• Title/Summary/Keyword: frequency forecasting

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Species Dominance of Tetranychus urticae and Panonychus ulmi (Acari: Tetranychidae) in Apple Orchards in the Southern part of Korea (남부지역 사과원내 점박이응애와 사과응애의 우점변화)

  • Choi, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Hyuk;Lee, Soon-Won;Yoon, Changmann;Lee, Sun-Young;Do, Yun-Su
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.415-425
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated population fluctuations in two mite species in apple orchards over 20-year period. The occurrence of two major mite pests infesting apple trees, two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae and European red mite Panonychus ulmi (Acari: Tetranychidae), was investigated from 1992 to 2011 in major apple-producing districts, including four to eight cities, in the southern part of the Republic of Korea. The 20-year trend revealed that more orchards were infested by T. urticae from 1992 to 1999, but thereafter P. ulmi became dominant. The observed mean density of P. ulmi was consistent, whereas that of T. urticae fluctuated during this period. The analysis of occurrence in four time periods reveals that the density of T. urticae decreased after 2002. The monthly sampling, revealed that the density of P. ulmi was higher in April, whereas the density of T. urticae was higher from May to August. This change may be due to a change in the frequency of pesticide spraying, ground vegetation management, a decrease in nitrogen fertilization, and the overall orchard management practices. However, this projection should be examined in more detail. On the basis of the findings of this study, it can be concluded that cultural practices, including fertilization, and environmental changes, such as pesticide spray frequency and integrated pest management practices, affect species dominance and population densities of the two mite species in apple orchards.

Hybrid Energy Storage System with Emergency Power Function of Standardization Technology (비상전원 기능을 갖는 하이브리드 에너지저장시스템 표준화 기술)

  • Hong, Kyungjin
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2019
  • Hybrid power storage system with emergency power function for demand management and power outage minimizes the investment cost in the building of buildings and factories requiring emergency power generation facilities, We propose a new business model by developing technology that can secure economical efficiency by reducing power cost at all times. Normally, system power is supplied to load through STS (Static Transfer Switch), and PCS is connected to system in parallel to perform demand management. In order to efficiently operate the electric power through demand forecasting, the EMS issues a charge / discharge command to the ESS as a PMS (Power Management System), and the PMS transmits the command to the PCS controller to operate the system. During the power outage, the STS is rapidly disengaged from the system, and the PCS becomes an independent power supply and can supply constant voltage / constant frequency power to the load side. Therefore, it is possible to secure reliability through verification of actual system linkage and independent operation performance of hybrid ESS, By enabling low-carbon green growth technology to operate in conjunction with an efficient grid, it is possible to improve irregular power quality and contribute to peak load by generating renewable energy through ESS linkage. In addition, the ESS is replacing the frequency follow-up reserve, which is currently under the charge of coal-fired power generation, and thus it is anticipated that the operation cost of the LNG generator with high fuel cost can be reduced.

Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

An Empirical Model for Forecasting Alternaria Leaf Spot in Apple (사과 점무늬낙엽병(斑點落葉病)예찰을 위한 한 경험적 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Cho, Won-Dae;Kim, Seung-Chul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.25 no.4 s.69
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 1986
  • An empirical model to predict initial disease occurrence and subsequent progress of Alternaria leaf spot was constructed based on the modified degree day temperature and frequency of rainfall in three years field experiments. Climatic factors were analized 10-day bases, beginning April 20 to the end of August, and were used as variables for model construction. Cumulative degree portion (CDP) that is over $10^{\circ}C$ in the daily average temperature was used as a parameter to determine the relationship between temperature and initial disease occurrence. Around one hundred and sixty of CDP was needed to initiate disease incidence. This value was considered as temperature threshhold. After reaching 160 CDP, time of initial occurrence was determined by frequency of rainfall. At least four times of rainfall were necessary to be accumulated for initial occurrence of the disease after passing temperature threshhold. Disease progress after initial incidence generally followed the pattern of frequency of rainfall accumulated in those periods. Apparent infection rate (r) in the general differential equation dx/dt=xr(1-x) for individual epidemics when x is disease proportion and t is time, was a linear function of accumulation rate of rainfall frequency (Rc) and was able to be directly estimated based on the equation r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$). Disease severity (x) after t time could be predicted using exponential equation $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$ derived from the differential equation, when $x_0$ is initial disease, $b_0\;and\;b_1$ are constants. There was a significant linear relationship between disease progress and cumulative number of air-borne conidia of Alternaria mali. When the cumulative number of air-borne conidia was used as an independent variable to predict disease severity, accuracy of prediction was poor with $R^2=0.3328$.

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The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

Development of a method to create a matrix of heavy rain damage rating standards using rainfall and heavy rain damage data (강우량 및 호우피해 자료를 이용한 호우피해 등급기준 Matrix작성 기법 개발)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Yoo, Jae Eun;Hur, Dasom;Jung, Seung Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2023
  • Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC's grade was higher than PERCENTILE's, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage.

