• Title/Summary/Keyword: global estimate

Search Result 821, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

A Study on Characteristics of Eco-friendly Behaviors using Big Data: Focusing on the Customer Sales Data of Green Card (빅 데이터를 활용한 친환경행동 특성에 관한 연구: 대용량 그린카드 거래데이터를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Mi Sun;Kim, Jinhwa;Byeon, Hyeonsu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.151-161
    • /
    • 2016
  • As part of a policy to address climate change and pollution problem, the government introduced a green credit card scheme in order to motivate pro-environmental behaviors in July 2011. It is important to present the specific ways to facilitate pro-environmental behaviors using the consumer behavior pattern data. This study was a result of data from total fifty seven thousands customer purchasing history data of green credit card to be created for the 3 months from January to March 2015. As the analysis process is put in to operation the analysis of the purchasing customer's profile firstly, and the second come into association analysis to consider the buying associations for green products purchasing networks, the third estimate the useful parameters to affect the customer's pro-environmental behavior and customer characteristics. It shows that royal customers are from 30 to 40 years old and their incomes are from 30 million won to 40 million won. Especially, they live in Daegu, Gyeonggi, and Seoul.

Coping with Climage Change through Coordinated Operations of the Andong & Imha Dams (안동-임하댐 연계운영을 통한 미래 기후변화 대응)

  • Park, Junehyeong;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.46 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1141-1155
    • /
    • 2013
  • A number of studies have been performed to analyze climate change impacts of water resources system. In this study, a coordinated dam operation is compared with an existing operation strategy for coping with projected future runoff scenarios. GCMs (Global Circulation Models) and the LARS-WG downscaling method was used to project future climate scenarios. The water balance model called abcd was employed to estimate future runoff scenarios. The existing dam operation comes from the national dam construction guideline, which is called the "level-operation method." The alternative coordinated dam operation are constructed as a linear programming using New York City rule for refill and drawdown seasons. The results of annual total inflow in future is projected to decrease to 72.81% for Andong dam basin and 65.65% for Imha dam basin. As a result of applying future runoff scenarios into the dam operation model, the reliability of coordinated dam operation, 62.22%, is higher than the reliability of single dam operation, 46.55%. Especially, the difference gets larger as the reliability is low because of lack of water. Therefore, the coordinated operation in the Andong & Imha dams are identified as more appropriate alternative than the existing single operation to respond to water-level change caused by climate change.

Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data (양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구)

  • Shin, Youngchul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-25
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

Geographical Shift in Blooming Date of Kiwifruits in Jeju Island by Global Warming (지구온난화에 따른 제주도 내 참다래 개화일의 지리적 이동)

  • Kwon, Young-Soon;Kim, Soo-Ock;Seo, Hyeong-Ho;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.179-188
    • /
    • 2012
  • A kiwifruit cultivar 'Hayward' has been grown in Jeju Island where the current climate is suitable for growth and development of this crop. Prediction of the geographical shift in the phenology can help the kiwifruits growers to adapt to the local climate change in the future. Two phenology models (i.e., chill-day and DVS) were parameterized to estimate flowering date of kiwifruits 'Hayward' based on the data collected from field plots and chamber experiments in the southern coastal and island locations in South Korea. Spatio-temporally independent datasets were used to evaluate performance of the two models in predicting flowering date of 'Hayward'. Chill-day model showed better performance than DVS model (2.5 vs. 4.0 days in RMSE). Daily temperature data interpolated at a higher spatial resolution over Jeju Island were used to predict flowering dates of 'Hayward' in 2021-2100 under the A1B scenario. According to the model calculation under the future climate condition, the flowering of kiwifruits shall accelerate and the area with poor flowering might increase due to the warmer winter induced insufficient chilling. Optimal land area for growing 'Hayward' could increase for a while in the near future (2021-2030), whereas such areas could decrease to one half of the current areas by 2100. The geographic locations suitable for 'Hayward' cultivation would migrate from the current coastal area to the elevated mountain area by 250 m.

Meteorological Impact on Daily Concentration of Pollens in Korea (일별 꽃가루농도에 대한 기상영향)

  • Lee, Hye-Rim;Kim, Kyu-Rang;Choi, Young-Jean;Oh, Jae-Won
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.99-107
    • /
    • 2012
  • There has been increasing number of patients with asthma, rhinitis, and conjunctivitis due to the atmospheric pollution and global warming. In this study, we investigated daily observed number of pollens to establish a standardized method for the impact analysis of the climate changes on the number of daily pollens in Korea. Daily observed allergenic pollens of trees, weeds, and pine were analyzed during the period of 1998 to 2010 (except 2006) in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, Gangneung, and Jeju. They increased in large cities including Seoul during the last 12 years and the long-term trend may continue in the future. Daily concentration or amount of pollens was highly correlated with weather variables. Positive correlation was found between air temperature and the pollens although different relationships existed for different locations. Chill days were utilized to estimate the length of the flowering or pollen period. The pollen period of trees was shorter in the field when the winter temperature was low. This approach may be utilized to determine the quantitative change in length of the pollen season in the future.

