• 제목/요약/키워드: high-dimensional time series

검색결과 71건 처리시간 0.021초

Comparison of the Wind Speed from an Atmospheric Pressure Map (Na Wind) and Satellite Scatterometer­observed Wind Speed (NSCAT) over the East (Japan) Sea

  • Park, Kyung-Ae;Kim, Kyung-Ryul;Kim, Kuh;Chung, Jong-Yul;Conillor, Peter-C.
    • Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2003
  • Major differences between wind speeds from atmospheric pressure maps (Na wind) and near­surface wind speeds derived from satellite scatterometer (NSCAT) observations over the East (Japan) Sea have been examined. The root­mean­square errors of Na wind and NSCAT wind speeds collocated with Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) buoy winds are about $3.84\;ms^{-1}\;and\;1.53\;ms^{-1}$, respectively. Time series of NSCAT wind speeds showed a high coherency of 0.92 with the real buoy measurements and contained higher spectral energy at low frequencies (>3 days) than the Na wind. The magnitudes of monthly Na winds are lower than NSCAT winds by up to 45%, particularly in September 1996. The spatial structures between the two are mostly coherent on basin­wide large scales; however, significant differences and energy loss are found on a spatial scale of less than 100 km. This was evidenced by the temporal EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) of the two wind speed data sets and by their two­dimensional spectra. Since the Na wind was based on the atmospheric pressures on the weather map, it overlooked small­scale features of less than 100 km. The center of the cold­air outbreak through Vladivostok, expressed by the Na wind in January 1997, was shifted towards the North Korean coast when compared with that of the NSCAT wind, whereas NSCAT winds revealed its temporal evolution as well as spatial distribution.

Performance of steel beams at elevated temperatures under the effect of axial restraints

  • Liu, T.C.H.;Davies, J.M.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제1권4호
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    • pp.427-440
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    • 2001
  • The growing use of unprotected or partially protected steelwork in buildings has caused a lively debate regarding the safety of this form of construction. A good deal of recent research has indicated that steel members have a substantial inherent ability to resist fire so that additional fire protection can be either reduced or eliminated completely. A performance based philosophy also extends the study into the effect of structural continuity and the performance of the whole structural totality. As part of the structural system, thermal expansion during the heating phase or contraction during the cooling phase in most beams is likely to be restrained by adjacent parts of the whole system or sub-frame assembly due to compartmentation. This has not been properly addressed before. This paper describes an experimental programme in which unprotected steel beams were tested under load while it is restrained between two columns and additional horizontal restraints with particular concern on the effect of catenary action in the beams when subjected to large deflection at very high temperature. This paper also presents a three-dimensional mathematical modelling, based on the finite element method, of the series of fire tests on the part-frame. The complete analysis starts with an evaluation of temperature distribution in the structure at various time levels. It is followed by a detail 3-D finite element analysis on its structural response as a result of the changing temperature distribution. The principal part of the analysis makes use of an existing finite element package FEAST. The effect of columns being fire-protected and the beam being axially restrained has been modelled adequately in terms of their thermal and structural responses. The consequence of the beam being restrained is that the axial force in the restrained beam starts as a compression, which increases gradually up to a point when the material has deteriorated to such a level that the beam deflects excessively. The axial compression force drops rapidly and changes into a tension force leading to a catenary action, which slows down the beam deflection from running away. Design engineers will be benefited with the consideration of the catenary action.

Statistical Study and Prediction of Variability of Erythemal Ultraviolet Irradiance Solar Values in Valencia, Spain

  • Gurrea, Gonzalo;Blanca-Gimenez, Vicente;Perez, Vicente;Serrano, Maria-Antonia;Moreno, Juan-Carlos
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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    • 제54권4호
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    • pp.599-610
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    • 2018
  • The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIV and UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index ($k_t$) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIVon cloud-free days ($k_t$ higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIVand GIV the ${\chi}^2$ statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities. A connection between high $k_t$ (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bidimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.

희박 벡터 자기 회귀 모형의 로버스트 추정 (Robust estimation of sparse vector autoregressive models)

