• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial machine learning

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Compromising Multiple Objectives in Production Scheduling: A Data Mining Approach

  • Hwang, Wook-Yeon;Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2014
  • In multi-objective scheduling problems, the objectives are usually in conflict. To obtain a satisfactory compromise and resolve the issue of NP-hardness, most existing works have suggested employing meta-heuristic methods, such as genetic algorithms. In this research, we propose a novel data-driven approach for generating a single solution that compromises multiple rules pursuing different objectives. The proposed method uses a data mining technique, namely, random forests, in order to extract the logics of several historic schedules and aggregate those. Since it involves learning predictive models, future schedules with the same previous objectives can be easily and quickly obtained by applying new production data into the models. The proposed approach is illustrated with a simulation study, where it appears to successfully produce a new solution showing balanced scheduling performances.

Predicting Future ESG Performance using Past Corporate Financial Information: Application of Deep Neural Networks (심층신경망을 활용한 데이터 기반 ESG 성과 예측에 관한 연구: 기업 재무 정보를 중심으로)

  • Min-Seung Kim;Seung-Hwan Moon;Sungwon Choi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2023
  • Corporate ESG performance (environmental, social, and corporate governance) reflecting a company's strategic sustainability has emerged as one of the main factors in today's investment decisions. The traditional ESG performance rating process is largely performed in a qualitative and subjective manner based on the institution-specific criteria, entailing limitations in reliability, predictability, and timeliness when making investment decisions. This study attempted to predict the corporate ESG rating through automated machine learning based on quantitative and disclosed corporate financial information. Using 12 types (21,360 cases) of market-disclosed financial information and 1,780 ESG measures available through the Korea Institute of Corporate Governance and Sustainability during 2019 to 2021, we suggested a deep neural network prediction model. Our model yielded about 86% of accurate classification performance in predicting ESG rating, showing better performance than other comparative models. This study contributed the literature in a way that the model achieved relatively accurate ESG rating predictions through an automated process using quantitative and publicly available corporate financial information. In terms of practical implications, the general investors can benefit from the prediction accuracy and time efficiency of our proposed model with nominal cost. In addition, this study can be expanded by accumulating more Korean and international data and by developing a more robust and complex model in the future.

Predicting the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index Using an Ensemble Neural Network Model (통합적인 인공 신경망 모델을 이용한 발틱운임지수 예측)

  • SU MIAO
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2023
  • The maritime industry is playing an increasingly vital part in global economic expansion. Specifically, the Baltic Dry Index is highly correlated with global commodity prices. Hence, the importance of BDI prediction research increases. But, since the global situation has become more volatile, it has become methodologically more difficult to predict the BDI accurately. This paper proposes an integrated machine-learning strategy for accurately forecasting BDI trends. This study combines the benefits of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) for research on prediction. We collected daily BDI data for over 27 years for model fitting. The research findings indicate that CNN successfully extracts BDI data features. On this basis, LSTM predicts BDI accurately. Model R2 attains 94.7 percent. Our research offers a novel, machine-learning-integrated approach to the field of shipping economic indicators research. In addition, this study provides a foundation for risk management decision-making in the fields of shipping institutions and financial investment.

Object detection in financial reporting documents for subsequent recognition

  • Sokerin, Petr;Volkova, Alla;Kushnarev, Kirill
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2021
  • Document page segmentation is an important step in building a quality optical character recognition module. The study examined already existing work on the topic of page segmentation and focused on the development of a segmentation model that has greater functional significance for application in an organization, as well as broad capabilities for managing the quality of the model. The main problems of document segmentation were highlighted, which include a complex background of intersecting objects. As classes for detection, not only classic text, table and figure were selected, but also additional types, such as signature, logo and table without borders (or with partially missing borders). This made it possible to pose a non-trivial task of detecting non-standard document elements. The authors compared existing neural network architectures for object detection based on published research data. The most suitable architecture was RetinaNet. To ensure the possibility of quality control of the model, a method based on neural network modeling using the RetinaNet architecture is proposed. During the study, several models were built, the quality of which was assessed on the test sample using the Mean average Precision metric. The best result among the constructed algorithms was shown by a model that includes four neural networks: the focus of the first neural network on detecting tables and tables without borders, the second - seals and signatures, the third - pictures and logos, and the fourth - text. As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that the approach based on four neural networks showed the best results in accordance with the objectives of the study on the test sample in the context of most classes of detection. The method proposed in the article can be used to recognize other objects. A promising direction in which the analysis can be continued is the segmentation of tables; the areas of the table that differ in function will act as classes: heading, cell with a name, cell with data, empty cell.

