• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazards analysis

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The Natural hazards and Drought Periodicity during the Medieval Times in Korea Based on the History of Goryeo(Goryeosa) (고려사를 통해 본 한국 중세의 자연재해와 가뭄주기)

  • YOON, Soon-Ock;HWANG, Sangill
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2010
  • The natural hazards such as droughts, floods and frost injuries, and their relationships with the social unrest phenomena such as years of famine, smallpox and revolutions during the Medieval times(AD 936~1391) in Korea are compared and analyzed based on the History of Goryeo containing astronomical weather and climate events during the Goryeo Dynasty. Among the natural hazards during the Goryeo Dynasty, the droughts with a period of 4~5 years on average are recorded most frequently. By time series analysis, the most frequency of droughts can be found in AD 286~335, AD 786~835 and AD 1261~1320 during the Ancient and Medieval times. It is suggested that three cycles of the droughts during approximately 1,500 years of the Ancient and Medieval times are recognized and they had happened with the time intervals of approximately 500 years. The frequency of droughts increased in the late Goryeo Dynasty is consistent with those of the social chaos factors such as years of famines, smallpox and revolutions. These records suggest that the natural hazard such as years of famines was one of the most important factors influencing on the collapse of the Goryeo Dynasty, agrarian country.

Study on the Establishment of a Safety Allowance Level of Disastrous and Hazardous Facilities in Large Cities (대도시 위해.위험시설에 대한 안전도 수용기준 정립에 관한 연구)

  • 고재선;윤명오
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2001
  • In today's world, rise in the establishment of social infrastructure resulting from population saturation in large cities has led to more extensive and frequent use of chemical materials on facilities. A result, unexpected and serious accidents, hazards, contingencies and disasters are more prevalent than ever. Such phenomenon calls for more devoted and concerted efforts towards finding ways to reduce the safety hazards that are seen to take place more often than before with the increase in the number of facilities that are prone to bring disaster and hazard coupled with the conventional safety problems that continue to exist even today. In developed countries, such challenge is addressed by various appropriate countermeasures drawn up by local professional committees on industrial facilities, whose members conduct offsite and onsite evaluation un the potential industrial disasters and its seriousness and provide their advice thereof. Against this backdrop, this study aims at identifying a comprehensive safety allowance level (safety acceptable level) when imposing limitation on the development of conventional or new facilities, for the fur pose of establishing a safety allowance level of disastrous and dangerous facilities in Korea. This is done by assessing and applying the level of danger each individual is exposed to in a randomly selected region (disastrous and dangerous areas in Seoul) based on probability of quantitative hazards, as well as simulation and calculation methods which include: i) social disaster evaluation method applying Quantified Risk Assessment of Health & Safety Executive of UK and Matrix of Risk of Evaluated Sources of Hazard; ii) Fault Tree or Event Tree Analysis and etc.

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Comparison of Methods for the Analysis Percentile of Seismic Hazards (지진재해도의 백분위수 분석 방법 비교)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Me;Seo, Jung-Moon;Kim, Min-Kyu;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2011
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.

Research Trends on External Event Identification and Screening Methods for Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant (원자력발전소 안전성 평가를 위한 외부사건 식별 및 선별 방법 연구동향)

  • Kim, Dongchang;Kwag, Shinyoung;Kim, Jitae;Eem, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.252-260
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: As the intensity and frequency of natural hazards are increasing due to climate change, external events that affecting nuclear power plants(NPPs) may increase. NPPs must be protected from external events such as natural hazards and human-induced hazards. External events that may occur in NPPs should be identified, and external events that may affect NPPs should be identified. This study introduces the methodology of identification and screening methods for external events by literature review. Method: The literature survey was conducted on the identification and screening methods of external events for probabilistic safety assessment of NPPs. In addition, the regulations on the identification and screening of external events were investigated. Result: In order to minimize the cost of external event impact analysis of nuclear power plants, research on identifying and screening external events is being conducted. In general, in the identification process, all events that can occur at the NPPs are identified. In the screening process, external events are selected based on qualitative and quantitative criteria in most studies. Conclusions: The process of identifying and screening external events affecting NPPs is becoming important. This paper, summarize on how to identify and screen external events for a probabilistic safety assessment of NPPs. It is judged that research on bounding analysis and conservative analysis methods performed in the quantitative screening process of external events is necessary.

Risk Analysis and Safety Assessment of Microbiological and Chemical Hazards in the Raw Short-Neck Clams Ruditapes philippinarum Distributed in the Yeongnam and Honam Area During the Spring Season (봄철 영·호남 지역에서 유통되는 생바지락(Ruditapes philippinarum)의 미생물학적·화학적 위해요소 분석 및 안전성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji Yoon;Jeon, Eun Bi;Song, Min Gyu;Kim, Jin Soo;Lee, Jung Suck;Heu, Min Soo;Park, Shin Young
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.896-903
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    • 2021
  • For the safety assessment of microbiological and chemical hazards in raw short-neck clam Ruditapes philippinarum distributed in the Yeongnam and Honam areas during the spring season, the contamination levels of total viable bacteria, coliforms, Escherichia coli, and nine pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella spp., Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Clostridium perfringens, Listeria monocytogenes, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, Yersinia enterocolitica, Bacillus cereus, Campylobacter jejuni) as microbiological hazards, and heavy metals (lead, cadmium, total mercury), benzopyrene, shellfish poison (paralytic, diarrhetic, amnesic), and radioactivity (131I, 134Cs+137Cs) were also analyzed in 15 samples based on the methods of the Korean Food Code. The average contamination levels of total viable bacteria were 3.11 (1.40-4.49) log CFU/g, and coliforms were detected in 5 out of 15 samples (1.18-1.85 log CFU/g). E. coli and S. aureus were not detected in all samples. Furthermore, the presence of 8 pathogens were not detected in all samples. The average contamination levels of lead, cadmium, and total mercury were 0.155 (0.079-0.264), 0.160 (0.040-0.287), and 0.017 (0.008-0.026) mg/kg, respectively. Benzo(a)pyrene, shellfish poison, and radioactivity were not detected in all samples. The results of this study suggest that the safety against all microbiological and chemical hazard factors in raw short-neck clams distributed in markets has been assured.

