• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.75-87
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• 2020

This paper aims to not only investigate the nature of financial security and its measurement, but also to compare financial security level in 629 listed companies divided into four different industries (materials, industrials, health care, and consumer goods) before building a theoretical framework and regression models to examine the determinants of financial security. By gathering 2,167 financial statements published in Vietnamese Stock Exchange during eight years from 2012 to 2019, with the support of STATA, the research results indicate that six different internal factors, which are liquidity, profitability, firm size, debt management ratios, asset management ratios, and cash flows, explain 77.7% the change of financial security ratio and 3.4% the change in sustainable growth ratio. Specifically, while firm size has a positive impact on sustainable growth ratio but a negative impact on financial security ratio, deb management and profitability have an insignificant influence on the financial security level. Furthermore, an increase in asset management ratios would result positively in both two dependent variables whereas a rise in sustainable growth and a decline in financial security ratio are expected to witness if there is an increase in cash flows.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.91-129
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• 2024

한국은행은 금융위기 이후인 2011년 법 개정을 통해 기존의 물가안정 이외에 금융안정 책무를 추가로 부여받았는데, 그 이후 장기간에 걸쳐 가계신용이 소득 여건에 비해 빠르게 증가해 온 결과 최근의 가계부채 상황은 소비와 성장을 제약하고 부정적 경제충격발생 시 위기 발생 가능성을 높일 수 있다는 우려가 제기되고 있다. 현재의 금융불균형 누증 상황이 앞으로 우리 금융·경제의 안정적 흐름을 제약하지 않도록 정부와 중앙은행이 더욱 유의해야 할 시기인 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 BIS가 중장기 경제안정화를 위해 거시·금융안정(macro financial stability)을 모색하고자 제안한 정책운용 체계인 통합적 물가안정목표제(IIT)의 국내 적용 가능성을 점검해 보고, 정책적 시사점을 도출해 보았다. 우선 VAR 모형을 통해 통화정책의 주택가격, 가계부채 파급효과를 살펴본 결과, 금융위기 이후 금리 인하에 따른 위험선호 경향이 뚜렷하게 증대된 것으로 나타났다. 또한 DSGE 모형을 통해 2000년 이후 2021년까지 약 20여 년간의 통화정책 운영 행태를 분석해 본 결과, 한국은행은 기준금리 결정 시 물가와 성장을 종합적으로 고려하면서, 가계신용 증가에도 일부 대응한 것으로 나타나 약한 형태의 IIT를 운영한 것으로 분석되었다. 다만, 금리평활화 계수가 매우 높게 추정되어 금리 조정에 상당히 신중했던 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 중앙은행 손실함수를 최소화하는 최적 금리준칙을 추정해 본 결과, 물가와 성장을 균형적으로 감안하면서, 경제 여건 변화에 대응하여 기준금리를 보다 적극적으로 조정하고, 소득 여건에 비해 가계부채가 빠르게 증가하는 경우에는 가계신용 상황에도 유의하는 정책이 바람직한 정책방안으로 분석되었다. 이 같은 연구결과를 고려할 때 BIS가 제안한 통합적 물가안정목표제는 중장기시계에서 우리 경제의 안정적 성장을 뒷받침할 수 있는 정책체계 대안으로 고려해 볼 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제45권10호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2007

The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in wives' financial management behavior according to variables related employment and income, and perceived economic instability of household. Financial management behaviors were constructed with 4 sub dimensions : investment, income expenditure, risk, and debt management behavior. The subjects of this study were 225 wives. Factor analysis and MANOVA were performed for data analysis. The results of this study were as follows : First, there were signigicant differences in financial management behavior according to variables related employment, i. e. employment state of wives and husbands. Second, there were signigicant differences in financial management behavior according to variables related income, i. e. monthly income, additional income, income stability. Third, there were signigicant differences in financial management behavior according to perceived economic instability of urban household.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제25권
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• pp.321-337
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• 2008

The house price rise suddenly is not only Economic stability but economic, mental state of a heavy burden to people. This paper is a house finance environment analyzed in this research about the rise factor of the house price and the result to present the plan to the natural disposition. The financial institute has an influence on the disguised demand extension of the house and The mortgage Lending in commercial Banks with the earnings as the stability high than the industry loaning. A house finance environment changes and will go from economic factor of the variety of the life style, the housing conditional according to the income level, a children education condition, and the population structure many this little. The disposition of the house need changes according to this and will have an influence on the house price. Necessary for a house market environment house policy of the market need which the consistency reflects so that we are suitable and is desired.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2023

