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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Comparison of Agricultural Traits and Physicochemical Properties of Lentil (Lens culinaris Med.), Chickpea (Cicer aretinum L.), and Guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba L.) Germplasms Collected from Tropical and Subtropical Regions (열대, 아열대 지역 수집 렌즈콩, 병아리콩, 송이콩 유전자원의 농업형질과 이화학적 특성 비교)

  • Choi, Yu-Mi;Lee, Sukyeung;Lee, Myung-Chul;Oh, Sejong;Hur, Onsook;Cho, Gyu Taek;Yoon, Munsup;Hyun, Do Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Breeding Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.453-462
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to investigate the utilization value of legume crops collected in tropical and subtropical areas. We examined agronomic traits to assess domestic adaptability and evaluated useful components of foreign legumes. We used a total of 201 genetic resources of three legumes, consisting of 68 lentils, 72 chickpeas and 61 guars. The average number of days to flowering of the three legumes ranged from 56.7 to 60.8 days; the shortest in guar and longest in chickpea. The average number of days to growth of the three legumes ranged from the shortest 86.8 days in lentil, to the longest 163.9 days in guar. The maturation period of the three legumes lasted from the end of May until mid-September, based on sowing in March. However, the average yield of lentil was very low, ranging from 0.5 g to 30.6 g, with an average 16.4 g based on 10 plants per accession. The average 100 seed weight of the three legumes was 2.2 g for lentil, 22.9 g for chickpea, and 3.8 g for guar. The crude protein content ranged from 14.1% to 32.4% with an average of 20.4%, the highest for guar and the lowest for chickpea. The average crude oil content in the three legume crops was generally low, ranging from 0.8% in lentil, to 4.3% in chickpea. The average dietary fiber content in the three legume crops varied from 15.7% to 50.7%. Guar was the highest source of fiber, followed by chickpea (19.3%) and lentil (15.7%). From the agricultural traits analysis, chickpea and guar could grow domestically. However, lentil was difficult to flower and fruit normally during the warmer season after May. Therefore, lentil should be considered for late summer cropping during the cool season. The physicochemical properties of the three legumes seem to be useful as they are similar to, or better than, those of the control common bean.

Influences of Insect-Resistant Genetically Modified Rice (Bt-T) on the Diversity of Non-Target Insects in an LMO Quarantine Field (LMO 격리 포장에서 해충저항성벼(Bt-T)가 비표적 곤충다양성에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Sung-Dug;Park, Soo-Yun;Chang, Ancheol;Lim, Myung-ho;Park, Soon Ki;Suh, Sang Jae
    • Korean Journal of Breeding Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.406-414
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to develop environmental risk assessments and biosafety guides for insect-resistant genetically modified rice in an LMO (Living Modified Organism) isolation field. In the LMO quarantine area of Kyungpook National University, the species diversities and population densities of non-target insects found on insect-resistant genetically modified rice (Bt-T), rice resistant to Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, and non-GM rice (Dongjin-byeo and Ilmi-byeo) were investigated. The Bt-T plants were, therefore, evaluated under field conditions to detect possible impacts on above ground insects and spiders. In 2016 and 2017, the study compared transgenic rice and two non-GM reference rice, namely Dongjin-byeo and Ilmi-byeo, at Gunwi. A total of 9,552 individuals from 51 families and 11 orders were collected from the LMO isolation field. From the three types of rice fields, a total of 3,042; 3,212; and 3,297 individuals from the Bt-T, Dongjin-byeo, and Ilmi-byeo were collected, respectively. There was no difference between the population densities of the non-target insect pests, natural enemies, and other insects on the Bt-T compared to non-GM rice. The data on insect species population densities were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) without distinguishing between the three varieties, namely GM, non-GM, and reference cultivar, in all cultivation years. However, the PCA clearly separated the samples based on the cultivation years. These results suggest that insect species diversities and population densities during plant cultivation are determined by environmental factors (growing condition and seasons) rather than by genetic factors.

The identification of non-synonymous SNP in the Enoyl-CoA delta isomerase 2 (ECI2) gene and its Association with Meat Quality Traits in Berkshire pigs (버크셔 돼지 육질 형질과 Enoyl-CoA delta isomerase 2 (ECI2) 유전자 nsSNP의 연관성 분석)

  • Hwang, Jung Hye;An, Sang Mi;Park, Da Hye;Kang, Deok Gyeong;Kim, Tae Wan;Park, Hwa Chun;Ha, Jeongim;Kim, Chul Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of International Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2018
  • Meat quality has always been one of the most important factors that controls the choice of pork consumers and is of great interest in the pig industry. In this study, we identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the enoyl-CoA delta isomerase 2 (ECI2) gene in Berkshire pigs (n = 430) by analyzed the association between the SNP and meat quality traits. The non-synonymous SNP in the ECI2 gene is located at c.608 C > G and resulted in an amino acid change from threonine to serine. Significant associations between the SNP and meat quality traits, such as redness (CIE a), and the $pH_{24hr}$, were revealed in both the dominant and co-dominant models, whereas carcass weight, drip loss, and fat content and moisture content were significantly associated only with the dominant model. In barrow, the SNP was significantly associated with CIE a, drip loss, and $pH_{24hr}$, whereas in gilt, only a significant relationship with moisture content was observed. GG genotype pigs had a higher $pH_{24hr}$ and lower drip loss. Because $pH_{24hr}$ and drip loss are considered the most important meat quality traits, GG genotype pork is high-quality meat compared to that from other genotypes. In conclusion, the SNP in the ECI2 gene is significantly associated with several meat quality traits. These traits and could be as genetic markers in molecular breeding programs for improving meat quality.

