• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial losses

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Financial Stability of GCC Banks in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Simulation Approach

  • AL-KHARUSI, Sami;MURTHY, Sree Rama
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.337-344
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    • 2020
  • Stability and sustainability of the biggest banks in any country are extremely important. When big banks become unstable and vulnerable, they typically stop lending. The resulting credit squeeze pushes the economy into recession or a slow growth path. The present study examines the financial stability and sustainability of the 30 large banks operating in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. These banks represent 70% of the GCC banking market. Monte Carlo simulation was attempted assuming that key drivers can vary randomly by twenty percent on either side of the current values. The conclusions are drawn based on 300 simulation trails of the five-year forecast balance and income statement of each bank. Year 2020 is not favorable for the GCC countries because of the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices, though the future years may be better. The study identifies several banks, which may become financially unsustainable because the simulations indicate the possibility of negative profitability, unacceptably low capital ratios and potential for heavy credit losses during periods of economic turbulence, which is the current situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Through simulation the paper is able to throw light on which factors lead to bank instability and weakness.

Study on Proactive Approach against a New Large-Scale Crisis of the Aviation and Tourism Industry such as COVID-19

  • Park, Yun-mi;Jeon, Aeeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.176-181
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    • 2020
  • In the face of the unprecedented crisis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the aviation and tourism industry fell without help. The bigger problem is that a crisis like COVID-19 can always come back. A new variant of the virus that is more powerful than COVID-19 may emerge, and another crisis such as a massive war may come. In addition, there may be an unexpected large-scale crisis that could shake the survival of the aviation and tourism industry in place. At that time, the aviation and tourism industry should not be pushed into a survival crisis defenselessly. Taking the experience of the crisis caused by COVID-19 as a crucial lesson, sufficient protection measures should be prepared in advance, and within the protection measures, the overall capabilities of the aviation and tourism industry should be preserved, and preparation should be made for the aftermath of the crisis. There is a need to establish a support system in which financial resources that can be used in crisis situation can be secured in advance, and various support measures can be implemented as effectively as possible by using the secured financial resources. Regarding the preparation for financial resources, various fundraising, insurance, and compensation for losses by the state or local government may be considered as a priority, and in addition, there is a need to continuously consider ways to prepare additional financial resources. On the other hand, in terms of system construction, establishment of the system inside the aviation and tourism industry may need to be considered first, but the improvement of related laws and systems needs to be more actively discussed and related legislation needs to be actively promoted.

Study on Management Plan of the Financial Supervisory Service According to Increase of Risk of Household Debts (중소형증권사 Project-Financing 우발채무 확대에 따른 금융감독원 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, YunHong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2018
  • In 2018, the real estate markets have hardly been transacted according to the government's tight regulations of real estates, and have the high possibility to reach a low hit due to the hike of loan interest rates following the U. S rise of base money rate. The key profits for the large construction companies mainly come from the overseas plant projects and the domestic non-governmental construction projects. They suffered a lot such as the lowering of their credit ratings due to the large losses caused by the frquent design changes and work delay. Even in the domestic non-governmental construction projects, the general business risks are on the rise due to the property marketing moving over to the decreasing phase. The small and medium sized security companies has realized a lot of operaring profits as they participated in the PF market to make up for the losses in the securities trading business. But, now as the housing market is not so good around the nation except Seoul and the financial states of large construction companies are not good enough, they can face the liquidity crisis if there happens the problems in the PF backed securities which they have handled. As Korean economy experienced the crisis in the savings banks before, it is recommended that Financial Supervisory Service proposes the preemptive control method and supervision direction to overcome the crisis.

Losses of Indirect Use and Non-Use Values of Groundwater or Environmental Challenges in Terms of the Inaction Costs of OECD (OECD의 무대응 비용 관점에서 지하수 등 자연환경 재해의 간접사용가치 및 비사용가치 손상 비용 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young;Kim, Sun Geun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2013
  • OECD(2008) gives the concepts of inaction costs on key environmental challenges including: direct financial costs; total financial costs; total use costs; and total social welfare costs. In analyzing the losses of environmental goods' various values conducted by domestic and foreign researchers, this study suggests the value-cost category of OECD(2008) and other studies; and the indirect use and non-use values of groundwater and other natural environment using the concepts of inaction costs. The studies on the damages and their relationships among human, property, and ecosystem are essential to monetary valuation on the qualitative or quantitative degradation of groundwater and other natural environment.

