• Title/Summary/Keyword: future landslide hazard

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Application of Spatial Data Integration Based on the Likelihood Ratio Function nad Bayesian Rule for Landslide Hazard Mapping (우도비 함수와 베이지안 결합을 이용한 공간통합의 산사태 취약성 분석에의 적용)

  • Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo;Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.428-439
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    • 2003
  • Landslides, as a geological hazard, have caused extensive damage to property and sometimes result in loss of life. Thus, it is necessary to assess vulnerable areas for future possible landslides in order to mitigate the damage they cause. For this purpose, spatial data integration has been developed and applied to landslide hazard mapping. Among various models, this paper investigates and discusses the effectiveness of the Bayesian spatial data integration approach to landslide hazard mapping. In this study, several data sets related to landslide occurrences in Jangheung, Korea were constructed using GIS and then digitally represented using the likelihood ratio function. By computing the likelihood ratio, we obtained quantitative relationships between input data and landslide occurrences. The likelihood ratio functions were combined using the Bayesian combination rule. In order for predicted results to provide meaningful interpretations with respect to future landslides, we carried out validation based on the spatial partitioning of the landslide distribution. As a result, the Bayesian approach based on a likelihood ratio function can effectively integrate various spatial data for landslide hazard mapping, and it is expected that some suggestions in this study will be helpful to further applications including integration and interpretation stages in order to obtain a decision-support layer.

Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Significance and Future Direction for Designation and Management of Landslide-Prone Zones (산사태 취약지역 지정·관리 제도의 의의와 향후 과제)

  • Kim, Suk Woo;Chun, Kun Woo;Kim, Kyoung Nam;Kim, Min Sik;Kim, Min Seok;Lee, Sang Ho;Seo, Jung Il
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2013
  • The legal basis for the systematic prevention and response to landslide hazards, and the rehabilitation of landslide-hit areas, was established through the amendment of the Forest Protection Act in August 2012. The most noticeable amendment to the Act is the inclusion of clauses associated with the designation and management of landslide-prone zones (including debris flow-prone zones). In this paper, we (1) introduce the clauses related to the designation and management of landslide-prone zones that were included in the amended Forest Protection Act, (2) examine their significance by reviewing the present status of related domestic laws and structural countermeasures such as sediment check dams for sediment-related disaster prevention, and (3) suggest the future directions of the procedure for the designation and cancellation of such zones, and their maintenance and institutional aspects. The establishment of an institutional device for the designation and management of landslide-prone zones has great significance in the aspect of (1) the establishment of a comprehensive management and prevention system for potential landslide-prone zones in forested areas where the hazard risk has been poorly recognized as compared with the flood risks in lowlands, and (2) the establishment of the basis for overcoming the limits of structural countermeasures according to limited budgets. To develop the designation and management system for landslide-prone zones, not only must present problems be addressed, but a cooperation system between the administration and local residents must also be established.

Current and Future Status of GIS-based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Literature Review

  • Lee, Saro
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.179-193
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    • 2019
  • Landslides are one of the most damaging geological hazards worldwide, threating both humans and property. Hence, there have been many efforts to prevent landslides and mitigate the damage that they cause. Among such efforts, there have been many studies on mapping landslide susceptibility. Geographic information system (GIS)-based techniques have been developed and applied widely, and are now the main tools used to map landslide susceptibility. We reviewed the status of landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS by number of papers, year, study area, number of landslides, cause, and models applied, based on 776 articles over the last 20 years (1999-2018). The number of studies published annually increased rapidly over time. The total study area spanned 65 countries, and 47.7% of study areas were in China, India, South Korea, and Iran, where more than 500 landslides, 27.3% of all landslides, have occurred. Slope (97.6% of total articles) and geology (82.7% of total articles) were most often implicated as causes, and logistic regression (26.9% of total articles) and frequency ratio (24.7% of total article) models were the most widely used models. We analyzed trends in the causes of and models used to simulate landslides. The main causes were similar each year, but machine learning models have increased in popularity over time. In the future, more study areas should be investigated to improve the generalizability and accuracy of the results. Furthermore, more causes, especially those related to topography and soil, should be considered and more machine learning models should be applied. Finally, landslide hazard and risk maps should be studied in addition to landslide susceptibility maps.

