• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard score

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Predicting Recurrence-Free Survival After Upfront Surgery in Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Preoperative Risk Score Based on CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT

  • Boryeong Jeong;Minyoung Oh;Seung Soo Lee;Nayoung Kim;Jae Seung Kim;Woohyung Lee;Song Cheol Kim;Hyoung Jung Kim;Jin Hee Kim;Jae Ho Byun
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.644-655
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    • 2024
  • Objective: To develop and validate a preoperative risk score incorporating carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, CT, and fluorine18-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET/CT variables to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Materials and Methods: Patients with resectable PDAC who underwent upfront surgery between 2014 and 2017 (development set) or between 2018 and 2019 (test set) were retrospectively evaluated. In the development set, a risk-scoring system was developed using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, including variables associated with RFS. In the test set, the performance of the risk score was evaluated using the Harrell C-index and compared with that of the postoperative pathological tumor stage. Results: A total of 529 patients, including 335 (198 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 64 ± 9 years) and 194 (103 male; mean age, 66 ± 9 years) patients in the development and test sets, respectively, were evaluated. The risk score included five variables predicting RFS: tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29 per 1 cm increment; P < 0.001), maximal standardized uptake values of tumor ≥ 5.2 (HR, 1.29; P = 0.06), suspicious regional lymph nodes (HR, 1.43; P = 0.02), possible distant metastasis on 18F-FDG PET/CT (HR, 2.32; P = 0.03), and CA 19-9 (HR, 1.02 per 100 U/mL increment; P = 0.002). In the test set, the risk score showed good performance in predicting RFS (C-index, 0.61), similar to that of the pathologic tumor stage (C-index, 0.64; P = 0.17). Conclusion: The proposed risk score based on preoperative CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT variables may have clinical utility in selecting high-risk patients with resectable PDAC.

Urban Flood Regional Safety Assesment Model (도시지역 홍수재해에 대한 지역안전도 평가모형)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Lee, Suk-Min;Shin, Sang-Young;Yeo, Chang-Geon;Kim, Youn-Jong
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.376-379
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    • 2007
  • In recent years, the natural damage associated with flood disaster has been dramatically increased. However, there is no rational method which reflects urban characteristics to estimate the regional safety assessment for flood disaster. The purpose of this study is to develop the regional safety assesment model for urban flood. Flood risk and reduction assesment were estimated by using the linear sum of the Z score of the assessment factors and the weight value of each factor from the expert survey data. And then the regional safety assessment was estimated by subtracting reduction factor value from risk factor value. GIS tool was used to estimate the factor assesment and integrated regional safety. This study can be used to determine the priority of flood protection project, execute the flood insurance and establish the urban plans and the flood mitigate plan.

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Risk Analysis System in Fuzzy Set Theory (퍼지 집합론을 이용한 위험분석 시스템)

  • 홍상우
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.13 no.21
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 1990
  • An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

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Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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Count of platelet and mean platelet volume score: serologic prognostic factor in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

  • Park, Jae Woo;Kim, Chul-Hwan;Ha, Yong Chan;Kim, Moon Young;Park, Sung Min
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: TNM staging, especially for lymph node metastasis, is the scoring system most widely used among prognostic factors for cancer survival. Several biomarkers have been studied as serologic markers, but their specificity is low and clinical applications are difficult. This study aimed to establish a scoring system for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) using platelet (PLT) and mean platelet volume (MPV) levels measured postoperatively and to evaluate their significance as prognostic factors. Materials and Methods: We studied 40 patients admitted to the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of Dankook University Hospital who were diagnosed with primary OSCC histopathologically between May 2006 and May 2012. Clinical pathological information obtained from the medical records of each patient included age, sex, height, weight, tumor location, degree of differentiation, tumor diameter, lymph node metastasis, TNM stage, and other test values including white blood cell, MPV, PLT, C-reactive protein (CRP), and albumin obtained through a test conducted within 7 days before surgery. Count of platelet (COP)-MPV Score: Patients with both PLT and MPV values below the cut-off values were defined as score 0 (group A). Patients with at least one of the two higher than the cut-off value were defined as score 1 (group B). Results: Univariate analyses showed N-metastasis, COP-MPV (A vs B), PLT, platelet-lymphocyte ratio, and CRP were statistically significant prognostic factors. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed N-metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 6.227, P=0.016) and COP-MPV (A vs B) (HR 18.992, P=0.013) were independent prognostic factors with a significant effect on survival. Conclusion: COP-MPV score is a simple and cost-effective test method and is considered a more effective prognostic factor than other considered factors in predicting the prognosis of OSCC patients.