A Review of Ecological Niche Theory from the Early 1900s to the Present (생태적 지위(Ecological Niche) 이론에 대한 검토 및 제언)

  • Koo, Kyung Ah;Park, Seon-Uk
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.316-335
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    • 2021
  • This study reviewed the change of theory of ecological niche(concepts and definitions) over time to provide a theoretical basis for habitat-related studies of animals and plants. Accordingly, it analyzed and summarized the major discussion trends of ecological niche worldwide in each period from the 1900s to the present. Countries advanced in ecological studies, such as the EU and the USA, have conducted theoretical and empirical studies on the ecological niche since the early 1990s. The concept of the ecological niche was introduced in the early 1900s, developed in the mid-1900s, and advanced from the mid-1900s to the late 1900s. Since the 2000s, the advanced concept has diversified with new developments in technologies and research methods. The factors suggested by theoretical and empirical studies in defining the ecological niche of a species include 1) population dynamics of the target species, 2) all biotic conditions to sustain a population (food relationship and material flow in the food chain), 3) all non-biotic conditions to sustain a population (physical environmental conditions), 4) all direct and indirect interactions between these environmental factors, and 5) response and adaptation mechanisms that include the migratory ability of the target species or genetic diversity and adaptability to change. Unlike such international advancement, there have not been sufficient theoretical, philosophical, and empirical studies of ecological niche in Korea. The concepts and definitions by Greennell, Elton, and Hutchinson were selectively and partially borrowed for empirical studies without full description. Considering that the theory of ecological niche becomes the foundation for habitat-based species conservation and restoration, it is necessary to seek diversification and advancement of theoretical and empirical research and research methods and technological development. It will provide an important foundation for the academic advancement of ecology and for establishing and implementing policies to preserve and restore ecology and biodiversity effectively and successfully in Korea.

Annual Analysis of the Agronomic Traits of Global Wheat Germplasms in the Korean Environment (국내환경에서 밀 유전자원의 연차간 농업특성 분석)

  • Son, Jae-Han;Yang, Jinwoo;Kang, Chon-Sik;Kim, Kyeong-Hoon;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Jeong, Han-Yong;Park, Jinhee;Son, Ji-Young;Park, Tae-il;Choi, Changhyun
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.66 no.2
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    • pp.120-129
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    • 2021
  • Securing a range of wheat resources is of particular importance with respect to wheat breeding, as it provides a broad genetic foundation. Although wheat breeders have used different wheat germplasms as material resources in current breeding systems, the traits of most germplasms collected from foreign countries differ from the unique traits that have evolved in the Korean environment. In this study, conducted over a 2-year period (2018 and 2019), we therefore evaluated the agricultural traits 1,967 wheat germplasms collected not only in Korea but also worldwide. During the period from sowing to February, the average temperature in 2019 was greater than 1℃, whereas from March to June, the average temperature was approximately 0.9℃ higher in 2018. Compared with the growth recorded in 2018, the stem length in 2019 increased by approximately 20 cm in 2019, and there were notable differences heading date and maturation between 2018 and 2019. In 2019, the heading dates of 973 and 713 wheat resources were earlier and later than those in 2018, respectively. Moreover, stem length was found to be highly correlated with the heading date and maturation. In Korea, where the rainy season and tine of rice transplantation overlap with the time of wheat harvest, early flowering time with high grain yield has been the most important selection target with respect to wheat breeding. We anticipate that the findings of this study will provide would use a foundation for the selection of elite materials and the development of resource core-sets for Korean wheat breeding programs.

Inhibitory Effects of Prunus mume Solvent Fractions on Human Colon Cancer Cells (매실 분획물에 의한 인체 대장암세포 억제 효과)

