• 제목/요약/키워드: hazard curves

검색결과 125건 처리시간 0.023초

Proposal of new ground-motion prediction equations for elastic input energy spectra

  • Cheng, Yin;Lucchini, Andrea;Mollaioli, Fabrizio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • 제7권4호
    • /
    • pp.485-510
    • /
    • 2014
  • In performance-based seismic design procedures Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-Spectral acceleration ($S_a$) are commonly used to predict the response of structures to earthquake. Recently, research has been carried out to evaluate the predictive capability of these standard Intensity Measures (IMs) with respect to different types of structures and Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) commonly used to measure damage. Efforts have been also spent to propose alternative IMs that are able to improve the results of the response predictions. However, most of these IMs are not usually employed in probabilistic seismic demand analyses because of the lack of reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). In order to define seismic hazard and thus to calculate demand hazard curves it is essential, in fact, to establish a GMPE for the earthquake intensity. In the light of this need, new GMPEs are proposed here for the elastic input energy spectra, energy-based intensity measures that have been shown to be good predictors of both structural and non-structural damage for many types of structures. The proposed GMPEs are developed using mixed-effects models by empirical regressions on a large number of strong-motions selected from the NGA database. Parametric analyses are carried out to show the effect of some properties variation, such as fault mechanism, type of soil, earthquake magnitude and distance, on the considered IMs. Results of comparisons between the proposed GMPEs and other from the literature are finally shown.

Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Breast Cancer Referred to Omitted Cancer Research Center in Iran

  • Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Shahmirzalou, Parviz;Zayeri, Farid;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil;Hadizadeh, Mohammad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제16권12호
    • /
    • pp.5081-5084
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that starts from cells of the breast and is seen mainly in women. It's the most common cancer in women worldwide and is a major threat to health. The purpose of this study was to fit a Cox proportional hazards model for prediction and determination of years of survival in Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 366 patients with breast cancer in the Cancer Research Center were included in the study. A Cox proportional hazard model was used with variables such as tumor grade, number of removed positive lymph nodes, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) expression and several other variables. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted and multi-years of survival were evaluated. Results: The mean age of patients was 48.1 years. Consumption of fatty foods (p=0.033), recurrence (p<0.001), tumor grade (p=0.046) and age (p=0.017) were significant variables. The overall 1- year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were found to be 93%, 75% and 52%. Conclusions: Use of covariates and the Cox proportional hazard model are effective in predicting the survival of individuals and this model distinguished 4 effective factors in the survival of patients.

Lack of Association between an XRCC1 Gene Polymorphism and Colorectal Cancer Survival in Thailand

  • Siewchaisakul, Pallop;Suwanrungruang, Krittika;Poomphakwaen, Kirati;Wiangnon, Surapon;Promthet, Supannee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제17권4호
    • /
    • pp.2055-2060
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common causes of death worldwide and in Thailand. The X-ray repair cross-complementary protein 1 (XRCC1) is required for efficient DNA repair. The effects of this gene on survival in colorectal cancer remain controversial and have not been reported in Thailand. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of the XRCC1 gene with survival of colorectal cancer patients in a Thai population. Materials and Methods: Data and blood samples were collected from 255 newly diagnosed and pathologically confirmed CRC patients who were recruited during the period 2002 to 2006 and whose vital status was followed up until 31 October, 2014. Real-time PCR-HRM was used for genotype identification. The Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to estimate cumulative survival curves and compare various survival distributions and adjusted hazard ratios. Results: Most of the cases were males, and the median age was 55 years. The median survival time was 2.43 years. The cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10 year survival rates were 76.70%, 39.25%, 26.50%, 16.60% and 3.56%, respectively. After adjustment, female gender, ages 50-59 and ${\geq}60years$, tumour stage III+IV, a signet-ring cell carcinoma, and poor differentiation had significant associations with increased risk of CRC death. While the XRCC1 Arg/Arg homozygote appeared to be a risk factor for CRC death, the association was not significant. Conclusions: The genetic variant in the XRCC1 may not be associated with the survival of CRC patients in Thailand. Further studies are needed to verify our findings.

Polymorphism of XRCC1 Codon 399 and Prognosis of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients After Radiotherapy

  • Cho, Eun-Kyung;Yoon, Sang-Min;Park, Heon-Ju;Lee, Kwan-Hee;Kim, Jin-Hee;Hong, Yun-Chul
    • Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
    • /
    • 제1권4호
    • /
    • pp.217-223
    • /
    • 2005
  • To assess that the XRCC1 399Gln variant contributes to sensitivity to ionizing radiation treatment and is associated with progression-free and overall survival, one hundred and ninety-five lung cancer patients were recruited at the Asan Medical Center from 2000 to 2003. We determined the genotypes of the XRCC1 genes by PCR-RFLP. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the log-rank test were used to analyze the effects of genotypes on survival. Hazard ratios, adjusted for age, sex, and other potential confounders, were calculated using the Cox-proportional hazard model. Patients carrying the 399Gln variant allele under radiotherapy only had a shorter progression-free and overall survival than those with the 399Arg homozygote. However, when we analyzed for the effect of the XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism in the combined treatment of surgical resection and radiotherapy, we found that patients with the 399Gln variant allele had a longer progression-free and overall survival. This study shows different associations between the XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism and progression-free or overall survival depending on treatment protocol in patients with NSCLC.