Pesticide exposure of alpine agricultural workers in Gangwon-do and the measurement of their health status measured by SF-12 (강원도 고랭지 농업인의 농약 노출 및 SF-12를 이용한 건강수준 측정)

  • Song, Jae-Seok;Park, Woong-Sub;Seo, Jong-Chul;Kwak, Youn-Hee;Kim, Sang-Ah;Kim, Byung-Sup;Choi, Hong-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.287-291
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    • 2005
  • The development of agricultural technology makes the increasement of pesticide usage. The results of pesticide usage were the increment of agricultural outcomes, but the health hazard was increasing also. Especially, alpine agriculture needs more pesticide than general agriculture and they suffered from more pesticide induced health symptoms. There were no study about the pesticide usage and subjective health status. So, this study was performed to investigate the relationship between pesticide usage and health status. The health status was measured by SF-12. SF-12 was well known health status measurement tool. SF-12 have two components, which were mental component score and physical component score. As a results of analysis, the alpine agricultural workers had higher pesticide exposure index and acute symptom score. As the results of multivariate analysis, physical component score was affected by pesticide exposure, but mental component score was not. Although, this study has many limitations, the result of this study can suggest the need of political advise and the further study.

Survival Factors among Medical Intensive Care Unit Patients with Carbapenemas-Producing Enterobacteriaceae (카바페넴분해효소 생성 장내세균속균종(CPE)이 획득된 내과계 중환자실 환자의 생존 영향 요인)

  • Choi, Ji Eun;Jeon, Mi Yang
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.249-259
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) are associated with considerable mortality. This study was aimed to identify survival factors among medical care unit patients with CPE. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort; data were collected from September 2017 to June 2019 through electronic medical records. The data collected were general characteristics, disease-related characteristics, severity-related characteristics, and treatment-related characteristics. Data were analyzed based on frequency, mean, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and Cox proportional hazard model using SPSS/WIN 21.0 program. Results: Seventy-seven patients were included (59 survivors and 18 deceased) in the study. Univariate analysis identified factors for survival associated with acquired CPE as age (t= -1.56, p= .037), simplified acute physiology 3 (SAPS3) score of admission date (t= -2.85, p= .006), Glasgow coma scale (GCS) of CPE acquisition date (t= 2.38, p= .020), artery catheter at CPE acquisition date (χ2= 4.58, p= .032), vasoconstrictor agents use at CPE acquisition date (χ2= 6.81, p= .009), platelet at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.27, p= .025), lymphocyte at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.01, p= .048), calcium at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.68, p= .009), albumin at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.29, p= .025), and creatinine at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.24, p= .028). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that GCS at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.14, 95% CI= 1.05-1.22), lymphocyte at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.05, 95% CI= 1.00-1.10), and creatinine at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.25, 95% CI= 1.04-1.49) were independent survival factors among medical intensive care unit patients with CPE. Conclusion: Based on the study results, it is necessary to develop nursing interventions that can aid in the management of patients with CPE and identify their effects.

Targeting Risk Factors for the Control of Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: A Single Tertiary Center Experience