  • Kim, Jeong-Ho;Cho, Hyun-Dong;Won, Yeong-Seon;Heo, Ji-An;Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Hwi-Gon;Han, Sim-Hee;Moon, Kwang-Deog;Seo, Kwon-Il
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.1227-1234
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    • 2019
  • Prunus mume, also known as maesil, is a popular fruit consumed in East Asia (Korea, Japan, and China). It contains high amounts of organic acids, minerals, and polyphenols and has been used as a medication for fever, vomiting, and detoxification. In this study, the anti-proliferative and apoptotic effects of solvent fractions from maesil were evaluated using sulforhodamine B (SRB) assays, morphological evaluations, Hoechst 33258 staining, and western blotting. Addition of the maesil methanol fraction (MMF) and the maesil butanol fraction (MBF) significantly and dose-dependently decreased the cell viability of HT-29 human colon cancer cells. Colony-forming assays confirmed that the MMF and MBF treatments decreased colony numbers when compared with untreated control cells. Treatment of HT-29 cells with MMF and MBF caused a distortion of the cell morphology to a shrunken cell mass. Treatment with MMF and MBF also dose-dependently increased nuclear condensation and the formation of apoptotic bodies in HT-29 cells. Treatment with MMF and MBF significantly and dosedependently increased the expression of Bax (a pro-apoptotic protein), caspase-3, and poly ADP-ribose polymerase (PARP) and decreased the expression of Bcl-2 (an anti-apoptotic protein). MMF significantly and dose-dependently inhibited cell proliferation induced by bisphenol A, an environmental hormone. Therefore, MMF may have potential use as a functional food and as a possible therapeutic agent for the prevention of colon cancer.

Genetic Environments of Au-Ag-bearing Geumhwa Hydrothermal Vein Deposit (함 금-은 금화 열수 맥상광상의 생성환경)

  • Lee, Sunjin;Choi, Sang-Hoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2021
  • The Geumhwa Au-Ag deposit is located within the Cretaceous Gyeongsang basin. Mineral paragenesis can be divided into two stages (stage I and II) by major tectonic fracturing. Stage II is economically barren. Stage I, at which the precipitation of major ore minerals occurred, is further divided into three substages(early, middle and late) with paragenetic time based on minor fractures and discernible mineral assemblages: early substage, marked by deposition of pyrite with minor wolframite; middle substage, characterized by introduction of electrum and base-metal sulfides with Cu-As and/or Cu-Sb sulfosalts; late substage, marked by hematite and Bi-sulfosalts with secondary minerals. Changes in vein mineralogy reflect decreases in temperature and sulfur fugacity with a concomitant increase in oxygen fugacity. Fluid inclusion data indicate progressive decreases in temperature and salinity within each substage with increasing paragenetic time. During the early portion of stage I, high-temperature (≥410℃), high-salinity fluids (up to ≈44 equiv. wt. % NaCl) formed by condensation during decompression of a magmatic vapor phase. During waning of early substage, high-temperature, high-salinity fluids gave way to progressively cooler, more dilute fluids associated with main Au-Ag mineralization (middle) and finally to ≈180℃ and ≥0.7 equiv. wt. % NaCl fluids associated with hematite and sulfosalts (± secondary) mineralization (late substage). These trends are interpreted to indicate progressive mixing of high- and medium to low-salinity hydrothermal fluids with cooler, more dilute, oxidizing meteoric waters. The Geumhwa Au-Ag deposit may represent a vein-type system transitional between porphyry-type and epithermal-type.

Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City's hydraulic facility design standards (서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Taesam;Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2021
  • In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

Breeding and characteristics of Uram, a New Variety of Pleurotus nebrodensis (백령느타리 신품종 '우람'의 육성 및 특성)

  • Ha, Tai-Moon;Jung, Gu-Hyun;Kim, Jeoung-Suk;Choi, Jong-In;Kim, Jeong-Han;Lee, Yong-Seon;Jeong, Yung-Kyeoung
    • Journal of Mushroom
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.88-95
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    • 2021
  • This study was carried out to breed new variety of Pleurotus nebrodensis. We have collected and tested characteristics of genetic resources from domestic and abroad since 2015. The varieties of P. nebrodensis from China are grown by farmers, but those have been unstable fruiting and are weak against bacterial diseases. To solve this problem, we bred the unique domestic variety 'Uram' of P. nebrodensis and the results of the characteristic test for the new 'Uram' are as follows. The proper temperature for the mycelial growth was 26~29℃ and fruit body growth temperature was 15~18℃. It was similar to the control variety KME65035 of P. nebrodensis in the pileus form of a flat and white color. The number of days required for initial fruting was 5 days for bottle cultivation and 6 days for bag cultivation which was 2-4 days shorter than that of the control variety. The pileus diameter was 32.6-37.0 mm which was smaller but the fruit body length was 130.4 mm, which was longer than those of the control variety. The effective number of fruit bodies was 1.8 in bottle cultivation and 2.9 in bag cultivation, which was more than those of the control variety. The yield rate was 93.3-100%, which was more stable than those of the control variety. In bottle cultivation and bag cultivation, the yield was 173.1 g/bottle (1100 cc) and 283.4 g/bag (1.2 kg), respectively, which was 25-44% higher than those of the control variety 138.0 g/bottle (1100 cc) and 197.4 g bag (1.2 kg). When incubating the parent and control varieties of 'Uram', the replacement line was clear and as a result of mycelial DNA RAPD-PCR reaction, the band pattern was different from that of the parent and control varieties, confirming the hybrid species.