A study on improving the accuracy of machine learning models through the use of non-financial information in predicting the Closure of operator using electronic payment service (전자결제서비스 이용 사업자 폐업 예측에서 비재무정보 활용을 통한 머신러닝 모델의 정확도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Hyunjeong Gong;Eugene Hwang;Sunghyuk Park
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.361-381
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    • 2023
  • Research on corporate bankruptcy prediction has been focused on financial information. Since the company's financial information is updated quarterly, there is a problem that timeliness is insufficient in predicting the possibility of a company's business closure in real time. Evaluated companies that want to improve this need a method of judging the soundness of a company that uses information other than financial information to judge the soundness of a target company. To this end, as information technology has made it easier to collect non-financial information about companies, research has been conducted to apply additional variables and various methodologies other than financial information to predict corporate bankruptcy. It has become an important research task to determine whether it has an effect. In this study, we examined the impact of electronic payment-related information, which constitutes non-financial information, when predicting the closure of business operators using electronic payment service and examined the difference in closure prediction accuracy according to the combination of financial and non-financial information. Specifically, three research models consisting of a financial information model, a non-financial information model, and a combined model were designed, and the closure prediction accuracy was confirmed with six algorithms including the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm. The model combining financial and non-financial information showed the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the non-financial information model and the financial information model in order. As for the prediction accuracy of business closure by algorithm, XGBoost showed the highest prediction accuracy among the six algorithms. As a result of examining the relative importance of a total of 87 variables used to predict business closure, it was confirmed that more than 70% of the top 20 variables that had a significant impact on the prediction of business closure were non-financial information. Through this, it was confirmed that electronic payment-related information of non-financial information is an important variable in predicting business closure, and the possibility of using non-financial information as an alternative to financial information was also examined. Based on this study, the importance of collecting and utilizing non-financial information as information that can predict business closure is recognized, and a plan to utilize it for corporate decision-making is also proposed.

KB-BERT: Training and Application of Korean Pre-trained Language Model in Financial Domain (KB-BERT: 금융 특화 한국어 사전학습 언어모델과 그 응용)

  • Kim, Donggyu;Lee, Dongwook;Park, Jangwon;Oh, Sungwoo;Kwon, Sungjun;Lee, Inyong;Choi, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.191-206
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    • 2022
  • Recently, it is a de-facto approach to utilize a pre-trained language model(PLM) to achieve the state-of-the-art performance for various natural language tasks(called downstream tasks) such as sentiment analysis and question answering. However, similar to any other machine learning method, PLM tends to depend on the data distribution seen during the training phase and shows worse performance on the unseen (Out-of-Distribution) domain. Due to the aforementioned reason, there have been many efforts to develop domain-specified PLM for various fields such as medical and legal industries. In this paper, we discuss the training of a finance domain-specified PLM for the Korean language and its applications. Our finance domain-specified PLM, KB-BERT, is trained on a carefully curated financial corpus that includes domain-specific documents such as financial reports. We provide extensive performance evaluation results on three natural language tasks, topic classification, sentiment analysis, and question answering. Compared to the state-of-the-art Korean PLM models such as KoELECTRA and KLUE-RoBERTa, KB-BERT shows comparable performance on general datasets based on common corpora like Wikipedia and news articles. Moreover, KB-BERT outperforms compared models on finance domain datasets that require finance-specific knowledge to solve given problems.

