• Title/Summary/Keyword: goodness-of-fit

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A Comparative Study on the Goodness of Fit in Spatial Econometric Models Using Housing Transaction Prices of Busan, Korea (부산시 실거래 주택매매 가격을 이용한 공간계량모형의 적합도 비교연구)

  • Chung, Kyoun-Sup;Kim, Sung-Woo;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2012
  • The OLS(ordinary least squares) method is widely used in hedonic housing models. One of the assumptions of the OLS is an independent and uniform distribution of the disturbance term. This assumption can be violated when the spatial autocorrelation exists, which in turn leads to undesirable estimate results. An alterative to this, spatial econometric models have been introduced in housing price studies. This paper describes the comparisons between OLS and spatial econometric models using housing transaction prices of Busan, Korea. Owing to the approaches reflecting spatial autocorrelation, the spatial econometric models showed some superiority to the traditional OLS in terms of log likelihood and sigma square(${\sigma}^2$). Among the spatial models, the SAR(Spatial Autoregressive Models) seemed more appropriate than the SAC(General Spatial Models) and the SEM(Spatial Errors Models) for Busan housing markets. We can make sure the spatial effects on housing prices, and the reconstruction plans have strong impacts on the transaction prices. Selecting a suitable spatial model will play an important role in the housing policy of the government.

The Development and Initial Validation of the Korean Version of Strengths Scale of Individuals with Mental Illness (한국형 강점척도-정신장애인용 개발연구)

  • Park, Jung-Im
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.596-608
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    • 2017
  • This study was carried out in order to develop and validate the Korean Version of Strengths Scale for individuals with mental illness. The first step taken to develop the scale was to construct sample items for the Strengths Scale using literature research and three focus group interviews of individuals with mental illness. Secondly, two professors of the Social welfare Department of a University and two mental social workers reviewed these sample items to select and compile a final version of the scale. Lastly, the scale's reliability and validity was verified through an empirical study of 478 individuals with mental illness who conduct the survey items. The explanatory factor was that the sample items can be grouped into seven factors. Factor 1 was 'Vocation', Factor 2 was 'Family and Social Support', Factor 3 was 'Optimism', Factor 4 was 'Resources Utilization', Factor 5 was 'Coping Behavior', Factor 6 was 'Leisure', Factor 7 was 'Health'. The Confirmatory analysis showed that the model demonstrated a goodness- of-fit. Finally, the Korean Version of Strengths Scale for individuals with mental illness was developed consisting 40 items and was proposed a mental health social work implications.

The Validity and Reliability of Communication Skills Attitude Scale (CSAS) for Nursing Students (간호대학생의 의사소통 태도 측정도구 타당도 및 신뢰도 검증)

  • Song, Mi-Ok;Yun, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.345-355
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the Communication Skills Attitude Scale, which is used to examine communication learning attitudes for domestic nursing students. Study subjects were 401 nursing students at two nursing college who completed the CSAS scale consisting of 26 items from June 1 to 15. Data were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency with IBM Statistics SPSS 21.0, and the IBM Statistics AMOS 21.0 program. To verify the construction factor of the scale, exploratory factor analysis with varimax rotation was performed, resulting in four factors but confirmed positive and negative attitudes two factors with 19 items considering the construct of theory and interpretability. The internal structure of the scale was schematized using confirmatory factor analysis, and goodness of fit of the final research model was very appropriate as shown by ${\chi}^2=446.475$ (df=148, p<0.001), TLI=.90, CFI=.91, RMSEA=.07, SRMR=.05. The final scale consisted of 19 items and two factors based on the confirmatory factor analysis. Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ for final scale was .90, showing internal consistency. The CSAS is expected to be useful to monitor the effectiveness of multiple teaching strategies about communication for domestic nursing students.

A Study on Users' Travel Behavior Analysis of Transit Transfer (대중교통 이용자의 환승교통수단선택 행태분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Kim, Jae Seok;Kim, Min Seok;Woo, Yong Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2013
  • This study developed the transit transfer mode choice model aimed Daegu transit users using multinomial logit model. Dependent variables of estimating multinomial logit model were transit transfer modes such as bus to bus, bus to subway, subway to subway, bus to others, and subway to others, and explanatory variables which affect transit transfer mode choice were sex, age, occupation, handicap, transfer area, purpose of travel and travel time. Also probability regarding explanatory variables was estimated using multinomial logit model and limit marginal analysis was carried out according to explanatory variables(cost, time). In the results, indicating goodness of fit is very reasonable as ${\rho}^2$=0.354. According to the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability, when travel time is increased, users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use subway to subway. Furthermore users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use bus to others and subway to others when travel cost is increased in the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability.

The Impact of Public Transit Accessibility on the Car-sharing Use Demand (대중교통 접근성이 카셰어링 이용수요에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Suk-Hee;LEE, Kyu-Jin
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of public transit accessibility on the Carsharing use demand. By utilizing the rental historical DB of Greencar which is operated in Suwon city and public transit GIS DB, the use demand models for Carsharing by rental offices are built and analyzed in accordance with public transit accessibility. The result indicates 73% of walking as a majority, 3% cycling, and 20% using buses and urban railways to access Carsharing rental offices. The goodness of fit of Carsharing use models reflecting accessibility to buses and railways is verified as 0.818 which proves that public transit accessibility is a significant variable. Therefore, it is verified that installing Carsharing rental offices where public transit transfer is convenient can possibly increase the use demand. Especially, while accessibility to buses is verified as a significant variable out of other public transit means, the accessibility to urban railways is verified as not significant. This suggests that a variety of complementary policies such as transfer discount policy and one-way transfer return policy are necessary in between urban railways and Carsharing in order to promote mutual use demand in accordance with the other public transit means. This study result is yet the basic research on Carsharing, however it is expected to contribute to improvement of transfer demand in between different public transit means.

