pb/.../Tio_2)$ with thinner component layer of $200~300 {\AA}$ thick were deposited on Si substrate by RF sputtering, which were followed by RTA to form $PbTiO_3$ thin films. As a result, $PbTiO_3$ single phase was formed above $500^{\circ}C$. When the thickness of component layer reduced and the number of component layers increased, suppression of Pb-silicate and voids formation resulted in relatively sharp interfaces and the film composition became more homogeneous. Relative dielectric constants in MIM structure were independent of the annealing condition, but they increased with increasing thickness of the $PbTiO_3$ thin films. The maximum breakdown field in MIS structure reached 150kV/cm.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.5 no.2
• /
• pp.109-120
• /
• 1985

This thesis is a study on multiple close range photogrammetry, and the purpose of this study is to develop the most accurate adjustment method of three dimensional object coordinates. This was achieved by comparing the standard errors of actual data to the computed values from 2 photos and multiple photos. The conventional methods for multiple photos have been analyzed by using geometric model formation. But in this study, the equation of collinearity condition which has been applied to aerial photogrammetry was derived to be a basic principle of close range photogrammetry, and the algorithm for analyzing multiple photos was developed using simultaneous bundle adjustment. The method used in this study, showed more homogeneous accuracy in coordinate and more consistent variance of error than those of conventional methods. It was found that the cases using 3, 4, and 5 photos were more accurate than using 2 photos; the accuracies were improved to 15%, 35%, and 50%, for each case. Thus this study is expected to be useful in measuring the geometry of historic monuments and other structures requiring high accuracy. Also the combined case of multiple photos is considered to be effective for the precise analysis of the objects which are difficult to measure for obstacles.

• Applied Microscopy
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.35-55
• /
• 1993

cis-Dichlorodiammineplatinum (II) (cis-Platin), a metallic compound, has widely been used as an effective anticancer chemotherapeutic agent. The precise mechanism of action of this agent is still unknown, but it is postulated that cis-Platin may act on the cancer cell like bifunctional alkylating agents. Although this agent is very beneficial to the patients with cervical cancer, germinoma of testis, neuroblastoma and others, it may also damage to the normal cell so that many side effects; severe hemorrhagic enterocolitis, bone marrow depression, renal damage and liver damage will develope. This experiment has been undertaken to pursue the cytotoxic effects of the cis-Platin on the ultrastructures of the interalveolar septum in the mouse lung. A total of 55 healthy male mice of ICR strain were used as experimental animals and divided into 5 mice of normal control group and 50 mice of cis-Platin treated group. The mice of cis-Platin treated group were sacrificed by carotid exsanguination at 6, 12, 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days after intraperitoneal injection of 6.0 mg of cis-Platin ($Abiplatin^R$ Abic Co. Ltd.) per kg of mouse body weight. The specimen obtained from the lower lobe of left lung were sliced into $1mm^3$ and prefixed with 2% glutaraldehyde -2.5% paraformaldehyde solution prepared with Millonig's phosphatae buffer solution (pH 7.4) at $4^{\circ}C$ for 3-4 hours. After postfixation with 1% osmium tetroxide solution all specimens were embedded in Epon 812. Ultrathin sections about $600-800{\AA}$ in thickness were stained with uranyl acetate and lead citrate and observed with Hitachi-600 electron microscope. The results obtained were as follows: 1. Local swellings with increase of electron density and number of pinocytic vesicles in the cytoplasms of the type I pneumocyte and endothelial cell of the blood air barrier in interalveolar septum of cis-platin treated mice were observed. 2. Cisternae of rough endoplasmic reticulum were dilated and sacculated in association with detachment of membrane bound ribosomes of the type II pneumocyte in interalveolar septum of cis-Platin treated mice. 3. Swollon mitochondria with uneven electron density of their matrix were observed in the type II pneumocyte of interalveolar septum in the cis-Platin treated mice. 4. The lamellae of lammelar bodies in type II pneumocyte of interalveolar septum in cis-Platin treated mice were devoided or transformed into homogeneous electron dense material. It is consequently suggested that cis-Platin would induce the cellular edema of type I pneumocyte and endothelial cell, and degenerative changes of cytoplasmic organelles of the type II pneumocyte in the interalveolar septum of the mouse lung.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
• /
• v.34 no.4
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2006

Anatomy of Quercus variabilis charcoal was investigated by scanning electron microscopy. Charcoal was prepared in an electric furnace under nitrogen gas atmosphere at $400^{\circ}C$, $600^{\circ}C$, $800^{\circ}C$, and $1000^{\circ}C$ for 10 min. The structure of charcoal was significantly affected by charring temperature. In cross section, charcoal prepared at $400^{\circ}C$ exhibited a smooth clean surface. As the charring temperature increased, the surface became more rough and increasingly disrupted. The cell walls appeared homogeneous and glass-like. Ray parenchyma cells showed very little separation from each other in radial section at $400^{\circ}C$. At $600^{\circ}C$ and above there is an apparent disintegration of the middle lamella, resulting in a separation of the ray cells. The $2{\sim}4{\mu}m$ wart-like protuberances were observed on the surfaces of the parenchyma cells. These structures were seen in charcoal prepared at all temperatures. Distinctive features can be seen in multiseriate rays as large crack and split. Rhomboidal crystals in crystalliferous cells had a smooth surface at $400^{\circ}C$ and $600^{\circ}C$, but the crystals had a sponge like appearance at $800^{\circ}C$ and $1000^{\circ}C$.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.255-263
• /
• 2017