The Evaluation on the Prediction Ratio of Landslide Hazard Area based on Geospatial Information (공간정보 기반 산사태 발생지역 예측비율 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Lee, Ho-Jun;Go, Sin-Young;Cho, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.113-124
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    • 2014
  • Recently landslide occurs frequently by heavy rainfall, therefore there area many studies to analyze the vulnerable district of landslide and forecast the occurrence of landslide. This study analyzed soil characteristics in the occurrence district of landslide and the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in well draining soil as the result of frequency ratio according to the characteristics of drainage. Also as the result of frequency ratio of slope derived from DEM data, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in slope range of $20{\sim}40^{\circ}$. And Also as the result of frequency ratio of aspect by geospatial analysis, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in north aspect. Also, it is possible to evaluate the vulnerability of landslide by overlapping frequency ratio of the drainage of soil, slope and aspect. And future prediction ratio of landslide occurrence can be evaluated by performing the analysis and validation process respectively on the subject of the occurrence district of landslide.

Landslide Hazard Evaluation using Geospatial Information based on UAV and Infinite Slope Stability Model (UAV 기반의 공간정보와 무한사면해석모형을 활용한 산사태 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Choi, Yun-Woong
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2015
  • The influence of climate change on rainfall patterns has triggered landslide and debris flow with casualties and property damage. This study constructed DSM and Orthophoto by using UAV surveying technique and evaluated landslide risk area by applying GIS data into the infinite slope stability model. As a result of the estimation of slope stability in a site, the slope instability has $SI{\leq}1.0$ with cover area 46,396m2, and the distribution percentage was 18.2%. The most dangerous section has $SI{\leq}0.0$ with its cover area 7,988m2, and the ratio was 0.8%. The reviews regarding the risk of landslide and debris flow risk by stability index and river channel analysis respectively help being able to designate the hazard zone due to heavy rainfall. Therefore the analysis result of this study will need to reinforce soil slope and plan their safety measures in the future.

Predicting Landslide Damaged Area According to Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 산사태 피해면적 변화 예측)

  • Song Eu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.376-386
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    • 2023
  • Due to climate changes, landslide hazards in the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea) continuously increase. To establish the effective landslide mitigation strategies, such as erosion control works, landslide hazard estimation in the long-term perspective should be proceeded considering the influence of climate changes. In this study, we examined the change in landslide-damaged areas in South Korea responding to climate change scenarios using the multivariate regression method. Data on landslide-damaged areas and rainfall from 1981-2010 were used as a training dataset. Sev en indices were deriv ed from rainfall data as the model's input data, corresponding to rainfall indices provided from two SSP scenarios for South Korea: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Prior to the multivariate regression analysis, we conducted the VIF test and the dimension analysis of regression model using PCA. Based on the result of PCA, we developed a regression model for landslide damaged area estimation with two principal components, which cov ered about 93% of total v ariance. With climate change scenarios, we simulated landslide-damaged areas in 2030-2100 using the regression model. As a result, the landslide-damaged area will be enlarged more than the double of current annual mean landslide damaged area of 1981-2010; It infers that landslide mitigation strategies should be reinforced considering the future climate condition.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.

Landslide Hazard Mapping and Verification Using Probability Rainfall and Artificial Neural Networks (미래 확률강우량 및 인공신경망을 이용한 산사태 위험도 분석 기법 개발 및 검증)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Sa-Ro;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to analyse the landslide susceptibility and the future hazard in Inje, Korea using probability rainfalls and artificial neural network (ANN) environment based on geographic information system (GIS). Data for rainfall probability, topography, and geology were collected, processed, and compiled in a spatial database using GIS. Deokjeok-ri that had experienced 694 landslides by Typhoon Ewinia in 2006 was selected for analysis and verification. The 50% of landslide data were randomly selected to use as training data while the other 50% being used for verification. The probability of landslides for target years (1 year, 3 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years) was calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by 1-day rainfall of 202 mm or 3-day cumulative rainfalls of 449 mm.

PREDICTION MODELS FOR SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS: Application to landslide hazard mapping and mineral exploration

  • Chung, Chang-Jo
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.9-9
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    • 2000
  • For the planning of future land use for economic activities, an essential component is the identification of the vulnerable areas for natural hazard and environmental impacts from the activities. Also, exploration for mineral and energy resources is carried out by a step by step approach. At each step, a selection of the target area for the next exploration strategy is made based on all the data harnessed from the previous steps. The uncertainty of the selected target area containing undiscovered resources is a critical factor for estimating the exploration risk. We have developed not only spatial prediction models based on adapted artificial intelligence techniques to predict target and vulnerable areas but also validation techniques to estimate the uncertainties associated with the predictions. The prediction models will assist the scientists and decision-makers to make two critical decisions: (i) of the selections of the target or vulnerable areas, and (ii) of estimating the risks associated with the selections.

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