Analysis of the Variation Pattern of the Wave Climate in the Sokcho Coastal Zone (속초 연안의 파랑환경 변화양상 분석)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Jeong, Weon-Mu;Baek, Won-Dae;Kim, Sang-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.120-127
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    • 2012
  • Exploratory data analysis was carried out by using the long-term wave climate data in Sokcho coastal zone. The main features found in this study are as follows. The coefficient of variations on the wave height and period are about 0.11 and 0.02, respectively. It also shows that the annual components of the wave height and period are dominant and their amplitudes are 0.24 m and 0.56 seconds, respectively. The amount of intra-annual variation range is about two times greater than that of the inter-annual variation range. The distribution shapes of the wave data are very similar to the log-normal and GEV(generalized extreme value) functions. However, the goodness-of-fit tests based on the KS test show as "rejected" for all suggested density functions. Then, the structure of the timeseries wave height data is roughly estimated as AR(3) model. Based on the wave duration results, it is clearly shown that the continuous and maximum duration is decreased as a power function shape and the total duration is exponentially decreased. Meanwhile, the environment of the Sokcho coastal zone is classified as a wave-dominated environment.

Comparison on Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient Test Considering Skewness of Sample for the GEV Distribution (표본자료의 왜곡도 영향을 고려한 GEV 분포의 확률도시 상관계수 검정방법 비교 검토)

  • Ahn, Hyunjun;Shin, Hongjoon;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2014
  • It is important to estimate an appropriate quantile for design of hydraulic structure. For this purpose, it is necessary to find the appropriate probability distribution which can represent the sample data well. Probability plot correlation coefficient test as one of goodness-of-fit test, is recently developed and has been known as a simple and powerful method. In this study, probability plot correlation coefficient test statistics using the plotting position considering the coefficients of skewness for the GEV distribution is derived, and represented by the regression equation. Monte-Carlo method is also performed to compare the rejection power between each method. As the results, the probability plot correlation coefficient test which is derived in this study is better than the others. In particular, when sample size is small and distribution has the shape parameter, rejection power of probability plot correlation coefficient test considering the coefficients of skewness is bigger than the others.

Parameter Regionalization of Semi-Distributed Runoff Model Using Multivariate Statistical Analysis (다변량 통계분석을 이용한 준분포형 유출모형 매개변수 지역화)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Jung, Il-Won;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.149-160
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to suggest parameter regionalization scheme which is integrated two multivariate statistical methods: principal components analysis(PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA). This technique is to apply semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model on ungauged catchments. 7 catchment characteristics (area, mean altitude, mean slope, ratio of forest, water content at saturation, field capacity and wilting point) are estimated for 109 mid-sized sub-basins. The first two components from PCA results account for 82.11% of the total variance in the dataset. Component 1 is related to the location of the catchments relevant to the altitude and Component 2 is connected with the area of these. 103 ungauged catchments are clustered using HCA as the following 6 groups: Goesan 23, Andong 6, Imha 5, Hapcheon 21, Yongdam 4, Seomjin 44. SWAT model is used to simulate runoff and the parameters of the model on the 6 gauged basins are estimated. The model parameters were regionalized for Soyang, Chungju and Daecheong dam basins which are assumed as ungauged ones. The model efficiency coefficients of the simulated inflows for these three dams were at least 0.8. These results also mean that goodness of fit is high to the observed inflows. This research will contribute to estimate and analyze hydrologic components on the ungauged catchments.

Estimation of Road Capacity at Two-Lane Freeway Work Zones Considering the Rate of Heavy Vehicles (중차량 비에 따른 편도 2차로 고속도로 공사구간 도로 용량 추정)

  • Ko, Eunjeong;Kim, Hyungjoo;Park, Shin Hyoung;Jang, Kitae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.48-61
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study is to estimate traffic capacity based on the heavy-vehicle ratio in a two-lane freeway work zone where one lane is blocked by construction. For this, closed circuit television (CCTV) video data of the freeway work zone was collected, and the congestion at an upstream point was observed. The traffic volume at a downstream point was analyzed after a bottleneck was created by the blockage due to the upstream congestion. A distribution model was estimated using observed-time headway, and the road capacity was analyzed using a goodness-of-fit test. Through this process, the general capacity and an equation for capacity based on the heavy-vehicle ratio passing through the work zone were presented. Capacity was estimated to be 1,181~1,422 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl) at Yeongdong, and 1,475~1,589pcphpl at Jungbu Naeryuk. As the ratio of heavy vehicles increased, capacity gradually decreased. These findings can contribute to the proper capacity estimation and efficient traffic operation and management for two-lane freeway work zones that block one lane due to a work zone.

A comparison and prediction of total fertility rate using parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian model (모수, 비모수, 베이지안 출산율 모형을 활용한 합계출산율 예측과 비교)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.677-692
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    • 2018
  • The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.