FAIR-Based BIA for Ransomware Attacks in Financial Industry (금융 산업에서 발생하는 랜섬웨어 공격에 대한 FAIR 기반의 손실 측정 모델 분석)

  • Yoon, Hyun-sik;Song, Kyung-hwan;Lee, Kyung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.873-883
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    • 2017
  • As Ransomware spreads, the target of the attack shifted from a single personal to organizations which lead attackers to be more intelligent and systematic. Thus, Ransomware's threats to domestic infrastructure, including the financial industry, have grown to a level that cannot be ignored. As a measure against these security issues, organizations use ISMS, which is an information protection management system. However, it is difficult for management to make decisions on the loss done by the security issues since amount of the damage done can not be calculated with just ISMS. In this paper, through FAIR-based loss measurement model based on scenario's to identify the extent of damage and calculate the reasonable damages which has been considered to be the problem of the ISMS, we identified losses and risks of Ransomeware on the financial industry and method to reduce the loss by applying the current ISMS and ISO 27001 control items rather than modifying the ISMS.

A Study on Evaluation of Floor Response Spectrum for Seismic Design of Non-Structural Components (비구조요소의 내진 설계를 위한 기존 층응답스펙트럼의 평가)

  • Choi, Kyung Suk;Yi, Waon Ho;Yang, Won-Jik;Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.279-291
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    • 2013
  • The seismic damage of non-structural components, such as communication facilities, causes direct economic losses as well as indirect losses which result from social chaos occurring with downtime of communication and financial management network systems. The current Korean seismic code, KBC2009, prescribes the design criteria and requirements of non-structural components based on their elastic response. However, it is difficult for KBC to reflect the dynamic characteristics of structures where non-structural components exist. In this study, both linear and nonlinear time history analyses of structures with various analysis parameters were carried out and floor acceleration spectra obtained from analyses were compared with both ground acceleration spectra used for input records of the analyses and the design floor acceleration spectrum proposed by National Radio Research Agency. Also, this study investigates to find out the influence of structural dynamic characteristics on the floor acceleration spectra. The analysis results show that the acceleration amplification is observed due to the resonance phenomenon and such amplification increases with the increase of building heights and with the decrease of structure's energy dissipation capacities.

Implementation of Image Processing System for the Defect Inspection of Color Polyethylene (칼라팔레트의 불량 식별을 위한 영상처리 시스템 구현)

  • 김경민;박중조;송명현
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.1157-1162
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with inspect algorithm using visual system. One of the major problems that arise during polymer production is the estimation of the noise of the color product.(bad pallets) An erroneous output can cause a lot of losses (production and financial losses). Therefore new methods for real-time inspection of the noise are demanded. For this reason, we have presented a development of vision system algorithm for the defect inspection of PE color pallets. First of all, in order to detect the edge of object, the differential filter is used. And we apply to the labelling algorithm for feature extraction. This algorithm is designed for the defect inspection of pallets. The labelling algorithm permits to separate all of the connected components appearing on the pallets. Labelling the connected regions of a image is a fundamental computation in image analysis and machine vision, with a large number of application. Also, we suggested vision processing program in window environment. Simulations and experimental results demonstrate the performance of the proposal algorithm.

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Implementation of Vision System for the Defect Inspection of Color Polyethylene (칼라 팔레트의 불량 검사를 위한 비전 시스템 구현)

  • 김경민;강종수;박중조;송명현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.587-591
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with inspect algorithm using visual system. One of the major problems that arise during polymer production is the estimation of the noise of the color product.(bad pallets) An erroneous output can cause a lot of losses (production and financial losses). Therefore new methods for real-time inspection of the noise are demanded. For this reason, we have presented a development of vision system algorithm for the defect inspection of PE color pallets. First of all, in order to detect the edge of object, the differential filter is used. And we apply to the labelling algorithm for feature extraction. This algorithm is designed for the defect inspection of pallets. The labelling algorithm permits to separate all of the connected components appearing on the pallets. Labelling the connected regions of a image is a fundamental computation in image analysis and machine vision, with a large number of application. Also, we suggested vision processing program in window environment. Simulations and experimental results demonstrate the performance of the proposal algorithm.