  • 김동영;백창룡
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제35권5호
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    • pp.631-644
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    • 2022
  • 본 논문은 고차원 시계열 자료에 이상점이 존재하는 경우 희박벡터자기회귀모형(sparse VAR; sVAR)의 모수를 강건하게 추정하는 방법에 대해서 연구하였다. 먼저 Xu 등 (2008)이 독립인 자료에서 밝혔듯이 adaptive lasso 방법이 sVAR 모형에서도 어느 정도의 강건함을 가짐을 모의 실험을 통해 알 수 있었다. 하지만, 이상점의 개수가 증가하거나 이상점의 영향력이 커지는 경우 효율성이 현저히 저하되는 현상도 관찰할 수 있었다. 따라서 이를 개선하기 위해서 최소절대편차(least absolute deviation; LAD)와 Huber 함수를 기반으로 벌점화 시키는 adaptive lasso를 이용하여 sVAR 모형을 추정하는 방법을 본 논문에서는 제안하고 그 성능을 검토하였다. 모의 실험을 통해 제안한 로버스트 추정 방법이 이상점이 존재하는 경우에 모수 추정을 더 정확하게 하고 예측 성능도 뛰어남을 확인했다. 또한 해당 방법론들을 전력사용량 데이터에 적용한 결과 이상점으로 의심되는 시점들이 존재하였고, 이를 고려하여 강건하게 추정하는 제안한 방법론이 더 좋은 예측 성능을 보임을 확인할 수 있었다.

Collapse failure mechanism of subway station under mainshock-aftershocks in the soft area

  • Zhen-Dong Cui;Wen-Xiang Yan;Su-Yang Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제36권3호
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2024
  • Seismic records are composed of mainshock and a series of aftershocks which often result in the incremental damage to underground structures and bring great challenges to the rescue of post-disaster and the repair of post-earthquake. In this paper, the repetition method was used to construct the mainshock-aftershocks sequence which was used as the input ground motion for the analysis of dynamic time history. Based on the Daikai station, the two-dimensional finite element model of soil-station was established to explore the failure process of station under different seismic precautionary intensities, and the concept of incremental damage of station was introduced to quantitatively analyze the damage condition of structure under the action of mainshock and two aftershocks. An arc rubber bearing was proposed for the shock absorption. With the arc rubber bearing, the mode of the traditional column end connection was changed from "fixed connection" to "hinged joint", and the ductility of the structure was significantly improved. The results show that the damage condition of the subway station is closely related to the magnitude of the mainshock. When the magnitude of the mainshock is low, the incremental damage to the structure caused by the subsequent aftershocks is little. When the magnitude of the mainshock is high, the subsequent aftershocks will cause serious incremental damage to the structure, and may even lead to the collapse of the station. The arc rubber bearing can reduce the damage to the station. The results can offer a reference for the seismic design of subway stations under the action of mainshock-aftershocks.

수정된 등가선형해석기법의 정확성 평가 (Evaluation of Accuracy of Modified Equivalent Linear Method)

  • 정창균;곽동엽;박두희;김광균
    • 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2010
  • 1차원 등가선형 지반응답해석은 지반에 의한 지진동의 증폭현상을 모사하는데 널리 사용되고 있다. 등가선형해석은 적은 수의 입력변수를 필요로하므로 사용하기 편리하며 해석 소요시간이 짧다는 장점을 가지고 있는 반면, 시간에 따라서 변화하는 지반의 비선형 거동을 모사할 수 없으며 일정한 전단탄성계수와 감쇠비를 해석 내내 적용하는 선형해석이라는 단점을 가지고 있다. 이와 같은 등가선형해석의 단점을 보완하기 위하여 진동 주파수와 변형률과의 관계를 모사하는 다양한 형태의 수정된 등가선형해석기법들이 개발되었다. 수정된 기법들은 전단변형률 푸리에 스펙트럼을 사용한다는 점에서는 동일하지만, 이로부터 변형률의 주파수 의존도를 정의하는 과정에서는 차이를 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 두 가지 수정된 등가선형해석기법들의 정확성을 평가하기 위하여 국내에서 조사된 두 개의 토층에서 일련의 비선형, 등가선형, 수정된 등가선형 지반응답해석을 수행하였다. 해석 결과, 수정된 등가선형해석기법들은 고주파수 요소를 과대 예측할 수 있으며, 특히 고주파수 요소가 풍부한 인공지진파를 입력 지진파로 사용하였을 경우 비현실적인 응답이 계산될 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

전이학습과 딥러닝 네트워크를 활용한 고해상도 위성영상의 변화탐지 (Change Detection for High-resolution Satellite Images Using Transfer Learning and Deep Learning Network)

