• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard rate

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Abundance Estimation of the Finless Porpoise, Neophocaena phocaenoides, Using Models of the Detection Function in a Line Transect (Line Transect에서 발견율함수 추정에 사용되는 모델에 따른 상괭이, Neophocaena phocaenoides의 자원개체수 추정)

  • Park, Kyum-Joon;Kim, Zang-Geun;Zhang, Chang-Ik
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2007
  • Line transect sampling in a sighting survey is one of most widely used methods for assessing animal abundance. This study applied distance data, collected from three sighting surveys using line transects for finless porpoise that were conducted in 2004 and 2005 off the west coast of Korea, to four models (hazard-rate, uniform, half-normal and exponential) that can use a variety of detection functions, g (x). The hazard-rate model, a derived model for the detection function, should have a shoulder condition chosen using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), as the most suitable model. However, it did not describe a shoulder shape for the value of g(x) near the track tine and underestimated g (x), just as the exponential model did. The hazard-rate model showed a bias toward overestimating the densities of finless porpoises with a higher coefficient of variation (CV) than the other models did. The uniform model underestimated the densities of finless porpoise but had the lowest CV. The half-normal model described a detection function with a shape similar to that of the uniform model. The half-normal model was robust for finless porpoise data and should be able to avoid density underestimation. The estimated abundance of finless porpoise was 3,602 individuals (95% CI=1,251-10,371) inshore in 2005 and 33,045 individuals (95% CI=24,274-44,985) offshore in 2004.

Characteristics of Thermal Hazard in Methylthioisocyanate Synthesis Reaction Process (Methylthioisocyanate 합성반응 공정의 열적위험 특성)

  • Han, In-Soo;Lee, Keun-Won;Lee, Joo-Yeob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2012
  • Compared to a batch reactor, where all reactants are initially charged to the reactor, the semi-batch reactor presents serious advantages. The feed of at least one of the reactants provides an additional way of controlling the reaction course, which represents a safety factor and increases the constancy of the product quality. The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of thermal hazard such as a feed time, catalysis concentration and solvent concentration in methylthioisocyanate(MTI) synthesis reaction process. The experiments were carried out by the Multimax reactor system and Accelerating rate calorimeter(ARC). The MTI synthesis reaction process has many reaction factors and complicated reaction mechanism of multiphase reaction. Through this study, we can use as a tool for assessment of thermal hazard of other reaction processes by applying experiment method provided.

SEQUENTIAL INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR THE EXPONENTIAL HAZARD RATE WHEN THE LOSS FUNCTION IS STRICTLY CONVEX

  • Jang, Yu Seon
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.429-437
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    • 2013
  • Let $X_1$, $X_2$, ${\cdots}$, $X_n$ be independent and identically distributed random variables having common exponential density with unknown mean ${\mu}$. In the sequential confidence interval estimation for the exponential hazard rate ${\theta}=1/{\mu}$, when the loss function is strictly convex, the following stopping rule is proposed with the half length d of prescribed confidence interval $I_n$ for the parameter ${\theta}$; ${\tau}$ = smallest integer n such that $n{\geq}z^2_{{\alpha}/2}\hat{\theta}^2/d^2+2$, where $\hat{\theta}=(n-1)\bar{X}{_n}^{-1}/n$ is the minimum risk estimator for ${\theta}$ and $z_{{\alpha}/2}$ is defined by $P({\mid}Z{\mid}{\leq}{\alpha}/2)=1-{\alpha}({\alpha}{\in}(0,1))$ Z ~ N(0, 1). For the confidence intervals $I_n$ which is required to satisfy $P({\theta}{\in}I_n){\geq}1-{\alpha}$. These estimated intervals $I_{\tau}$ have the asymptotic consistency of the sequential procedure; $$\lim_{d{\rightarrow}0}P({\theta}{\in}I_{\tau})=1-{\alpha}$$, where ${\alpha}{\in}(0,1)$ is given.

