• Title/Summary/Keyword: fall precipitation

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Spatio-Temporal Incidence Modeling and Prediction of the Vector-Borne Disease Using an Ecological Model and Deep Neural Network for Climate Change Adaption (기후 변화 적응을 위한 벡터매개질병의 생태 모델 및 심층 인공 신경망 기반 공간-시간적 발병 모델링 및 예측)

  • Kim, SangYoun;Nam, KiJeon;Heo, SungKu;Lee, SunJung;Choi, JiHun;Park, JunKyu;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.197-208
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    • 2020
  • This study was carried out to analyze spatial and temporal incidence characteristics of scrub typhus and predict the future incidence of scrub typhus since the incidences of scrub typhus have been rapidly increased among vector-borne diseases. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological model was implemented to predict spatial distribution and incidence rate of scrub typhus using spatial data sets on environmental and social variables. Additionally, relationships between the incidence of scrub typhus and critical spatial data were analyzed. Elevation and temperature were analyzed as dominant spatial factors which influenced the growth environment of Leptotrombidium scutellare (L. scutellare) which is the primary vector of scrub typhus. A temporal number of diseases by scrub typhus was predicted by a deep neural network (DNN). The model considered the time-lagged effect of scrub typhus. The DNN-based prediction model showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity in summer had significant influence factors on the activity of L. scutellare and the number of diseases at fall. Moreover, the DNN-based prediction model had superior performance compared to a conventional statistical prediction model. Finally, the spatial and temporal models were used under climate change scenario. The future characteristics of scrub typhus showed that the maximum incidence rate would increase by 8%, areas of the high potential of incidence rate would increase by 9%, and disease occurrence duration would expand by 2 months. The results would contribute to the disease management and prediction for the health of residents in terms of public health.

Hydrogeochemical Research on the Characteristic of Chemical Weathering in a Granitic Gatchment (水文化學的 資料를 통한 花崗岩質 流域의 化學的 風化特性에 關한 硏究)

  • Park, Soo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1993
  • This research aims to investigate some respects of chemical weathering processes, espcially the amount of solute leaching, formation of clay minerals, and the chemical weathering rate of granite rocks under present climatic conditions. For this purpose, I investigated geochemical mass balance in a small catchment and the mineralogical composition of weathered bedrocks including clay mineral assemblages at four res-pective sites along one slope. The geochemical mass blance for major elements of rock forming minerals was calculated from precipitation and streamwater data which are measured every week for one year. The study area is a climatically and litholo-gically homogeneous small catchment($3.62Km^2$)in Anyang-shi, Kyounggi-do, Korea. The be-drock of this area id Anyang Granite which is composed of coarse-giained, pink-colored miner-als. Main rock forming minerals are quartz, K-Feldspar, albite, and muscovite. One of the chracteristics of this granite rock is that its amount of Ca and Mg is much lower than other granite rock. The leaching pattern in the weathering profiles is in close reltion to the geochemical mass balance. Therefore the removal or accumulation of dissolved materials shows weathering patterns of granite in the Korean peninsula. Oversupplied ions into the drainage basin were $H^+$, $K^+$, Fe, and Mn, whereas $Na^2+$, $Mg^2+$, $Ca^2+$, Si, Al and $HCO-3^{-}$ were removed from the basin by the stream. The consumption of hydrogen ion in the catchment implies the hydrolysis of minerals. The surplus of $K^+$ reflects that vegetation is in the aggravation stage, and the nutrient cycle of the forest in study area did not reach a stable state. And it can be also presumed that the accumulation of $K^+$ in the top soil is related to the surplus of $K^+$. Oversupplied Fe and Mn were presumed to accumulate in soil by forming metallic oxide and hydroxide. In the opposite, the removal of $Na^+$, Si, Al resulted from the chemical weathering of albite and biotite, and the amount of removal of $Na^+$, Si, Al reflected the weathering rate of the bedrock. But $Ca^2+$ and $Mg^2+$ in stream water were contaminated by the scattered calcareous structures over the surface. Kaolinite is a stable clay mineral under the present environment by the thermodynamical analysis of the hydrogeochemical data and Tardy's Re value. But this result was quite different from the real assemblage of clay miner-als in soil and weathered bedrock. This differ-ence can be explained by the microenvironment in the weathering profile and the seasonal variation of climatic factors. There are different clay forming environments in the stydy area and these differences originate from the seasonal variation of climate, especially the flushing rate in the weathering profile. As it can be known from the results of the analysis of thermodynamic stability and characteristics of geochemical mas balance, the climate during winter and fall, when it is characterized by the low flushing rate and high solute influx, shows the environmental characteristics to from 2:1 clay minerals, such as illite, smectite, vermiculite and mixed layer clay minerals which are formed by neoformation or transformation from the primary or secondary minerals. During the summer and spring periods, kaoli-nite is a stable forming mineral. However it should consider that the other clay minerals can transformed into kaolinite or other clay minerals, because these periods have a high flushing rte and temperature. Materials which are directly regulated by chemical weathering in the weathered bedrock are $Na^+$, Si, and Al. The leaching of Al is, however, highly restricted and used to form a clay mineral, and that of Si falls under the same category. $Na^+$ is not taked up by growing veget ation, and fixed in the weathering profile by forming secondary minerals. Therefore the budget of $Na^+$ is a good indicator for the chemical weathering rate in the study area. The amount of chemical weathering of granite rocks was about 31.31g/$m^2+$/year based on $Na^+$ estimation.