A Study on Flame Extinction in Oxymethane Combustion (메탄 산소 연소에 있어서 화염 소화에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae Hyung;Kwon, Oh Boong;Park, Jeong;Keel, Sang-In;Yun, Jin-Han;Park, Jong Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.34-41
    • /
    • 2015
  • Oxy-methane nonpremixed flames diluted with $CO_2$ were investigated to clarify impact of radiation heat loss and chemical effects of additional $CO_2$ to oxidizer stream on flame extinction. Flame stability maps were presented with functional dependencies of critical diluents mole fraction upon global strain rate at several oxidizer stream temperatures in $CH_4-O_2/N_2$, $CH_4-O_2/CO_2$, and $CH_4-O_2/CO_2/N_2$ counterflow flames. The effects of radiation heat loss on the critical diluent mole fractions for flame extinction are not significant even at low strain rate in nonpremixed $CH_4-O_2/N_2$ diffusion flame, whereas those are significant at low strain rate and are negligible at high strain rate (> $200s^{-1}$) in $CH_4-O_2/CO_2$ and $CH_4-O_2/CO_2/N_2$ counterflow flames. Chemical effects of additional $CO_2$ to oxidizer stream on the flame extinction curves were appreciable in both $CH_4-O_2/CO_2$ and $CH_4-O_2/CO_2/N_2$ flames. A scaling analysis based on asymptotic solution of stretched flame extinction was applied. A specific radical index, which could reflect the OH population in main reaction zone via controlling the mixture composition in the oxidizer stream, was identified to quantify the chemical kinetic contribution to flame extinction. A good correlation of predicted extinction limits to those calculated numerically were obtained via the ratio between radical indices and oxidizer Lewis numbers for the target and baseline flames. This offered an effective approach to estimate extinction strain rate of nonpremixed oxy-methane flames permitting air infiltration when the baseline flame was taken to nonpremixed $CH_4-O_2/N_2$ flame.

Factors Influencing Chinese Customers' Selection of Health Care Service Countries: Focusing on Word-of-Mouth Moderating Effects (중국고객 해외의료관광국가 선택의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구: 구전 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Zhang, Jun;Lee, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.12
    • /
    • pp.41-52
    • /
    • 2015
  • Purpose - Given globalization, the new niche market of medical tourism is likely to experience sustainable growth for various reasons, such as aging populations and a shift in the medical consumerism paradigm toward prevention. Importantly, understanding medical customers' behavior is necessary to benefit from a competitive advantage in this industry. The existing research primarily accessed the key factors of medical quality and costs to explain health customers' behavior but is limited in terms of enabling an understanding of the decision process. This limitation exists because, given the intangibility and greater associated risks in the highly professional industry of international medical tourism, most customers lack the knowledge and experience needed to evaluate the central factors-such as the medical competence of health care countries-before purchases. Therefore, they actively search for useful information through various distributions to reduce uncertainty and to make better choices. Interestingly, most of these information channels are associated with word-of-mouth (WOM). However, no evidence is found in the literature to estimate the effect of WOM in the medical tourism field. Thus, this study focuses on WOM to explore its interaction with key medical characteristic factors and the attractiveness of destinations referred to by sources. This study also affects customers' evaluations and, in turn, influences their intention to seek health care services abroad. Research design, data, and methodology - The literature review addressed an interesting research model for estimating the relations among WOM, medical characteristics, attractiveness, and customers' choice intention regarding international health care. In the key economic regions in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong, 2,500 survey questionnaires were distributed to potential customers of different ages, education, and income levels. A resulting 1,717 (68.68 percent of the original 2,500) usable surveys were obtained for analysis. Moderated regression analysis was used to determine the effects of WOM in the decision process regarding international health care destinations. Results - The results indicate that WOM is a good moderator of the relationships between the factors evaluated by sources and customers. More importantly, the WOM effects reflect the factors of tie strength, credibility, and vividness. The results also reveal that, given the moderating role of WOM, the intention of potential Chinese customers to seek the referred health care country varies according to the medical characteristics of medical competency and reputation as evaluated by customers. In contrast, the travel attractiveness of the attractions, facilities, accessibility, and social environment are critical determinants of destination choice intention. Conclusions - The moderating role of WOM has been confirmed through the international healthcare destination selection process. Medical tourism managers should user WOM as an effective marketing tool for industry development. Specially, marketers should consider the effects of WOM determinants, such as tie strength, credibility, and vividness, to develop an effective strategy. Furthermore, this study estimates the factors that affect customers' selection of medical tourism destinations. Health care managers or policy makers should consider a broad variety of variables that may attract more Chinese customers to international health care.