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Extreme Quantile Estimation of Losses in KRW/USD Exchange Rate (원/달러 환율 투자 손실률에 대한 극단분위수 추정)

  • Yun, Seok-Hoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.803-812
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    • 2009
  • The application of extreme value theory to financial data is a fairly recent innovation. The classical annual maximum method is to fit the generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maxima of a data series. An alterative modern method, the so-called threshold method, is to fit the generalized Pareto distribution to the excesses over a high threshold from the data series. A more substantial variant is to take the point-process viewpoint of high-level exceedances. That is, the exceedance times and excess values of a high threshold are viewed as a two-dimensional point process whose limiting form is a non-homogeneous Poisson process. In this paper, we apply the two-dimensional non-homogeneous Poisson process model to daily losses, daily negative log-returns, in the data series of KBW/USD exchange rate, collected from January 4th, 1982 until December 31 st, 2008. The main question is how to estimate extreme quantiles of losses such as the 10-year or 50-year return level.

A Intelligent Diagnostic Model that base on Case-Based Reasoning according to Korea - International Financial Reporting Standards (K-IFRS에 따른 사례기반추론에 기반한 지능형 기업 진단 모형)

  • Lee, Hyoung-Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2014
  • The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is the one of important issues in the recent accounting research because the change from local GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) to IFRS has a substantial effect on accounting information. Over 100 countries including Australia, China, Canada and the European Union member countries adopt IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for financial reporting purposes, and several more including the United States and Japan are considering the adoption of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). In Korea, 61 firms voluntarily adopted Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) in 2009 and 2010 and all listed firms mandatorily adopted K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards) in 2011. The adoption of IFRS is expected to increase financial statement comparability, improve corporate transparency, increase the quality of financial reporting, and hence, provide benefits to investors This study investigates whether recognized accounts receivable discounting (AR discounting) under Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) is more value relevant than disclosed AR discounting under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP). Because more rigorous standards are applied to the derecognition of AR discounting under K-IFRS(Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), most AR discounting is recognized as a short term debt instead of being disclosed as a contingent liability unless all risks and rewards are transferred. In this research, I try to figure out industrial responses to the changes in accounting rules for the treatment of accounts receivable toward more strict standards in the recognition of sales which occurs with the adoption of Korea International Financial Reporting Standard. This study examines whether accounting information is more value-relevant, especially information on accounts receivable discounting (hereinafter, AR discounting) is value-relevant under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards). First, note that AR discounting involves the transfer of financial assets. Under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP), when firms discount AR to banks before the AR maturity, firms conventionally remove AR from the balance-sheet and report losses from AR discounting and disclose and explain the transactions in the footnotes. Under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), however, most firms keep AR and add a short-term debt as same as discounted AR. This process increases the firms' leverage ratio and raises the concern to the firms about investors' reactions to worsening capital structures. Investors may experience the change in perceived risk of the firm. In the study sample, the average of AR discounting is 75.3 billion won (maximum 3.6 trillion won and minimum 18 million won), which is, on average 7.0% of assets (maximum 38.6% and minimum 0.002%), 26.2% of firms' accounts receivable (maximum 92.5% and minimum 0.003%) and 13.5% of total liabilities (maximum 69.5% and minimum 0.004%). After the adoption of K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), total liabilities increase by 13%p on average (maximum 103%p and minimum 0.004%p) attributable to AR discounting. The leverage ratio (total liabilities/total assets) increases by an average 2.4%p (maximum 16%p and minimum 0.001%p) and debt-to-equity ratio increases by average 14.6%p (maximum 134%p and minimum 0.006%) attributable to the recognition of AR discounting as a short-term debt. The structure of debts and equities of the companies engaging in factoring transactions are likely to be affected in the changes of accounting rule. I suggest that the changes in accounting provisions subsequent to Korea International Financial Reporting Standard adoption caused significant influence on the structure of firm's asset and liabilities. Due to this changes, the treatment of account receivable discounting have become critical. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic system for estimating negative impact on stock value with self-organizing maps and case based reasoning. To validate the usefulness of this proposed model, real data was analyzed. In order to get the significance of this proposed model, several models were compared to the research model. I found out that this proposed model provides satisfactory results with compared models.