Proposing Research and Development Activities for Utilizing the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (전구강수관측(GPM) 활용을 위한 제언)

  • Sohn, Byung-Ju;Nam, Jae-Cheol;Park, Seon-Ki;Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Yoo, Jung-Moon;Lee, Hee-Sang;Chang, Dong-Eon;Ho, Chang-Hoi;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Kim, Seong-Jun;Oh, Hyun-Jong;Park, Seong-Chan;Kim, Ju-Hong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2005
  • Extending the success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the spaceborne measurement of precipitation by Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is initiated. The GPM consists of a core satellite which will have a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a constellation of small satellites equipped with microwave radiometers. The GPM is inherently a global program. Responding to the GPM plan, many other nations are much interested in participating in the GPM team or simply utilizing GPM products aiming at the development of meteorological technology. Korea can fully function its role if Korea is selected as a CAL/VAL site for the GPM because Korea maintains a well-established dense rain gauge network (AWS), precipitation radars, and the Haenam super site for surface observation. In this feasibility study, the necessities of the GPM project in the context of academical and social backgrounds and associated international and domestic activities are investigated. And GPM-related core technologies and application areas are defined. As a result, it is found that GPM will represent a great opportunity for us because of its ability to provide not only much enhanced three-hourly global rain products but also very useful tools for the enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities, management of water resources, development and implementation of monitoring techniques for severe weather phenomena, agricultural managements and climate application. Furthermore, rain retrieval and CAL/VAL technologies obtained during the involvement in the international GPM project will serve as basic knowledges to run our own geostationary satellite program.

Regional and Sex Differences in Cognition and Wear Behavior Concerning Fine-dust Protective Masks during High Concentration Days (미세먼지 고농도 시즌 방진용 마스크에 관한 인식과 착용 행동에서 전국 지역별 차이 및 성차)

  • Lee, Joo-Young;Park, Joonhee;Baek, Yoon Jeong;Jung, Dahee;Ko, Yelin;Jung, Jae Yeon;Kang, Juho;Lee, Taekyung;Lee, Yejin;Song, Eunyoung;Son, Su-Young;Kwon, Juyoun;Kim, Sun-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.516-538
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    • 2020
  • The present study investigated regional and sex differences in knowledge, perception, cognition and behavior of fine-dust protective masks for periods of high concentration of fine dust in Korea. A total of 2,012 adults from seven provinces responded to the questionnaire. The results (all p<.05) showed that 78% of respondents considered pollution from China to be the greatest contributor of fine dust. Seoul and Gyeonggi residents more frequently checked fine dust forecasts than other provinces and consulted their smartphone applications to do so more than other residents. Jeju, Gwangwon, and Jeonla residents had less knowledge of KF 80, 94, and 99 masks than residents of other provinces. Gwangwon and Jeju residents had less trust in the effectiveness of protective masks than other residents. Females perceived themselves as unhealthier respiratory, more frequently checked the concentration of fine dust, trusted more the effectiveness of masks, and more frequently wore masks, compared to male respondents. Those who self-identified their respiratory function as poor, more frequently checked fine dust forecasting, and had greater knowledge of masks, which resulted in greater trust in the protective function of masks, and finally had higher wear frequency of masks for days with high concentrations of fine dust.

A Study on the Dietary Behaviors of Female Baby Boomers and the Needs for Future Perspectives of Dietary Life (여성 베이비부머들의 식생활 태도와 미래 식생활 요구도 조사)

  • Nam, Haewon;Myung, Choonok;Park, Youngsim
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.895-908
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to examine female baby boomers' dietary habits and their attitudes together with their needs for future perspectives of dietary life. Our aim is to use these findings as a basic data when forecasting for food-related industries or policy making. A survey is being carried out for a total of 358 female baby boomers and analyzed by SPSS 12.0. The following is a summary of this study. The average age is 52.6 years old, most of them graduated from highschool (63.1%) and had a nuclear type of family (76.1%). Only 39.0% is composed of housewives, others had either full-time or part-time jobs. Self-assessment of stress is not so high and only 8.1% are dissatisfied with their lives. 38.2% are either overweight or obese in terms of BMI, and most of them are non-smokers (97.2%) or non-drinkers (63.0%). Their mean dietary habit scores are $70.6{\pm}11.8$, and the scores show significant relations with their education levels (p<0.01), monthly income (p<0.01), life satisfaction rates (p<0.001), stress levels (p<0.001), smoking habits (p<0.05), drinking habits (p<0.05), regular exercises (p<0.001) and regular health check-ups (p<0.05). The rate of skipping breakfast, lunch and dinner are 18.2%, 1.1%, 5.2% respectively. The main reason for skipping breakfast is the 'lack of time'. With regards to the frequency of grocery shopping, almost half of the subjects (55.7%) said '1~2 times per week' and bought mainly raw food sources such as vegetables, fruits, and meats. The majority of the subjects (91.3%) report that they cooked meals at homes, and took about 1 hour of time. The subjects also point out that cooking was a bothering task, and only 46.4% would prepare meals at home, while others would rather eat out or eat convenience foods. The main reasons for not wanting meal services in the elderly welfare facility are because they didn't want to live such places (48.4%) and the meals are tasteless (31.3%). As for delivery meal services, 60.1% are aware of it, and 39.9% would consider using it in the future. Factors to be considered when using the delivery meal service are sanitation (43.7%), nutrition (28.7%), taste (18.4%), price (6.3%), and brand name (2.9%). This study is expected to be used as useful information when developing food-related strategies for baby boomers in the future.