The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the determinants of macroeconomic and institutional stability on the development of the global sukuk market by controlling the effects of population. This study uses panel data namely GDP per-capita, exchange rate, and inflation as the proxies for macroeconomic stability sourced from the World Development Index, and six dimensions of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as institutional proxies sourced from WGI-World Bank. To make robust the relationship between macroeconomics and institutional on the global sukuk market, the population (POP) variable was included as a control variable. The development of sukuk uses a proxy for sukuk issuance in the International Islamic Financial Market, for the annual period from 2002-2017. The data was analyzed using the General Method of Moment, and the results show that by controlling the population effects that proved to be significant, GDP per-capita and the rule of law have a significant impact on the development of sukuk, especially when incorporating population effects as control variables, whereby further ascertaining the effect of each macroeconomic-stability variable and institutional stability on sukuk development, especially inflation, found not to affect sukuk development. These results also confirm the previous findings, whereby inflation remains controllable at a certain level for economic development.

• 산학경영연구
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.179-196
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• 2005

본 연구는 관리종목으로 지정된 기업과 동종산업내 관리종목으로 지정되지 않은 기업이 재무적으로 다른 특성이 있는지를 조사한다. 상장기업의 관리종목지정과 관련하여 본 연구에서는 관리종목으로 지정된 기업이 관리종목 지정전에 동종산업내 관리종목으로 지정되지 않은 기업보다 재무적으로 볼 때 더 취약하고 재무상태가 더 악화된 상태에 있다는 가설을 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 외환 위기를 전후한 1991년부터 1999년까지의 기간동안 관리종목으로 지정된 기업을, 그리고 동종산업내 자산규모가 비슷한 기업 중 관리종목으로 지정되지 않은 기업을 쌍대표본추출법에 의하여 표본으로 선정한다. 관리종목으로 지정되기 5년 전부터 1년 전(관리종목지정전 직전년도)까지의 두 기업간 수익성, 성장성, 안정성, 유동성 및 활동성을 나타내는 재무변수의 차이를 분석한다. 분석결과 관리종목으로 지정된 기업의 재무적인 특성이 동종산업내 관리종목으로 지정되지 않은 기업보다 수익성, 안정성 및 활동성에서 관리종목지정전 5년동안 유의한 차이를 보여 주지만 성장성에서는 유의한 차이가 없다. 유동성에서는 관리종목지정 5년 전부터 2년 전까지는 작은 차이를 보이다가 1년 전에 큰 차이를 나타낸다. 따라서 수익성, 안정성, 활동성 및 유동성을 나타내는 재무적 특성요인이 상장기업의 관리종목 지정에 영향을 미친다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.337-344
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• 2020

Stability and sustainability of the biggest banks in any country are extremely important. When big banks become unstable and vulnerable, they typically stop lending. The resulting credit squeeze pushes the economy into recession or a slow growth path. The present study examines the financial stability and sustainability of the 30 large banks operating in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. These banks represent 70% of the GCC banking market. Monte Carlo simulation was attempted assuming that key drivers can vary randomly by twenty percent on either side of the current values. The conclusions are drawn based on 300 simulation trails of the five-year forecast balance and income statement of each bank. Year 2020 is not favorable for the GCC countries because of the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices, though the future years may be better. The study identifies several banks, which may become financially unsustainable because the simulations indicate the possibility of negative profitability, unacceptably low capital ratios and potential for heavy credit losses during periods of economic turbulence, which is the current situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Through simulation the paper is able to throw light on which factors lead to bank instability and weakness.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.97-110
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• 2023

본 연구는 거시경제 충격이 우리나라 해운기업 안정성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 우리나라 해운기업의 부실 발생 빈도가 상대적으로 적다는 점을 고려하여 퍼스로짓모형을 통해 해운기업의 부실 확률을 추정하였다. 부실 예측모형 추정 결과, 총자산은 부실 확률과 음의 상관관계를 지닌 것으로 나타난 한편, 총부채는 부실 확률과 유의한 양의 상관관계가 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 부실 예측모형 추정결과를 바탕으로 총매출, 총자산 및 총부채 충격이 해운기업 부실 확률에 미치는 영향을 스트레스 테스트하였다. 스트레스 테스트 결과, 매출 및 총자산 감소는 해운기업의 재무 안정성을 크게 악화시키는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.