• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.319-326
• /
• 2015

Recently in the fields o f stochastic optimal control ( SOC) and reinforcemnet l earning (RL), there have been a great deal of research efforts for the problem of finding data-based sub-optimal control policies. The conventional theory for finding optimal controllers via the value-function-based dynamic programming was established for solving the stochastic optimal control problems with solid theoretical background. However, they can be successfully applied only to extremely simple cases. Hence, the data-based modern approach, which tries to find sub-optimal solutions utilizing relevant data such as the state-transition and reward signals instead of rigorous mathematical analyses, is particularly attractive to practical applications. In this paper, we consider a couple of methods combining the modern SOC strategies and approximate inference together with machine-learning-based data treatment methods. Also, we apply the resultant methods to a variety of application domains including financial engineering, and observe their performance.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.14 no.7
• /
• pp.2752-2768
• /
• 2020

Phishing websites can have devastating effects on governmental, financial, and social services, as well as on individual privacy. Currently, many phishing detection solutions are evaluated using small datasets and, thus, are prone to sampling issues, such as representing legitimate websites by only high-ranking websites, which could make their evaluation less relevant in practice. Phishing detection solutions which depend only on the URL are attractive, as they can be used in limited systems, such as with firewalls. In this paper, we present a URL-only phishing detection solution based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) model. The proposed CNN takes the URL as the input, rather than using predetermined features such as URL length. For training and evaluation, we have collected over two million URLs in a massive URL phishing detection (MUPD) dataset. We split MUPD into training, validation and testing datasets. The proposed CNN achieves approximately 96% accuracy on the testing dataset; this accuracy is achieved with URL schemes (such as HTTP and HTTPS) removed from the URL. Our proposed solution achieved better accuracy compared to an existing state-of-the-art URL-only model on a published dataset. Finally, the results of our experiment suggest keeping the CNN up-to-date for better results in practice.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.65-82
• /
• 2021

Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

• 대한공업교육학회지
• /
• v.35 no.2
• /
• pp.1-24
• /
• 2010

The purpose of this study is to investigate provedly the effectiveness of the practice for the arts and crafts by machine for project based learning upon improving industrial high school students' key competency for vocation, and to provide the incumbent teachers and future teachers who want to conduct research, a similar study with the basic reference materials. The vocational key competencies interested in this study are communication ability, information usage skills, team work skills, problem solving skills, tool usage skills, and responsibility and confidence areas. Because the result of pre and post testing over these six areas has insignificant differences statistically, we reach a conclusion which project based learning is more effective than traditional practice methods at improving the vocational key competencies of industrial students. On the basis of the results of this study, I would like to suggest some kinds of things needed to improve the vocational key competencies of industrial high school students. First, we require the diverse research to investigate the best teaching and learning methods to cultivate people of ability with the vocational key competencies Second, it is required that to measure the extent of the improvement of the vocational key competencies of industrial high school students, we have to develop a more objective test tool than that used in this study. Third, in the light of facts that project based learning influences on improving the vocational key competencies of the industrial high school student, we will have to make an effort actively to find the best teaching and learning methods, like project based learning. Therefore, we need to give diverse training opportunities and financial support so that teachers can conduct research to find the best teaching and learning method at improving the vocational key competencies for industrial high school students.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.79-99
• /
• 2015

The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.25-38
• /
• 2022

With the diversification of payment methods and games, related financial accidents are causing serious problems for users and game companies. Recently, game companies have introduced an Fraud Detection System (FDS) for game payment systems to prevent financial incident. However, FDS is ineffective and cannot provide major evidence based on judgment results, as it requires constant change of detection patterns. In this paper, we analyze abnormal transactions among payment log data of real game companies to generate related features. One of the unsupervised learning models, Autoencoder, was used to build a model to detect abnormal transactions, which resulted in over 85% accuracy. Using X-FDS (Explainable FDS) with XAI-SHAP, we could understand that the variables with the highest explanation for anomaly detection were the amount of transaction, transaction medium, and the age of users. Based on X-FDS, we derive an improved detection model with an accuracy of 94% was finally derived by fine-tuning the importance of features that adversely affect the proposed model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.34 no.5
• /
• pp.745-760
• /
• 2021

Prediction of a stock price has been a subject of interest for a long time in financial markets, and thus, many studies have been conducted in various directions. As the efficient market hypothesis introduced in the 1970s acquired supports, it came to be the majority opinion that it was impossible to predict stock prices. However, recent advances in predictive models have led to new attempts to predict the future prices. Here, we summarize past studies on the price prediction by evaluation measures, and predict the direction of stock prices of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and NAVER by applying various machine learning models. In addition to widely used technical indicator variables, accounting indicators such as Price Earning Ratio and Price Book-value Ratio and outputs of the hidden Markov Model are used as predictors. From the results of our analysis, we conclude that no models show significantly better accuracy and it is not possible to predict the direction of stock prices with models used. Considering that the models with extra predictors show relatively high test accuracy, we may expect the possibility of a meaningful improvement in prediction accuracy if proper variables that reflect the opinions and sentiments of investors would be utilized.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.569-577
• /
• 2012

The analysis and management of business failure has been recognized to be important in the area of financial management in the evaluation of firms' performance and the assessment of their viability. To this end, effective failure-prediction models are needed. This paper describes a new approach to prediction of business failure using the total margin algorithm which is a kind of support vector machine. It will be shown that the proposed method can evaluate the risk of failure better than existing methods through some real data.

• The Journal of Information Systems
• /
• v.30 no.1
• /
• pp.65-84
• /
• 2021

Purpose Based on the development of artificial intelligence and big data technologies, the RegTech has been emerged to reduce regulatory costs and to enable efficient supervision by regulatory bodies. The word RegTech is a combination of regulation and technology, which means using the technological methods to facilitate the implementation of regulations and to make efficient surveillance and supervision of regulations. The purpose of this study is to describe the recent adoption of RegTech and to provide basic examples of applying RegTech to capital market regulations. Design/methodology/approach English-based ontology and deep learning technologies are quite developed in practice, and it will not be difficult to expand it to European or Latin American languages that are grammatically similar to English. However, it is not easy to use it in most Asian languages such as Korean, which have different grammatical rules. In addition, in the early stages of adoption, companies, financial institutions and regulators will not be familiar with this machine-based reporting system. There is a need to establish an ecosystem which facilitates the adoption of RegTech by consulting and supporting the stakeholders. In this paper, we provide a simple example that shows a procedure of applying RegTech to recognize and interpret Korean language-based capital market regulations. Specifically, we present the process of converting sentences in regulations into a meta-language through the morpheme analyses. We next conduct deep learning analyses to determine whether a regulatory sentence exists in each regulatory paragraph. Findings This study illustrates the applicability of RegTech-based ontology and deep learning technologies in Korean-based capital market regulations.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
• /
• 2007.11a
• /
• pp.283-286
• /
• 2007

This paper proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach to instance selection in case-based reasoning (CBR) for the prediction of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI). CBR has been widely used in various areas because of its convenience and strength in complex problem solving. Nonetheless, compared to other machine learning techniques, CBR has been criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. Generally, in order to obtain successful results from CBR, effective retrieval of useful prior cases for the given problem is essential. However, designing a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems is still a controversial research issue. In this paper, the GA optimizes simultaneously feature weights and a selection task for relevant instances for achieving good matching and retrieval in a CBR system. This study applies the proposed model to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the GA approach is a promising method for instance selection in CBR.