• Title/Summary/Keyword: global scenario

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IPCC 배출시나리오에 따른 지구 규모의 탄소 이동 연구 (Global Carbon Cycle Under the IPCC Emissions Scenarios)

  • 권오열
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.287-297
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    • 2007
  • Increasing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change has been perturbing the balanced global carbon cycle and changing the carbon distribution among the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, the soil, and the ocean. SGCM(Simple Global Carbon Model) was used to simulate global carbon cycle for the IPCC emissions scenarios, which was six future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change set by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations for four scenarios were simulated to continuously increase to $600{\sim}1050ppm$ by the year 2100, while those for the other two scenarios to stabilize at $400{\sim}600ppm$. The characteristics of these two $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios are to suppress emissions below $12{\sim}13$ Gt C/yr by tile year 2050 and then to decrease emissions up to 5 Gt C/yr by the year 2100, which is lower than the current emissions of $6.3{\pm}0.4$ Gt C/yr. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere was simulated to continuously increase for four scenarios, while to increase by the year $2050{\sim}2070$ and then decrease by the year 2100 for the other two scenarios which were $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios. Even though the six emission scenarios showed different simulation results, overall patterns were such similar that the amount of carbon was in the terrestrial biosphere to decrease first several decades and then increase, while in the soil and the ocean to continuously increase. The ratio of carbon partitioning to tile atmosphere for the accumulated total emissions was higher for tile emission scenario having higher atmospheric $CO_2$, however that was decreasing as time elapsed. The terrestrial biosphere and the soil showed reverse pattern to the atmosphere.

RCP 시나리오 및 전지구 수문 모형을 활용한 아시아 미래 수문인자 예측 (Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model)

  • 김다운;김다은;강석구;최민하
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제49권6호
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    • pp.551-563
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    • 2016
  • 기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC)의 4차 및 5차 보고서에 따르면 인류 활동에 의한 기후변화가 산업혁명 이후 급속하게 진행되고 있다고 한다. 기후변화는 주로 온도와 이산화탄소 농도의 변화로 감지되는데, 지난 100여년 간 지구 평균 온도는 $0.74^{\circ}C$ 상승하였으며, 대기 중 이산화탄소의 농도는 최소 800,000년 동안의 최대치를 기록하였다 (IPCC, 2007, 2014). 이러한 기후 변화는 수문학 연구에서 중요한 강수, 증발산, 토양수분 등에도 커다란 영향을 미치므로 이에 대한 꾸준한 연구가 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 아시아 지역을 대상으로 1951년부터 2100년까지의 주요 에너지 인자들에 대한 모의를 실시하였다. 전 세계적으로 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있는 Common Land Model을 미래 예측을 위한 기반으로 활용하였으며, 강제입력자료는 기후변화에 대응하기 위하여 IPCC 5차 보고서에 소개된 가장 최신의 온실가스 시나리오인 대표농도경로 (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP)를 활용하였다. 과거 기간에 대한 순복사량, 현열 및 잠열에 대한 검증은 Asiaflux 사이트에 속한 5개 지점의 자료를 활용하여 수행하였으며, 모든 인자들에 대하여 모형의 월별 경향성이 관측 자료와 거의 일치함을 확인하였다. 미래 기간의 모의에 대해서는 RCP 4.5 및 RCP 8.5를 활용한 모의 모두 순복사량은 거의 변화가 없었으며 현열은 대체적으로 하강하는 경향을, 이와 대조적으로 잠열의 경우에는 상승하는 경향을 나타내었다. 특히 RCP 8.5를 활용한 결과에서 이 증감폭은 더 크게 나타났으며, 2060년대 후반부터 순복사량과 현열의 변동성이 매우 커지는 등의 극한기후의 특징을 나타내는 것으로 보인다. 추후 연구에서는 본 연구를 토대로 다양한 시나리오를 활용하여 더욱 다양한 조건하에서의 에너지 인자 및 다른 수문학적 주요 인자들에 대한 모의를 수행할 예정이다.

