• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial losses

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An Information-based Forecasting Model for Project Progress and Completion Using Bayesian Inference

  • Yoo, Wi-Sung;Hadipriono, Fabian C.
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2007
  • In the past, several construction projects have exceeded their schedule resulting in financial losses to the owners; at present there are very few methods available to accurately forecast the completion date of a project. These nay be because of unforeseen outcomes that cannot be accounted for earlier and because of deficiency of proper tools to forecast completion date of said project. To overcome these difficulties, project managers may need a tool to predict the completion date at the early stage of project development. Bayesian Inference introduced in this paper is one such tool that can be employed to forecast project progress at all construction stages. Using this inference, project managers can combine an initially planned project progress (growth curve) with reported information from ongoing projects during the development, and in addition, dynamically revise this initial plan and quantify the uncertainty of completion date. This study introduces a theoretical model and proposes a mathematically information-based framework to forecast a project completion date that corresponds with the actual progress data and to monitor the modified uncertainties using Bayesian Inference.

Detection of Incipient Faults in Induction Motors using FIS, ANN and ANFIS Techniques

  • Ballal, Makarand S.;Suryawanshi, Hiralal M.;Mishra, Mahesh K.
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.181-191
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    • 2008
  • The task performed by induction motors grows increasingly complex in modern industry and hence improvements are sought in the field of fault diagnosis. It is essential to diagnose faults at their very inception, as unscheduled machine down time can upset critical dead lines and cause heavy financial losses. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have proved their ability in detection of incipient faults in electrical machines. This paper presents an application of AI techniques for the detection of inter-turn insulation and bearing wear faults in single-phase induction motors. The single-phase induction motor is considered a proto type model to create inter-turn insulation and bearing wear faults. The experimental data for motor intake current, rotor speed, stator winding temperature, bearing temperature and noise of the motor under running condition was generated in the laboratory. The different types of fault detectors were developed based upon three different AI techniques. The input parameters for these detectors were varied from two to five sequentially. The comparisons were made and the best fault detector was determined.

Separation of VOCs from Air through Composite Membranes Prepared by Plasma Polymerization of Hexamethyldisiioxane (Hexamethyldisiioxane의 플라즈마 중합에 의하여 제조된 복합막을 통한 공기중의 휘발성 유기물질의 분리에 관한 연구)

  • 류동현;오세중;손우익;구자경
    • Proceedings of the Membrane Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.63-65
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    • 1998
  • 1. Introduction : Atmospheric discharge of VOC-contaminated streams in chemical plants and air streams from chemical processes poses a serious environmental problem and entails large financial losses. Such emissions may be reduced by i) adsorption process, ii) absorption process and iii) incineration process. These processes only forbids the air pollutions. Throughout the recent decade, another technique-membrane process has emerged. The separation and recovery of organic vapors by membrane process may have great economic potential. Most of the published research works on the separation of organic vapors from air were performed using silicon rubber membranes. However, it is very difficult to fabricate very thin membranes with less than 1 $u m thickness. Plasma polymerization could be a good technique to generate a thin polymer film. The objective of this work is to find out the optimum condition of plasma polymerization for producing VOC separation membrane. For the objective, composite membranes are prepared through plasma polymerization of hexamethyldisiloxane onto porous substrates under different conditions. The membrane is then subjected to the permeation of permanent gases and VOCs to find the correlations between the physical properties of the penetrant and permeability and selectivity.

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The Research of Korea Physical Therapy Charge (우리나라 물리치료 수가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Su;Shim, Je-Myung;Park, Sung-Su;Han, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.173-182
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : This study aims to figure out problems in Korea's physical therapy, how to improve it, and the need for it by examining the nation's physical therapy charges. Methods : This study was performed based on materials from the National Health Insurance Corporation, Korean academic theses, and domestic medical charge system. Results : The number of patients with physical therapy stood at around 17,764,428 in 2008, and then has gradually rose to 3 out of 100,000 citizens. The National Health Insurance Charge System based on relative values, which has been applied since 2001, is not desirable in that it is increasing patients' financial burden. Also, in deciding the amount of work carried out by physical therapists, their amount of input time, efforts, labor, and stress from their patients were not considered and the false relative value system has made patients pay more. Conclusion : Korean medical insurance charges and the overall system should be improved, so that physical therapists can perform specialized services of global physical therapy and service receiving patients do not incur losses.

A study on the Problematic and Effective Framework of the National Aquatic Animal Health Management and Legislation in Korea (수산생물질병에 대한 국가관리체제의 문제점과 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Go
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.218-226
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    • 2004
  • During the last two decades, the rapid increase in aquaculture world wide, particularly in finfish and shellfish culture, is the result of both area expansion and production intensification. Under these conditions, the prevalence and spread of infectious diseases have increased as a result of higher infection pressure and decreased resistance of the aquatic animals. Accordingly, the effective control of infectious diseases has become more and more important to development of aquaculture. Recently the Pathology Team of National Fisheries Research and Development(NFRDI), has played pivotal roles in establishing the national management and control system of aquatic animal health and disease by new legislative works and technical guidelines. Under the national aquatic animal disease control framework, the Pathology Team of NFRDI and MOMAF(Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries) should also establish effective management and regulations, with the support of enforcement and monitoring policies. In conjunction with effective aquatic disease national management, financial assistance or alternative compensation options for aquaculture should also be available in the event of production losses or eradication system.