  • 송아람;최재완;김용일
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2019
  • 운용 가능한 위성의 수가 증가하고 기술이 진보함에 따라 영상정보의 성과물이 다양해지고 많은 양의 자료가 축적되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기구축된 영상정보를 활용하여 부족한 훈련자료의 문제를 극복하고 딥러닝(deep learning) 기법의 장점을 활용하고자 전이학습과 변화탐지 네트워크를 활용한 고해상도 위성영상의 변화탐지를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 활용한 딥러닝 네트워크는 공간 및 분광 정보를 추출하는 합성곱 레이어(convolutional layer)와 시계열 정보를 분석하는 합성곱 장단기 메모리 레이어(convolutional long short term memory layer)로 구성되었으며, 고해상도 다중분광 영상에 최적화된 정보를 추출하기 위하여 커널(kernel)의 차원에 따른 정확도를 비교하였다. 또한, 학습된 커널 정보를 활용하기 위하여 변화탐지 네트워크의 초기 합성곱 레이어를 고해상도 항공영상인 ISPRS (International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing) 데이터셋에서 추출된 40,000개의 패치로 학습된 값으로 초기화하였다. 다시기 KOMPSAT-3A (KOrean Multi-Purpose SATllite-3A) 영상에 대한 실험 결과, 전이학습과 딥러닝 네트워크를 활용할 경우 기복 변위 및 그림자 등으로 인한 변화에 덜 민감하게 반응하며 분류 항목이 달라진 지역의 변화를 보다 효과적으로 추출할 수 있었으며, 2차원 커널보다 3차원 커널을 사용할 때 변화탐지의 정확도가 높았다. 3차원 커널은 공간 및 분광정보를 모두 고려하여 특징 맵(feature map)을 추출하기 때문에 고해상도 영상의 분류뿐만 아니라 변화탐지에도 효과적인 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서는 고해상도 위성영상의 변화탐지를 위한 전이학습과 딥러닝 기법의 활용 가능성을 제시하였으며, 추후 훈련된 변화탐지 네트워크를 새롭게 취득된 영상에 적용하는 연구를 수행하여 제안기법의 활용범위를 확장할 예정이다.

3D-CNN에서 동적 손 제스처의 시공간적 특징이 학습 정확성에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Spatio-temporal Features of Dynamic Hand Gestures on Learning Accuracy in 3D-CNN)

  • 정영지
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 2023
  • 3D-CNN은 시계열 데이터 학습을 위한 딥 러닝 기법 중 하나이다. 이러한 3차원 학습은 많은 매개변수를 생성할 수 있으므로 고성능 기계학습이 필요하거나 학습 속도에 커다란 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 손의 동적인 제스처 동작을 시공간적으로 학습할 때, 3D-CNN 모델의 구조적 변화 없이 입력 영상 데이터의 시공간적 변화에 따른 학습 정확성을 분석함으로써, 3D-CNN을 이용한 동적 제스처 학습의 효율성을 높이기 위한 입력 영상 데이터의 최적 조건을 찾고자 한다. 첫 번째로 동적 손 제스처 영상 데이터에서 동적 이미지 프레임의 학습구간을 설정함으로써 제스처 동작간 시간 비율을 조정한다. 둘째로는 클래스간 2차원 교차 상관 분석을 통해 영상 데이터의 이미지 프레임간 유사도를 측정하여 정규화 함으로써 프레임간 평균값을 얻고 학습 정확성을 분석한다. 이러한 분석을 통하여, 동적 손 제스처의 3D-CNN 딥 러닝을 위한 입력 영상 데이터를 효과적으로 선택하는 두 가지 방법을 제안한다. 실험 결과는 영상 데이터 프레임의 학습구간과 클래스간 이미지 프레임간 유사도가 학습 모델의 정확성에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 보여준다.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

수질관리 지원을 위한 GIS기반의 EFDC 모델 후처리 시스템 개발 연구 (A Study on Development of a GIS based Post-processing System of the EFDC Model for Supporting Water Quality Management)

  • 이건휘;김계현;박용길;이성주
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2014
  • 영산강 하구역은 하구둑에 의해 하천의 수체가 정체되어 수질문제가 심각한 지역이다. 이를 관리하기 위해 수질변화의 예측은 필수적이며, 주로 EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) 모델이 활용된다. EFDC 모델의 모의 결과로는 Binary 형식의 대용량 결과파일이 생성되며, 모의 결과의 공간적인 분포를 확인하기 위해서는 이미지 형태로 변환하는 후처리과정이 필요하다. 이를 위한 대표적인 후처리기로는 EFDC_Explorer가 있다. 그러나 EFDC_Explorer에서 제공되는 이미지 파일은 단순한 캡처 형식의 자료로 다른 주제도와의 중첩 기능이 지원되지 않는다. 이는 다양한 GIS자료와의 연계 분석이나 고차원적인 분석에서 제약이 될 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 GIS에서 활용을 고려한 EFDC 모델 모의결과 후처리 시스템을 개발하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 주요 입력파일 수정 모듈과 Binary 형식의 결과 자료를 ASCII 형식으로 변환하는 모듈, GIS기반의 환경에서 활용이 가능한 레이어 형식으로 재구성하는 모듈을 개발하였으며, 재구성된 모델결과를 효율적으로 가시화할 수 있는 모듈을 개발하였다. 개발된 시스템을 통해 생성되는 결과 레이어는 다양한 주제도간의 중첩 분석이나 다양한 GIS기반의 환경에서 연계분석이 가능하여, 최종적으로 수질관리를 지원하는 자료로 활용될 수 있다.