• Title/Summary/Keyword: future trend

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Trend analysis of aridity index for southeast of Korea

  • Ghafouri-Azar, Mona;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.193-193
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    • 2017
  • Trend analysis can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in the area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. The results of previous studies in South Korea showed that southeast regions of Korea had the highest value of evapotranspiration. Thereby, it is of interest to determine the trend analysis in hydrological variables in this area. In this study, the recent 35 year trends of precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and aridity index in monthly and annual time scale will be analyzed over three stations (Pohang, Daegu, and Pusan) of southeast Korea. After removing the significant Lag-1 serial correlation effect by pre-whitening, non-parametric statistical Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trends. Also, the slope of trend of the Mann-Kendall test was determined by using Theil-Sen's estimator. The results of the trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration on the annual scale showed the increasing trend for the three mentioned stations, with significant increasing trend for Pusan station. The results obtained from this research can guide development if water management practices and cropping systems in the area that rely on this weather stations. The approaches use and the models fitted in this study can serve as a demonstration of how a time series trend can be analyzed.

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Colorectal Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Predictions in China, 1991-2011

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Dong, Hong-Li;Sang, Xue-Jin;Xie, Bin;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Jia, Xiao-Yue;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.17
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    • pp.7991-7995
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    • 2015
  • Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

A Study on Ubiquitous Environment and Furniture Design - Focus on Elements of Interior Design Trends -

  • Kim, Jong-Seo
    • Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.160-173
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    • 2011
  • Increased internet use under a ubiquitous environment may be called as a great human information space revolution followed by Industrial Revolution. This revolution is exerting its significant influence over all the industry as a whole with speed faster than that of any other times. Along with this trend, if furniture design field that leads living culture should fail to jump on this main stream without noticing it, it may be reduced to a unpopular field some day without any sign of recovery. Under this background, this study is intended to recognize a goal aiming at understanding our rapidly changing living environment and leading our way positively. Currently, our surrounding living environment is immersed in computers here and there and Mark Weiser once defined a system that moves in advance before an action as ubiquitous computing and in this respect, I am going to observe a detailed transformation process of space. First nature of the space may be defined as atoms, a physical space equivalent to a spatial element and Bits space that is untouchable is usually called as 2nd space and a combination of atoms and Bits is an intelligent space - 3rd space - that can be intelligible without touching it and finally, this space is called as a ubiquitous space. This spatial transformation is developed by several changes of living environment and we may call it as living trend or interior design trend. Transformation in terms of social perspective, space structural perspective and digital technique perspective may be enumerated. These transformations were surveyed based on its contents being implemented at a future housing exhibition hosted by 5 construction companies along with fusion of information furniture and furniture depending on each housing space. In conclusion, it could be realized that most of the companies were decorating future space by implementing ubiquitous environment as a success factor of future housing market. It may be meaningful to note once again that under an interior environment, a fusion of furniture and information furniture is required considering interior trend elements.

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