• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권6B호
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• pp.605-612
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• 2006

본 연구(II)에서는 2002년 8월 집중호우시 낙동강 유역에 대하여 강우예측 신경망 모형을 적용하였다. 예측된 3시간 선행 강우량은 실제 관측된 강우량의 패턴을 잘 따르고 있었으며, 기존의 연구와 비교하여 선행시간을 감안하면 강우예측의 정확성이 향상되었음을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 동일한 유역의 실제 제방붕괴에 따른 범랑양상을 모의하였다. 이때 예측된 강우량 자료는 유역에서의 홍수량 산정을 위한 기본자료로 이용되었으며, 유역에서의 홍수량은 하도 및 제내지에서의 홍수범람 모의를 위한 경계조건으로 이용되었다. 모의결과는 실제 범람흔적과 하천에서의 홍수위 자료와 비교하여 잘 일치되고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통해서 집중호우나 태풍과 같은 이상강우의 강우예측에 대한 인공위성 자료의 실질적인 활용성을 제공하였으며, 위성자료를 이용한 강우예측 기법과 연계하여 국내 실정에 맞는 홍수유출 및 홍수범람 모형의 개발을 통합함으로써 홍수재해에서의 강우, 유출, 범람에 대한 체계적인 실무적용에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단되었다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.81-89
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• 1995

One of the most difficult problem to estimate the flood inflow is how to understand the effective rainfall. The effective rainfall is absolutely influenced by the condition of soil moisture in the watershed just before the storm event. DAWAST model developed to simulate the daily streamflow considering the meteologic and geographic characteristics in the Korean watersheds was applied to understand the soil moisture and estimate the effective rainfall rather accurately through the daily water balance in the watershed. From this soil moisture and effective rainfall, concentration time, dimensionless hydrograph, and addition of baseflow, the rainfall-runoff model for flood flow was developed by converting the concept of long-term runoff into short-term runoff. And, real-time flood forecasting model was also developed to forecast the flood-inflow hydrograph to the river and reservoir, and called RETFLO model. According to the model verification, RETFLO model can be practically applied to the medium and small river and reservoir to forecast the flood hydrograph with peak discharge, peak time, and volume. Consequently, flood forecasting and warning system in the river and the reservoir can be greatly improved by using personal computer.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.146-146
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• 2022

A flash flood is one of the most hazardous natural events caused by heavy rainfall in a short period of time in mountainous areas with steep slopes. Early warning of flash flood is vital to minimize damage, but challenges remain in the enhancing accuracy and reliability of flash flood forecasts. The forecasters can easily determine whether flash flood is occurred using the flash flood guidance (FFG) comparing to rainfall volume of the same duration. In terms of this, the hydrological model that can consider the basin characteristics in real time can increase the accuracy of flash flood forecasting. Also, the predicted radar rainfall has a strength for short-lead time can be useful for flash flood forecasting. Therefore, using both hydrological models and radar rainfall forecasts can improve the accuracy of flash flood forecasts. In this study, FFG was applied to simulate some flash flood events in the Taehwa river basin by using of SURR model to consider soil moisture, and applied to the flash flood forecasting using predicted radar rainfall. The hydrometeorological data are gathered from 2011 to 2021. Furthermore, radar rainfall is forecasted up to 6-hours has been used to forecast flash flood during heavy rain in August 2021, Wulsan area. The accuracy of the predicted rainfall is evaluated and the correlation between observed and predicted rainfall is analyzed for quantitative evaluation. The results show that with a short lead time (1-3hr) the result of forecast flash flood events was very close to collected information, but with a larger lead time big difference was observed. The results obtained from this study are expected to use for set up the emergency planning to prevent the damage of flash flood.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• 제4권
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• pp.11-19
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• 1993

The peak flood discharge at a downstream station and the flood travel time between a pair of dams due to a specific flood release from the upper reservoir are computed using a hydraulic river channel routing method. The study covered the whole large reservoir system in the Han River, Korea. The computed flood discharges and the travel times between dams were correlated with the duration and the magnitude of flood release rate at the upstream reservoir, and hence a multiple regression model is proposed for each river reach between a pair of dams. The peak flood discharge at a downstream location can be converted to the peak flood stage by a rating curve. Hence, the proposed regression model could be used to forecast the peak flood stage at a downstream location and the flood travel time between dams using the information on the flood travel time, release rate and duration from the upper dam.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2004

