Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.
This paper attempts to analyze the early retirement in the OECD countries and discuss implication of that in the old age policy in Korea. The increase of the early retirement in the almost all OECD countries is a common fact. Especially the rate of early retirement rapidly increased in the 1980s, mostly reflecting the high rate of unemployment and states' policies to reduce it. However, it varies across countries: the unemployment compensation pathway in France, the mixture of social assistance and private insurance in England, VUT in Netherland, the privatization of the early retirement in the U. S., and partial retirement and labor market policy in Sweden. The early retirement in the advanced countries contributes to de-institutionalization and de-standardization in life course model. It resulted in the erosion of the ordinary conception that the retirement was the beginning of the old age. And the last phase of life course became blurred. With respect to the problem of the early retirement, there is a big difference between Korea and the OECD countries. Above all, the retirement age is 55 years in many companies and the public pension is not universalized in Korea. Accordingly the policy for income security of the old age in Korea should be connected with social security policy such as the gradual extension of the retirement age and the expansion of the public pension and labor market policy such as job training for the old age, transformation of the seniority wage system etc.
This study examines the conditions and causes of income inequality and seeks assignments for mitigating income inequality. An analysis of the conditions and causes of income inequality is summarized as follows. First, income inequality, which rapidly increased after the economic crisis, increased and reduced repeatedly during 1999-2004, and remained a level in 2005 as high as that of the year directly after the economic crisis. Second, an analysis of the causes of income inequality by utilizing the long-term data(1985-2004) shows that unemployment rate, nonstandard employment rate, and the rising rate of land prices positively affect income inequality. Third, an analysis of the causes of income inequality by utilizing the data before and after the economic crisis(1995-2004) demonstrates that unemployment rate, nonstandard employment rate, and the workers' income ratio between large enterprises and small enterprises positively affect income inequality. Fourth, the rising rate of land prices which significantly affects income inequality in the data of 1985-2004 does not affect income equality in the data of 1995-2004, and the workers' income ratio between large enterprises and small enterprises which does not affect income inequality in the data of 1985-2004 significantly affect income equality in the data of 1995-2004. These results suggest several implications for mitigating income inequality. First, alternative plans to reduce unemployment rate must be prepared. Second, policies to reduce nonstandard employment rate should be established. Third, programs to stabilize or lower the land prices must be deliberated. Fourth, a master-plan to support small to medium enterprises must be carried out in order to reduce the wage differentials between large enterprises and small to medium enterprises.
Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
/
v.12
no.2
/
pp.89-99
/
1986
The study attempts to estimate and evaluate the rates of return on graduate degree holders who major in science and engineering. The model of this study adopts the rate of return method considering unemployment as well as mortality rate. The data are collected by questionnaires and interviews. The results show that the social rate of return(SROR) of bachelors is lower than the rate of return on investment in physical capital which is assumed as a decision criterion of public investment in Korea, but the SROR of Ph.D. holders is balanced. The results also show that the private rates of return (PROR) of all the levels in postgraduate science and engineering education are higher than the private discount rate which is a decision criterion of private investment in Korea. It also indicates that the PROR on investment in graduate education is not likely higher than the SROR because an individual bears high share of the educational costs.
International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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v.9
no.3
/
pp.174-180
/
2021
The necessity of this study is as follows. A decrease in the number of newborns, an increase in the youth unemployment rate, and a decrease in the employment rate are having a fatal impact on universities. To help increase the employment rate of universities, we intend to utilize Big Data of university public information. Big data refers to the process of collecting and analyzing data, and includes all business processes of finding data, reprocessing information in an easy-to-understand manner, and selling information to people and institutions. Big data technology can be divided into technologies for storing, refining, analyzing, and predicting big data. The purpose of this study is to find the vision and special department of a university with a high employment rate by using big data technology. As a result of the study, big data was collected from 227 universities on www.academyinfo.go.kr site, We selected 130 meaningful universities and selected 25 universities with high employment rates and 25 universities with low employment rates. In conclusion, the university with a high employment rate can first be said to have a student-centered vision and university specialization. The reason is that, for universities with a high employment rate, the vision was to foster talents and specialize, whereas for universities with a low employment rate, regional bases took precedence. Second, universities with a high employment rate have a high interest in specialized departments. This is because, as a result of checking the presence or absence of a characterization plan, universities with a high employment rate were twice as high (21/7). Third, universities with high employment rates promote social needs and characterization. This is because the characteristic departments of universities with high employment rates are in the order of future technology and nursing and health, while universities with low employment rates promoted school-centered specialization in future technology and culture, tourism and art. In summary, universities with high employment rates showed high interest in student-centered vision and development of special departments for social needs.
The social conditions in Koreas until 1950s were similar to the model phenomena of low level eqilibrium trap which was named by Prof. Nelson, with the continuation of high population growth rate and low economic growth rate. To escape from the trap, Korean government adopted two different policies, one is economic development plans and the other is family planning programs. Theses policies were successful in both increasing the national products and decreasing the population growth rate. In 1985 per capita GNP increased to over two thousand dollars, fertility rate reduced to replacement level(2.1) and unemployment rate was stabilized at 4 percent level. From various prospects, we were successfully escaped from the Malthusian trap and many economists, who studied developed countries, belive that population growth has positive effects on technological progress, economies of scale, specialization, individual attitude on work, and economic growth. Therefore we need to reexamine the anti-natalistic population policy of Korea in this situation.
Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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v.9
no.3
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pp.396-409
/
2006
In this paper, first I try to sketch the changing Japanese labor market after 1990s, and then examine the so-called "Job $Caf{\acute{e}}$ program" in detail, which was initiated in 2004 by central and local governments to help young people fine suitable jobs, and finally investigate the possible direction for future labor policy as an important tool for revitalize the local economy. Latter half of 1990s witnessed the high unemployment rate among the population aged twenties in Japan, and the number of 'shinsotsu-mugyo', i.e. population not at work after completing high school or university, NEET (not in employment, education or training) and 'freeters' have grown rapidly. "Job $Caf{\acute{e}}$ program" was initiated as a public response to the increased youth unemployment, aiming at assisting young people's transition from education to career. In the Job $Caf{\acute{e}}$ program, job information service by MHLW, information service for high school students and university students by MEXT, placement service of career internship by METI are integrated into one service, and are provided by local government initiative, therefore named as "one stop service of employment". Although it is highly appreciated for one stop service, the Job cafe program has criticized for paying too much attention to the performance of projects, such as the number of users, and the number of successful job matching. At the final section of the paper, more practical spatial unit for executing effective regional plan on local employment and more empirical research on job search behavior are discussed.
Economic crisis in 2008 has changed South Korean market including furniture related field. Owing to Subprime Mortgage Crisis, new economic order, in other words, New Normal was established. Low growth rate, low interest, high unemployment rate, high risks, regulation strengthening, and all that sort of negative things have became generalized. South Korean economy has developed drastically since the Korean War, however recent economic crisis and Internet and smart phone have leading roles in shaping new consumption market. In a way, furniture market has expanded despite economic recession. Total service for housing is suited to South Korean consumers and shortened Product Life Cycle induces consumers to buy more furniture. In addition, Internet and smart phone allow people to show off their private spaces to unspecified masses. As a result, consumer prefers inexpensive and expendable furniture. It is certain that furniture market makes quantitative growth, but qualitative sides are questionable. Even though the study is focused on the existent circumstances, It will help to find out the proper ways of future furniture market in South Korea.
Since the Economic Crisis at the end of 1997, unemployment rate soared up to the record-high 8.6% (February 1999) and, for youth aged 15~29, it was 14.6% (27.8% for aged 15~19). In spite of economic recovery after the crisis, new participants in labor market at the school-to-work transition have faced with difficulties in finding their first jobs and, even further, the ratio of youth at out-of the labor force but not in school has remained at a higher level. It is important to calibrate the negative effects of nonemployment in the short-run as well as in the long-run, but there has been few study on the school-to-work transition in Korea. This study focus on the nonemployment duration to first job after formal education and comparison of its pattern before and after the crisis. A proportional hazard model, considering job prenaration before graduation (21.4% of the sample), with the semi-parametric baseline hazard is applied to the sample from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey(1998~2000) and its Youth Supplemental survey(2000). Interview of the Survey is conducted, by the Korea Labor Institute, to the same 5,000 household and 13,738 individual sample, guaranteeing nationwide representativeness. The Supplemental Survey consists of 3,302 young individuals aged 15 to 29 at the time of survey and 1,615 of them who are not in school and provide appropriate information is used for the analysis. The empirical results show that there exists negative duration dependence at the first three or for months at the transition period and no duration dependence since a turning point of the baseline hazard rate and that unemployment rate reflecting labor demand conditions has a positive effect on exiting the nonemployment state, which is inconsistent with a theoretical conclusion. Estimation with samples separated by the date of graduation before and after the crisis shows that the effect of unemployment rate on the hazard was negative for the pre-crisis sample but positive for the post-crisis sample.
Recently Korea has stepped into a stage of sluggish development, and the unemployment of young people has become a major issue. Especially in 1998 IMF economic shock was influential in formulating government policy and social economic structure on employment. Restructuring now becomes everyday words and further restructuring is already under way. Owing to the growing economic crisis and resultant unemployment and initial appointment shall be considered conditional. Young job seekers are grappling with mastering their native language and unnecessary experiences. These unnecessary experiences are needless waste of time and money. Educational system in university may be affected by environmental changes in population of students and business crisis. Sometimes the departments made a very low rate of employment may be abolished or merged in university. The government will demand us in the work of reform by doing NCS. The government is now ask to teach, train and employ students on the basis of NCS especially in high-school, job training center, and college and university. NCS has advantages and disadvantages. NCS may reduce waste of time and money to make unnecessary experiences, provide standard course to prepare educational system. It will be a big help to adapt properly and make better employment system. The most negative element of the program is application to humanities and social sciences by the same standard with technology and engineering department in the university. Standardization of each educational course will not react quickly to rapidly changing situations in the future.
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