GIS를 활용한 KMA-RCM의 규모 상세화 기법 개발 및 검증 (Development of Spatial Statistical Downscaling Method for KMA-RCM by Using GIS)

  • 백경혜;이명진;강병진
    • 한국지리정보학회지
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.136-149
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구의 목적은 IPCC A1B 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 따른 전지구 기후모형(global climate model, GCM)을 바탕으로 구축된 KMA-RCM(Korea meteorological administration-regional climate model)을 GIS를 활용하여 규모 상세화 기법을 개발하고 검증을 통하여 기후변화 시나리오의 불확실성을 줄이는 것이다. 연구지역은 남한 전역이며, 연구 대상 기간은 1971년부터 2100년까지이다. KMA-RCM의 규모 상세화 결과의 최적화를 위해 GIS 공간보간기법 중 기온에는 Co-Kriging, 강우에는 IDW을 활용하여 고도에 따른 기온 감율을 적용하였다. 최종 연구 결과로 총 1971년도부터 2100년의 월별 평균 기온 및 강우량이 도출되었다. 평균기온의 경우 130년 동안 $1.39^{\circ}C$ 상승하고, 강우량의 경우 271.23mm가 증가하는 것으로 파악되었다. 본 연구결과의 검증을 위하여 2001년부터 2010년까지 75개 자동기상관측지점(automated weather station, AWS) 실측자료와 동기간의 미래 기후예측값과의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 평균기온의 경우 상관계수가 0.98로 매우 높게 나타났으며 강우량의 경우 0.56으로 기온에 비해 상관관계가 낮게 분석되었다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 기후변화 시나리오 규모 상세화 연구에서 사용되던 GIS 방법론을 고도에 따른 기온감율을 적용하는 기법을 개발하였다. 이를 통하여 보다 현실성 높은 지역적 규모의 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 구축하고 이의 불확실성을 줄이기 위하여 연구를 진행하였다.

폐미분말을 원료로 한 저탄소형 재생시멘트의 CO2배출량 저감평가 (Evaluation of Reduction of CO2 Emission Achieved by Using Low-carbon Recycled Cement with Cementitious Waste Powder)

  • 권은희;안재철;박동천
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2014년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.250-251
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    • 2014
  • With the recent movement toward sustainable development, many efforts have been made to reduce environmental loads in various domains of industry. In particular, a great deal of research and technology development has been underway on approaches to reducing industrial waste and the emission of greenhouse gases. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of the reduction in CO2 emission that could be achieved by replacing limestone material with cementitious waste powder was performed in this study. Through the analysis, it was found that CO2 emissions were reduced by up to 50 percent compared with the scenario in which OPC was used, which suggests that it is possible to reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 5percent, or by 446.4 Tg of the 965 Tg of CO2 emissions generated by the cement industry, in the total global CO2 emissions of 19300Tg.

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Multinational Products for Consumer-Driven Global Sourcing Strategies

  • LEE, Jiwon;OH, Jae-Young;OH, Eunji;SHIN, Matthew Minsuk
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제17권8호
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This study aims to proposes a conceptual framework to segment multi-national products based on a Chinese consumer's perception of multi-national products, to find the role of consumer ethnocentrism (CET) in country of origin (COO) effects for Chinese, and to figure out how different dimension of CET Effects on purchase intention developed market and home country. Research design, data and methodology - This study selected a 2×2×2 factorial design for the hypothesis test based on the product category × combination of manufactured type × Ethnocentrism level. This study distinguishes products between luxury (Burberry) and non-luxury (Nike) products and choose combination of manufactured type (Spain vs India/ Spain vs China) in order to perform comparative studies. A total of 223 Chinese participated in the experiment. After being exposed to each scenario, participants were asked to respond to questions about brand preference and purchase intention Results - Regarding to luxury made in developed country, it is worth that exposing COO information to low level of ethnocentrism consumers. Regarding to non-luxury product made in emerging country, it makes it worse when COO information to high level of ethnocentrism consumers. Lastly, regarding to non-luxury product, patriotic consumers prefer to purchase product made in home country.

Global Scenario of Open Access Publishing: A Decadal Analysis of Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) 2003-2012

  • Pandita, Ramesh;Ramesha, B.
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2013
  • The present study aims to assess the growth of open access journals at a global level. The concept of Open Access (OA) publishing is being well received among academic circles and as a result we can see more and more scholarly content is being made these days available in open access format. The present study is simply an attempt to assess the trend and growth of open access journals during the last decade, viz. for the period 2003-2012, for which data has been retrieved from the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), which as of date hosts more than 9700 journals from 120 countries across the world covering major languages of the world. But keeping in view the period of our study the data has been retrieved as per our applicability, which as a result confines our study to 8453 journals only. The directory covers 18 main subject areas having 76 sub-disciplines, each having on average 118.53 journals. During the entire decade the number of countries which entered into OA publishing rose from 49 to 120 with a growth of 144%, and if this growth rate continues to be the same for the next five years, viz. by 2018, the world will turn into 100% open access. At the continental level Europe leads the tally by publishing a maximum of 3140 OA journals contributed by 43 countries across Europe, which again is the highest number from any continent.