The purpose of the study was to construct a forecast system of flood inundation area at natural stream channels. The study built the system to interpret the flood inundation area in four stages ; constructing topography data around the stream channel, interpreting flood discharge, interpreting flood elevation in the stream channel, and interpreting the flood inundation and mapping. According to the result of the analysis, as for the characteristic of flood inundation around the area within the purview of this study, although there were areas where flood inundation over a bank caused a flooded area, the failure of the internal drainage in the ground lower than flood elevation caused more serious problems. Rather than the existing method where only the estimated flood elevation data is used based on the hydrographical stream channel trace model(such as the HEC-RAS model) to establish the flood inundation area, if the procedure introduced in this study was applied to interpret the floodplain, actual flood inundation area could be visibly confirmed.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.121-131
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 여러 가지 요인에 의해 발생하는 홍수위의 변화를 분석하기 위해서 홍수추적모형을 이용하였다. 과거 측량된 하상단면자료를 이용하여 모의수행한 결과 합리적인 경계조건 뿐만 아니라 당시의 하상단면에 대한 정확한 측량이 이루어진 경우에 가장 작은 오차를 발생하였다. 지류의 유입규모에 따른 본류부의 수위 상승 효과를 분석한 결과 본류 및 지류의 유량규모가 커질수록 잠수교 및 한강대교에서의 수위변화량이 상당히 작아지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 한강하류부 월곶에서 발생하는 조위의 영향에 대한 분석결과 본류 및 지류에서 평상시 유량규모의 경우에는 하류단의 조위의 영향이 상류부로 영향을 미치고 있었으나 계획홍수량의 경우에는 최대만조위가 발생하더라도 운동량의 영향에 의해서 상류부로 영향을 미치지 않고 있었다. 이와 같은 다양한 수리학적 요인에 의한 홍수위 변화량을 분석함으로서 좀 더 체계적이고 실제적인 홍수예경보를 수행할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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• pp.194-194
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• 2017

Flooding is one of the most serious and frequently occurred natural disaster at many regions around the world. Especially, under the climate change impact, it is more and more increasingly trend. To reduce the flood damage, flood forecast and its accuracy analysis are required. This study is conducted to analyze the accuracy of the real-time flood forecasting of a coupled meteo-hydrological model for the Han River basin, South Korea. The LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) products with the spatial resolution of 1.5km and lead time of 36 hours are extracted and used as inputs for the SURR (Sejong University Rainfall-Runoff) model. Three statistical criteria consisting of CC (Corelation Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and ME (Model Efficiency) are used to evaluate the performance of this couple. The results are expected that the accuracy of the flood forecasting reduces following the increase of lead time corresponding to the accuracy reduction of LDAPS rainfall. Further study is planed to improve the accuracy of the real-time flood forecasting.

• 물과 미래
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.115-124
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• 1992

상류댐에서의 홍수량에 의한 하류지점에서의 첨두 홍수량과 홍수 도달 시간은 수리학적 홍수추적방법에 의해 계산될 수 있다. 본 연구는 한강 유역의 전구간을 대상으로 시행되었다. 계산된 춤두 홍수량과 댐사이의 홍수도달시간은 상류에서의 방류계속시간과 바류량의 크기에 관련되어 있고 각 댐구간 사이에서 이 관계를 이용하여 다중회기모형을 제안하였다. 댐하류에서의 첨두홍수량은 수위-유량 관계식에 의해서 첨두홍수위로 변환될 수 있다. 그러므로, 제안된 다중회기모형은 상류댐에서의 홍수 방류량과 방류 계속시간에 의한 하류지점에서의 첨두홍수위와 댐구간 사이의 홍수도달시간을 예측하는데 이용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2006년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.918-922
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is development of operation model for flood control of multi-reservoir in river basin, which can provide the best decision of reservoir release in timely and appropriately manner using CSUDP. For verification and validation of the developed system, the Gum River Basin was selected, which has 82 rainfall gauging stations, 28 water level gauging and 2 multi-purpose reservoirs which can control flood. There was a successful simulation of the developed model and system, using the real-time data from the Han River Basin Flood Forecast Center. Specially, case study for '1995 flood was performed.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.85-93
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• 2001

The basic concept of the model is to minimize the error range between forecasted flood inflow and actual flood inflow, and forecast accurately the flood discharge some hours in advance depending on the concentration time(Tc) and soil moisture retention storage(Sa). Simplex method that is a multi-level optimization technique was used to search for the determination of the best parameters of RETFLO (REal-Time FLOod forecasting) model. The flood forecasting model developed was applied to several strom event of Yedang reservoir during past 10 years. Model perfomance was very good with relative errors of 10% for comparison of total runoff volume and with one hour delayed peak time.