Seismic hazard assessment for two cities in Eastern Iran

  • Farzampour, Alireza;Kamali-Asl, Arash
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.681-697
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    • 2015
  • Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

Seismic risk assessment of intake tower in Korea using updated fragility by Bayesian inference

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.69 no.3
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2019
  • This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

The Impact of Fatigue on Hazard Recognition: An Objective Pilot Study

  • Ibrahim, Abdullahi;Okpala, Ifeanyi;Nnaji, Chukwuma;Namian, Mostafa;Koh, Amanda
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.450-457
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    • 2022
  • The construction industry is demanding, dynamic, and complex making it difficult for workers to recognize hazards. The nature of construction tasks exposes workers to several critical risk factors, such as a high rate of exertion and fatigue. Recent studies suggest that fatigue may impact hazard recognition in the construction industry. However, most studies rely on subjective measures when assessing the relationship between physical fatigue and hazard recognition, limiting such studies' efficacy. Thus, this study examined the relationship between physical fatigue and hazard recognition using a controlled experiment. Worker fatigue levels were captured using physiological data and a subjective exertion scale. The findings confirmed that physical exertion plays a significant role in hazard recognition skills (p < 0.05). This research contributes to theory and practice by providing a process for objectively assessing the influence of physical fatigue on worker safety and providing construction professionals with some critical insight needed to improve workplace safety.

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Hazard Distance from Hydrogen Accidents (수소가스사고의 피해범위)

  • Jo, Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2012
  • An analysis was completed of the hazards distance of hydrogen accidents such as jet release, jet fire, and vapor cloud explosion(VCE) of hydrogen gas, and simplified equations have been proposed to predict the hazard distances to set up safety distance by the gas dispersion, fire, and explosion following hydrogen gas release. For a small release rate of hydrogen gas, such as from a pine-hole, the hazard distance from jet dispersion is longer than that from jet fire. The hazard distance is directly proportional to the pressure raised to a half power and to the diameter of hole and up to several tens meters. For a large release rate, such as from full bore rupture of a pipeline or a large hole of storage vessel, the hazard distance from a large jet fire is longer than that from unconfined vapor cloud explosion. The hazard distance from the fire may be up to several hundred meters. Hydrogen filling station in urban area is difficult to compliance with the safety distance criterion, if the accident scenario of large hydrogen gas release is basis for setting up the safety distance, which is minimum separation distance between the station and building. Therefore, the accident of large hydrogen gas release must be prevented by using safety devices and the safety distance may be set based on the small release rate of hydrogen gas. But if there are any possibility of large release, populated building, such as school, hospital etc, should be separated several hundred meters.

A Study on Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment of Railway Signal System Using FTA/ETA Method (FTA/ETA 기법을 이용한 철도신호시스템의 위험 분석 및 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 백영구;박영수;이재훈;이기서
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.473-480
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, it was proposed that hazard analysis and risk assessment about railway signal systems using FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) one of the reliability analysis methods executed and output value based on the hazard baseline of CENELEC and EC 61508 producted, and also the SIL(Safety Integrity Level)/THR(Tolerable Hazard Rate) about the system set. On the basis of this principle, more systematic standardizations are required to operate railway system and in the future, we hope that safety and reliability of signal equipment will be better improved.

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A study on the improvement of the score system in the hazard analysis and critical control points prerequisite program for meat shops in Korea

  • Baek, Seung-Hee;Nam, Insik
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.61 no.3
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    • pp.20.1-20.9
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    • 2021
  • This study is to develop a new scoring system for rating Hazard analysis and critical control points prerequisite evaluation items for meat shops to provide a more objective and accurate evaluation of food safety compliance. The importance of each item was measured by looking at the hazard severity level and the rate of non-compliance associated with it. It was found that the new scoring system is more stringent and gives a clearer picture of compliance with the most critical safety standards, and therefore is expected to have a positive effect on the hygiene and safety of livestock products.

Implementation of the Industrial Hazard Detection System using LoRa Network (LoRa 통신기반 산업재해감지시스템 구현)

  • Seo, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Nak-Hun;Hong, Sung-Yong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.141-151
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    • 2019
  • To protect workers from industrial accidents, IoT hazard detection system using LoRa network was designed and fabricated. LoRa networks can operate with low power consumption, wide coverage, and low usage fees. The hazard detection system consists of a sensor unit, a transceiver module, a LoRa base station, ThingPlug, and a monitoring device. We have designed an optimal risk-determining algorithm that can send information quickly in a working environment. As measured by TTA, the implemented system has been found to be able to deliver the worker's location, ambient temperature, and carbon monoxide density to the administrator through the user interface. The implemented system showed a bit rate of 290bps and a maximum application range of 6 km.