A Checklist to Improve the Fairness in AI Financial Service: Focused on the AI-based Credit Scoring Service (인공지능 기반 금융서비스의 공정성 확보를 위한 체크리스트 제안: 인공지능 기반 개인신용평가를 중심으로)

  • Kim, HaYeong;Heo, JeongYun;Kwon, Hochang
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.259-278
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    • 2022
  • With the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI), various AI-based services are expanding in the financial sector such as service recommendation, automated customer response, fraud detection system(FDS), credit scoring services, etc. At the same time, problems related to reliability and unexpected social controversy are also occurring due to the nature of data-based machine learning. The need Based on this background, this study aimed to contribute to improving trust in AI-based financial services by proposing a checklist to secure fairness in AI-based credit scoring services which directly affects consumers' financial life. Among the key elements of trustworthy AI like transparency, safety, accountability, and fairness, fairness was selected as the subject of the study so that everyone could enjoy the benefits of automated algorithms from the perspective of inclusive finance without social discrimination. We divided the entire fairness related operation process into three areas like data, algorithms, and user areas through literature research. For each area, we constructed four detailed considerations for evaluation resulting in 12 checklists. The relative importance and priority of the categories were evaluated through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We use three different groups: financial field workers, artificial intelligence field workers, and general users which represent entire financial stakeholders. According to the importance of each stakeholder, three groups were classified and analyzed, and from a practical perspective, specific checks such as feasibility verification for using learning data and non-financial information and monitoring new inflow data were identified. Moreover, financial consumers in general were found to be highly considerate of the accuracy of result analysis and bias checks. We expect this result could contribute to the design and operation of fair AI-based financial services.

Online news-based stock price forecasting considering homogeneity in the industrial sector (산업군 내 동질성을 고려한 온라인 뉴스 기반 주가예측)

  • Seong, Nohyoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.

AutoML Machine Learning-Based for Detecting Qshing Attacks Malicious URL Classification Technology Research and Service Implementation (큐싱 공격 탐지를 위한 AutoML 머신러닝 기반 악성 URL 분류 기술 연구 및 서비스 구현)

  • Dong-Young Kim;Gi-Seong Hwang
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2024
  • In recent trends, there has been an increase in 'Qshing' attacks, a hybrid form of phishing that exploits fake QR (Quick Response) codes impersonating government agencies to steal personal and financial information. Particularly, this attack method is characterized by its stealthiness, as victims can be redirected to phishing pages or led to download malicious software simply by scanning a QR code, making it difficult for them to realize they have been targeted. In this paper, we have developed a classification technique utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify the maliciousness of URLs embedded in QR codes, and we have explored ways to integrate this with existing QR code readers. To this end, we constructed a dataset from 128,587 malicious URLs and 428,102 benign URLs, extracting 35 different features such as protocol and parameters, and used AutoML to identify the optimal algorithm and hyperparameters, achieving an accuracy of approximately 87.37%. Following this, we designed the integration of the trained classification model with existing QR code readers to implement a service capable of countering Qshing attacks. In conclusion, our findings confirm that deriving an optimized algorithm for classifying malicious URLs in QR codes and integrating it with existing QR code readers presents a viable solution to combat Qshing attacks.

Rare Malware Classification Using Memory Augmented Neural Networks (메모리 추가 신경망을 이용한 희소 악성코드 분류)

  • Kang, Min Chul;Kim, Huy Kang
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.847-857
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    • 2018
  • As the number of malicious code increases steeply, cyber attack victims targeting corporations, public institutions, financial institutions, hospitals are also increasing. Accordingly, academia and security industry are conducting various researches on malicious code detection. In recent years, there have been a lot of researches using machine learning techniques including deep learning. In the case of research using Convolutional Neural Network, ResNet, etc. for classification of malicious code, it can be confirmed that the performance improvement is higher than the existing classification method. However, one of the characteristics of the target attack is that it is custom malicious code that makes it operate only for a specific company, so it is not a form spreading widely to a large number of users. Since there are not many malicious codes of this kind, it is difficult to apply the previously studied machine learning or deep learning techniques. In this paper, we propose a method to classify malicious codes when the amount of samples is insufficient such as targeting type malicious code. As a result of the study, we confirmed that the accuracy of 97% can be achieved even with a small amount of data by applying the Memory Augmented Neural Networks model.