• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.99-106
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• 2010

In this paper, we present two methods for obtaining prediction intervals for the times to failure of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively censored sample from proportional hazard rate models. A numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented to illustrate the prediction methods.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.127-140
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• 2006

AIn this paper we introduce and study a multivariate notions of mean inactivity time (MIT) functions. Basic properties of these functions are derived and their relationship to the multivariate conditional reversed hazard rate functions is studied. A partial ordering, called MIT ordering, of non-negative random vectors is introduced and its basic properties are presented. Its relationship to reversed hazard rate ordering is pointed out. Finally, using the MIT ordering, a bivariate and multivariate notions of IMIT (increasing mean inactivity time) class is introduced and studied.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.15-26
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• 2000

This paper considers an aperiodic preventive maintenance (PM) model for repairable systems, in which the time intervals between two consecutive preventive maintenances are unequal. To propose such an aperiodic PM model, we assume that each PM reduces the current hazard rate by a certain amount which depends on the number of PMs performed previously. If the system fails between PMs, the minimal repair is performed and the hazard rate remains unchanged after the repair. We give the exact expressions for the hazard rate function for the aperiodic PM model. Based on the proposed aperiodic PM model, we suggest the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters characterizing the model and apply the method to the case of Weibull distribution. Numerical examples for estimating the parameters are presented for the purpose of illustration.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.65-76
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• 2014

In this article, a new model based on Lomax distribution is introduced. This new model is both useful and practical in areas such as economic, reliability and life testing. Some statistical properties of this model are presented including moments, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, mean residual life and mean inactivity time functions, among others. It is also shown that the distributions of the new model are ordered with respect to the strongest likelihood ratio ordering. The method of moment and maximum likelihood estimation are used to estimates the unknown parameters. Simulation is utilized to calculate the unknown shape parameter and to study its properties. Finally, to illustrate the concepts, the appropriateness of the new model for real data sets are included.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.27-39
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• 2013

In this article, a new model based on the Rayleigh distribution is introduced. This model is useful and practical in physics, reliability, and life testing. The statistical and reliability properties of this model are presented, including moments, the hazard rate, the reversed hazard rate, and mean residual life functions, among others. In addition, it is shown that the distributions of the new model are ordered regarding the strongest likelihood ratio ordering. Four estimating methods, namely, method of moment, maximum likelihood method, Bayes estimation, and uniformly minimum variance unbiased, are used to estimate the parameters of this model. Simulation is used to calculate the estimates and to study their properties. Finally, the appropriateness of this model for real data sets is shown by using the chi-square goodness of fit test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.170-175
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• 2005

This study presents a prediction of a failure rate in a safety required system that consists of a embedded control system, requiring a satisfaction of a quantitative safety requirement. International Standards are employed to achieve a regular procedures in the whole life cycle of a system, for the purpose of a prediction and a evaluation of a fault that might be able to be happened in a system. This International Standards uses SIL (Safety Integrity Level) to evaluate a safety level of a system. SIL is divided into 4 levels, from level 1 to level 4, and each level has functional failure rate and dangerous failure rate of a system. In this paper we describe the conventional method to predict the dangerous failure rate and propose a method using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate. The conventional method and the technique using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate are made a comparison through the control modules of the interlocking system in KTX. The proposed method verify better effectiveness for the prediction of the dangerous failure rate than that of the conventional method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.280-291
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• 2020

Objectives: Hazard classification is a controversial issue in the new MSDS system in which chemical companies have to prepare and submit MSDS for chemicals that they manufacture or import to the competent authorities according to the amended Occupational Safety and Health Act. The aim of this study is to suggest how to apply and manage harmonized hazard classification criteria and results by investigating current hazard classification systems and trends. Methods: The domestic issues about different hazard classification criteria and results were investigated by reviewing the literature and business outcomes regarding KOSHA. We also checked official and unofficial reports from the UN to understand international discussion about the topic. Chemical hazard classification results from agencies providing chemical information were analyzed to compare a harmonized rate between classifications. Furthermore, a field survey of a few chemical companies was conducted. Results: Under the related competent authorities, an integrated standard proposal was developed to harmonize the domestic hazard classification criteria. Although harmonized chemical information is strongly needed, we recognized the uncertainty and difficulty of harmonized hazard classification from the UN global list project review. In practice the harmonization rate of the classification was generally low between the classification in KOSHA, MoE, and EU CLP. Among hazard classes, health hazards largely led the disharmony. The field survey revealed a change of perception that the main body of chemical information production is manufacturers. Approaches and solutions about hazard classification issues differed depending on business size, types of chemical handling, and other factors. Conclusions: We proposed reasonable ways by time and step to apply hazard classification in the new MSDS system. Chemical manufacturers should make and offer chemical information including responsible hazard classifications. The government should primarily accept these classifications, evaluate them by priority, and support or supervise workplaces in order to communicate reliable chemical information.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.26-35
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• 2005

This paper is intended to compare the hazard rate estimations from Bayesian approach and maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) method. Hazard rate frequently involves unknown parameters and it is common that those parameters are estimated from observed data by using MLE method. Such estimated parameters are appropriate as long as there are sufficient data. Due to various reasons, however, we frequently cannot obtain sufficient data so that the result of MLE method may be unreliable. In order to resolve such a problem we need to rely on the judgement about the unknown parameters. We do this by adopting the Bayesian approach. The first one is to use a predictive distribution and the second one is a method called Bayesian estimate. In addition, in the Bayesian approach, the prior distribution has a critical effect on the result of analysis, so we introduce the method using computerized-simulation to elicit an effective prior distribution. For the simplicity, we use exponential and gamma distributions as a likelihood distribution and its natural conjugate prior distribution, respectively. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the potential benefits of the Bayesian approach.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.23-31
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• 2022

Background: Potato is the main crop of Ardabil Plain (accounting for one-fifth of potato production in Iran). Its health hazard risk to farmers is rising due to the increasing rate of pesticide use. The present study analyzes potato farmers' health hazard risk in the use of chemical pesticides. Methods: The rate of pesticide use by farmers (n = 370) was first compared with the recommended dosage (on pesticide label). Then, a composite index was employed to estimate the health hazard risk of farmers during pesticide use, and the variables accounting for pesticide overuse and nonoveruse were analyzed. Safety behavior was examined in four steps, namely of pesticide purchase and storage, preparation, application, and postapplication. Results: It was found that 74.6 percent of potato farmers used pesticides in higher concentrations than the recommended dosage. The higher average rate of pesticide use versus recommendation (label instruction) was related to Chlorpyrifos and Trifluralin, and the highest average health hazard risk among farmers was related to the use of Chlorpyrifos and Metribuzin. Farmers with a higher risk of health hazard displayed much lower safety behavior than the other farmers at all steps of pesticide use. Conclusion: The most important variables discriminating the health hazard risk of farmers' overuse included health behavior identity, attitude, knowledge and awareness, and cues to action. Therefore, using social media, holding local exhibitions, and engaging local leaders and skilled farmers in the region to improve farmers' attitudes and health behavior identity toward the dangers of chemical pesticides can play a significant role in motivating farmers' display of overuse preventive behaviors.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.303-316
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• 2023

Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.