This paper presents a beam element capable of conducting material and geometric nonlinear analysis for applications requiring the ultimate behavioral analysis of structures with composite cross-sections. The element formulation is based on co-rotational kinematics to simulate geometrically nonlinear behaviors, and it uses the fiber section method to calculate the stiffness and internal forces of the element. The proposed element was implemented using an in-house numerical program in which an arc-length method was adopted to trace severe nonlinear responses(such as snap-through or snapback), as well as ductile behavior after the peak load. To verify the proposed method of element formulation and the accuracy of the program that was used to employ the element, several numerical studies were conducted and the results from these numerical models were compared with those of three-dimensional continuum models and previous studies, to demonstrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the element. Additionally, by evaluating an example case of a frame structure with a composite member, the effects of differences between composite material properties such as the elastic modulus ratio and strength ratio were analyzed. It was found that increasing the elastic modulus of the external layer of a composite cross-section caused quasi-brittle behavior, while similar responses of the composite structure to those of homogeneous and linear materials were shown to increase the yield strength of the external layer.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.13-22
• /
• 2003

TSP (Tunnel Seismic Profiling) survey is a technique for imaging and characterizing geological structures ahead of a tunnel face. The seismic modeling algorithm and the synthetic data could be helpful for TSP surveys. However, there is few algorithm to describe the propagation of the elastic waves around the tunnel. In this study, existing 2-dimensional seismic modeling algorithm using finite element method was modified to make a suitable algorithm for TSP modeling. Using this algorithm, TSP modeling was practiced in some models. And the synthetic data was analyzed to examine the propagation characteristics of the elastic waves. First of all, the modeling for the homogeneous tunnel model was practiced to examine the propagation characteristics of the direct waves in the vicinity of the tunnel. And the algorithm was applied to some models having reflector which is perpendicular or parallel to the excavation direction. From these, the propagation characteristics of the reflected waves were examined. Furthermore, two source-receiver arrays were used in respective models to investigate the properties of the two arrays. These modeling algorithm and synthetic data could be helpful in interpreting TSP survey data, developing inversion algorithm and designing new source-receiver arrays.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.299-308
• /
• 2009

We manufactured PVA-derived hydrogels using a foam generation technique that has been widely used to prepare colloidal gas aphrons(CGA). These gels were differentiated to the conventional gels such as for medical or pharmaceutical applications, which have tiny pores and some crystalline structure. Rather these should be used in de-pollution devices or adhesion of cells or biomolecules. The crosslinkers used in this work were amino acid, organic acid, sugars and lipids(vitamins). The structures of the gels were observed in a scanned electron microscope. Amino acids gels showed remarkably higher swelling ratios probably because their typical functional groups help constructing a highly crosslinked network along with hydrogen bonds. Boric acid and starch would catalyze dehydration while structuring to result in much lower water content and accordingly high gel content, leading to less elastic, hard gels. Bulky materials such as ascorbic acid or starch produced, in general, large pores in the matrices and also nicotinamide, having large hydrophobic patches was likely to enlarge pore size of its gels as well since the hydrophobicity would expel water molecules, thus leading to reduced swelling. Hydrophilicity(or hydrophobicity), functional groups which are involved in the reaction or physical linkage, and bulkiness of crosslinkers were found to be more critical to gel's cross linking structure and its density than molecular weights that seemed to be closely related to pore sizes. Microscopic observation revealed that pores were more or less homogeneous and their average sizes were $20{\mu}m$ for methionine, $10-15{\mu}m$ for citric acid, $50-70{\mu}m$ for L-ascorbic acid, $30-40{\mu}m$ for nicotinamide, and $70-80{\mu}m$ for starch. Also a sensory test showed that amino acid and glucose gels were more elastic meanwhile acid and nicotinamide gels turned out to be brittle or non-elastic at their high concentrations. The elasticity of a gel was reasonably correlated with its water content or swelling ratio. In addition, the PVA gel including 20% ascorbic acid showed fair ability of cell adherence as 0.257mg/g-hydrogel and completely degraded phenanthrene(10 mM) in 240 h.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
• /
• v.37 no.6
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2000

In order to achieve stiction-free polysilicon surfaces, we have suggested a new class of chemical coating precursors and confirmed their excellent characteristics. The strategy is to adopt dialkyldichlorosilanes (DDS, $R2SiCl_2$) instead of monoalkyltrichlorosilanes (MTS, $RSiCl_3$) such as octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS) or 1H,1H2H,2H-perfluorodecyltrichlorosilane (FDTS). Dichlorodimethylsilane (DDMS, $(CH_3)2SiCl_2$) in this study is commercially available DDS with two short chains. DDMS in aprotic media spontaneously deposits on the hydrophilic polysilicon surface, which is completely changed to hydrophobic one. When polysilicon surface is exposed to DDMS solution at room temperature, anti-stiction property and hydrophobicity are clearly comparable to FDTS. DDMS is even superior to MTS in reliability and easy handling, which provides high yield. Since interactions among precursor molecules are reduced, conglomeration both in homogeneous solution and on surface can be effectively avoided. Even the cantilevers of 3 mm in length can be protected successfully from the stiction and the final quality of the modified surfaces is much less dependent on temperature. And no difference was found between the processes in ambient environment and in dry box. In addition, DDMS has advantages of remarkably reduced process time and low cost.