Cognitive Characteristics of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Korean Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition: Focused on General Ability Index and Cognitive Proficiency Index (한국 웩슬러 아동 지능검사-4판(K-WISC-IV)에서 일반능력 지표(GAI)의 임상적 유용성: 주의력결핍 과잉행동장애 아동을 대상으로)

  • Goo, Min-Je;Oh, Sang-Woo;Lee, Sang-Yeol;Paik, Young-Suk;Lee, Ji-Hea;Hwang, Kyu-Sic
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.313-318
    • /
    • 2016
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical utility of the Korean Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (K-WISC-IV) and General Ability Index (GAI) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Methods: The GAI and Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) in K-WISC-IV were compared for a group of 79 children with ADHD and 234 normal children. The mean differences within each group were testified by the t-test and Cohen's d. The Wechsler's descriptive classifications for each GAI and FSIQ score were analyzed in the children with ADHD. Additionally, the critical value for the difference between the means of the FSIQ and GAI was calculated in the normal children. Results: The score on the GAI was higher than that on the FSIQ in the children with ADHD, with a mean difference of 2.19 points. The implications of these findings are discussed regarding the cognitive characteristics of the children with ADHD. According to Wechsler's descriptive classification, the application of the GAI showed a lower (7.59%), equal (61.65%) or higher (60.76%) prevalence of ADHD compared to the application of FSIQ. Conclusion: The implications of these findings are discussed regarding the cognitive characteristics of the children with ADHD. The GAI reflecting the attention and behavioral problems in children with ADHD could be utilized as an alternative global intelligence estimate that considers their potential for development.

Porewater Pressure Predictions on Hillside Slopes for Assessing Landslide Risks (II) Development of Groundwater Flow Model (산사태 위험도 추정을 위한 간극수압 예측에 관한 연구(II) -산사면에서의 지하수위 예측 모델의 개발-)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Park, Gyeong-Ho;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5-20
    • /
    • 1992
  • The physical-based and lumped-parameter hydrologic groundwater flow model for predicting the rainfall-triggered rise of groundwater levels in hillside slopes is developed in this paper to assess the risk of landslides. The developed model consists of a vertical infiltration model for unsaturated zone linked to a linear storage reservoir model(LSRM) for saturated zone. The groundwater flow model has uncertain constants like soil depttL slope angle, saturated permeability, and potential evapotranspiration and four free model parameters like a, b, c, and K. The free model parameters could be estimated from known input-output records. The BARD algorithm is uses as the parameter estimation technique which is based on a linearization of the proposed model by Gauss -Newton method and Taylor series expansion. The application to examine the capacity of prediction shows that the developed model has a potential of use in forecast systems of predicting landslides and that the optimal estimate of potential 'a' in infiltration model is the most important in the global optimum analysis because small variation of it results in the large change of the objective function, the sum of squares of deviations of the observed and computed groundwater levels. 본 논문에서는 가파른 산사면에서 산사태의 발생을 예측하기 위한 수문학적 인 지하수 흐름 모델을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 물리적인 개념에 기본하였으며, Lumped-parameter를 이용하였다. 개발된 지하수 흐름 모델은 두 모델을 조합하여 구성되어 있으며, 비포화대 흐름을 위해서는 수정된 abcd 모델을, 포화대 흐름에 대해서는 시간 지체 효과를 고려할 수 있는 선형 저수지 모델을 이용하였다. 지하수 흐름 모델은 토층의 두께, 산사면의 경사각, 포화투수계수, 잠재 증발산 량과 같은 불확실한 상수들과 a, b, c, 그리고 K와 같은 자유모델변수들을 가진다. 자유모델변수들은 유입-유출 자료들로부터 평가할 수 있으며, 이를 위해서 본 논문에서는 Gauss-Newton 방법을 이용한 Bard 알고리즘을 사용하였다. 서울 구로구 시흥동 산사태 발생 지역의 산사면에 대하여 개발된 모델을 적용하여 예제 해석을 수행함으로써, 지하수 흐름 모델이 산사태 발생 예측을 위하여 이용할 수 있음을 입증하였다. 또한, 매개변수분석 연구를 통하여, 변수 a값은 작은 변화에 대하여 목적함수값에 큰 변화를 일으키므로 a의 값에 대한 최적값을 구하는 것이 가장 중요한 요소라는 결론을 얻었다.

  • PDF

A Study on Stability Evaluation of the Nail-Anchor Mixed Support System

  • Kim, Hong-Taek;Cho, Yong-Kwon;Yoo, Han-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.41-70
    • /
    • 1999
  • The benefits of utilizing internal reinforced members, such as soil nails and ground anchors, in maintaining stable excavations and slopes have been known among geotechnical engineers to be very effective. Occasionally, however, both soil nails and ground anchors are simultaneously used in one excavation site. In the present study, a method of limit equilibrium stability analysis of the excavation zone reinforced with the vertically or horizontally mixed nail-anchor system is proposed to evaluate the global safety factor with respect to a sliding failure. The postulated failure wedges are determined based on the results of the $FLAC^{2D}\; 및\; FLAC^{3D}$ program analyses. This study also deals with a determination of the required thickness of the shotcrete facing. An excessive facing thickness may be required due to both the stress concentration and the relative displacement at the interface zone between the soil nailing system and the ground anchor system. A simple finite element method of analysis is presented to estimate the corresponding relative displacement at the interface zone between two different support systems. As an efficient resolution to reduce the facing thickness, the modified bearing plate system is also proposed. Finally with various analysis related to the effects of design parameters, the predicted displacements are compared with the results of the $FLAC^{2D}$ program analyses.

  • PDF