지표면의 조건을 고려한 지반침하 분석용 GIS (GIS for Subsidence Analysis by Considering Surface Condition)

  • 권광수;이준용;박형동
    • 자원환경지질
    • /
    • 제34권6호
    • /
    • pp.595-600
    • /
    • 2001
  • 최근 들어, 지하철공사나 폐광의 관리와 같은 지하공간의 공사에 의한 지반침하에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다 GIS (Geographic Information System; 지리정보시스템)를 이용한 지반침하의 분석은 공간자료의 처리 및 데이터베이스의 구축 차원에서 장점을 지니고 있다. GIS를 이용한 분석에 있어, 보다 나은 결과를 위해서는 기존의 침하 이론이나 모델의 보완이 필요하다. 복잡한 지형을 고려하기 위해서는 표면의 지형 기복을 고려한 모델의 민정이 필요하며, 3차원 상의 분석을 위해서는 2개의 직고하는 2차원 침하곡선을 동시에 고려할 필요성이 있다. 이러한 보완을 통해서 GIS를 이용한 지반침하 분석 모델을 구축할 수 있으며, 이의 실제 적용 가능성의 판단을 위해 이상적인 경우의 지하공동과 지반조건에 대해 분석을 수행하였다. 공동의 특성, 토층의 특성, 지하수 조건 및 지형조건의 현실적인 입력변수로의 활용을 통해, 보다 더 신뢰성 있는 결과와 활용분야의 확대를 기대할 수 있다.

  • PDF

단시간강우의 수문학적 특성에 따른 시간분포 분석 (An Analysis of the Temporal Pattern according to Hydrologic Characteristics of Short-Duration Rainfall)

  • 이정식;신창동;장진욱
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제6권3호
    • /
    • pp.57-68
    • /
    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 강우의 수문학적 특성을 고려하여 단시간강우의 시간분포를 분석하고, Huff의 무차원 누가곡선을 제시하였으며, 강우의 수문학적 특성은 지속기간, 강우의 발생원인(장마, 태풍, 집중호우, 전선형강우), 구간변화 등으로 분류하였다. 본 연구의 수행으로 인해 얻어진 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 국내 도시지역의 단시간 강우의 최대강우강도는 전방위구간에서 발생할 확률이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 둘째, 강우발생원인별 분류에서도 전반적으로 전방위구간에서 최대강우강도가 발생하였으나 태풍의 경우에는 후방위구간에서 최대강우강도가 발생하였다. 셋째, Huff의 6구간 분석에서는 동일한 위치에 해당되는 제2구간에서 우세하였다. 넷째, 전기간 강우자료를 이용한 기존 연구들의 무차원 누가곡선 및 특성변수와의 비교를 실시하여, 수문학적 특성에 따라 무차원 누가곡선의 위치 및 특성변수의 값에서 차이가 발생한다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

비내진 설계된 철근콘크리트 아파트의 성능점 도출에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Deduction of performance Point of Nonseismically Designed Reinforced Concrete Apartment)

  • 권기혁
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제5권4호
    • /
    • pp.85-93
    • /
    • 2005
  • 21세기 한반도에는 인명과 사회 경제 시스템에 큰 피해를 초래할 수 있는 대규모 지진활동이 활발할 것으로 추정되고 있다. 서울시에서 수행한 "서울시 지진대응 모델 개발"에 관한 연구에서 서울지역에 규모 6.3이상의 가상지진이 발생할 것으로 예측하였다. 국내의 축적된 연구 결과가 부족하고 국내 현실을 반영한 제반 요소들이 충분히 평가 검증되지 않은 상태이기 때문에 기존의 지진피해 평가 기법을 적용하기에는 근본적인 제약이 있다. 따라서, 국내 현실에 보다 적합한 다양한 연구를 수행하기 위해서는 기초적 연구들이 먼저 수행되어야 한다. 본 연구는 국내에 적합하고, 신뢰성 있는 지진피해 평가시스템 구축을 위한 기초연구의 하나로서 비내진 설계된 철근콘크리트 아파트 건축물을 대상으로 현황조사에 의한 자료의 수집과 분석을 통해 이들 건축물의 표준형을 설정하고 이들의 내진성능점을 도출하여, 비내진 설계된 철근콘크리트 아파트건축물의 피해평가를 위한 기초자료를 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다.