Optimal Capital Adequacy Ratios for Commercial Banks: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • LUONG, Thi Minh Nhi;NGUYEN, Phuong Anh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2021
  • It is unavoidable for businesses, especially commercial banks, to compete with other firms and financial institutions in a globalized and internationalized world. Basel I, II, and III were developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision with the primary purpose of supporting banks in dealing with potential risks and enhancing their ability to absorb losses. Basel II and III require the minimum capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 8% and 10.5%, respectively. This paper estimates the optimal CAR of 26 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2016 to 2020 using the two-stage DEA method. According to the empirical findings, banks with ideal CARs exceeding 8% (as defined by Basel II) and 10.5 percent (as defined by Basel III) account for approximately 98 percent and 88 percent of all banks, respectively. Furthermore, 75.83 percent of all banks need to boost their existing CAR to achieve the optimal level of CAR as well as obtain the best performance. On average, the optimal CAR of state-owned banks is higher than other joint-stock banks, respectively 26 percent and 19 percent. Consequently, it is recommended for Vietnam commercial banks to reach optimal CAR and comply with the new policy set by Basel III with the purpose of approaching the efficient frontier.

Triggering of Herding Instincts due to COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan Stock Exchange

  • JABEEN, Shaista;RIZAVI, Sayyid Salman;NASIR, Adeel
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.207-218
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    • 2021
  • The present research intends to examine the herding aspect during the COVID-19 outbreak. The study is conducted to achieve specific objectives, so the underlying sampling technique is purposive sampling. The considered data source is the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Daily stock prices of 528 listed companies in PSX have been taken from the official website of PSX from 1998 to 2021. The current study envisions investigating the herding aspects for pre-pandemic and the time covering the pandemic period. The study has also targeted ten sectors of PSX. The present study's motive is to investigate investors' herding prospects before and during the pandemic in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and its selected sectors. Daily closing stock prices of listed companies have been collected from the official website of PSX to calculate the stock returns. The Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) has been used as a herding measure. Findings revealed that herding has not been observed in PSX during both time spans and even not during the bullish and bearish trends. However, robust sectoral evidence has been observed during the pandemic. It implies that investors in PSX tend to follow the crowd irrespective of making their own decisions to avoid further losses.

A Study on the Effects and Adaptation of Climate Change in Insurance Industry (보험업의 기후변화 영향과 적응에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Sang Wook
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to screen for the effects of climate change and climate change adaptation in the insurance industry. There is now a consensus that the climate is changing, with potential risk to the global economy and human health and so on. On the other hand, unknown is the extent to which insurance business pattern have already been affected. But the increase in damage due to climate change is likely to raise insurance company losses. In this regard, I conduct especially an effects of the insurance industry on climate change. And than, I analyzed what insurance companies would do to lessen the impact of climate change. As a result, the impact of climate change on the insurance industry is a huge increases in claims due to disasters and diseases arising from climate change. And another thing is growth in climate change-related legislation, regulations and reporting requirements such as financial soundness regulation and climate change risk disclosure. Therefore, the insurance industry needs to build a climate change adaptation strategies include capital raising, liquidity of assets, faithful debt management and so forth.

Epidemiologic Trends and Seasonality of Scabies in South Korea, 2010-2017

  • Kim, Jong-Hun;Cheong, Hae-Kwan
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.399-404
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    • 2019
  • Scabies is a parasitic skin infection with intense itching. Scabies infection seriously impairs quality of life, while outbreaks in medical institutions cause financial losses. This study aimed to present the annual and seasonal trend of prevalence of scabies in the national population. Scabies cases were extracted from National Health Insurance Service database and its epidemiologic characteristics were assessed. To analyze the seasonality of scabies occurrence, temperature and humidity were included in the model as weather factors, and the per capita gross national income index was adjusted. The annual prevalence by age group was 0.56-0.69 per 1,000 persons until the age of 40 years and peaked at 3.0-4.1 per 1,000 persons in the age group over 80 years. The number of women diagnosed with scabies has been consistently higher compared to that of men since 2010. Mean number of cases diagnosed as scabies was lowest in spring, approximately 4,000 cases, when the average temperature was less than $5^{\circ}C$ at 2 months prior, whereas more than 6,000 scabies cases occurred in autumn when temperatures exceeded $25^{\circ}C$ at 2 months prior. This study presents the epidemiological characteristics and seasonality of all cases nationwide over 8 years and will help to establish control policies.

Seismic Fragility of Steel Piping System Based on Pipe Size, Coupling Type, and Wall Thickness

  • Ju, Bu Seog;Gupta, Abhinav;Ryu, Yonghee
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1200-1209
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a probabilistic framework of the damage assessment of pipelines subjected to extreme hazard scenario was developed to mitigate the risk and enhance design reliability. Nonlinear 3D finite element models of T-joint systems were developed based on experimental tests with respect to leakage detection of black iron piping systems, and a damage assessment analysis of the vulnerability of their components according to nominal pipe size, coupling type, and wall thickness under seismic wave propagations was performed. The analysis results showed the 2-inch schedule 40 threaded T-joint system to be more fragile than the others with respect to the nominal pipe sizes. As for the coupling types, the data indicated that the probability of failure of the threaded T-joint coupling was significantly higher than that of the grooved type. Finally, the seismic capacity of the schedule 40 wall thickness was weaker than that of schedule 10 in the 4-inch grooved coupling, due to the difference in the prohibition of energy dissipation. Therefore, this assessment can contribute to the damage detection and financial losses due to failure of the joint piping system in a liquid pipeline, prior to the decision-making.