  • Jeong, Jiyoon;Kwun, Yoojin;Kim, Min-ju;Choi, Sang-Ho;Jung, Euiseok;Lee, Byong Sop;Kim, Ki-Soo;Kim, Ellen Ai-Rhan
    • Neonatal Medicine
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.116-123
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of targeting risk factors for the control of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) among high-risk infants in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Methods: Infants admitted to the NICU and diagnosed with CLABSI from January to December 2013 were eligible for inclusion to the study. The CLABSI group (n=47) was matched in a 1:2 ratio to the control group (n=94) based on gestational age, birth weight, and Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-II. Risk factors for CLABSI were identified using the Cox proportional hazard model, and analysis of the effect of these risk factors targeting infection control was performed. Results: The risk factors associated with CLABSI were prolonged central line dwell days (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.028; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.011 to 1.045; P=0.001), use of a silicone catheter (adjusted HR, 5.895; 95% CI, 1.893 to 18.355; P=0.002), surgical treatment (adjusted HR, 3.793; 95% CI, 1.467 to 9.805; P=0.006), and less probiotic supplementation (adjusted HR, 0.254; 95% CI, 0.068 to 0.949; P=0.042). By targeting these risk factors with a quality improvement initiative, the mean CLABSI incidence rate per 1,000 catheter-days decreased from 6.6 to 3.1 (P=0.004). Conclusion: Targeting risk factors for infection control significantly reduced the rate of CLABSI among high-risk infants in the NICU.

Association between Korean Medicine Hospital Utilization and Cardiovascular Risks in Patients with Hypertension: a National Korean Cohort Study (고혈압 환자에서 한방의료기관 이용과 심혈관 위험 요소와의 관계: 국민건강보험공단 표본코호트 DB)

  • Cho, Hyunjoo;Jung, Hyejin;Lim, Sabina
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: This study aims to investigate the effects of Korean Medicine Hospital Utilization (KMHU) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and death in hypertensive patients taking antihypertensives. Methods: Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort database, this study identified and diagnosed 68,457 hypertensive patients taking antihypertensives between 2003 and 2006. They were divided into KMHU and non-KMHU groups. The follow-up period ended with the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. After propensity score matching (PSM), there were 18,242 patients each in the non-KMHU and KMHU groups. We calculated the incidence rate, hazard ratio (HR), and 95% confidence interval (CI) for MACE, myocardial infarction, stroke, and death in patients with hypertension using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model. In addition, secondary outcome analyses for stroke and cardiovascular mortality were performed. Results: After PSM, the HRs for MACE (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81-0.87), all-cause mortality (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.72-0.79), and myocardial infarction (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83-0.97) were significantly lower in the KMHU group than in the non-KMHU group. Moreover, the HRs for stroke-related mortality, haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke-related mortality, and ischaemic heart disease-related and circulatory system disease-related mortality were significantly lower in the KMHU group than in the non-KMHU group. Conclusions: On long-term follow-up observation, this study supported the effect of KMHU for managing hypertension and reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases.

Clinical outcomes of direct-acting oral anticoagulants compared to warfarin in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (비판막성심방세동 환자에서 직접작용 경구용 항응고제 임상적 효과와 부작용 연구)

  • Hong, Jiwon;Jung, Minji;Lee, Sukhyang
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2022
  • Background: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is associated with ischemic stroke risk in the aging population. Observational studies have indicated beneficial effects of direct-acting oral anticoagulant (DOAC) against ischemic stroke compared to warfarin. This study aimed to investigate ischemic stroke incidence and bleeding risk in patients on DOAC therapy. Methods: Using the database of Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment-Aged Patient Sample 2015, we conducted a retrospective cohort study. Study subjects with NVAF diagnosis and prescribed anticoagulants were enrolled. Propensity score (PS) matching by age, sex, comorbidities, and medications were used. The clinical outcomes were major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events (MACCEs, ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, cardiac death) and bleeding events. A cox proportional hazard model analysis was performed to compare the outcomes with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Total 4,773 elderly patients with NVAF were initially included. Four PS-matched groups including rivaroxaban vs. warfarin-only (n=1,079), dabigatran vs. warfarin-only (n=721), rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran (n=721), and switchers of warfarin to rivaroxaban vs. warfarin-only (n=287) were analyzed. Every group showed statistically similar results of MACCEs and bleeding events, except for the group of rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran. Rivaroxaban users showed higher risks of bleeding events than dabigatran users (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.01-4.99). Conclusion: In the elderly patients with NVAF, efficacy and safety outcomes among oral anticoagulants including DOACs and warfarin were similar, while rivaroxaban are more likely to have higher bleeding risks than dabigatran. Further research using large size sample is needed.