• 제목/요약/키워드: global model

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전지구·지역·국지연안 통합 파랑예측시스템 개발을 위한 여름철 태풍시기 풍파성장 파라미터 민감도 분석 (Sensitivity Analysis of Wind-Wave Growth Parameter during Typhoon Season in Summer for Developing an Integrated Global/Regional/Coastal Wave Prediction System)

  • 오유정;오상명;장필훈;강기룡;문일주
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.179-192
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    • 2021
  • In this study, an integrated wave model from global to coastal scales was developed to improve the operational wave prediction performance of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). In this system, the wave model was upgraded to the WaveWatch III version 6.07 with the improved parameterization of the source term. Considering the increased resolution of the wind input field and the introduction of the high-performance KMA 5th Supercomputer, the spatial resolution of global and regional wave models has been doubled compared to the operational model. The physical processes and coefficients of the wave model were optimized for the current KMA global atmospheric forecasting system, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is being operated since April 2020. Based on the sensitivity experiment results, the wind-wave growth parameter (βmax) for the global wave model was determined to be 1.33 with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE). The value of βmax showed the lowest error when applied to regional/coastal wave models for the period of the typhoon season when strong winds occur. Applying the new system to the case of August 2020, the RMSE for the 48-hour significant wave height prediction was reduced by 13.4 to 17.7% compared to the existing KMA operating model. The new integrated wave prediction system plans to replace the KMA operating model after long-term verification.

베이지안 딥러닝 기법을 이용한 확률적 적설심 예측 모델 개발 (Development of a Stochastic Snow Depth Prediction Model Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method)

  • 정영준;이상익;이종혁;서병훈;김동수;서예진;최원
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제64권6호
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2022
  • Heavy snow damage can be prevented in advance with an appropriate security system. To develop the security system, we developed a model that predicts snow depth after a few hours when the snow depth is observed, and utilized it to calculate a failure probability with various types of greenhouses and observed snow depth data. We compared the Markov chain model and Bayesian long short-term memory models with varying input data. Markov chain model showed the worst performance, and the models that used only past snow depth data outperformed the models that used other weather data with snow depth (temperature, humidity, wind speed). Also, the models that utilized 1-hour past data outperformed the models that utilized 3-hour data and 6-hour data. Finally, the Bayesian LSTM model that uses 1-hour snow depth data was selected to predict snow depth. We compared the selected model and the shifting method, which uses present data as future data without prediction, and the model outperformed the shifting method when predicting data after 11-24 hours.

Analysis of Global Food Market and Food-Energy Price Links: Based on System Dynamics Approach

  • 김규림
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.105-124
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    • 2009
  • The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

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Vibration-mode-based story damage and global damage of reinforced concrete frames

  • Guo, Xiang;He, Zheng
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.589-598
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    • 2018
  • An attempt is conducted to explore the relationship between the macroscopic global damage and the local damage of shear-type RC frames. A story damage index, which can be expressed as multi-variate functions of modal parameters, is deduced based on the tridiagonal matrix of the shear-type frame. The global damage model is also originated from structural modal parameters. Due to the connection of modal damage indexes, the relationship between the macroscopic global damage and the local story damage is reasonably established. In order to validate the derivation, a case study is carried out via an 8-story shear-type frame. The sensitivities of modal damage indexes to the location and severity of local story damages are studied. The evolution of the global damage is investigated as well. Results show that the global damage is sensitive to the degree of story damage, but it's not sensitive to its location. As the number of the damaged stories increases, more and more modes will be involved. Meanwhile, the global damage evolution curve changes from the concave shape to the S-type and then finally transforms into the convex shape. Through the proposed story damage, modal damage and global damage model, a multi-level damage assessment method is established.

지구환경보전을 위한 도시설계의 전개에 관한 연구 -건축가 피터 칼솝프의 어바니즘을 중심으로- (A Study on the Development of Urban Design and Preservation of the Earth Environment -Focused on Peter Calthorpe's Urbanism-)

  • 곽동화;권영상
    • 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and to grasp Peter Calthorpe's urbanism through the process that is compared with various developments of urban design field for the preservation of global environment. From this study, Peter Calthorpe's urbanism for global environment is comprehended according to design stages. As a design goal, He seeks a green urbanism that puts emphasis on land use and transportation. As a urban planning, he devises urban footprint for the tool of evaluation and urban planning, and proposes five place types toward mixed-use development, and advocates Transect for eco-friendly land use. As a urban design, he devises urban network model for transportation network based on accessibility, and devises TOD and TOC model for preventing urban sprawl and mitigating carbon emissions, and advocates TND model for pedestrian-friendly space and community life. He makes importance of urban design. Because he thinks that integrative solution is required to global environment and urban design of integrative characteristic is suitable to preserve global environment. The results of this study are summarized as the followings: First, type classification of urbanism for the preservation of global environment and grasping purposes, methods, characteristics according to the types. Second, grasping characteristics and location of Peter Calthorpe's urbanism as a green urbanism. Third, proposing the direction of improvement for our urban planning and design.

스마트교육 환경에서 글로벌 학습을 위한 수업 모형 설계 (Design of an Instructional Model for Global Learning in Smart Education Environments)

  • 최숙영
    • 컴퓨터교육학회논문지
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2013
  • 최근의 국가간 정치, 경제, 사회, 문화적인 측면에서의 교류와 협력이 활발해지면서 글로벌 세계에 대한 인식이 점차 높아지고 있다. 이러한 글로벌 시대에 맞는 인재를 양성하기 위해서는 그동안의 국가 중심의 교육에서 벗어나 글로벌 시대에 적합한 교육으로의 전환이 필요하다. 최근의 스마트기기의 폭팔적인 보급의 영향으로 스마트교육이라는 새로운 교육의 패러다임이 등장하였다. 스마트교육 환경의 특징인 고도로 연결된 사회에서 활발한 상호작용과 적극적인 참여와 협력 등은 보다 효과적으로 글로벌 학습을 지원할 수 있게 하였다. 본 연구에서는 스마트교육 환경에서 효과적으로 글로벌 학습을 지원하기 위한 교수 학습 모형을 제안한다.

