• Title/Summary/Keyword: global scenario

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MODELING OF HUMAN INDUCED CO2 EMISSION BY ASSIMILATING GIS AND SOC10-ECONIMICAL DATA TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR OECD AND NON-OECD COUNTRIES

  • Goto, Shintaro
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 1998.09a
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    • pp.3-8
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    • 1998
  • Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change Is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and CO2 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set Is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Clamor and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and CO2 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.

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Designing a Global Budget Payment System for Oriental Medical Services in the National Health Insurance (건강보험 한방의료의 총액계약제 도입방안)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyun;Kim, Eun-Hye;Kim, Yoon-Hee
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2010
  • Objectives : This paper recommends a global budget based payment system for reimbursing oriental medical services in the national health insurance. Methods : We analyzed previous research outcomes related to oriental medical services and payment system We reviewed the experiences of other countries' global budget system in terms of their strength and weakness. In addition, we developed a reimbursement method for oriental medical services based on global budget. Results : Our reviews focused on global budget system of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Taiwan. The estimation of global budget in the national health insurance was described in two scenarios. First scenario was to allocate oriental medical services in scale after signing a contract for global budget. In this case, 4.16% of the national health insurance expenditure was allocated for the oriental medical services. Second scenario was to estimate the global budget in a historical context. As a result, the first scenario in total budget was higher than the second, and we proposed a retrospective adjustment method for the gap between the budget and the actual expenditure Conclusions : The payment system for oriental medical services is recommended to shift from fee-for-service to global budget.

A Sutdy of VTS Simulator Development using port specified scenario technology (항만별 맞춤 시나리오 생성기술을 적용한 VTS시뮬레이터 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Gyeungtae;Lee, Sangil;Lee, Younggeun;Park, Gwangbok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2013.10a
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    • pp.32-33
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    • 2013
  • In the past, the scenario of VTS simulator was made by instructor's manual operation using waypoint definition of target ship. but in this study, we use automatic scenario creation technology with AIS data and Port-MIS data. The created VTS simaulator scenario also can be modified, added, and saved by instructor's manual operation. VTS simulator display target ship on the Electronic Navigation Chart based on S-57 format. A instructor can easily open this scenario and start, pause, stop operation wirth VTS simulator. A new modification also can be applied immediately to current scenario and can be saved new scenario file. VTS simulator using this technology can create many scenarios for a specific purpose and can be easily used for various application fields.

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Generating global warming scenarios with probability weighted resampling and its implication in precipitation with nonparametric weather generator

  • Lee, Taesam;Park, Taewoong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.226-226
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    • 2015
  • The complex climate system regarding human actions is well represented through global climate models (GCMs). The output from GCMs provides useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. Especially, the temperature variable is most reliable among other GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change contain too high uncertainty to use in practice. Therefore, we propose a method that simulates temperature variable with increasing in a certain level (e.g. 0.5oC or 1.0oC increase) as a global warming scenario from observed data. In addition, a hydrometeorological variable can be simulated employing block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. The proposed method was tested for assessing the future change of the seasonal precipitation in South Korea under global warming scenario. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative to levy the variation of hydrological variables under global warming condition.

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Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models (기후모델에 나타난 미래기후에서 쓰시마난류의 변화와 그 영향)

  • Choi, A-Ra;Park, Young-Gyu;Choi, Hui Jin
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2013
  • In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

Forecasting the Environmental Change of Technological Innovation System in South Korea in the COVID-19 Era

  • Kim, Youbean;Park, Soyeon;Kwon, Ki-Seok
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2020
  • Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

The Effect of the Global Timber Market on Global Warming when Climate Changes (기후변화의 영향을 받는 세계목재시장이 역으로 지구온난화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dug Man
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.287-311
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    • 2008
  • This paper is designed to examine how the global timber market impacted by climate change would affect global warming through the carbon flux of forests. For this purpose, we integrated the modified TSM 2000 and the extended TCM in order to simulate the projection of net carbon release of forests from 1995 to 2085. On the basis of the simulation results under normal demand growth scenario, we identified that the global timber market impacted by climate change ameliorates the atmospheric carbon about 3.60% of carbon dioxide concentration in 1990 over 90 years. This implies that the global timber market impacted by climate change has a negative feedback effect on global warming over 90 years. For sensitivity analysis, we performed these simulation procedure under high demand growth scenario and very high demand growth scenario.

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Sustainable Environmental Science & Recycling Technology Education for High School and Middle Schools: Global Scenario

  • Thenepalli, Thriveni;Chilakala, Ramakrsihna;Ahn, Ji Whan
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-48
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    • 2019
  • Currently, the global atmosphere around the world is altering at a very rapid pace. Among those changes, some are beneficial, but most of the changes are lead to destruction to our planet. The area of environmental science is a significant resource for learning more about these changes. Due to the urbanization, the human population is increasing, natural resources becoming very limited. To solve the limited resources issues, recycling is absolutely an alternative source for the new demands and limitations. Recycling education is very important to raise awareness among students and their communities about the need for recycling and what materials are recyclable locally. In this paper, we reported the role of sustainability science and technology and the impact of recycling research education in the middle schools, both in developing countries and Asian countries and also we included the brief data of global recycling of waste.

A Study of Virtual Home Environment Implementation Scenario for Subscriber Privacy (가입자 정보보호를 위한 Virtual Home Environment 시나리오 보안 취약점 분석)

  • Jeong, Jong-Min;Lee, Goo-Yeon;Lee, Yong
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.21 no.A
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    • pp.117-122
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    • 2001
  • Currently, the VHE (suggested for global roaming user to provide personal service environment) implementation scenario is being proposed to realize 3G network requirements. However, developing VHE scenarios are focused on signal flow between node and network, and network and network. this case may result in weakness to protect subscriber's privacy in 3G network which commonly uses visited network. In this paper, we reanalyze a several VHE implementation scenarios for user profile protection, indicate a problem concerning user privacy, and finally, design a procedure to cope with vulnerability in VHE implementation scenario.

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Development of an Emissions Processing System for Climate Scenario Inventories to Support Global and Asian Air Quality Modeling Studies

  • Choi, Ki-Chul;Lee, Jae-Bum;Woo, Jung-Hun;Hong, Sung-Chul;Park, Rokjin J.;Kim, Minjoong J.;Song, Chang-Keun;Chang, Lim-Seok
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.330-343
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    • 2017
  • Climate change is an important issue, with many researches examining not only future climatic conditions, but also the interaction of climate and air quality. In this study, a new version of the emissions processing software tool - Python-based PRocessing Operator for Climate and Emission Scenarios (PROCES) - was developed to support climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling studies. PROCES was designed to cover global and regional scale modeling domains, which correspond to GEOS-Chem and CMAQ/CAMx models, respectively. This tool comprises of one main system and two units of external software. One of the external software units for this processing system was developed using the GIS commercial program, which was used to create spatial allocation profiles as an auxiliary database. The SMOKE-Asia emissions modeling system was linked to the main system as an external software, to create model-ready emissions for regional scale air quality modeling. The main system was coded in Python version 2.7, which includes several functions allowing general emissions processing steps, such as emissions interpolation, spatial allocation and chemical speciation, to create model-ready emissions and auxiliary inputs of SMOKE-Asia, as well as user-friendly functions related to emissions analysis, such as verification and visualization. Due to its flexible software architecture, PROCES can be applied to any pregridded emission data, as well as regional inventories. The application results of our new tool for global and regional (East Asia) scale modeling domain under RCP scenario for the years 1995-2006, 2015-2025, and 2040-2055 was quantitatively in good agreement with the reference data of RCPs.