Degrees of Freedom of 3-user MIMO Interference Channels with Instantaneous Relay Using Interference Alignment

  • Qiang, Wang;Yuquan, Shu;Minhua, Dong;Ji, Xu;Xiaofeng, Tao
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.1624-1641
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    • 2015
  • Instantaneous relay (relay-without-delay) using interference alignment is a promising approach to neutralizing interference and improving system capacity. In Wang Chenwei's work, a 2-user scenario required both source and relay to access the global channel state information (CSI). This paper shows a new method of interference alignment improves the degrees of freedom (DoF) prominently for the 3-user MIMO interference channel with instantaneous relay. This new method is focused on the relay node that completes the alignment interference neutralization so the global CSI is obtained only once and the pressure on the base station can be mitigated. In addition, the 3-user MIMO interference channels with instantaneous relay can achieve 2M DoF when source and destination have M antennas, respectively. This method shows 33% improvement over the conventional method using interference alignment which obtains 3M/2 DoF.

Spatial Changes in Work Capacity for Occupations Vulnerable to Heat Stress: Potential Regional Impacts From Global Climate Change

  • Kim, Donghyun;Lee, Junbeom
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2020
  • Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea. Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis. Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea. Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.

증강현실 기반 아동 학습 어플리케이션을 위한 실시간 영상 인식 (Real-Time Object Recognition for Children Education Applications based on Augmented Reality)

  • 박강규;이강
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2017
  • The aim of the paper is to present an object recognition method toward augmented reality system that utilizes existing education instruments that was designed without any consideration on image processing and recognition. The light reflection, sizes, shapes, and color range of the existing target education instruments are major hurdles to our object recognition. In addition, the real-time performance requirements on embedded devices and user experience constraints for children users are quite challenging issues to be solved for our image processing and object recognition approach. In order to meet these requirements we employed a method cascading light-weight weak classification methods that are complimentary each other to make a resultant complicated and highly accurate object classifier toward practically reasonable precision ratio. We implemented the proposed method and tested the performance by video with more than 11,700 frames of actual playing scenario. The experimental result showed 0.54% miss ratio and 1.35% false hit ratio.

기후인자의 변화에 따른 대청댐유역의 유출민감도 모의평가 - 4th IPCC 보고서의 결과를 기준으로 - (Sensitivity Assessment on Daecheong Dam Basin Streamflows According to the Change of Climate Components - Based on the 4th IPCC Report -)

  • 정상만;서형덕;김형수;한규하
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제41권11호
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    • pp.1095-1106
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    • 2008
  • 기후변화와 지구온난화현상은 지구 전체에 걸쳐 분명하게 나타나고 있으며 그에 따라 발생할 수 있는 수문 변화에 대한 연구가 다양하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 유역 유출의 민감도를 평가하기 위하여 SWAT 모형을 이용하였으며 대청댐유역에 적용하였다. 모형의 보정은 1982-1995년의 월평균 하천유량을 이용하였고 1996-2005년의 자료를 이용하여 검증하였다. 기후변화에 따른 수문 변동을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 1988-2002년을 기준시나리오 기간으로 설정하였으며 이산화탄소 농도, 기온, 강수의 변화에 따른 총 7개의 시나리오를 구성하였다. 7개의 시나리오 중 배증 이산화탄소와 기온의 5.4℃ 증가를 반영하는 시나리오는 연평균 4~5%의 하천유량 증가를 예측하였고, 강수량의 변화를 반영하는 시나리오는 -42, -17, 17, 42%의 변화에 따라 -55, -24, 25, 64%의 비선형적인 하천유량 증감이 예측되었다. 기후인자의 변화를 복합적으로 반영하고 있는 시나리오에서는 평균 12%(봄, 여름, 가을)와 63%(겨울)의 하천유량 변화를 예측하였다. 또한 유황분석 결과 대청댐유역의 유출은 기후변화에 매우 민감한 것으로 나타났으며, 이러한 기후변화는 가뭄과 홍수의 심도와 발생기간에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다.