Study on Analysis for the Slope Monitoring Performance at the Whangryeong Mountain Site (황령산 사면 계측관리 분석에 관한 연구)

  • La Won Jin;Choi Jung Chan;Kim Kyung Soo;Cho Yong Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.4 s.41
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    • pp.429-442
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    • 2004
  • Landslide of the Whanpyeong Mountain which was occurred at Busan Metropolitan City in 1999 belongs to the category of plane failure. Automatic monitoring system to measure horizontal displacement, pore pressure change and load change has operating from reconstruction stage for evaluating rock slope stability (August, 2000$\~$Feburuary, 2002). As a result of the analysis on the monitoring performance data, it is suggested that infiltrated rain water from pound surface discharges rapidly through cut-slope because pressure head of water decreases rapidly after rainfall while rise of pore pressure is proportional to the amount of rain water. As a result of data analyses for inclinometers and load cells, it seems that slope is stablized be cause ground deformation is rarely detected. The areas especially similar to the study site where landslide is induced by heavy rain fall, change of pore pressure is rapidly analyzed using automatic monitoring system. Therefore, it is considered that automatic monitoring system is very effect for slope stability analysis on important cut-slopes.

Aberrant Expression of CCAT1 Regulated by c-Myc Predicts the Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

  • Zhu, Hua-Qiang;Zhou, Xu;Chang, Hong;Li, Hong-Guang;Liu, Fang-Feng;Ma, Chao-Qun;Lu, Jun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.13
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    • pp.5181-5185
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    • 2015
  • Background: CCAT1 has been reported to be linked with pathogenesis of malignancies including colon cancer and gastric cancer. However, the regulatory effect of CCAT1 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. The purpose of this research was to identify any role of CCAT1 in the progression of HCC. Materials and Methods: Real time-PCR was performed to test the relative expression of CCAT1 in HCC tissues. A computation screen of CCAT1 promoter was conducted to search for transcription-factor-binding sites. The association of c-Myc with CCAT1 promoter in vivo was tested by Pearson correlation analysis and chromatin immunoprecipitation assay. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed. Results: c-Myc directly binds to the E-box element in the promoter region of CCAT, and when ectopically expressed increases promoter activity and expression of CCAT1. Moreover, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the patients with low expression of CCAT1 demonstrated better overall and relapse-free survival compared with the high expression group. Cox proportional hazards analyses showed that CCAT1 expression was an independent prognostic factor for HCC patients. Conclusions: The findings demonstrated CCAT1, acting as a potential biomarker in predicting the prognosis of HCC, is regulated by c-Myc.

Strategy of Technology Development for Landslide Hazards by Patent Analysis (특허 분석을 통한 산사태재해 관련 기술개발 전략)

  • Bae, Khee Su;Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae;Son, Jeong Keun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.615-629
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed existing patents related to real-time monitoring and detection technology for landslides on natural terrain. The purpose of patent analysis is to understand landslide hazard technology trends and to develop new advanced technology. This study searched patent data using key words related to landslide monitoring and detection in Korea, the USA, Japan, China (Hong Kong), Europe, and Taiwan. The patents were divided into five main categories and five to seven subcategories in each main category and analyzed by year, country, and applicants. The results were utilized to derive a portfolio of promising technologies for each country. The analysis results will also contribute to the development of more effective research strategies and to categorize research findings from previous studies on landslide hazards.

A Collision Analysis Technique for Prevention Actions of Accident in Safety Critical System (Safety Critical 시스템에서 사고의 예방동작간 충돌 분석 기법)

  • Kwon, Jang-Jin;Hong, Jang-Eui
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.2 no.10
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2013
  • A safety critical system is a system that leads to injury of people, damage of property and environment due to functional failures or occurrence of undesired condition. Therefore, to ensure the safety of a system, system engineers should consider the inherent hazards of the system at design phase of the system development, and also should design the prevention actions to minimize damage when an accident occurred. The objective of these actions is preventing the serious damage from accidents that can occur due to unforeseen circumstance. Recently, many studies have been performed to identify and analyze their hazards at design phase of safety critical systems. This paper suggests a safety analysis technique for analyzing the collision among those prevention actions to reduce accident and its effect by the collision of these actions that did not mentioned in previous studies. Through the proposed technique, it would improve robustness of safety and would help the design of prevention actions into system for the occurrence of accidents.

Survival analysis for contract maintenance period using life insurance data (생명보험자료를 이용한 계약유지기간에 대한 생존분석)

  • Yang, Dae Geon;Ha, Il Do;Cho, Geon Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.771-783
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    • 2018
  • The life insurance industry is interested in various factors that influence the long-term extensions of insurance contracts such as the necessity for the advisors' long-term management of consumers, product consulting, and improvement of the investment aspects. This paper investigates important factors leading to a long-term contract that forms an important part of the life insurance industry in Korea. For this purpose we used the data of contents (i.e., data from Jan 1, 2011 to Dec 31, 2016) of the contracts of xxx insurance company. In this paper, we present how to select important variables to influence the duration of the contract maintenance via a penalized Cox's proportional hazards (PH) modelling approach using insurance life data. As the result of analysis, we found that the selected important factors were the advisor's status, the reward type 2 (annuity insurance) and tendency 4 (safety-pursuing type).