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Evaluation of Community Land Model version 3.5-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model over Deciduous Forest in Gwangneung, Korea (광릉 활엽수림에서 Community Land Model 3.5-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model의 평가)

  • Lim, Hee-Jeong;Lee, Young-Hee;Kwon, Hyo-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2010
  • The performance of Community Land Model version 3.5 - Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM) was evaluated through a comparison with the observation over temperate deciduous forest in Gwangneung, Korea. Influence of plant phenology, composition of plant functional type, and climate variability on carbon exchanges was also examined through sensitivity test. To get equilibrium carbon storage, the model was run for 400 years driven by the observed atmospheric data at the deciduous forest of the year 2006. We run the model for 2006 with the equilibrium carbon storage at Gwangneung forest and compared the model output with the observation. A comparison of leaf area index (LAI) between the model and observation indicated that the simulated phenology poorly represented the timing of budburst, leaf-fall, and evolution of LAI. Senescence of the phenology was delayed about four weeks and the simulated maximum LAI (of 5.8 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$) was greater than the observed value (of 4.5 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$). The overestimated LAI contributed to overestimation of both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration $(R_e)$ through increased photosynthesis and foliar autotropic respiration $(R_a)$, respectively. Despite the discrepancy between the simulated and observed LAI, the simulated tree carbon storage amounts were comparable with the reported values at the site. Change in plant phenology from the simulated to the observed reduced more than six weeks of the plant growth period, resulting in the decreased amount of GPP and $R_e$. These values, however, were still higher (~10% of GPP and 40% of $R_e$) than the observed values. The effect of change in plant functional type composition (from dominant temperate deciduous forest to the coexistence of temperate deciduous and needle leaf forests) on the estimated amount of GPP and $R_e$ was marginal. The influence of climate variability on carbon storage amounts was not significant. The simulated inter-annual variation of GPP and $R_e$ from 1994 to 2003 depended on annual mean air temperature and total radiation but not on precipitation. Other deficiencies of CLM3.5-DGVM have been discussed.

Cultivation of Ginseng in Baengnyeongdo, the Northernmost Island of the Yellow Sea in South Korea (서해 최북단 섬 백령도의 인삼 재배 현황)

  • Cho, Dae-Hui
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.4
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    • pp.128-141
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    • 2022
  • Baengnyeongdo Island, which belongs to Ongjin-gun, Incheon, is an island in the northernmost part of the West Sea in South Korea. Baengnyeong Island is the 15th largest island in Korea and covers an area of 51 km2. The Korea Ginseng Corporation (KGC) investigated the possibility of growing ginseng on Baengnyeong Island in 1996. In 1997, thanks to the support of cultivation costs from Ongjin-gun, the first ginseng seedbed was built on Baengnyeong Island. In 1999, the seedlings were transplanted to a permanent field under a contract with KGC. In 2003, the first six-year-old ginseng harvest was performed, and KGC purchased all production according to the contract. Since then, KGC has signed on to grow ginseng until 2012 and purchased six-year-old ginseng until the fall of 2016. Since 2014, the GimpoPaju Ginseng Agricultural Cooperative Association has signed a ginseng production contract. According to a survey of nine 6-year-old ginseng fields (total 5,961 units) on Baengnyeong Island, the top five with good growth had a survival rate of 42.6 to 68%, and the bottom four with poor growth had an extremely low survival rate of 11.1 to 21.3%. The four fields with low survival rates were where hot peppers were planted before ginseng cultivation. It is believed that the excess nitrogen remaining in the soil due to the treatment of compost or manure during pepper cultivation causes ginseng roots to rot. The average incidence of Alternaria blight was 8.6%. Six six-year-old ginseng gardens were low at 1.1 to 4.7%, while the other three were high at 16.7 to 20.9%. It is assumed that the reason for the low survival rate and high incidence of Alternaria blight is a rain-leaking shield. Farmers used rain-leaking shields because the precipitation on Baengnyeong Island was smaller than on land. One field showed 3% of leaves with yellowish brown spots, a symptom of physiological disturbance of the leaf, which is presumed to be due to the excessive presence of iron in the soil. To increase the production of ginseng on Baengnyeong Island, it is necessary to develop a suitable ginseng cultivation method for the island, such as strengthening the field management based on the results of a scientific study of soil, using rain-resistant shading, and installing drip irrigation facilities. I hope that ginseng will become a new driving force for the development of Baengnyeong Island, allowing ginseng products and food to thrive in the beautiful natural environment of the island.

Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망)

  • Lee, Cheol;Boo, Kyung-On;Hong, Jinkyu;Seong, Hyunmin;Heo, Tae-kyung;Seol, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Johan;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2014
  • Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.