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Generation of Simulated Geospatial Images from Global Elevation Model and SPOT Ortho-Image

  • Park, Wan Yong;Eo, Yang Dam
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2014
  • With precise sensor position, attitude element, and imaging resolution, a simulated geospatial image can be generated. In this study, a satellite image is simulated using SPOT ortho-image and global elevation data, and the geometric similarity between original and simulated images is analyzed. Using a SPOT panchromatic image and high-density elevation data from a 1/5K digital topographic map data an ortho-image with 10-meter resolution was produced. The simulated image was then generated by exterior orientation parameters and global elevation data (SRTM1, GDEM2). Experimental results showed that (1) the agreement of the image simulation between pixel location from the SRTM1/GDEM2 and high-resolution elevation data is above 99% within one pixel; (2) SRTM1 is closer than GDEM2 to high-resolution elevation data; (3) the location of error occurrence is caused by the elevation difference of topographical objects between high-density elevation data generated from the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and Digital Surface Model (DSM)-based global elevation data. Error occurrences were typically found at river boundaries, in urban areas, and in forests. In conclusion, this study showed that global elevation data are of practical use in generating simulated images with 10-meter resolution.

전자무역 확산을 위한 글로벌 인증시스템의 개선방안에 관한 연구 -아이덴트러스 인증시스템을 중심으로- (A Study on Improved Global Certification System for Global Electronic Trade Expansion -Based on the Identrus Certification System-)

  • 김학민;최승신
    • 통상정보연구
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.265-285
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study has two folds. The first is to investigate current global certification system and the second is to suggest some possible solutions for expanding global e-trade networks. Both research and industrial communities recognize the importance of global certification problems in connection with global e-trade payment because global e-trade volume continue to grow. But not many research results have been reported to the communities in identifying some barriers against active global certification systems. This paper intents to suggest some possible solutions for improved global certification system and the results are summarized as follows: First, strict certification structure has to be relaxed by considering diverse mutual certification methods in global e-trade practice. This paper provides some comparative results about mutual certification methods among different nations. Second, numerous business models have to be derived such that they can be applied to other global certification applications than global e-trade. Third, global certified networks have to be expanded beyond mutual certification level. Once the certified structure among different nations have been established then diverse certified authority channels have to be implemented. Finally, since Korea has already established very good public certification infrastructure within the nation this platform has to be positioned in the center of global e-trade networks. This paper has of course to accept a critique such as this study provided limited results to generalized global e-trade certification model, and therefore empirical study for assessing robust model should be pursued in the future.

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보간과 회귀를 위한 일반크리깅 모델 (Generalized Kriging Model for Interpolation and Regression)

  • 정재준;이태희
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 2005
  • Kriging model is widely used as design analysis and computer experiment (DACE) model in the field of engineering design to accomplish computationally feasible design optimization. In general, kriging model has been applied to many engineering applications as an interpolation model because it is usually constructed from deterministic simulation responses. However, when the responses include not only global nonlinearity but also numerical error, it is not suitable to use Kriging model that can distort global behavior. In this research, generalized kriging model that can represent both interpolation and regression is proposed. The performances of generalized kriging model are compared with those of interpolating kriging model for numerical function with error of normal distribution type and trigonometric function type. As an application of the proposed approach, the response of a simple dynamic model with numerical integration error is predicted based on sampling data. It is verified that the generalized kriging model can predict a noisy response without distortion of its global behavior. In addition, the influences of maximum likelihood estimation to prediction performance are discussed for the dynamic model.

기상청 기후예측시스템 개선에 따른 월별 앙상블 예측자료 성능평가 (Performance Assessment of Monthly Ensemble Prediction Data Based on Improvement of Climate Prediction System at KMA)

  • 함현준;이상민;현유경;김윤재
    • 대기
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.149-164
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to introduce the improvement of current operational climate prediction system of KMA and to compare previous and improved that. Whereas the previous system is based on GloSea5GA3, the improved one is built on GloSea5GC2. GloSea5GC2 is a fully coupled global climate model with an atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice and land components through the coupler OASIS. This is comprised of component configurations Global Atmosphere 6.0 (GA6.0), Global Land 6.0 (GL6.0), Global Ocean 5.0 (GO5.0) and Global Sea Ice 6.0 (GSI6.0). The compositions have improved sea-ice parameters over the previous model. The model resolution is N216L85 (~60 km in mid-latitudes) in the atmosphere and ORCA0.25L75 ($0.25^{\circ}$ on a tri-polar grid) in the ocean. In this research, the predictability of each system is evaluated using by RMSE, Correlation and MSSS, and the variables are 500 hPa geopotential height (h500), 850 hPa temperature (t850) and Sea surface temperature (SST). A predictive performance shows that GloSea5GC2 is better than GloSea5GA3. For example, the RMSE of h500 of 1-month forecast is decreased from 23.89 gpm to 22.21 gpm in East Asia. For Nino3.4 area of SST, the improvements to GloSeaGC2 result in a decrease in RMSE, which become apparent over time. It can be concluded that GloSea5GC2 has a great performance for seasonal prediction.