Effect of tunnel fire: Analysis and remedial measures

  • Choubey, Bishwajeet;Dutta, Sekhar C.;Kumar, Virendra
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제80권6호
    • /
    • pp.701-709
    • /
    • 2021
  • The paper aims at improving the understanding and mitigating the effects of tunnel fires that may breakout due to the burning fuel and/or explosion within the tunnel. This study particularly focuses on the behavior of the commonly used horse shoe geometry of tunnel systems. The problem has been obtained using an adequate well-established program incorporating the Lagrangian approach. A transient-thermo-coupled static structural analysis is carried out. The effects of radiation and convection to the outer walls of the tunnel is studied. The paper also presents the impact of the hazard on the structural integrity of the tunnel. A methodology is proposed to study the tunnel fire using a model which uses equivalent steel sheet to represent the presence of reinforcements to improve the computational efficiency with adequate validation. A parametric study has been carried out and the effect of suitable lining property for mitigating the fire hazard is arrived at. Detailed analysis is done for the threshold limits of the properties of the lining material to check if it is acceptable in all aspects for the integrity of the tunnel. The study may prove useful for developing insights for ensuring tunnel fire safety. To conduct such studies experimentally are tremendously costly but are required to gain confidence. But, scaled models, as well as loading and testing conditions, cannot be studied by many trials experimentally as the cost will shoot up sharply. In this context, the results obtained from such computational studies with a feasible variation of various combinations of parameters may act as a set of guidelines to freeze the adequate combination of various parameters to conduct one or two costly experiments for confidence building.

Clinical evaluation of 3.0-mm narrow-diameter implants: a retrospective study with up to 5 years of observation

  • InKyung Hwang;Tae-Il Kim;Young-Dan Cho
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
    • /
    • 제54권1호
    • /
    • pp.44-52
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes of a single type of narrow-diameter implant (NDI) by investigating its survival rate and peri-implant marginal bone loss (MBL). In addition, variables possibly related to implant survival and MBL were investigated to identify potential risk factors. Methods: The study was conducted as a retrospective study involving 49 patients who had received 3.0-mm diameter TSIII implants (Osstem Implant Co.) at Seoul National University Dental Hospital. In total, 64 implants were included, and dental records and radiographic data were collected from 2017 to 2022. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox proportional hazard model were used to estimate the implant survival rate and to investigate the effects of age, sex, jaw, implant location, implant length, the stage of surgery, guided bone regeneration, type of implant placement, and the surgeon's proficiency (resident or professor) on implant survival. The MBL of the NDIs was measured, and the factors influencing MBL were evaluated. Results: The mean observation period was 30.5 months (interquartile range, 26.75-45 months), and 6 out of 64 implants failed. The survival rate of the NDIs was 90.6%, and the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age was associated with implant failure (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.31, P=0.01). The mean MBL was 0.44±0.75 mm, and no factors showed statistically significant associations with greater MBL. Conclusions: NDIs can be considered a primary alternative when standard-diameter implants are unsuitable. However, further studies are required to confirm their long-term stability.

Is partial hepatectomy a curable treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma accompanied by cirrhosis? A meta-analysis and cure model analysis

  • Byungje Bae;Keera Kang;Sung Kyu Song;Chul-Woon Chung;Yongkeun Park
    • 한국간담췌외과학회지
    • /
    • 제26권1호
    • /
    • pp.47-57
    • /
    • 2022
  • Backgrounds/Aims: It is challenging to assess the efficacy of partial hepatectomy (PH) as a treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accompanied by cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the cure fraction of PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis compared to that for HCC without cirrhosis. Methods: A systematic review was performed on outcomes of previous studies that compared recurrence-free survival (RFS) after PH in patients with HCC with or without cirrhosis. A meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative hazard ratio for two patient groups: cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis. Cure fractions after PH in both groups were determined using a cure model analysis. Results: A total of 18 studies were eligible for meta-analysis and 13 studies were selected for the cure model analysis. The cumulative hazard ratio for RFS of the cirrhosis group compared to that of the non-cirrhosis group was 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.93). Survival data of 3,512 patients in both groups were reconstructed from survival curves of original articles for cure model analysis. The probability of being statistically cured after PH for HCC was 14.1% (95% CI, 10.6%-18.1%) in the cirrhosis group lower than that (32.5%) in the non-cirrhosis group (95% CI, 28.6%-36.4%). Conclusions: The prognosis after PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis is inferior to that for HCC without cirrhosis. However, a cure can be expected for one-seventh of patients with HCC accompanied by cirrhosis after PH.